Forecast for EUR/USD on July 12, 2023

EUR/USD
The euro has reached the target resistance of 1.1028. The pair has crossed the peak of June 22, and along with it, the primary conditions for forming divergence with the Marlin oscillator have been prepared. If a divergence is formed, it will mean the end of the entire corrective growth since May 31. If the price consolidates above 1.1028, it could extend this correction to 1.1085, that is, to its limit as a correction. But if the pair surpasses this level, it will mean the continuation of the entire uptrend from September 25, 2022. However, this growth also has a small chance of a build-up, its first resistance level is 1.1155.

oday, the June CPI data will be published in the United States. The total CPI is forecasted to fall from 4.0% y/y to 3.1% y/y, and the core CPI is expected to decrease from 5.3% y/y to 5.0% y/y. As the previous rise from July 6 was purely speculative, the market reaction to the data could even be against the data. This means that if the current market logic implies a softening of the Federal Reserve's policy in connection with forecasts for today's data, then the actual reaction could be the opposite (falling euro), as a cumulative view on the deterioration of the European economy and the resilience of the American one. It is also notable that the market ignored yesterday's drop in the European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July from -10.0 to -12.2.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is developing sideways movement in its own range. This is a sign of increasing potential for a downward movement. All we have to do is wait for the US inflation report and look at the market reaction.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for July 14, 2023

EUR/USD continues to rally higher towards the next upside target at 1.1444. In the longer term, we are looking for EUR/USD to move closer to the 1.2007 target as a minimum.

Short-term support is seen near 1.1130 with solid support placed at 1.1033, which previously acted as resistance, but now, has shifted character to support after the clear break on Wednesday. In the short term, we could see the pace of the rally settle down, but the bias will remain towards the upside.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 18, 2023

EUR/USD:
The euro closed Monday's session at the opening level below the resistance at 1.1237. This morning, the price rose higher than yesterday's high and formally opened the target at 1.1320.

Speculative growth of the euro continues, but it will eventually come to an end, maybe today, as the US will release its retail sales report for June, with an optimistic forecast of 0.5% compared to 0.3% in May. The Marlin oscillator does not react to the price increase; it continues to fall. The upward movement may turn out to be deceptive.

On the four-hour chart, Marlin also does not respond to the recent price growth. Yesterday, the pair failed to break through the key level of 1.1205; it retains its role today as well. Overcoming this level will open the next target at 1.1155. Breaking below 1.1155 opens up the key range of 1.1076/96.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of EUR/USD Main Currency Pairs, Thursday, July 20 2023

If we look on its 4 hour chart, EUR/USD main currency pairs seems like Buyers still dominates where this things confirmed by EMA 12 & 26 which is still intersecting Golden Cross as well as indicator CCI which manages to break above its three levels and hold on to the level 0 which indicates that there is significant support based on these facts, in the near future Fiber has the potential to rally up to test the 1.1253 level. If this level is successfully broken up, then the 1.1276 level will be the main target to aim for and the 1.1329-1.1376 area level will be the next target to go for. However, all of these strengthening scenarios will cancel itself out if on the way the EUR/USD rally goes up towards the target levels, it is suddenly corrected downwards and breaks below the 1.1134 level because if this level is successfully broken down then all strengthening rally scenarios previously described will become invalid and cancel automatically.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 24, 2023

GBP/USD:
On Friday, the British pound traded in a 43-pip range, slightly decreasing by the end of the day. The Marlin oscillator has entered the downward territory, strengthening the pound's potential to test the support level at 1.2666-1.2720.

The MACD line has become significant within the mentioned range. The price will likely fall after breaking below Friday's low at 1.2815. On the four-hour chart, we can see that the price tested the nearest correction level at 1.2903 with the upper shadow on Friday. The price and oscillator convergence is gradually waning.

If today's UK business activity gauge shows that the Manufacturing PMI is slowing down as expected, while the US Manufacturing PMI is getting stronger (forecast of 46.4 versus 46.3 in May), then the pound will likely fall towards the upper band of the target range at 1.2720.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

NZDUSD, H4 | React off Resistance level?

The NZD/USD chart is currently trending bearish, with the price within a bearish Ichimoku cloud and below a major descending trend line, indicating potential further decline. The 1st support at 0.6166, a multi-swing low, and the 2nd at 0.6128, an overlap support and the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, could halt the bearish run. Resistance levels are at 0.6221 and 0.6272, acting as overlap and pullback resistances respectively, potentially sparking selling pressure.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

XAUUSD, H4 | React off Resistance level?

The XAU/USD pair is showing a bearish trend, potentially leading to a price drop from the 1st resistance level towards the 1st support at 1938.31, significant due to its pullback support and 50% Fibonacci retracement alignment. If the price breaches this level, the 2nd support at 1928.59, an overlap support and the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level, is notable. Resistance levels are at 1954.07 (pullback) and 1968.24 (pullback), both likely hindrances for upward price movement.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 1, 2023

EUR/USD
Euro failed to approach the target range of 1.1068/92 yesterday, in part due to the large distance to cover and the technical resistance on lower timeframes. Key economic reports also came out rather weak, with Germany's retail sales for June showing a decrease of 0.8%. Meanwhile, the Chicago Business Activity Index for July increased from 41.5 to 42.8, collectively offsetting the eurozone's GDP growth for the 2nd quarter by 0.6% y/y (0.30% q/q).

The political factor also intervened, as China decided to reduce the export of unmanned aerial vehicles to the US, citing national security reasons. Furthermore, the forecasts for key economic indicators in the US came out optimistic.

Currently, the price approaches the target level of 1.0924, along which the MACD line also converges. There may be a breakout around the speculative buying range of July 6-7, or a correction from the entire decline since July 18.

On the four-hour timeframe, the balance indicator line capped yesterday's growth, pushing the price below 1.1012. The Marlin oscillator also fell under zero, showing a downward trend.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

NZD/USD, H4 | Will the Kiwi finally find support?

The NZD/USD pair is displaying a bearish trend, suggesting a potential fall towards the first support at 0.6065 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the -27.20% Fibonacci expansion level. If price continues to fall further, the second support level is at 0.5994 which is swing-low support. To the upside, the first resistance at 0.6132 is an overlap resistance while the second resistance at 0.6221 is a swing-high resistance.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 7, 2023

EUR/USD:
Friday's US employment data for July came out positive. Nonfarm payrolls increased 187,000 in July, average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, and the unemployment rate declined from 3.6% to 3.5%, even after June's increase of 209,000 got revised lower to 185,000 while the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.6%.

The price closed the day with a 58-pip gain, failing to reach both the target level of 1.1068 or the Fibonacci correction level of 38.2%. Trading volume was high, so the euro may develop upward movement. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned upwards, and the border of the bullish territory is nearby.

On the four-hour chart, the upward movement ended at the MACD line, afterwards the price returned below the resistance level of 1.1012. The Marlin oscillator is in the positive territory, indicating that the euro is likely to take a breather before it grows further.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Forecast for GBP/USD on August 9, 2023

GBP/USD Over the past two days, we observed that the British pound falsely settled above the MACD indicator line (and above the 23.6% Fibonacci level) on Monday. Then it made a false breakout to the downside on Tuesday, narrowly missing the target support level at 1.2666.

This morning, the price is returning above the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Surpassing yesterday's peak at 1.2784 opens up the target for further corrective growth towards 1.2880 (50.0%). If the price solidifies below 1.2720, it opens up the target at 1.2666. Afterwards, it can further fall towards 1.2590.

On the four-hour chart, the price is trying to overcome the resistance of the MACD line. It's aided by the Marlin oscillator, which is already in the positive territory. The price only needs to settle above 1.2760. It has a 60% chance at growth.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

USDJPY, H4 | React off Resistance level?

The current USD/JPY chart reflects a bearish momentum, indicating an ongoing downward trend. In light of this momentum, there is a possibility that the price might react bearishly upon reaching the 1st resistance level, potentially leading to a decline towards the 1st support. The significance of the 1st support at 143.81 is highlighted as it serves as an overlap support and is further reinforced by a 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement. Similarly, the 2nd support at 142.78 is identified as an overlap support and aligns with a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement. On the contrary, the 1st resistance level at 144.86 gains importance as a multi-swing high resistance. This level gains additional strength from its alignment with a 61.80% Fibonacci Projection and a 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, adding to its potential as a resistance level.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More