Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of USD/CAD Commodity Currency Pairs, Wednesday, September 20 2023

From the 4-hour chart of The Lonnie, it can be clearly seen that Sellers are very dominant, this can be seen from the price movement which moves regularly and harmoniously in the Pitchfork channel which dips downwards and the price movement is below the WMA (20) with a downward sloping slope as well as the CCI indicator has succeeded breaking below the three main levels (100, 0, & -100), but currently it appears that USD/CAD is being corrected upwards to test the SBR (support Become Resistance) level at the level 1.3494. As long as this upward correction does not breaks and close above the level 1.3550, then USD/CAD has the potential to continue its decline back to level 1.3422 as the main target and level 1.3380 as the second target if momentum and volatility support it.

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GBPUSD Day | Bouncing off support?

The GBP/USD chart shows a bearish trend, with focus on the 1st support at 1.2089, significant due to the convergence of the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension and the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement. The 2nd support is at 1.1845, a historical swing low. On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is at 1.2311, a pullback resistance aligned with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, serving as a potential barrier.

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What are the chances of another Bank of England rate hike in November?

In order to understand how the Bank of England is going to act at the remaining two meetings in 2023, we need to consider its potential for raising interest rates. The first and most crucial indicator that the central bank (and the markets) has been relying on for some time is inflation. However, as of September, inflation remains extremely high, well above the target level. One might assume that the BoE will continue to hike rates, but in September, it took a pause. A pause can only mean two things: either the BoE is preparing to end the tightening process, or it has already completed it.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and some other members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee have mentioned that they expect inflation to drop to 5% by the end of the year. A 5% inflation rate is still very high, 2.5 times above the target. If the BoE is already prepared to conclude its tightening, it may not achieve the target. Furthermore, there's no guarantee that inflation won't start accelerating again. For instance, US inflation has been rising for the past two months. All I want to convey with these arguments is that it's still too early to assume that inflation can return to 2% at the current interest rate level.

Based on that, I believe that the BoE has exhausted its potential for rate hikes, and this is the main reason for the pause in September. Now, the central bank will only raise rates if inflation starts to accelerate significantly. And in that case, the 2% target may be forgotten for several years even with a peak rate, but we could still see 1-2 more emergency rate hikes.

I also want to note that the BoE (like the European Central Bank) is counting on holding rates at the peak level for an extended period to bring inflation back to 2%. This was mentioned after last week's meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee expects inflation to slow down further, but Bailey says cutting rates would be "very premature". Four out of nine committee members voted for a rate hike at the previous meeting. In addition, the Monetary Policy Committee said its balance sheet of government debt will shrink by £100 billion.

Based on the analysis conducted, I came to the conclusion that a downward wave pattern is being formed. I still believe that targets in the 1.0500-1.0600 range for the downtrend are quite feasible, especially since they are quite near. Therefore, I will continue to sell the instrument. Since the downward wave did not end near the 1.0637 level, we can expect the pair to fall to the 1.05 level and slightly below. However, the second corrective wave will start sooner or later.

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline within the downtrend. At most, the British pound can expect the formation of wave 2 or b in the near future. However, even with a corrective wave, there are still significant challenges. At this time, I would remain cautious about selling, as there may be a corrective upward wave forming in the near future, but for now we have not seen any signals for this wave yet.

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USDCHF H4 | Falling to support level?

The USD/CHF chart currently has bearish momentum, aiming for the 1st support at 0.9104, supported by the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement. The 2nd support at 0.8987, coinciding with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, provides additional price support. On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 0.9211 and 2nd resistance at 0.9326 may limit upward moves.

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GBPUSD H4 | Bouncing off support?

The GBP/USD chart is currently bearish, primarily due to its position below the bearish Ichimoku cloud. There's a potential scenario of a bullish bounce off the 1st support at 1.2067, supported by the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, and the 2nd support at 1.2011, a swing low support with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.2124 is an overlap resistance that may impede bullish movements. Additionally, the 2nd resistance at 1.2265 is also categorized as an overlap resistance.

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USDJPY H4 | Bearish Continueation Expected?

The USD/JPY chart currently exhibits bearish momentum due to its position below the Ichimoku cloud. There's a potential bearish scenario with the 1st support at 148.44, a pullback support, and the 2nd support at 147.26, an overlap support. On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 149.98, a swing high resistance, may limit upward movements.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 9, 2023

EUR/USD
Friday's US labor data for September exceeded expectations. In the non-farm sector, 336,000 new jobs were created compared to a forecast of 170,000, and the August figure was raised by 40,000. Unemployment remained at the previous 3.8%, and a broader measure of unemployment dropped to 7.0% from 7.1% in August. The initial market reaction was quite natural, with the dollar rising and the euro losing 80 pips. However, the dollar was sold off across a wide range of markets, including stock markets and commodities. As a result, the dollar index closed the day down by 0.26%, the S&P 500 rose 1.18%, and oil increased by 0.61% (WTI).

The market's counteraction to strong data is certainly a compelling argument in favor of further (although not very prolonged) euro growth. From a technical standpoint, we saw a rebound from the point of intersection of the price channel line and support level of 1.0483, afterwards the quote exceeded the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0578. The Marlin oscillator has moved into bullish territory. Now, after breaking through the nearest resistance level at 1.0613, we are waiting for the price to reach the target level of 1.0687 and maybe even 1.0777.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above 1.0578. The morning gap that occurred due to the Hamas attack on Israel will soon be closed. The price is growing above the indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has firmly strengthened in the bullish territory. We expect the euro to rise further.

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NZDUSD H4 I Bearish momentum

The NZD/USD chart currently exhibits an overall bearish momentum with a potential scenario for price to make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st resistance level at 0.6050 is identified as an overlap resistance. Additionally, the 2nd resistance level at 0.6095 is marked as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci extension level.

To the downside, the 1st support level at 0.5989 is identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level. Further below, the 2nd support level at 0.5934 is noted as a pullback support.

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GBPUSD H4 I Bullish Momentum?

GBP/USD bears momentum, possibly falling to 1st support at 1.2259 (overlap support) or 2nd support at 1.2176 (overlap support). On the upside, 1st resistance at 1.2337 (swing high, 127.20% Fibonacci Extension) and 2nd resistance at 1.2418 (swing high, 161.80% Fibonacci Extension) may hinder upward movement.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: bullish counterattack failed

The report on American inflation for September brought the "bulls" on EUR/USD back down to earth. In annual terms, the CPI grew at the same pace as in August, at 3.7%. Core inflation, as expected, slowed down to 4.1%. However, the monthly data convinced investors that it's still too early to close the door to a federal funds rate increase to 5.75%. The likelihood of such an outcome in December jumped from 28% to 40%, and the dollar and Treasury bond yields once again rose in unison. Dynamics of U.S. core inflation

In October, Federal Reserve officials began discussing how the rally in debt rates had tightened financial conditions. In other words, the bond market had done part of the central bank's job. Investors interpreted this rhetoric as a signal that the monetary tightening cycle was coming to an end. CME derivatives implied a 91% probability of maintaining the federal funds rate in November and 72% in December.

Furthermore, discussions about a dovish pivot have resumed in the Forex market. BNP Paribas, in particular, noted that for the federal funds rate to remain at 5.5%, inflation would have to remain flat for a long time. If it slows down as rapidly as it has in the past, the chances of the Fed easing monetary policy in 2024 will increase dramatically.

The U.S. inflation report for September has made significant corrections to this theory. Consumer prices do not necessarily have to slow down; they could accelerate. As a result, the theme of monetary policy divergence, which underpins the downward trend in EUR/USD, has returned to the market.
Indeed, the minutes of the latest European Central Bank meeting expressed concerns about the state of the Eurozone's GDP. It is difficult to bring inflation back to the 2% target without causing significant harm to the economy. The ECB now believes that the risks of overdoing monetary policy tightening outweigh the risks of doing too little and letting the inflation genie out of the bottle again. The regulator noted that inflation expectations are anchored. This is another piece of evidence supporting the end of the monetary tightening cycle.

Indeed, the minutes of the latest European Central Bank meeting expressed concerns about the state of the Eurozone's GDP. It is difficult to bring inflation back to the 2% target without causing significant harm to the economy. The ECB now believes that the risks of overdoing monetary policy tightening outweigh the risks of doing too little and letting the inflation genie out of the bottle again. The regulator noted that inflation expectations are anchored. This is another piece of evidence supporting the end of the monetary tightening cycle.

Dynamics of European inflation expectations

Therefore, the bears for EUR/USD have played the old but effective card of divergence in monetary policy. Markets do not rule out the possibility of a federal funds rate hike and are practically certain of a deposit rate ceiling of 4% at the ECB. Along with the divergence in economic growth between the U.S. and the Eurozone, this driver could push the main currency pair towards 1.02, if not parity.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD daily chart is currently implementing the Holy Grail strategy. Unsuccessful attempts by the bulls to establish themselves above the red EMA and the fair value indicate their weakness. A return to the breakout bar's low near the 1.0575 level is usually used for forming short positions. As long as the pair trades below this level, the focus is on selling.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 18, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro settled above the target level of 1.0552. The Marlin oscillator is also in the positive territory. Now, the price needs to gather strength to overcome the strong resistance level at 1.0613, as at the anticipated breakout point, the level intersects with the Fibonacci Fan line.

Breaching this level opens the next target at 1.0687. This level is also strong because the MACD indicator line is approaching it. This will determine the euro's direction in the medium-term - either a breakout with subsequent target realization, as indicated on the daily chart, or a reversal towards 1.02. On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD indicator line, but the attempt to break above the balance line was unsuccessful.

The Marlin oscillator is in the uptrend territory, so we expect the price to try and break above the balance line. Without the price consolidating above the balance line, which requires an impulsive initial rise, overcoming the 1.0613 resistance will be extremely challenging.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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