LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold is trading in both directions

Current trend

Gold prices showed a decline last Friday, departing from local highs updated during the last week. The reason for the emergence of "bearish" dynamics was the growth of the US currency, as well as significantly increased investor interest in risk amid a correction in European stock markets.

American investors are focused on preparations for the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Argentina. During the month, investors have been receiving a lot of contradictory information about this. The day before, Trump encouraged investors again, saying that China is ready to make a deal. Vice Minister of Commerce of PRC Wang Shouwen, in turn, noted that the American and Chinese trade representatives are in close contact. At the moment, the market is set to a positive outcome of the negotiations.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous nature of trading in recent weeks. MACD is growing, keeping a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, in contrast, maintains a rather active “bearish” trend, signaling in favor of the development of a downward correction of the instrument.

The indicators remain contradictory, so it is necessary to wait for clarification of trade signals.

Resistance levels: 1226.11, 1229.84, 1233.08, 1237.16.
Support levels: 1220.12, 1216.62, 1211.80, 1208.14.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1226.11. Take profit — 1233.08 or 1237.16. Stop loss — 1222.00.

A breakdown of 1220.12 may become a signal for returning to sales with target at 1211.80 or 1208.14. Stop loss — 1224.00.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

Current trend

Gold prices declined on Tuesday, updating local lows of November 15.

Investors are still focused on the US-Chinese trade conflict. In anticipation of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires starting on Friday, US President Donald Trump gave an interview to The Wall Street Journal; he said he is ready to impose increased tariffs on remaining Chinese imports totaling USD 267 billion if negotiations with Xi Jinping fail. The rate may be 10% or 25% but is yet to be confirmed. These comments may be an element of pressure to persuade the PRC to sign a treaty with the US. Trump also spoke about the Brexit deal, the text of which was approved by EU representatives on Sunday. According to Trump, the deal is excellent for the EU; however, accepting it, the UK will not be able to conduct bilateral trade with the US.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range consolidated, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is going down keeping a sell signal (located under the signal line). Besides, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic keeps downward direction but is approaching minimum levels, which reflects the oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

Resistance levels: 1216.62, 1220.12, 1226.11, 1229.84.
Support levels: 1211.80, 1208.14, 1200.00, 1196.10.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1216.62. Take profit — 1226.11 or 1229.84. Stop loss — 1212.00.
The rebound from 1216.62 with the subsequent breakdown of 1211.80 can become a signal to return to sales with target at 1205.00 or 1200.00. Stop loss — 1216.62.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

EUR strengthened against USD on Thursday amid a refutation regarding the introduction of US tariffs on cars from the EU before Christmas made by the European Commission.

The single currency was also supported by positive labor market statistics from Germany. Macroeconomic data from the US was mixed and did not support the USD. Private spending increased to 0.6% in October from 0.2% a month earlier. Personal income also showed a positive trend and amounted to 0.5% in October from 0.2% a month earlier. The FOMC protocol published last night confirmed the Fed’s intention to raise the key rate in December. At the same time, the regulator believes that in the future it is necessary to carefully approach the issue of tightening monetary policy after the December round of rate hikes. Investors reacted to these statements by selling the US currency.

Today, the publication of the consumer price index in the Eurozone (12:00 GMT+3) may influence the pair; high volatility is expected in the market.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart, there is an upward correction, the instrument is traded near the upper border of Bollinger Bands, the price range is expanded, which indicates a possible continuation of the upward movement. MACD histogram is in the positive area, gradually increasing volumes, the signal line crosses the zero mark and the body of the histogram from the bottom up, which is a signal to open long positions.

Support levels: 1.1362, 1.1348, 1.1330, 1.1300, 1.1265.
Resistance levels: 1.1400, 1.1415, 1.1433, 1.1460, 1.1491.

Trading tips

Long position may be opened from 1.1400 with the target at 1.1460 and stop loss at 1.1362.
Short positions may be opened from 1.1330 with the target at 1.1265 and stop loss at 1.1362.
Implementation period: 1-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Brent quotes are moderately growing and reached the area of 62.50 in anticipation of the outcome of the OPEC representatives meeting. On Wednesday in Vienna, a meeting of the OPEC+ Monitoring Committee will be held to assess the implementation of the limitation of the oil production agreement. On Thursday, a meeting of OPEC ministers will be held, at which, as predicted, a new agreement on reducing the level of production of "black gold" will be announced. Also, the price is supported by news about the agreement reached between the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia during the G20 summit to extend the agreement on oil production reducing.

Today, investors will pay attention to the preliminary data from the API about the weekly change in US oil reserves at 23:30 (GMT+2). If the rate rises, the instrument will be affected negatively in the short term. Official data from the US Department of Energy will be published tomorrow.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators reflex the development of growth potential. Bollinger bands and Stochastic lines are directed upwards. MACD volumes are actively growing in the positive zone, forming a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 62.50, 64.06, 65.62.
Support levels: 60.93, 59.37, 57.18.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 62.50 with the targets near 64.06 and stop loss 62.00.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 60.93 with the targets around 59.37 and stop loss 61.40

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: the upward momentum maintains

Current trend

Since the beginning of this week, the USD/CAD pair has grown by more than 250 points due to a decrease in demand for CAD and a moderate growth of USD. The price easily broke the local maximum of the end of June at 1.3390, which was a strong resistance level. CAD is under pressure of a rapid decline in oil prices and a drop in the activity of the energy sector. The US dollar, in turn, gradually strengthens its position.

Today and tomorrow, in the United States a number of key releases that may affect the pair, will be released: labor market data, including Nonfarm Payrolls, statistics on Production Orders, as well as key indices.

Support and resistance

In the short term, the upward momentum will raise the instrument to key resistance levels. If the US releases on the labor market are positive, the price may grow significantly. Now, the pair has almost reached the next serious resistance at the level of 1.3450. From this level, the pair may drop and move under the influence of trading sentiment and macroeconomic statistics. The long-term and medium-term trends remain upward, which means it is worth opening long positions, perhaps just after the downward correction.

Technical indicators confirm the growth forecast, the volumes of long MACD positions are growing, Bollinger bands are directed upwards.

The Resistance levels are 1.3450, 1.3530, 1.3570, 1.3595, 1.3610, 1.3650.
Support levels: 1.3390, 1.3375, 1.3355, 1.3290, 1.3225, 1.3170.

Trading tips

It is relevant to open pending long positions from the levels of 1.3375, 1.3355, 1.3290 with the target at 1.3530 and stop loss 1.3240.

LiteForex analitics. YM: general review

Current trend

The Dow Jones index is slightly recovering and trading above support level of 24218.8 (Murrey [2/8]). Demand in the markets was caused by the news that the Vice-Premier of China and a representative of the US Treasury discussed the next stage of negotiations.

The US dollar is strengthening against the backdrop of political risks that are associated with Brexit. On the other hand, economists at Goldman Sachs, a major investment bank, predict that the Fed may delay the further tightening of monetary policy next year, which in turn will support the stock market and reduce USD exchange rate. However, this is only a preliminary assessment and the regulator will make its decisions based on economic data.

The second important event for the market is the political crisis in the United States. It became known that the former lawyer of Donald Trump may be sentenced to prison because of tax evasion and various frauds during the election campaign. As a result, Democrats can begin hearings about the impeachment of the current US president.

Today, data on producer price index in the United States will be published.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at the level of 80 points and indicates the possible correction.
Resistance levels: 24609.4, 24722.0.
Support levels: 24218.8, 23982.0.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the resistance level of 24609.4 with take-profit at 24218.8 and stop loss at 24722.0.

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

Current trend

Gold prices declined slightly on Thursday, updating the record lows of December 7.

Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Thursday failed to provide significant support to USD, but investors were focused on the further development of US-China trade relations. Anyway, the published figure for the number of initial jobless claims for the week on December 7 dropped sharply from 233K to 206K, which was better than expected 226K.

Today, traders are focused on the US retail sales data. Analysts expect a sharp slowdown in November from +0.8% MoM to +0.1% MoM, which could have a negative impact on USD. There will also be published the November statistics on industrial production and preliminary December data on business activity.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is declining more actively, but is rapidly approaching its minimum levels, which indicates the risks associated with the oversold instrument.

Technical indicators do not contradict further development of the "bearish" trend in the short term.

Resistance levels: 1247.00, 1250.66, 1255.00.
Support levels: 1240.00, 1237.16, 1233.08, 1229.84.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1247.00. Take profit — 1255.00. Stop loss — 1244.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
A breakdown of 1240.00 or 1237.16 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1229.84 or 1226.11. Stop loss — 1243.00 or 1245.00. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: the pair is growing

Current trend

For two and a half months, the USD/CAD pair has been trading within an upward channel due to the ambiguous Canadian statistics and the growing demand for the American currency. In early December, the price fell to the key support level of 1.3170, failed to overcome it and sharply rose to a local maximum of 1.3450. It was followed by a correction, which was replaced by the current upward impulse with testing of new local highs.

This week, strong data on the US construction sector were published, but traders are waiting for new statistics that can affect the instrument. Today, special attention should be paid to inflation level data in Canada and the Fed's decision on monetary policy. In the second half of the week, GDP and Retail Sales will be released in Canada, and employment market data will be published in the USA.

Support and resistance

In the medium term, the trend will continue, as the growth rate of the economy and key US macroeconomic indicators are increasing. The price can rise to levels of 1.3595 and 1.3785, which were tested at the end of 2016 and the middle of 2017.

Technically, the pair stays within the upward channel, which is supported by the technical indicators’ readings: MACD volumes of long positions are growing, Bollinger bands are directed upwards.

Resistance levels: 1.3495, 1.3530, 1.3570, 1.3595, 1.3650, 1.3785.
Support levels: 1.3450, 1.3390, 1.3375, 1.3355, 1.3290, 1.3225, 1.3170.

Trading tips

It is relevant to increase the volumes of long positions from the current level and open pending long positions from the levels of 1.3450, 1.3390 with the targets at 1.3595, 1.3785 and stop loss 1.3310.

LiteForex analitics. USD/CHF: general analysis

Current trend

USD strengthened slightly against CHF: the pair is now trading near the resistance level of 6/8 Murrey or 0.9948. If the currency can consolidate higher, then the next target will be the level of 7/8 Murrey or 0.9979.

USD may be affected negatively by a significant drop in the stock market. If there is no reversal in the near future, the current decline will be greatest since 2008: only last week, indices lost more than 6%. The leaders of the largest investment banks said that they had enough funds on their balance sheets for lending business and other market operations. On this issue, the Presidential Group on Financial Markets and the Fed will hold a working meeting under the leadership of Stephen Mnuchin.

The second negative point for USD is the shutdown of a part of US government since Donald Trump could not agree with the Senate about government spending. The US president planned to add to the expenditure side a project to build a wall on the Mexico border for a total of $5 billion but the Senate did not agree to sign the bill.

Today, there is no strong movement expected in the market, since many institutions do not conduct financial operations on Christmas Eve.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at 68 points and does not give signals for opening positions.
Resistance levels: 0.9948, 0.9979.
Support levels: 0.9918, 0.9887.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.9979 with the target at 0.9887 and stop loss 1.0003.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

On Wednesday, the US dollar strengthened significantly against most majors, with the exception of the yen. Despite the correction that began during Asian trading, the US currency did not lose its accumulated advantage. The overall decline in the US stock market contributes to strengthening of the dollar. Investor interest in the USD returns amid fears of a slowdown in economic growth in the world in general and in China in particular. Macroeconomic events that can affect the dollar rate today include statistics from the United States on ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (15:15 GMT+2), Initial Jobless Claims (15:30 GMT+2), as well as statistics on ISM Manufacturing PMI (17:00 GMT+2). It is expected that ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will remain unchanged at the level of 179K in December, and the number of initial jobless claims will rise to 220K per week from 216K a week earlier. SM Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 57.7 points in December from 59.3 points a month earlier. If the forecasts prove right, the rate will fall under pressure.

EUR/USD

Quotes of the pair EUR/USD decreased to 1.1361 due to the strengthened USD. In the absence of news from euro area, the movement of the instrument will be influenced by the statistics from the United States.

GBP/USD

Quotes of GBP/USD went down to 1.2547 under pressure of the strengthening USD. Today, investors will focus on Construction PMI in the UK. The indicator is expected to fall to 52.9 points in December from 53.4 points a month earlier. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.

USD/JPY

After active decline and testing the support level of 104.68, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY quotes managed to recover some of the lost positions, correcting to the area of 106.70. Today, the stock exchanges in Japan are closed, so the dynamics of the instrument will be influenced by news from the United States.

AUD/USD

Quotes of the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session fell to the level of 0.6762, after which they corrected to the level of 0.6958 rather quickly. Due to the absence of significant macroeconomic releases in Australia, the movement of the instrument is mostly technical.

Gold

Quotes of gold demonstrate a positive trend during the Asian trading having reached 1290.00.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

USD strengthened moderately against most majors during today's Asian session, after an active decline on Monday, caused by the publication of weak data on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which was worse than expected and fell to 57.6 points in December from 60.7 points a month earlier. Investors reacted to this statistics by selling the US currency. The growth of the instrument observed during the Asian session is of a technical nature. Macroeconomic statistics able to influence USD include JOLTs Job Openings (17:00 GMT+2).

EUR/USD

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair, supported by positive statistics on retail sales in the euro area, and amid a general weakening of the US currency, rose to 1.1483, however, during Asian trading, they corrected to the level of 1.1441. Today, investors will pay attention to statistics on the Business Climate in the euro area. The indicator is expected to fall to 0.99 points in December from 1.09 points a month earlier. If the forecast proves right, the euro may fall under pressure.

GBP/USD

Quotes of the pair GBP/USD increased to 1.2770 due to the decline of USD. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data on Halifax House Price Index. It is predicted that the value of the indicator in annual terms will rise to 0.4% in December from 0.3% a month earlier, and in monthly terms it will rise to 0.5% in December from –1.4% a month earlier.

USD/JPY

Quotes of the pair USD/JPY show moderate positive dynamics reaching the level of 108.75. Due to the absence of macroeconomic releases from Japan, the movement of the pair's exchange rate will be affected by US statistics.

AUD/USD

Quotes of the AUD/USD pair are moving within the narrow range of 0.7113–0.7148 having changed only slightly. Published at night, data from Australia indicated a decrease in the trade balance surplus to 1.930 billion dollars in November from 2.316 billion dollars a month earlier, but did not affect the rate of the instrument significantly.

Gold

During the Asian session, quotes of gold fell to 1282.00 due to correction of USD.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

Morning Market Review
2019-01-10 09:49 (GMT+2)
US dollar is falling against most majors. Yesterday’s statements by the Fed representatives put pressure on the instrument. Chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, said that the regulator could postpone the next rate increase due to uncertainty about the prospects for the American economy. Eric Rosengren, the Boston Fed president, also proposes to postpone the increase in interest rates, and the current monetary policy, in his opinion, is appropriate under the current economic conditions. Investors reacted to these statements by selling the US currency. Macroeconomic events that can affect the dollar rate today include the statistics on initial jobless claims in the US (15:30 GMT+2), as well as the speech by the Fed Head Jerome Powell (19:00 GMT+2).

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair, supported by positive statistics on unemployment in the eurozone and the general weakening of the dollar, has risen to 1.1555. Today, investors will pay attention to the publication of ECB Account of Monetary Policy Meeting.

GBP/USD

Quotations of the pair GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.2782 due to the general weakening of USD. In the absence of news from the UK, the movement of the instrument will be influenced by the news from the United States.

USD/JPY

Quotes of the USD/JPY pair fell to 107.81 amid USD sales, triggered by statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows a moderate positive trend against the background of the general weakening of the US dollar, having risen to the level of 0.7186.

Gold

Gold quotes returned to the weekly highs and are trading at 1296.90 due to the weakened USD.