Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 5, 2022

The euro rose 160 points yesterday on the back of continued risk appetite in the stock markets. The US S&P 500 added 3.06%. Yields on government bonds also fell - on 5-year bonds from 4.06% to 3.88%. The level of accumulation of stop losses in the area of 1.9870 was overcome and the euro was able to overcome the technical resistance - the level of 0.9950 we defined and the MACD line of the daily scale.

The price stuck in the range of monthly consolidation on August 22-September 20 at 0.9950-1.0050. Yesterday's surge in the stock markets is unlikely to repeat today, and on Friday there will be data on labor in the US for September. The forecast for new jobs in the non-farm sector is 250,000, which is very good and could add to the worries about the rate. At the upper border of the specified range (1.0050), the price will most likely reverse downwards, with the price returning below 0.9855. The price may not reach 1.0050. The main sign of a reversal will be consolidation under 0.9950.

Divergence is already visible on the four-hour timescale. It can be smoothed out in the next 24 hours, but this is a visual indication of further difficulties for the bulls in the monthly price consolidation zone. Albeit with difficulty, but the price can still consolidate under the level of 0.9950. We are waiting for the development of events.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 7, 2022

Yesterday the euro successfully overcame the support of 0.9855 and rushed towards the support of 0.9724. The euro is declining even faster than its growth in recent days. Consolidation under 0.9724 opens the 0.9520 target. Marlin Oscillator fixed in negative territory.

Employment data for September will be released today. The forecast for new jobs in the non-agricultural sector is 250,000, which is a very good indicator with an unemployment rate of 3.7%. The markets are seriously tuned in to such data, as yesterday all dollar assets fell in price, including commodities and stocks.

The price is preparing to attack the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The MACD line itself is approaching the target level of 0.9724, so the price level is of key importance. The Marlin Oscillator is developing in the downward trend area.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 12, 2022

Yesterday, the euro traded in a solid range of 103 points, but the closing of the day was almost at the opening level and in fact the price settled on the daily chart, under the key level of 0.9724. As a result, now we are waiting for a more confident price decline to the level of 0.9520.

Eurozone industrial production data for August will be released today. An increase of 0.6% and an improvement in the annual rate from -2.4% to 1.2% y/y are expected. Market participants will be drawn to today's release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting - investors need to find out if their federal funds rates are justified in the 78% probability of a 0.75% rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting on November 2.

On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated under the MACD line and under the level of 0.9724 now after a false exit above these lines. We look forward to continuing the chosen course. Not far from the target level of 0.9520 is an intermediate target of 0.9554 – the low of September 26th. The level is strong, so the target of the movement can be defined as a range of 0.9520/54.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 14, 2022

Yesterday was another day of high volatility. The euro traded in the range of 176 points, closing the day with an increase of 74 points. The price has moved above the resistance level of 0.9724, now the 0.9855 target is just ahead. The daily-scale MACD indicator line is approaching the level.

According to the first version of the correction, the growth may end in this area. According to the second option, the growth may continue to the level of 0.9955 - to the low of July 14, which will create a false exit of the price above the MACD line. If later the price returns and settles under the MACD line, then the subsequent decline may be below 0.9520.

The media cite arguments for the euro's growth: the market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's November rate hike of 0.75% and even the "ceiling" of the rate of 4.85% in March next year. We allow such an interpretation and quote the euro at current levels at a rate of 4.85%, but then political factors should be removed from the components, including the latest event - sabotage at the Druzhba oil pipeline in Poland. Oil rose by 2.44% yesterday, the stock index S&P 500 by 2.60%. That is, there is a short-term return of market players to risk. At the same time, yields on US government bonds are not declining. So far, we are seeing a "shake-up" of the market on US inflation data. Yesterday, the core CPI for September showed an increase from 6.3% y/y to 6.6% y/y, while the overall CPI fell from 8.3% y/y to 8.2% y/y.

On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the level of 0.9724 and MACD line. Growth stopped at the balance line, which shows the consolidation of the "bulls" for a short-term turning point in their favor. Marlin Oscillator is in the growth zone. We are waiting for the end of the correction either at the nearest level of 0.9855 or at 0.9950, which is more likely due to the nature of yesterday's reversal.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 18, 2022

The main drivers of yesterday's growth in almost all market assets were the British pound and the US stock market. The new Minister of Finance, Jeremy Hunt, canceled the so-called "mini-budget" of his predecessor Kwarteng, on which the currency and debt markets of Great Britain went up. The pound rose by 1.05%, S&P 500 by 2.65%, also growing under the impression of good corporate reports, and the euro by 1.08% (117 points).

In its growth, the price almost reached the magnetic point of intersection of two lines - the target level of 0.9855 and the MACD line of the daily scale. Now the price has two actions to choose from: consolidate above this level and continue to rise to 0.9950, and turn down to the starting point of yesterday - to the level of 0.9724. The Marlin Oscillator is in the positive area, it tends to continue growing. The difficulty in choosing a direction is also that there are now two opposing investment ideas on the market: to continue buying risk on a positive background of corporate reports and to be careful in this, slowly getting rid of the euro, as amid continuing negative statistics on the euro area, the European Central Bank may raise the rate not by 0.75% but by 0.50% at a meeting on October 27, which, of course, will send the euro unambiguously down.

US industrial production data for September is released today. Forecast 0.1% vs. -0.2% in August. And if the data helps the euro to overcome the current resistance of 0.9855, then this will become an indicator of the mood of investors in the coming days (growth in risk appetite).

The situation is generally on the rise on a four-hour timescale. But in order to stay in the growing trend, the price must consolidate above the resistance. Otherwise, a quick return to 0.9724 may follow. This can happen in the event of sharply negative news.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on October 20, 2022

The yen hit an important target at 150.00 (this morning's actual high of 149.96). In addition to being a round number, the target is defined by an embedded monthly timeframe price channel line. Above it are levels with increased frequency, approximately every 80 points.

There were rumors again on the market that the Bank of Japan is preparing another intervention. The technical component also indicates to us a high probability of a price reversal during the formation of a divergence with the Marlin Oscillator. We believe that this is the main scenario for further developments. The nearest target in this case will be the price channel line in the area of 147.40.

A divergence is also preparing to form on the four-hour chart. We will find out later this evening whether the reversal will take place or not.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 24, 2022

On Friday, the head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, said that the high pace of rate hikes is slowing down the economy, this pace needs to be slowed down. As a result, yields on government bonds fell, stock indices rose, and the euro closed the day up 75 points. The quote of the single currency again reached the resistance of 0.9864 and the MACD indicator line. The European Central Bank raises rates on the 27th, but we still doubt the market's willingness to switch so quickly from the Fed's leading role in pricing the euro to the ECB's leading position. Eurozone business activity indicators for October will be released today, and a recession is predicted for them.

On the technical side, in order to consolidate the euro in the green, the price needs to go above the descending price channel, marked in green on the daily chart, that is, above the level of 0.9950. Price development above 0.9864 (September 6 low) before breaking 0.9950 in this situation is considered as a false exit above the MACD indicator line. Consolidation below this line may bring the price back to support 0.9724. The Marlin Oscillator is already turning down and does not share the optimism of the price.

The price is already forming a divergence with Marlin on the H4 chart. As long as it's weak. A decline below the MACD line (0.9797) will set the bearish mood for the euro.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of Litecoin for October 26, 2022

Litecoin has now broken above resistance at 56.43 which will be calling for more upside towards the S/H/S bottoms neckline near 65.00. A break above here will activate the bottom formation for a rally towards the S/H/S-target at 97.38 and possibly even the extension target at 116.85. However, in the longer term, we expect a much stronger rally and Litecoin to continue higher towards its all-time high near 400. Ultimately, the all-time high peak at 413.60 should be broken too, but it could be far out in the future. So, let's work with the data we have and take it in baby steps as always and look for a test of the neckline resistance at 65.00 as the next upside target.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold still attractive for buyers

The price of gold dropped in the short term after reaching the 1,675 level. Now, it is traded at 1,664 at the time of writing. XAU/USD slipped lower as the DXY tried to rebound. Still, Gold could try to develop a new bullish momentum as the Dollar Index is under downside pressure.

Today, the fundamentals will drive the price, so you have to be careful. The ECB is expected to increase the Main Refinancing Rate from 1.25% to 2.00%. The Monetary Policy Statement and the ECB Press Conference could really shake the markets.

Also, the US Advance GDP is expected to register a 2.3% growth, Advance GDP Price Index may report a 5.3% growth, Unemployment Claims could be reported at 219K, Durable Goods Orders could register a 0.6% growth, while Core Durable Goods Orders may report a 0.2% growth.

As you can see on the H1 chart, XAU/USD found resistance at 1,668. The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the uptrend line. Technically, after its strong growth, a temporary drop was natural.

Staying near the 1,668 resistance may signal an imminent breakout. Temporary consolidation could bring more bullish energy and attract more buyers.

XAU/USD Forecast!

Staying above the minor uptrend line and making a valid breakout above 1,675 could confirm further growth. A new higher high is seen as a buying opportunity. The 1,700 psychological level and the R2 (1,699) represent upside targets.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 28, 2022

Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has hit the projected target level at 1.1625 (61% Fibonacci extension of the wave A) and is approaching the intraday technical support seen at 1.1496. The local high was even made at the level of 1.1644 before the Pin Bar candlestick pattern forced bulls to pull-back towards the technical support. The market is ready to extend the breakout towards the projected target level located at 1.1717 (supply zone) or higher. The intraday technical support is seen at 1.1496 and 1.1544. The momentum is strong and positive, which supports the short-term bullish outlook for GBP. Only a sudden and strong breakout below the 30 periods moving average would change the imminent outlook to bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.15209
WR2 - 1.14338
WR1 - 1.13938
Weekly Pivot - 1.13467
WS1 - 1.13067
WS2 - 1.12596
WS3 - 1.11725

Trading Outlook:
The bears are still in charge of Cable and the next long-term target for them is the parity level. The level of 1.0351 has not been tested since 1985, so the down trend is strong, however, the market is extremely oversold on longer time frames already. In order to terminate the down trend, bulls need to break above the level of 1.2275 (swing high from August 10th).

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 1, 2022

The euro undertook a downward breakout on Monday. Having made a path of 80 points, the euro has almost reached the target support of 0.9864. Apparently, the price lingered before the support to build up strength before it was overcome, as the support is strengthened by the MACD line (0.9840). Overcoming the formed range (0.9840/64) opens a further path to the target support at 0.9715 – to the April 2000 high.

The Marlin Oscillator is approaching the zero line on the daily. It is likely that the price will overcome the support range and the zero line oscillator at the same time. Such synchronization will lead to a powerful downward movement. In terms of timing, such a breakthrough may take place tomorrow - on the day of the Federal Reserve meeting.

On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated under the indicator lines of balance (red) and MACD. The Marlin Oscillator is developing in the downward trend zone. Today, consolidation is likely before the breakout of the planned supports, or even the first attempt at such a breakout.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Signal for GBP/USD on November 3-4, 2022: buy above 1.1378 (200 EMA - bottom bearish channel)

In the next few hours, we could expect a technical bounce above the 200 EMA around 1.1378. So, the price could reach 3/8 Murray at 1.1474 and even 1.1550 (top bearish channel).

Conversely, in case of a sharp break below the 200 EMA and a daily close on the 4-hour chart below 1.1370, the currency pair could continue the bearish bias and the price could reach 2/8 Murray around 1.1230.

The eagle indicator is giving a negative signal and any bounce towards the psychological level of 1.15 will be considered a signal to continue selling. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy above the 200 EMA and above the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.1378 with targets at 1.1474 and 1.1530.

On the other hand, the signal to sell will be activated if there is a strong break below 1.1370 (200 EMA) with targets at 1.1230.

As long as the GBP/USD pair trades within the downtrend channel formed since Oct 26, any technical bounce back towards the 21 SMA located at 1.14 98 will be seen as an opportunity to sell.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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