Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, December 02,2019

When the European market opens, such economic data as Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI will be unveiled. The US will publish such eocnomic reports as ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI.So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1073.

Strong Resistance: 1.1067.

Original Resistance: 1.1056.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1045.

Target Inner Area: 1.1019.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0993.

Original Support: 1.0982.

Strong Support: 1.0971.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0965.

(Disclaimer) *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Oil kings can do everything?

Oil is slowly recovering from a major sell-off on the last day of autumn. Taking advantage of the thin market after Thanksgiving, speculators decided to get rid of their long positions ahead of the December OPEC+ meeting. The simplest thing that the cartel and Russia can do is to prolong the agreement to reduce production by several months after March 2020. However, how will the market react to this? Isn't it better to avoid a massive sell-off before the results of the meeting are known?

If speculators sold oil at the November 29 auction, before that, on the contrary, they were actively building up long positions. By the end of the week, November 26, WTI net-longs increased by 15%, gross longs increased by 12%, while shorts fell by 14%. Approximately the same numbers could be seen on Brent.

Brent Speculative Dynamics

It is peculiar that black gold was not moving in unison with US stocks at the turn of autumn and winter. The latter were marked by a serious collapse after the White House introduced duties on imports of steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, while oil grew in response to rumors of Saudi Arabia's desire to expand production cuts from 1.2 million bpd to 1.6 million bpd, at least until June 2020. Riyadh needs to carry out an initial public offering of shares in the state-owned company Aramco, the scale of which is estimated at approximately $25 billion. If Brent is listed below $60 per barrel, it is unlikely that buyers will grab paper of the oil company like hotcakes.

However, according to Goldman Sachs, even if OPEC+ expands its obligations by 400 thousand bpd by the end of June 2020, this is unlikely to lead to a serious increase in prices. The bank predicts that North Sea-grade quotes will dangle around $60 per barrel for most of next year.

Oil support is provided by the first growth above the critical level of 50 in business activity in China's manufacturing sector since April. China is the largest consumer of black gold in the world, and an increase in demand of 64 thousand bpd in the third quarter is good news for Brent bulls and WTI. Moreover, the IEA predicts that the figure will reach a record high of 13.6 million bpd in 2020. I have no doubt that this will be so if the trade war between Washington and Beijing does not become history. Otherwise, weak global demand will continue to put downward pressure on black gold prices.

At the same time, the growth of shale production in the United States significantly affects the market balance. In September, the United States closed a full month as a net exporter of black gold for the first time since 1940. Its deliveries abroad exceeded imports by 89 thousand bpd. It is Interesting that the last time the value of net imports exceeded 12 million was ten years ago.

Technically, without leaving Brent quotes beyond the downward trading channel, the implementation of the Double Bottom pattern can be forgotten. On the contrary, a breakthrough of support at $56 per barrel, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the triangle, the risks of a downward trend recovery will increase.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Developing the trading idea for oil

Good evening, dear traders! I present to you the development of a trading idea for oil based on volumetric analysis!

Let me remind you that the idea for purchasing oil for the absorption of the decline last Friday was presented yesterday (12/04/19), which happened without the participation of America, because they had a public holiday. After that, the Americans traded for the next 2 trading sessions at prices that were not very profitable for sales, i.e. cheap relative to prices before the holidays.

The price increase occurred before the news on Oil Reserves, but this also increased the probability of a maximum update, since oil production was sharply reduced and today, there was an opportunity to add long positions in order to update the last maximum of 58.74.

As a result, 250 points were earned from the entry point 56.30 to the crossing 58.74. Moreover, it would bring +60 points when adding a long position or purchasing from oil reserves.

Forecast:

Developing trading idea with a description:

Good luck in trading and follow the money management!

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Plans for gold

Good day, dear traders! It is time to turn to gold, for which there is a possibility of a large medium-term decline. Last week turned out to be very exciting for this instrument: at first, the main driver was the news on China, on which gold showed strong growth, but the week ended with a sheer drop in non-farms and a complete absorption of "Chinese" growth. It is important to note that a false breakout of the level of 1478.68, an important level for November sellers, was shown last week which confirms their strength.

Therefore, I believe that in the medium term gold will decline at least to the level of 1445.33. Whether this breakout turns out to be real or false does not matter, its presence is what is of significance to us. It is also necessary to remember that there will be another Federal Reserve meeting and a decision on the interest rate on Wednesday evening, which gold will definitely react strongly to. Therefore, I believe that until Wednesday, the development of a trend for gold is unlikely. I recommend that you wait until the pullback at least half of the Friday fall, after which you can look for the opportunity to take short positions in the medium term in order to update the price mark of 1445.33.

If the Friday fall is completely absorbed by buyers, this will mean that the priority has changed and the bearish scenario can be considered unfulfilled.

I remind you that the day of increased volatility in gold is on Wednesday evening - the interest rate on USD, as well as the Fed conference.

I wish you success in trading and big profits!

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

EUR/USD. US inflation unfairly ignored: market is busy with other problems

Dollar bulls ignored the release of data on rising US inflation today. The euro-dollar pair is waiting for meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, while the pound-dollar pair awaits early parliamentary elections. The remaining pairs in which the US dollar is a part of are closely watching the prospects of the US-Chinese negotiations in the light of the approaching December 15 - that is, the day when the White House could introduce additional duties on Chinese imports. In other words, the main currency pairs were distracted by other fundamental factors, so one of the key macroeconomic releases was left unattended by traders.

Nevertheless, this publication should not be ignored - sooner or later the market will return to these figures, especially if Washington and Beijing come to a certain compromise (according to rumors, Trump is ready to postpone the introduction of new duties in January or February). It's worth noting that the numbers published today came out in the green zone, showing impressive growth. In particular, the overall consumer price index reached 2.1% in annual terms - this is the best result since last November. On a monthly basis, instead of a projected decline to 0.2%, the index rose to 0.4%. The core index also pleased investors: the indicator met expectations at around 0.2% in monthly terms. The indicator came out in the green zone on an annualized basis, exceeding the forecast values (2.3% YOY). This dynamics is primarily due to the increase in energy tariffs (as in the previous period). In addition, medical services, food and transportation costs have risen in price.

But all these numbers were left out of the attention of EUR/USD traders (however, like the rest of the dollar pairs). Traders are clearly nervous on the eve of the December meeting of the Fed, the results of which will put dots on the i in many matters. First, the general tone of the accompanying statement is of interest. The dollar's position largely depends on how regulator members place emphasis in their communique.

The Fed definitely has reasons for optimism - many macroeconomic reports over the past month have been either better than forecasts, or have been revised upwards. For example, the growth rate of the US economy in the third quarter should have slowed down to 1.8% (with growth up to 3.1% in the first quarter and up to 2% in the second). In reality, the volume of GDP increased by 2.1%, and the component of personal consumption showed the highest growth from the second quarter of the year before last. The price index of GDP remained at the initial level of 1.7% (against the two percent forecast), while this indicator grew by 2.4% in the second quarter. Base RFE also accelerated - to 2.1% after more modest growth in the previous period. The indicator of orders for durable goods also pleased. Here you can recall Nonfarm: the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased to 266 thousand, although, according to data from the ADP agency, this indicator should have fallen below the 100 thousandth mark. Employment in the manufacturing sector also increased (an increase of 54 thousand), after a decrease in the previous month. The unemployment rate has completely decreased to a half-century low - up to 3.5%.

It is likely that members of the US regulator in their accompanying statement will reflect the above trends in the economy. However, there is a flip side to the coin - this is the uncertainty about the prospects for trade relations between China and the United States, as well as a slowdown in the manufacturing and export sectors. The ISM index in the service sector, as well as the production ISM, turned out to be much worse than forecasts, reflecting the ongoing decline in activity, in particular, in the manufacturing industry. In addition, the most important inflation indicator for the Fed (base PCE) showed a negative trend, falling to 1.6% in annual terms. Thus, it moved away from the two percent target level.

All this suggests that the December meeting of the Fed can bring surprises. According to the forecasts of most experts, the Fed will maintain the status quo, and secondly, it will not hint at a possible interest rate cut in the first half of next year. According to this scenario, a point forecast will signal that the regulator does not intend to mitigate monetary policy in 2020. This is a basic scenario, which is already largely taken into account in prices. In case of deviation from it, the dollar will fall into a storm of price turbulence. The greenback will become significantly cheaper if the Fed allows lower rates next year and, accordingly, more expensive if regulators favor a tightening of monetary policy within the next year. It is also worth considering that today the regulator will publish updated forecasts for the economy, employment and inflation. If they differ significantly from October estimates, then the reaction of traders will also not take long. Against the backdrop of such prospects, today's data on the growth of US inflation remained in the shadow. The movement vector of the EUR/USD pair is completely dependent on the results of the December meetings of the Fed and the ECB.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

GBP/USD. Great Britain is outside the European Union. Problems begin even before the official Brexit.

Fanfares died out, everyone was drunk from champagne, and the whole Kingdom celebrated the victory of Boris Johnson in the elections, and now the country really has the right to prepare for the final "divorce" from the European Union. Most likely, Boris Johnson will succeed in unhindered dragging his version of the "deal" with the European Union on Brexit through the new Parliament, which means that London and Brussels can announce the beginning of the "transition period" on January 31 (or even earlier). We said earlier that despite the strong appreciation of the pound against the optimism of traders regarding Brexit and the formation of a "majority government" by conservatives, the UK and the pound are now facing harsh everyday life. Moreover, pound may continue to strengthen in pair with the dollar, however, traders will begin to pay attention to macroeconomic statistics from Foggy Albion and from overseas sooner or later, and it does not need to be analyzed for a long time in order to draw appropriate conclusions. It is unequivocal, in favor of the American currency. Moreover, market participants can "remember" all those failed statistics from Britain in those two months when no one paid attention to it. If we add to this the still potentially long and complicated negotiations with the European Union on new trade relations between the bloc and the Kingdom, it becomes clear that the economic situation in the UK may continue to deteriorate, which will definitely negatively affect economic performance.And in the last three months, the main indicator of the state of the economy of any country – GDP - either showed negative growth rates, that is, decreased, or showed zero growth.

Nevertheless, this is not all the potential problems that may be encountered in the UK. The fact is that no less high-profile than Boris Johnson, Nicola Sturgeon won in her Scottish Parliament. From which her party scored 48 out of 59 possible seats. Sturgeon had also previously stated that Scotland is against leaving the European Union. Now, after the deafening victory of the Scottish nationalists, talk of holding a second referendum resumed. The leader of the Scottish National Party said that "the future of Scotland should be in the hands of the Scots." According to Sturgeon, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a mandate for Brexit in England, but does not have a mandate to withdraw Scotland from the European Union. Next week, the Sturgeon party will submit an official application for a referendum on independence. "It's not about to ask permission from the prime minister of Great Britain or any other Westminster politician. This is a confirmation of the democratic right of the people of Scotland to determine their future." Sturgeon emphasized. "Scotland cannot be a prisoner of Britain, it needs to be allowed to hold a referendum on independence, since it was on the verge of leaving the European Union against its will." summed up by the first minister of Scotland.

Thus, we believe that the UK can now face the new Brexit, even before the implementation of its own. Although it is difficult to say whether Nicola Sturgeon is able to hold such a referendum without the approval of London. And there is no doubt that London will not give approval. Thus,we can witness a new epic called "Scexit" (Scotland EXIT) very soon.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

EUR/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

Trading RecommendationEntry: 1.11073

Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, 78.6% fibonacci extension, breakout level

Take Profit : 1.11868Reason for Take Profit:horizontal swing high resistanceStop Loss: 1.10616Reason for Stop loss:61.8% Fibonacci retracement

(Disclaimer) *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Forecast for AUD / USD on December 20, 2019

AUD / USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar grew 32 points on good employment data which makes the unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2%. In general, the correctional growth from the fall of the "Aussie" from December 13 to 17 was 61.8% which is 38.2% on the chart. Due to this, the growth may stop since a double divergence has already been formed on the Marlin oscillator, and the probability of triple divergence is historically small. The first goal of the new wave of decline is the nested price channel line at 0.6860. Overcoming this level opens up prospects for a medium-term decrease in the Australian dollar which is at 0.6820 according to the MACD line near the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, and at 0.6778 which is the reaction level of 161.8%. This continues on to the underlying embedded price channel line which is at 0.6678.

On the four-hour chart, the price is currently above the balance lines (indicator red) and MACD, and the Marlin oscillator is also in the growth zone. The departure of the price for these lines, below 0.6885, will reveal the main lowering scenario. The observed price above the indicator lines will be interpreted as false.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

Trading RecommendationEntry: 1.31158 Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit : 1.27253 Reason for Take Profit:50% fibonacci retracementStop Loss: 1.35194 Reason for Stop loss:

Horizontal swing high resistance

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Forecast for EUR/USD on January 6, 2019

EUR/USD

Last Friday, the euro made an attempt to push the technical level of 110.0% Fibonacci on the daily chart, but it failed on its first attempt. On Saturday, US President Trump threatened to attack 52 Iran's targets in the event of Iran's military response to a US missile strike, leading to the assassination of General Soleimani. Trump was indirectly supported by Britain, Germany and France, once again urging Tehran to comply with the nuclear deal. We doubt the development of the conflict before the hot phase of the war with Iran, but the current situation can help the dollar in getting out of consolidation (of course, in the direction of strengthening), stretching from July last year.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator approached the lower boundary of its own channel, the exit from which down will strengthen the fall of the euro. The purpose of the movement is the embedded line of the global downward price channel in the region of 1.1045.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Australian network through franc

Good evening, dear traders. Congratulations to all Orthodox Christians on Christmas! I wish you well and financial well-being!

As you have probably already noticed, I often trade certain cross-courses using the grid method. And today, as an example of one of them, I will show how you can spread the correct network of limit purchases on the highly oversold AUD/CHF instrument.

Please note that such counter-trend sets should be carried out only after fairly strong passes and an understanding of the average rollback for the pair. You can see some part of these numbers on the screen on the left with a 5-digit dimension.

Now, if you use the lot increase coefficient, you can calculate it according to the trader's calculator.

Good luck in trading and control the risks!

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for GBP/USD on January 10, 2020

GBP/USD
The British pound lost 30 points on Thursday. The price consolidated below the MACD line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling in the negative trend zone, but not due to the strong dynamics of the pound's decline, the balance indicator line (red) continues to hold the price, further slowing its decline. The continuation of such a tendency - a decrease in the British pound will lead to an increase in bullish sentiment, the market can take advantage of such confusion.

Data on US employment will be published today, the forecast for new jobs in the non-agricultural sector for December is 162 thousand, this may be an incentive to further pull down the pound to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2968. But even in this case, the pound's decline rate may not be enough to overcome the balance indicator line. If it also remains below the price by the opening of Monday, then the correction of the British pound is possible next week. The 1.2968 level is technically strong.

On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the MACD line yesterday - one candle with the whole body was under this line, but at the moment the price is already above the MACD line. Such a false signal is also a sign of a short downward movement, if any (to our target 1.2968). The Marlin oscillator is moving after the price, it is not providing signals. Another price consolidation below the MACD line, as well as under the correction level of 23.6%, will open the nearest target at 1.2968. To move the price to lower targets (1.2820, 1.2730), which are marked on the daily scale, you need a rapid movement of the price down today.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.