LiteForex аналитика. Утренний обзор рынка
EUR/USD
The European currency is relatively stable against the US dollar during trading at the Asian session on February 8. Investors take profits after a confident euro rally throughout the current trading week.
The US currency continues to be in demand among investors, despite the publication of poor macroeconomic data. In addition, the market is actively discussing possible postponing of the planned meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping from February to the end of March. In general, optimism around the possible completion of the US-Chinese trade conflict has been declining recently, and the White House economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said that the countries are still far from concluding a deal.
European macroeconomic releases are often weak. The ECB economic bulletin, which had a significant pressure on the euro position, was published the day before. The document notes that growing external negative factors lead to an increase in risks for the European economy. Economic indicators show negative dynamics, therefore, in the near future, the regulator expects a slowdown in economic growth. For 2019, the growth forecast was revised from the previous +1.9% to +1.3%.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is trading in both directions during the Asian session on February 8. The British currency reacted quite actively to the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England the day before, but managed to show a slight increase in the afternoon session, having corrected after a steady decline throughout the week.
As expected, the Bank of England retained its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, and the decision was unanimous. The regulator also did not change other parameters of monetary policy, maintaining the volume of the bond purchase program at 435B pounds. At the same time, the Bank of England lowered forecasts for economic growth for the current year from 1.7% to 1.2%, noting a significant increase in uncertainty, primarily due to Brexit.
The market is waiting for the outcome of negotiations between British Prime Minister Theresa May and EU leaders on additional amendments to the Brexit agreement on the Irish border.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar shows a negative trend during the Asian session on February 8, approaching strong support at the level of 0.7000. The instrument is under pressure from the RBA meeting minutes. The regulator has revised downward its own forecasts for economic growth for 2019-2020. At the end of this year, the RBA expects Australian economy to grow by 2.75% YoY and does not expect a change in this indicator by 2020.
The regulator also notes a significant reduction in inflation risks. By June 2019, the Consumer Price Index may slow down to +1.25% from the current +1.8%, after which it will gradually recover and reach target level of 2% closer to mid-2020.
USD/JPY
The US dollar continues to trade lower against the Japanese yen, but instrument activity remains quite low. Statistics from Japan published during the Asian session on February 8 did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the pair.
Household Spending in Japan rose by 0.1% YoY in December after declining by 0.6% YoY last month. Analysts had expected a more active growth of 0.8% YoY. Average Cash Earnings indicator, which shows the average pre-tax income of an employee, increased by 1.8% YoY, having accelerated by 0.1% since last month.
Gold
Gold prices are consolidating after an attempt to reduce this week. The day before, prices showed an increase, departing from local lows amid increased uncertainty around the trade conflict between the PRC and the US and the publication of disappointing macroeconomic data. In particular, the market reacted negatively to the slowdown in the German economy and the release of updated forecasts from the ECB.
