Forecast for EUR/USD on January 15, 2020

EUR /USD
The dollar slightly strengthened on Tuesday, with the release of inflation data for the United States, but investors found the data not sufficient enough for a more decisive offensive. As a result, the euro showed a decline of only five points by the close of the day. The basic consumer price index added 0.1% for December against the expected 0.2%, while maintaining an annual value of 2.3%.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves sideways directly along the boundary of the bullish and bearish trends, which creates the risk of continued correctional growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1155. If the potential is not realized, a planned decrease to the Fibonacci level of 123.6% will follow at the price of 1.1073, where the MACD indicator line also passes.

On the four-hour chart, a price reversal from the MACD line was noted, but not fully realized. At the moment, the price is already above the balance line (red moving) and the Marlin oscillator is holding in the growth zone, which shows the price's intention to once again attack the MACD line. Now the condition for a further decrease is overcoming the price of yesterday's low.

In general, the situation is neutral and the euro may cheer up today's data on industrial production for November (forecast 0.3%), but tomorrow retail sales in the US for December will be released, the forecast for which is 0.5% for basic sales and 0.3% for general . It is likely that investors are planning more active actions for this data.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Prospects and trends for gold in January and February 2020

The consolidation in the gold market ended with the New Year holidays as well as rocket salvos in Iraq, where the United States killed the commander of the Kudes Iranian unit, Qassem Soleimani. Thank God, the global war did not happen, but the nerves of the investors completely lost, and they rushed to buy gold in full accordance with the forecast published in early December 2019. However, the time has come to look at the prospects of the precious metal and make adjustments to the assessment of the situation.

As we know, the position of traders in futures contracts traded on the CME exchange has the greatest impact on the price of gold. The latest data from the Traders Obligations Report - Commitments of Traders (COT) Reports, published by the US Commodity Futures Commission - CFTC, indicates an increase in the volume of new money entering the market. In addition, the Open Interest of the gold futures contract grew from 926 thousand to 1197 thousand contracts, or almost one third between November 29 and January 10.

Such an increase in the interest of market participants in gold, which took place against the backdrop of a rise in stock indices, suggests that the departure of the price of gold to the level of $ 1,600 per troy ounce was not an accident caused by the geopolitical situation. The assassination of the general was just an excuse for the precious metal to begin to rise again after a period of consolidation that lasted until the end of the fourth quarter.

Moreover, it is very important that the increase in the price of gold was supported by speculators Managed Money, whose long positions during the period from December to January grew from 225 thousand to 300 thousand contracts. According to the CFTC classification, Managed Money are a priori net buyers. Thus, the demand for gold from buyers was accompanied by the opening of new positions in the futures contract, which suggests fundamental reasons for the continuation of the current trend. Due to this, exchange traders felt the potential and began to increase positions.

If the increase in the price of gold was caused only by the development of events in the Middle East, then, firstly, we would not see a constant influx of new money that occurred in December, and secondly, Managed Money, which are speculators, could simply not react on the events that are happening.

So, for example, what happened in September 2019 and January 2020 in the oil market. The attack on the Saudi oil infrastructure was not supported by the influx of new money into the market, and speculators were in no hurry to open new long positions, which subsequently led to a decrease in oil prices. No demand - no price increase. In December, speculators bought oil, but almost no new positions were opened in the futures, which led to a decrease in oil prices as soon as the situation in the Persian Gulf area stabilized.

However, we have an increase in Open Interest in gold and an increase in purchases by speculators at the same time, which qualitatively distinguishes this situation from the situation in the oil market. On the other hand, the price of gold declined slightly after the crisis between Iran and the United States was resolved, and this is natural, but do not be fooled by the possibility of a potential reversal, since most likely there will not be a deep decline in the gold market.

We will analyze the positioning of traders in option contracts. The most liquid option contract now is the February contract OGG0 with the closure on January 28 (Fig. 1).

Figure 1: Open Interest in an OGGO Option Contract.

First of all, the significant predominance of "call" options over "put" options is noteworthy. The Put / Call Ratio coefficient is 0.71. This means that there are only 71 Put options for every 100 Call options. In the context of the growth of Open Interest, optional barriers may not withstand and miss the price higher. With this ratio, the importance of the Max Pain point located at 1500 also decreases, and returning to this point at the time the option contract expires is becoming less and less likely. This must be taken into account when opening gold sales positions. Option barriers hold the price well, but only when there is no trend on the market.

In this regard, it can be assumed that the levels of optional support are at 1510 and 1500. There are also graphic levels of price support, where gold can return by the end of the month for purely technical reasons. After that, there is a possibility of further price growth over the next three to six months, which implies a rise in gold to the level of $ 1,750 per troy ounce. Thus, sales to the levels of 1,500-1,510 dollars will be inappropriate, but such a price can be an ideal point for buying gold, unless, of course, by that time there will be a change in the mood of buyers in the futures market. Short-term goals for such purchases may be levels 1500, 1575 and 1600, formed by options such as "Call".

Today, the World Gold Council - published its forecast for 2020. The forecast indicates the main factors that, in the opinion of the Council, will affect the price of gold this year. It is assumed that financial uncertainty and low interest rates in most developed economies will support the price of gold, as investors will seek new sectors to protect investments and generate income. As a result, demand from central banks will also remain high. This, combined with investor interest, will allow gold to be added back to its value in all currencies.

According to WGC experts, the price impulse and positioning of traders will also support the price of gold. At the same time, volatility and expectations of weaker economic growth in the short term may lead to softer consumer demand, but structural economic reforms in India and China will support consumer demand in the long term.

Thus, traders trading can earn on price fluctuations by selling and buying precious metals on the best trading conditions, but investors should not forget that gold has provided them with a yield higher than the US dollar over the past twenty years, while performing a protection function risk investment.

By investing in gold and trading it in the short term, an investor can not only profit from fluctuations in price quotes, but also insure himself against unforeseen market risks. Be very careful and follow the rules of money management.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on January 21

Forecast for January 21:
Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1131, 1.1115, 1.1102, 1.1079, 1.1064 and 1.1031. Here, we are following the descending structure of January 16.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1079 - 1.1064. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the potential target is 1.1031. We expect a pullback to the top from this level. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 1.1102 - 1.1159. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1131. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of January 16

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.1102 Take profit: 1.1113
Buy: 1.1116 Take profit: 1.1130
Sell: 1.1078 Take profit: 1.1065
Sell: 1.1063 Take profit: 1.1034

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3116, 1.3056, 1.3020, 1.2953, 1.2901, 1.2838 and 1.2801. Here, we are following the formation of the descending structure of January 17. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2953. In this case, the target is 1.2901. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2900 will lead to the development of pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.2838. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2801. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3020 - 1.3056. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.3116.

The main trend is the descending structure of January 17

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.3020 Take profit: 1.3053
Buy: 1.3057 Take profit: 1.3114
Sell: 1.2952 Take profit: 1.2904
Sell: 1.2898 Take profit: 1.2838

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9778, 0.9758, 0.9725, 0.9699, 0.9668, 0.9654, 0.9632 and 0.9610. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of January 16. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9700. In this case, the target is 0.9725. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9725 will lead to pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9758. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9778. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9668 - 0.9654. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9632. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of January 16

Trading recommendations:
Buy : 0.9700 Take profit: 0.9725
Buy : 0.9727 Take profit: 0.9756
Sell: 0.9667 Take profit: 0.9655
Sell: 0.9652 Take profit: 0.9635

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 111.38, 110.78, 110.39, 109.81, 109.58 and 109.23. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 8. At the moment, we expect to reach the level of 110.39. The breakdown of which will allow us to count on movement to the level of 110.78. Price consolidation is near this value. The breakdown of the level of 110.80 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 111.38. Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 109.81 - 109.58. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 109.23. This level is a key support for the top. The main trend: the upward cycle of January 8.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 110.40 Take profit: 110.76
Buy : 110.80 Take profit: 111.35
Sell: 109.80 Take profit: 109.58
Sell: 109.55 Take profit: 109.25

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3157, 1.3126, 1.3112, 1.3090, 1.3062, 1.3040 and 1.3015. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 7. The continuation of the movement to the top is except after the breakdown of the level of 1.3090. In this case, the target is 1.3112. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3112 - 1.3126. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3157. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are possible in the range of 1.3040 - 1.3015. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 1.2988.

The main trend is the upward cycle of January 7, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.3090 Take profit: 1.3112
Buy : 1.3126 Take profit: 1.3155
Sell: 1.3038 Take profit: 1.3017
Sell: 1.3013 Take profit: 1.2990

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6933, 0.6901, 0.6885, 0.6853, 0.6820, 0.6803 and 0.6780. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of January 16. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6853. In this case, the target is 0.6820. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6820 - 0.6803. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6780. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6885 - 0.6901. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the top. In this case, the potential target is 0.6933. The main trend is the descending structure of January 16

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 0.6885 Take profit: 0.6900
Buy: 0.6904 Take profit: 0.6930
Sell : 0.6851 Take profit : 0.6823
Sell: 0.6820 Take profit: 0.6804

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.89, 123.32, 123.06, 122.68, 122.09, 121.80 and 121.47. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 122.68. In this case, the first target is 123.06. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 123.06 - 123.32
.The breakdown of the level of 123.35 will lead to a movement to a potential target - 123.89, from this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 122.09 - 121.80. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 121.47. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of January 8, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 122.70 Take profit: 123.05
Buy: 123.06 Take profit: 123.30
Sell: 122.07 Take profit: 121.84
Sell: 121.80 Take profit: 121.50

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 146.41, 145.55, 144.93, 144.53, 143.98, 143.07, 142.59 and 142.11. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 3. At the moment, the price is in correction. The resumption of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 144.00. In this case, the first goal is 144.53. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 144.53 - 144.93. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 145.55, and near which, we expect consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 146.41, from which we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 143.07 - 142.59. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 142.11.

The main trend is the upward structure of January 3, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 144.00 Take profit: 144.51
Buy: 144.53 Take profit: 144.91
Sell: 143.05 Take profit: 142.65
Sell: 142.54 Take profit: 142.11

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for AUD/USD on January 23, 2020

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar absorbed a positive market sentiment relative to the British pound yesterday, and just this morning, this news was actively played back on the positive employment data. By December, about 29 thousand people got a job, this is contrary and higher than the 15 thousand on the forecast. This makes the overall unemployment rate fell from 5.2% to 5.1%. In the Asian session, the growth of the "Australian dollar" graduated to 34 points, and the price exactly reached the MACD line on the daily chart. In the European session, exit above the line 0.6880 with consolidation above it and on Friday, the growth may extend to the price channel line 0.6903.

The price exceeded the MACD line on the four-hour chart but is still under the balance line, which means that the situation is developing mainly according to the older chart. For this day, everything will depend on whether the price can fix itself above the MACD line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the zone of positive values is already a sign of the price's intention to overcome the resistance of the senior TF, but in any scenario this growth is corrective.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

GBP/USD. UK after Brexit: waiting for collapse?

The UK will officially leave the European Union in five days. More precisely, the so-called "transition period" will begin, with which many identify the beginning of the real Brexit. Over the next 11 months, little will change for Great Britain. The country will cease to take part in the decision-making of the European Union, the British deputies will leave the European Parliament, however, the established trade relations and other rules and regulations by which the UK has lived in recent years will remain in force. Now, a month and a half after Boris Johnson's victory in the election, when passions and euphoria subsided, many experts conclude that the victory of the Conservatives is a result of the fragmentation of the political views of the opponents of Brexit, and not the excessive popularity of Conservatives among the people. In other words, there was only one option with the end of Brexit - vote for the Conservatives, and there were much more options against Brexit. At the same time, both the Scots, the Northern Irish, and the Welsh, supporting Brexit, had to vote not for "their" parties, but all for those Conservatives. For those who reject Brexit, they voted for the Scottish National Party, for the Labour Party, and for other political forces. As a result, all the voices of the opponents of Brexit were divided into 3-4 parties, all the voices of the supporters of Brexit left the party of Boris Johnson. However, now all this is not important. It's important - what the odious prime minister and his ruling party will lead the country to.

In fact, in the coming year, all questions to Johnson's team come down to whether he will be able to agree with the U on a new trade deal that will operate after the end of the transition period? According to many experts, the main thing that is required of Johnson is to sign such a deal that does not harm the UK economy as much as possible, which has been losing huge amounts over the past three years due to Brexit and, in any case, will continue to lose them in 2020. Nobody believes that the deal will be the way Johnson himself sees it. Johnson is not Trump, but the European Union is not China. The biggest question that causes skepticism among all market participants is the timing of negotiations on trade relations with the EU. Eleven months is very little to conclude such a comprehensive deal. Thus, either Johnson will be able to conclude a "surface" agreement in a short time, or he will have to extend the transition period for two years (which Johnson does not want) and conduct more meaningful negotiations, without forcing events and slowly.

Well, the biggest danger for London now comes from Edinburgh. Nicola Sturgeon, the first Minister of Scotland, has repeatedly stated that "London will not be able to lock us up and hope that everything will work out." Scotland opposes an exit from the EU, but advocates an exit from the UK if its interests are not taken into account by the government of Johnson. "If the UK continues to exist, it is only on the basis of universal consent," said Sturgeon. A formal request for a second independence referendum has already been sent to Johnson and has been rejected. However, it is unlikely that Edinburgh will so simply dwell on the refusal of permission to referendum. In the best case for Britain, the Scots will regularly put this issue on the agenda. At worst, separatism, refusal to subordinate to London, and unauthorized referendum are possible. I don't even want to think about what awaits Britain in the second case. Riots, a military conflict and a host of other "unpleasant things" are possible. Thus, all those who, following Johnson's victory in the elections, exhaled and considered that all the troubles are now behind, all that can be said is that all the troubles are still ahead, and Brexit now looks like the smallest of the problems of Great Britain.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

USD/JPY approaching resistance, potential drop !

Trading Recommendation Entry: 109.31 Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap resistance Take Profit :108.73

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low supportStop Loss: 109.79

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal pullback resistance

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Forecast for GBP/USD on January 31, 2020

GBP/USD
Yesterday's meeting of the Bank of England brought a pleasant surprise for the pound - 7 members of the monetary policy committee spoke out for maintaining the rate against the expectation of 6 or even 5 members. The pound grew by 75 points due to this. On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator entered the growth zone and goes above the upper boundary of its own wedge. Price above the balance line. The growth target of 1.3220 is the area of accumulation of the Fibonacci level of 200.0% with the indicator line of MACD.

On a four-hour chart, the price is higher than both indicator lines - balance sheet and MACD, Marlin in the trend growth zone. We look forward to continued growth.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. February 4. Euro has chance at growth, but with no macroeconomic support

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - up.
Lower linear regression channel: downward direction.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.
CCI: 78.3586

The first trading day of the week passed in a corrective movement, however, the EUR/USD pair worked out a moving average line, but failed to gain a foothold below it, which saves the bulls chances of a new upward trend. In principle, following the euro's two day growth, the pair has been corrected as expected and now technical factors allow us to count on the resumption of the upward movement. However, in addition to technical factors, there are also fundamental, as well as macroeconomic ones. In brief, I recall that the fundamental factors remain on the side of the US currency for the following reasons: a stronger US economy, a more hawkish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, the same pace of slowdown in the economies of the United States and the European Union, as well as the same signs of economic recovery. Macroeconomic factors are also in favor of the dollar this week so far: US manufacturing activity indices have increased and left the red zone below 50.0, business activity indices in the manufacturing sector of the EU have shown low growth, but most of them remained in the recession zone. Thus, at the moment, we have a certain conflict between fundamental and technical factors, and we believe that the upward movement will not be strong and long.

Only minor macroeconomic publications are planned in the EU and US on Tuesday, February 4. For example, the producer price index for December will be released in the EU, which, according to experts, will decrease by 0.7% y/y. Production orders for December will be published in the US, with a forecast of +1.1% m/m. However, it is unlikely that traders will react to any of these reports. We can only note the value of the producer price index, as it can affect the value of inflation. We already said in the final article for February 3 on the EUR/USD pair that Donald Trump can already be considered acquitted. Democrats were not able to attract even more witnesses to the case, but managed to stretch the entire process of considering it in the Senate as much as possible. In principle, the fact that the Senate refuses to impeach Trump was known with a probability of 99% from the very beginning. We have already said that the essence of the entire trial for the Democrats was the trial itself. The longer it lasts, the longer Trump is exposed in an unsightly light for himself before the electorate, which already in November 2020 will have to make a choice. Thus, we can only wait for the official results of the Senate vote on Wednesday and put a bullet in this matter. As for Trump's ratings, many agencies note that at this time they are at their highest values. But will these values be enough for the American people to choose an odious president for the second time? Social surveys say that 52% of Americans believe that Trump really violated the law by blocking military assistance to Ukraine, and also urging Vladimir Zelensky to launch an investigation into the activities of the Biden Democrats in Ukraine. 53% of Americans believe that the president did obstruct Congressional work by refusing to cooperate with the investigation of his own impeachment case. Thus, more than half of the electorate is now opposing Trump.

Trump himself feels calm, has stopped criticizing the Fed and Jerome Powell, has stopped scribbling daily opuses on Twitter about the "witch hunt" and in his exceptional style has managed to call Michael Bloomberg, one of the main Democratic presidential contenders, "short." "It's all right," Trump said, "you can be short. He (Michael Bloomberg) wants the box to stand on during the debate, but there is nothing wrong with that." Naturally, Bloomberg's spokesman Julie Wood immediately reacted, saying the US president was lying again. "He's lying all the time, he's a pathological liar," said Wood.

From a technical point of view, we are now waiting for the price to rebound from the moving and resumption of the upward movement with the update of the previous peak price. The macroeconomic background will be extremely weak tomorrow, so nothing should prevent the influence of technical factors on the pair's movement. In the event of consolidating the euro/dollar quotes below the moving average, the trend will change again to a downward trend.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair has increased due to trading on Friday and Monday to 47 points per day. Now this value is already average. Thus, on the second trading day of the week, we expect movement between the boundaries of the volatility band at 1.1012 and 1.1106. The steam will tend to lean towards the development of the upper boundary.

Nearest support levels: S1 - 1.1047
S2 - 1,1017
S3 - 1,0986
The nearest resistance levels:
R1 - 1,1078
R2 - 1,1108
R3 - 1,1139

Trading recommendations:
The euro/dollar began to adjust. Thus, purchases of the European currency with goals of 1.1078 and 1.1106 are relevant now, but we recommend that you wait for the correction to complete and only then should you start buying. It is recommended to return to selling the EUR/USD pair no earlier than consolidating the price below the moving average line, which will change the current trend to a downward trend, with targets at 1.1017 and 1.0986.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustrations:
The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.
The smallest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.
CCI - blue line in the indicator window.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - a blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple. Possible price movements:
Red and green arrows.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 6, 2020

Yesterday's US data on business activity in the non-manufacturing sector for January showed consistently high readings: the service PMI from Markit in the final assessment was raised to 53.4 from 53.2, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was 55.5 against 55.0 in December. This is a good sign of the stability of the American economy during the development of the coronavirus. The economic indicators of the Asia-Pacific countries are deteriorating, and the dollar is already becoming unshakeable. It is important to note that the strengthening of the dollar began on February 3, the day of the start of the presidential election campaign in the United States. We don't think it's a coincidence. During his time in office, Trump has repeatedly changed his position on the strength of the national currency, but the facts show one thing – the dollar has steadily strengthened over the past two years. We believe that now Donald Trump will be more specific.

The euro has completed its immediate task - it is fixed under the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. Now the pair's immediate target is 1.0925 – the lows of September 12 and 3, 2019. The second target is the minimum of October 1 at 1.0880.

On the four-hour chart, the price is fixed under the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is in the negative trend zone. The decline continues.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 10, 2020

EUR/USD

Friday's data on employment in the United States exceeded even optimistic forecasts; 225,000 jobs were created outside the agricultural sector in January against expectations of 163,000, the December figure was revised up to 147,000 from 145,000, the November Non-Farm Employment Change increased by 5,000, and the average hourly wage increased for the month by 0.2%. At the same time, the volume of consumer lending almost doubled – from 11.8 billion dollars to 22.1 billion. As a result, the euro fell by 36 points.

The reduction targets remain: 1.0925 - minimum on September 3 and 12, 2019, and 1.0880 - minimum on October 1.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the leading Marlin oscillator is directed upwards, which indicates that the indicator is likely to discharge and consolidate the price before a further decline.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Comprehensive analysis of movement options of #USDX vs AUD/USD vs USD/CAD vs NZD/USD (H4) on February 12

Minuette (H4)
Let's consider what will happen to commodity currency instruments from February 12, 2020. So, here's a comprehensive analysis of the development options for the movement #USDX vs AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD.

US dollar index
The movement of the #USDX dollar index from February 12, 2020 will be determined by developing and the direction of breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (98.63 - 98.83 - 99.05) of the Minuette operational scale forks. We look at the movement markings inside this zone on the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 98.63) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, it will lead to the development of the downward movement of the dollar index and be directed to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (98.20 - 97.92 - 97.64) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, If the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 98.40) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks and the final line FSL (resistance level of 99.12) of the Minuette operational scale forks are broken down, the upward movement #USDX can continue to the warning line UWL38.2 (99.60) of the Minuette operational scale forks and FSL Minuette end line (99.75). The markup of #USDX movement options from February 12, 2020 is shown on the animated chart

Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6699 - 0.6715 - 0.6731) of the Minuette operational scale forks will determine the development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD / USD from February 12, 2020. The marking the development of the above levels are shown on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel - resistance level of 0.6731 will lead to the Australian dollar reaching the equilibrium zone (0.6739 - 0.6764 - 0.6787) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of further development of the AUD / USD movement in the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6780 - 0.6830 - 0.9875) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

A sequential breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks - support level of 0.6699 and the 1/2 Median Line Minuette 0.6690 will determine the continuation of the development of the downward movement of the Australian dollar towards the goals:
- the initial SSL Minuette line (0.6655);
- control line LTL Minuette (0.6644);
- lower boundary ISL61.8 (0.6625) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks;
with the prospect of reaching warning lines - LWL38.2 (0.6615) and LWL61.8 (0.6590) of the Minuette operational scale forks.
We look at the layout of the AUD / USD movement options from February 12, 2020 on the animated chart.

US dollar vs Canadian dollar

The development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD from February 12, 2020 will continue to be determined by developing the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.3225 - 1.3276 -1.3333) of the Minuette operational scale forks. We look at the movement markings inside this zone on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (support level of 1.3225) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will continue the development of the downward movement of the Canadian dollar towards the goals:
- lower boundary of ISL61.8 (1.3200) equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks;
- final Schiff Line Minuette (1.3185);
with the prospect of reaching the final line of the FSL Minuette (1.3115).
On the other hand, a combined breakdown of the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 (resistance level of 1.3333) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks and the control line UTL Minuette (1.3345) will make the achievement of USD / CAD warning lines - UWL23.6 (1.3365) - UWL38.2 (1.3390) - UWL61.8 (1.3410) and UWL100.0 (1.3455) of the Minuette operational scale forks, relevant.
We look at the markup of USD / CAD movement options from February 12, 2020 on the animated chart.

New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD from February 12, 2020 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

resistance level of 0.6390 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks);
support level of 0.6370 (control line LTL of the Minuette operational scale forks).

In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6390, the NZD / USD movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (0.6390 - 0.6460 - 0.6525), and if the upper boundary (0.6525) of this channel is broken, the price of the instrument will continue to move in the equilibrium zone (0.6525 - 0.6575 - 0.6622) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Alternatively, in case that the breakdown of the support level of 0.6420 takes place on the control line of the LTL of the Minuette operational scale forks, then it will be relevant to reach the New Zealand dollar reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.6350 - 0.6255 - 0.6155) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

We look at the layout of the NZD / USD movement options from February 12, 2020 on the animated chart.

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;
Yen - 13.6%;
Pound Sterling - 11.9%;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

EURUSD: euro not pleased with the European Commission's future outlook for eurozone inflation. US inflation report will return the market to its place

The European currency was not very happy with the fact that consumer prices in Germany fell again in January, having justified all the forecasts of analysts, who put on another decline. The main decline in prices was due to a sharp drop in demand for tourism services, and there are reasons for this. According to the statistics agency Destatis, the final CPI of Germany in January 2020 fell by 0.6% compared to December and increased by 1.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The data fully coincided with the expectations of economists. As for inflation harmonized by EU standards, the index decreased by 0.8% in January compared to December and increased by 1.6% compared to January 2019.

As I noted above, the main reason is the sharp decline in prices for travel packages that occurred due to the outbreak of coronavirus in China. After a series of bad indicators released this and that week on the eurozone countries, many economists no longer consider future forecasts for Europe to be too optimistic. However, today, in the first half of the day, after a breakdown of the year's low in the region of 1.0865, the European Commission kept a report from a larger fall of the euro, in which a number of experts expected to see revised forecasts for economic growth and inflation.

Let me remind you that the European Commission's previous forecast was presented in November 2019.

So, in today's report, the European Commission continues to forecast eurozone GDP growth in 2020 at 1.2% and at a similar level in 2021. But the inflation forecast, on the contrary, was revised for the better. Now economists expect that inflation in the eurozone will be at 1.3% in 2020 against the previous forecast of 1.2%. For 2021, growth is expected at 1.4% against the previous forecast of 1.3%.

So far, the main concern that will negatively affect the eurozone economy is coronavirus, which represents a new bearish risk. There is also a fairly high degree of uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, which is an obstacle to improving sentiment. And if the trade agreement between the US and China has somewhat reduced the bearish risks, what will happen when the White House again raises the issue of duties with the eurozone is still a question.

The European Commission expects that economic growth will remain stable, and all emphasis is placed on domestic demand, while easing fiscal policies may support the economy in the future. The report also called for eurozone countries to pursue structural reforms aimed at boosting economic growth.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, buyers of risky assets continue to actively fight for the level of 1.0865, having missed that on inflation data in the US, one can only hope for lows in the areas of 1.0840 and 1.0800. If the scenario of profit taking on short positions by large players justifies itself after the data, then the upward correction will be limited by the first intermediate resistance level of 1.0890, but larger highs are seen in the areas of 1.0925 and 1.0950.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.