LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, retreating from local highs of February 6. The reason for the depreciation was the strengthening of USD amid a rather optimistic process of trade negotiations between the United States and China. The minutes of the last Fed meeting also had a noticeable effect. On February 21, the round of talks should end with a summit meeting, after which it will become clear whether additional time is needed, or the parties will be able to find a compromise before the current deadline of March 1. On Thursday, investors are focused on European statistics on the dynamics of business activity. The composite Markit Manufacturing PMI may increase in February from 51.0 to 51.1 points.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the pound has corrected against the US dollar and is again trying to grow during the Asian session on February 21. Investors are playing out ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States and are following the outcome of the negotiations of the British Prime Minister Theresa May with the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, which took place yesterday. Despite the optimistic tone of the final communiqué, analysts are still afraid of delaying the process, as the postponement of the Brexit deadlines does not seem to be impossible. Anyway, the document reflected the consent of the parties to further work aimed at finding opportunities for the most comfortable implementation of Brexit process for all participants. Both parties also confirmed once again that they would not accept the appearance of a “hard border” on the island of Ireland.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed strong growth during the Asian session on February 21, responding to the appearance of a strong report on the labor market. At the same time, investors very quickly lost their “bullish” sentiments, which led to a correction of the instrument to the opening levels. According to the report, in January, employment rose by 39.1K jobs after rising by 21.6K last month. Analysts expected a much more modest growth of 15.0K. The share of the employed population increased slightly and amounted to 65.7%  in January, with an expected level of 65.6%. The unemployment remained unchanged at 5%.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose significantly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, updating local highs since February 14. During the Asian session on February 21, the instrument is trading in both directions due to the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the expectation of new drivers in the market. Nikkei manufacturing sector activity index in February showed a decline from 50.3 to 48.5 points, breaking down the psychological level of 50 points for the first time since September 2016. With the opening of the American session, the publication of similar indicators is expected in the United States.

Oil

Oil prices resumed growth after some consolidation, receiving support from increased optimism about the US-China negotiation process. On Thursday, there should be a final meeting, which may mark the parties reaching a compromise. Otherwise, Trump's administration will probably try to push the March deadline, as previously noted in the president's speeches. A certain pressure on the quotes was exerted by the yesterday report of the American Petroleum Institute (API), which reflected the growth of stocks as of February 15 by 1.260 million barrels (after a decrease of 0.998 million over the previous period). On Thursday, investors are awaiting the publication of the report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR shows ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar, remaining close to the local highs, updated in the middle of last week. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe, published on Friday, failed to support the euro, so investors retained their correction attitude. Investors were focused on data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone in January, as well as on statistics from Germany, which recently shows a weakening of economic growth. The Eurozone consumer price index in January fell by 1.0% MoM after zero dynamics last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of 1.1% MoM. German statistics reflected the preservation of the previous GDP growth rates in 4Q2018: by 0.0% QoQ and 0.6% YoY. Investors were disappointed by the Ifo business data. The February index of business optimism fell from 99.3 to 98.5 points, below the market expectations of 99.0 points. The index of economic expectations for the same period fell from 94.2 to 93.8 points, with a constant forecast.

GBP/USD

The pound is trading in different directions, being close to local maxima, updated on February 20. Moods in the market remain extremely changeable, as investors await the resolution of the Brexit issue. There's little more than a month until the UK should leave the EU, and there is still no noticeable progress in the negotiations between British Prime Minister Theresa May and Brussels. May’s failure to negotiate only heightens internal tensions in the Parliament, which can adversely affect later. However, May's team is still optimistic. She intends to return to Brussels again on Tuesday, which will shift the date of the next voting in the Parliament by March 12. On February 25, investors will follow the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar is trading within an uptrend against the US one. The instrument is moderately supported by corrective sentiment on the US dollar since investors have no intention to open new positions before the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Earlier, Trump has already met with the leader of the PRC and noted the productivity of the negotiations, which has improved market sentiment. Also, the market is waiting for Trump to meet with DPRK leader Kim Jong-un. The main issue of the meeting is the further denuclearization of North Korea.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to trade against the yen without a clear trend, playing out the contradictory news. The Japanese currency is in demand due to low investor interest in risk, while the dollar is awaiting resolution of the US-China trade dispute. Moderate support for USD is provided by the further growth of US government bonds, but the macroeconomic background remains generally ambiguous. On Monday, investors expect the publication of the Chicago Fed national activity index and Manufacturing business index from the Dallas Fed. In Japan, December statistics on leading and coincident indices will be released.

Oil

Oil prices once again demonstrate a tendency to grow, but market activity remains low. The main support factors for quotes remain hopes for a resolution of the US-China trade conflict and the continued decline in oil supplies from OPEC. On Friday, additional support for quotes was provided by Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA. For the week of January 18, the number of active oil rigs in the United States decreased from 857 to 853 units, which was the third decline in a row. Despite the reduction, the overall crude oil production in the United States continues to grow. Last week, the US Department of Energy reported an increase in production to 12 million barrels per day, which is a new recor

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR against USD rose steadily, renewing local highs since February 6. The macroeconomic background remains controversial. Investors are focused on the protracted Brexit negotiation process and fear that the UK release date will still be rescheduled. Yesterday’s speech of the ECB representative Yves Mersch also did not have a significant impact on EUR position. Mersch confirmed that the regulator, as before, intends to promote its own instant payment system TIPS, which allows Europeans and legal entities to make instant transfers regardless of the mode of operation of their local banks.

GBP/USD

GBP against USD rose significantly, renewing its record highs since September 20, 2018. Such a significant increase was due to the speech of British Prime Minister Theresa May, which gave the British parliament the right to postpone Brexit if the necessary changes to the final agreement are not made. Until March 12, which is scheduled for the next parliamentary vote, May will try to hold a series of meetings with European Commission and to achieve a solution to controversial issues on the Irish border. In case of failure, on March 13, a vote to leave the country according to a “hard” scenario will be held. If the parliamentarians will again be against it, then on March 14, there will be the third vote for the postponement of the final UK exit from the EU.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, AUD is slightly rising, trading around weekly highs with moderate support from poor US dollar positions. In addition, investors expect a positive resolution of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic background of Australia remains ambiguous. Wednesday’s 2018 Q4 Construction Work Done release declined by 3.1% QoQ after a decline by 2.8% QoQ in the previous period. Investors were counting on a positive trend of +0.4% QoQ.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD fell against the JPY, departing from local highs, renewed at the beginning of the week. The emergence of negative dynamics on the dollar was due to the ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Thus, December Housing Starts index decreased from 1.214 million to 1.078 million houses, which was significantly lower than analysts' forecasts of 1.250 million. In percentage terms, the decline was more than 11%. At the same time, the December housing price index from S&P/CaseShiller increased by 4.2% YoY, slowing down against the previous +4.6% YoY. Analysts predicted a growth rate of +4.5% YoY.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices resumed their growth and rebounded slightly after a significant decline the day before, caused by Donald Trump's appeal to OPEC, in which he asked not to hurry with price increases. Growth was due to API the report on energy reserves, reflecting a sharp decline in stocks by 4.20 million barrels by February 22. Last time, the figure increased by 1.26 million barrels. In turn, the risks of resuming the operation of El-Sharara, the largest oil field in Libya, prevented further strengthening.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

On Thursday, the euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar. In the first half of the day, EUR was trading in an upward trend and managed to update local highs since February 5. With the opening of the European session, quotes went down actively, which was a market reaction to the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics and a sharp deterioration in the prospects for resolving the US-China trade conflict. Yesterday, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said that the differences are still very serious and promises and positive intentions are not enough for their resolution. It also became known that the negotiations between the United States and the DPRK also ended in vain, which only increased the overall level of uncertainty.

GBP/USD

On Thursday, the British pound showed a decline against the US dollar, departing from its local highs, updated on Wednesday. The overall decline in investor sentiment contributed to a decrease in the instrument. In particular, the market negatively met the news about the failure of the US-DPRK negotiations since, as many analysts believe, this could be an additional negative signal for the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. The pound is also pressured by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Published yesterday, the consumer confidence indicator showed a slight increase in February from -14 to -13 points, still reflecting the predominance of negative sentiment among British consumers. On March 1, investors will focus on the statistics on consumer lending and the Markit Manufacturing PMI in February.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is developing a downward trend against the US one, retreating to the last week lows. The instrument is pressured by deteriorating prospects for resolving the US-China trade dispute after the US trade representative once again highlighted the seriousness of the existing differences. Published yesterday, the statistics from the United States also contributed to the development of "bearish" dynamics in the instrument. According to preliminary estimates, the US GDP in 4Q2018 grew by 2.6% YoY after rising by 3.4% YoY in Q3. Despite a significant slowdown in economic growth, the figure was still significantly above the forecasts of 2.3% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is noticeably strengthening against the Japanese yen, updating local highs since December 20. The reason for the "bullish" dynamics is ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan, as well as the continuing uncertainty of the US-China trade negotiations. Statistics released on Friday showed a rise in the consumer price index in the Tokyo region in February by 0.6% YoY, after the growth of 0.4% YoY last month. The consumer inflation excluding fresh food rose by 1.1% YoY in February, which coincided with January data. At the same time, the January unemployment rate unexpectedly strengthened from 2.4% to 2.5%. In turn, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in February showed steady growth from 48.5 to 48.9 points, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts. However, the figure is still below the psychological level of 50 points.

Oil

On Thursday, oil prices consolidated after moderate growth the day before, which was triggered by a sharp decline in stocks of petroleum products in the US warehouses. The development of corrective sentiment was caused by the weak macroeconomic indicators from China, which once again reminded the market of the risks of slowing global economy. The instrument is also pressured by continued tensions between the United States and China. On March 1, investors are awaiting the publication of the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the United States. The last reports have indicated a reduction in their number, which, however, does not prevent the United States from increasing production rates to record levels.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

On Monday, the European currency showed a significant decline against the US dollar, returning to local minima of February 19. The reason for the strengthening of the negative dynamics was the news that the US and China are close to concluding a trade agreement after China offered to remove part of its import duties. The final agreement may be signed at the end of March at a special summit. On Monday, moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone hampered a more confident decline in the euro. Sentix indicator of investor confidence in March rose from -3.7 to -2.2 points with a forecast of -3.1 points. In February, the producer price index rose by 0.4% MoM and by 3.0% YoY after falling by 0.8% MoM and rising by 3.0% YoY last month. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the statistics on business activity in Europe and the United States, January data on retail sales in the Eurozone, as well as a monthly report on the state of the US budget for January.

GBP/USD

The British pound began a new week with an active decline, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed at the end of last week. The negative dynamics of the instrument was due to the strengthening of the US currency against the background of improved prospects for resolving the US-China trade conflict in late March. In turn, the pound was weakened by the macroeconomic statistics from the UK published on Monday. Construction PMI in the UK in February fell from 50.6 to 49.5 points, with a forecast of 50.3 points. The index dropped below the psychological level of 50 points for the first time since April 2018. Today, the pound is also trading in a downtrend. Investors have reacted negatively to the publication of the report on retail sales in the UK. In February, the BRC index showed a decline of 0.1% YoY after rising by 1.8% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting the growth of 0.1% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows a bearish trend, trading near local minima since February 12. Despite a number of good publications from Australia, investors have little interest in buying AUD, especially in view of improved prospects for resolving the US-China trade conflict. Moderate support for the Australian currency on Tuesday is provided by data on the activity index in the service sector, which rose in February from 44.3 to 44.5 points, as well as the trade balance deficit, which fell in Q4 from 10.8 billion to 7.2 billion Australian dollars. The focus of the Asian session is the RBA interest rate decision with the publication of related comments. As expected, the regulator left the rate at 1.5%, noting that current policies continue to support the Australian economy. RBA also kept the previous forecasts. By the end of the year, the Australian economy is expected to grow by 3%. The level of consumer inflation in the current year will be slightly below the target level of 2% and will be able to overcome it only by 2020.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow moderately against the Japanese yen, trading near local highs updated on March 1. Investors are optimistic about the progress in the US-China trade negotiations and are awaiting the signing of final documents at the end of March. Against this background, there is a growing interest in risk in the market, which, of course, does not contribute to the strengthening of the Japanese currency. In turn, on Tuesday, the published Markit Services PMI supports the yen. In February, the figure rose from 51.6 to 52.3 points, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts of an increase to 52.1 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed moderate growth at the beginning of the week, receiving support from the continued decline in production from OPEC, as well as positive comments on the US-China trade negotiations. It became known that China is ready to start a number of structural economic reforms, as well as to cancel the response import tariffs for a number of American goods. The data on the dynamics of active drilling rigs in the USA last week, which fell to the lowest level in the last 9 months, provide moderate support to oil. On Tuesday, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of February 25.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency is consolidating against the US dollar after a steady decline at the beginning of the week, which led to the renewal of local lows of February 19. On Wednesday, the euro was supported by technical correction factors, as well as by weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The ADP Employment Change showed growth by 183K in February after rising by 300K in January (however, the forecast was 189K). The US trade balance deficit increased in December and reached USD -59.8 billion, while analysts counted on USD -57.9 billion. Last month, the deficit was just over USD -50 billion. During the Asian session today, the instrument is trading in both directions, and investors are waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. The focus is on statistics for the Eurozone's GDP for 4Q2018, as well as the ECB decision on the interest rate with the accompanying press conference.

GBP/USD

The British pound shows an ambiguous trend against the US dollar, trying to reverse up after a steady decline, dropping the instrument to its lows of February 26. Uncertain prospects around Brexit continue to pressure the pound, while corrective moods are largely related to the technical factors. Also, investors reacted negatively to the publication of a weak ADP report on employment in the US, suggesting that Friday statistics on the US labor market may be worse than expected. There's no progress on Brexit negotiations. EU negotiator Michel Barnier reported yesterday the "constructive atmosphere", but it does not lead to any decisions.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar develops a slight increase during the Asian session, correcting after a significant decline yesterday. On Wednesday, the Australian currency was pressured by disappointing data on Australian GDP. The growth of the Australian economy slowed from the previous 2.8% YoY to 2.3% YoY, which turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 2.5% YoY. Today, the "Australian" is supported by new statistics, in addition to technical factors. The AiG Construction PMI in February rose from 43.1 to 43.8 points. Retail sales rose 0.1% MoM in January, after declining by 0.4% MoM last month. The trade surplus in January rose sharply from 3.7 billion to 4.5 billion Australian dollars, while analysts expected it to decline to 3 billion. The reason for such rapid growth was the steady increase in exports in January by 5.0% after a decline of 1.2% in December.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is correcting against the Japanese currency, retreating from the updated local maximums of December 20. The development of the “bearish” dynamics of the instrument is largely supported by the corrective sentiment on the dollar amid the publication of not very impressive statistics. In addition, the market expects progress in the US-China trade negotiations, which are close to concluding a final deal. On Wednesday, a certain pressure on the yen was made by the representative of the Bank of Japan, Yutaka Harada, who complained about the growing external risks and urged the regulator to additional policy easing if inflation does not reach the target level of 2%. Investors are preparing for Friday when there will be a large amount of interesting macroeconomic releases. In particular, Japan will publish annual GDP data for 4Q2018, the changes in wages, and household spending in January.

Oil

Oil prices continue to show ambiguous dynamics, remaining close to the highs of the beginning of the year. Yesterday, the instrument was pressured by published forecasts from major producers in the United States, reflecting the increase in the dynamics of shale oil. In addition, investors reacted negatively to the report of the US Department of Energy, which confirmed the dynamics of the previously published ADP report, and reflected a sharp increase in oil reserves on February 25 at 7.069 million barrels after declining by 8.647 million barrels over the past reporting week. The overall rate of oil production in the United States remained unchanged at 12.100 million barrels per day.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro started a new week with moderate growth against the US dollar, continuing to regain last week's losses when the market reacted to a significant reduction in the ECB's economic growth and inflation forecasts for 2019. The macroeconomic background from Europe remains ambiguous. On March 11, investors were disappointed with the publication of German statistics. Industrial output in January decreased by 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.8% MoM in December. Analysts were expecting the growth of 0.4% MoM. YoY, the index slowed down from -2.7% to -3.3%. Exports in January showed zero dynamics after a growth of 1.5% MoM in December. In contrast, imports accelerated from 0.7% MoM to 1.5% MoM. This led to a decrease in the trade surplus from EUR 19.9 billion to EUR 18.5 billion.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a sharp increase on Monday, amid news that Prime Minister Theresa May managed to agree with the European Commission on a number of amendments to the Brexit deal. In particular, May managed to settle differences on the Ireland border issue. The European Union will abandon the previously announced protective mechanism to ensure a free border on the island, and the parties will have to work out a final solution in 2020. The pound was also growing during the Asian session today, but now the “bullish” activity on the instrument has noticeably decreased. On Tuesday, investors are awaiting a vote in the British Parliament on an updated Brexit agreement. If the parliamentarians reject the agreement, on March 13 a vote will be held on withdrawal without an agreement. On March 14, there may be a vote for the postponement of Brexit.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar on March 11, retreating even further from the local lows updated late last week. The growth of the instrument was largely technical since there were no interesting macroeconomic statistics. In turn, US data provided moderate support for USD. In January, retail sales rose by 2.0% MoM after a decrease of 1.6% MoM in December. Analysts were expecting zero dynamics. Today the instrument is stable and is trading near the opening levels. A certain pressure on AUD is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Mortgage loans issued in January decreased by 2.6% MoM after rising by 6.0% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth of 1.0% MoM. The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index in February fell from 4 to 2 points, which was worse than analysts' forecasts. The index of conditions for the same period decreased from 7 to 4 points.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow moderately against the Japanese yen, gradually recovering from a decline last week. The macroeconomic background remains favorable for the US currency, which determines the recovery of "bullish" sentiment. In turn, the yen lacks support amid sufficiently high investor interest in risk. On Tuesday, investors will focus on the US consumer inflation statistics for February. Analysts do not expect significant changes in the dynamics of growth of CPIs, which, in general, may further strengthen USD.

Oil

Oil prices rose moderately on March 11, responding to Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih optimistic statements that corrections to the current OPEC agreement are unlikely until June when the next meeting of the cartel will take place. Quotes are also supported by the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms published last week, reflecting a steady decline in the number of drilling rigs. However, it still has little effect on the rate of oil production in the United States, remaining at record levels. Today, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of March 4.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro rose against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of March 5. Moderate support for the euro was provided by good macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. Industrial output in January rose by 1.4% MoM after falling by 0.9% MoM last month. Analysts had hoped for the emergence of positive dynamics, however, they were counting on a more modest growth of 1.0% MoM. YoY, production still shows a negative trend of -1.1% (significantly higher than forecasts of -2.1%y). In turn, the published macroeconomic statistics from the USA has managed to please investors with an increase in the volume of orders for durable goods. In January, the indicator rose by 0.4% MoM after rising by 1.34% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of -0.5% MoM.

GBP/USD

The British pound rose significantly against the US dollar on Wednesday, rising to new record highs since June 14, 2018. After the failure of the vote on the Brexit deal in the British parliament on March 12, which caused the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics, the pound is generally trading positively, hoping to postpone the exit from the EU. Yesterday, the Parliament also rejected the idea of a country leaving the European Union without the deal, which leads Prime Minister Teresa May to the only possible way out of the situation. On March 14, there will be the third vote, on the postponement of Brexit. Speaking yesterday, May once again called on parliamentarians to approve the current version of the deal with the EU, since, without an agreement, the UK would have to ask for a longer delay, and this can only lead to a general complication of the process. There are quite a few Brexit opponents, and they will definitely try to take advantage of this hitch to lobby for a re-referendum. In addition, in May 2019, regular elections to the European Parliament will be held.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics on Wednesday and is actively declining today. The instrument is pressured by weak statistics on industrial output from China. In January, sales increased by 5.3% YoY after rising by 5.7% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting the growth of 5.56% YoY. The retail sales index in China in January rose by 8.2% YoY without showing the expected decline to 8.1% YoY. Moderate support for AUD was also provided by expectations of consumer price inflation in Australia. In March, the index rose by 4.1% MoM after rising by 3.7% MoM last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar shows an upward trend against the Japanese yen. The US currency is still supported by fairly optimistic market sentiment and moderate investor interest in risk. Published on Wednesday, macroeconomic statistics from the USA failed to meet all expectations of analysts but proved to be quite good, unlike Japanese statistics. Nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft shipments, in January rose by 0.8% MoM after falling by 0.9% MoM last month. The experts counted on the growth of only 0.1% MoM. However, the producer price index in February rose by a mere 0.1% MoM and 1.9% YoY, with forecasts of 0.2% MoM and 1.9% YoY. Japanese statistics reflected a sharp decline in demand for machine-building products. In January, the indicator fell by 5.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY. Experts counted on -1.7% MoM and -2.3% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices are moderately rising, updating local highs of November 2018. One of the main growth factors was the EIA report on inventory dynamics published yesterday. As of March 8, oil and petroleum products in US warehouses decreased by 3.862 million barrels, after rising by 7.069 million over the previous period. Analysts expected growth of 2.655 million barrels. In addition, the report reflected a reduction in the overall production in the US from 12.100 million to 12.000 million barrels per day. During the Asian session on March 14, the instrument is trading in both directions, pressured by weak statistics on industrial output in China.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro continues to grow moderately against the US dollar, updating local highs of March 4. On Monday, after the update of the highs, the euro declined significantly due to the strengthening of the US dollar index, but the "bullish" mood on the instrument remained. Moderate support for the instrument was provided by data on the Eurozone trade balance. In January, the balance surplus increased from 16.0 billion to 17.0 billion euros, which turned out to be significantly better than forecasts, which suggested a decrease to 13.2 billion. In turn, the American statistics was neutral. The NAHB retail housing prices index in March remained at 62 points, contrary to forecasts of growth to 63 points. On Tuesday, investors will be focused on a block of indicators on economic sentiment in the Eurozone and Germany from ZEW. Also, traders are interested in Construction PMI in the Eurozone in January.

GBP/USD

The British pound returned to decline on Monday, updating local lows of March 13. However, by the end of the day session, the instrument managed to win back almost half of the losses, and today's trading is going upwards. Yesterday, the pound was pressured by news that House of Commons Speaker John Bercow blocked Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposal to hold a re-vote on the current version of the agreement with the EU. Bercow stated that the government could not put the same proposal to the vote twice. Thus, May will have to ask Brussels for a longer delay, since the process of developing a new agreement will be extremely difficult. The process of postponement itself can also be very painful since this requires the unanimous decision of all EU member states. Today, investors will pay attention to the data on the UK labor market in January/February.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows moderate growth, receiving support from the weak positions of the US currency. Today, the instrument is trading in both directions, responding to the publication of the RBA minutes of March 5 and the dynamics of housing prices. In 4Q2018, the housing price index decreased by 2.4% QoQ and 5.1% YoY, which was noticeably worse than the data for the previous period (-1.5% QoQ and -1.9% YoY). Analysts had expected -2.0% QoQ and -0.4% YoY. The published RBA protocol did not have a significant impact on the instrument since it did not show anything new. As before, the regulator complained about the growing external risks, especially in Europe and Asia, however, noted the positive impact of rising oil and coal prices.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has returned to decline against the Japanese yen, updating local lows of March 14 today. The US currency is weakening amid increasing uncertainty caused by the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics. In addition, investors are anxiously awaiting news regarding the US-China trade negotiations. Recently, the media reported that the meeting of the two heads of state could be postponed from late March to April, but it has not yet received official confirmation. The data on industrial production in Japan published on Monday provided the yen with moderate support: in January, the index rose by 0.3% YoY against the zero dynamics of last month.

Oil

Oil prices continued moderate growth during the new week in the market, supported by the efforts of OPEC+. After the meeting of the OPEC+ member countries in Azerbaijan, it was decided to cancel the April meeting of the cartel, where, as expected, the future of the current agreement was to be discussed. Thus, it is actually extended until June, when a new meeting is scheduled. In addition, exporting countries report the toughening of the obligations under the agreement, which allows the market to remain stable in the context of growing US oil production. On Tuesday, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of March 15.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed a confident decline against the US dollar on Thursday, departing from local highs of February 4, updated the day before. The decline in the pair was largely due to technical factors of the correction of USD after a long decline. In addition, investors fix their profits before the weekend. Macroeconomic statistics from the United States, which supported the dollar on Thursday, include the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. In March, the figure rose sharply from -4.1 to 13.7 points, with a forecast of growth only to 4.5 points. Initial Jobless Claims for the week on March 15 decreased from 230K to 221K, which turned out to be better than market expectations (225K). Today, investors are focused on the statistics on business activity in the Eurozone (and separately France and Germany) and the United States. Also, the market expects representatives of the ECB Luis de Guindos and Yves Mersch to speak.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics on Thursday, updating the local minima of March 11. There were lots of drivers for GBP, so the dynamics was extremely mixed. As expected, the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged. The key rate remained at 0.75%, and the decision was made unanimously. The QE program has kept its volume of 435 billion pounds. In the accompanying statement, the BoE spoke a lot about the risks around Brexit, noting that it is now reasonable to take a wait-and-see attitude. Meanwhile, the EU has approved a deferment option for the UK. If parliament manages to agree on the deal, the final date will be postponed to May 22. Otherwise, the new deadline will be April 12.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is developing a corrective decline, retreating from local highs, updated on March 21. The reason for the appearance of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument was an ambiguous report on the Australian labor market in February. Investors were optimistic about the decrease in the unemployment rate from 5.0% to 4.9% but were disappointed with the extremely weak growth in the employment rate - by 4.6K after 39.1K last month. Additional pressure was provided by an indicator of credit card spendings. In February, it rose by 6.4% YoY after rising by 6.9% YoY in January. Experts expected a slowdown of only up to 6.8% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on Thursday, recovering previously lost positions and retreating from the updated local minima of February 15. Technical factors contributed to the development of correctional dynamics for the dollar, as well as moderate optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the US, published the day before. Today, the instrument again is traded in both directions. Investors are focused on Japanese data on consumer prices and the Manufacturing PMI. The national consumer price index in February rose by 0.2%YoY after a similar increase in January. Analysts expected growth of up to 0.3% YoY. Excluding the price of fresh food, the index slowed down from 0.8% YoY to 0.7% YoY, while the forecast was 0.6% YoY. The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in March remained at 48.9 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed a decline on Thursday, retreating from local maxima following the large-scale correction of the US dollar. Quotes are still supported by the confident position of OPEC+, which promises a further restriction of production volumes by the largest suppliers. Additional support comes from data indicating a sharp decline in US oil stocks. On March 22, in addition to statistics on business activity, Baker Hughes will report on active oil platforms in the United States.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR rose steadily against USD, retreating from lows since March 12, renewed late last week. EUR was supported by an unexpectedly strong IFO Germany business sentiment data. The March German Business Expectations rose from 93.8 to 95.6 points while the forecast was 94.0 points. German IFO Business Climate Index jumped from 98.7 to 99.6 points, while analysts expected a decline to 98.5 points. German Current Assessment for the same period rose from 103.6 to 103.8 points, against the forecasts of a decline to 102.9 points. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument slightly increases, waiting for the appearance of new drivers on the market. On Tuesday, traders will focus on US housing market data. In Germany, April GfK German Consumer Climate will be released.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP moved horizontally against USD and closed in the red zone. The currency is still under pressure from the uncertain situation around Brexit. Until the end of the week, Theresa May has to get agreement between the British parliament and the EU but parliamentarians are not likely to unite. The media gets information that an increasing number of ministers insist on the imminent resignation of the Prime Minister, and the idea of a repeated referendum is growing stronger among the public sentiment. Yesterday, in her speech in the British Parliament, Theresa May acknowledged that she did not find enough support but would try to look for additional ways to bring the current version of the agreement to the third vote in parliament. Some analysts believe that May may take extreme measures and will offer parliamentarians approval of the agreement in exchange for his resignation. If the UK fails to approve a deal with the EU until March 29, on April 12, the country will have to follow the “hard” scenario.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD was actively growing against USD, balancing a decline at the end of the last trading week. The correction was due to a number of technical factors, while the macroeconomic background remained neutral. On Monday, a speech was made by the economic adviser to the head of the RBA, Lucy Ellis, which had no noticeable influence on the rate. Ellis's speech was devoted to household issues and in many respects repeated the main position of the regulator but she emphasized strong growth in the labor market. Over the past year, the employment rate has increased by more than 2%, while the unemployment rate has fallen below 5% for the first time in a long time (since 2011).

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD was trading ambiguously against the JPY, renewing its lows since February 8. The uncertain dynamics was due to the lack of significant macroeconomic publications at the beginning of the week. In addition, investors are concerned about the process of negotiations between the US and China on trade issues. Despite the assurances of Donald Trump that negotiations are proceeding well, the market fears a repetition of the North Korean scenario. A new round is due this week. Today, during the Asian session, USD is growing uncertainly. The instrument is supported by a document published on the eve of by Special Prosecutor Robert Muller, in which it is noted that a special commission did not find evidence of Donald Trump’s collusion with the Russian authorities during the 2016 election period.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices rose moderately, partially balancing the active decline at the end of last week. More confident gain is hampered by concerns about a slowdown in the global economy. In particular, investors fear that the negotiations between the US and China on a trade dispute may end in failure, which will have a negative impact on the Chinese economy. In addition, the markets were afraid of a possible recession in the US, as the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds continues to decline steadily. On Tuesday, investors are focused on US Housing Starts data the dynamics of Retail Sales, and also on the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves in the United States.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR fell against USD, retreating to its lows since March 12, under pressure from technical factors and a further decline in investor interest in risk amid growing uncertainty in the market. In particular, traders have ambiguously reacted to the situation with Brexit in the UK after the British parliament adopted the amendment and took control of the country's exit from the EU. It is expected that today, in the parliament a vote on a number of issues with a discussion of possible options for the development of the situation will be held. Meanwhile, April GfK German Consumer Climate fell from 10.7 to 10.4 points against the forecasts of growth to 10.8 points, which was the lowest level since May 2017. During the Asian session on March 27, EUR is also weakening. Today, the investors are focused on the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi and a number of other regulator’s representatives, such as Peter Praet, Sabine Lautenschlager, Yves Mersch, and Luis de Guindos.

GBP/USD

GBP continues to trade ambiguously, sharply reacting to any changes around Brexit. Earlier this week, British parliamentarians adopted an amendment to the law, which allowed parliament to take control of the Brexit process (previously it was held by the government of Theresa May). Now the parliament can feel lighter and discuss the most varied exit scenarios. However, this can only help to clarify the preferences of parliamentarians, while there is no time and possibilities left to coordinate new changes with the EU. The UK must approve a version of the agreement by the end of the week; otherwise, on April 12 it will have to leave the EU without a deal.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD rose steadily against USD, renewing its lows since March 21, after the publication of poor US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, Building Permits decreased by 1.6% MoM in February after decreasing by 0.7% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the indicator to –0.6% MoM. Housing Starts index also fell from 1.273 million to 1.162 million in February, which was worse than the forecast of 1.213 million. March Richmond Manufacturing Index decreased from 16 to 10 points, while the forecast was 12 points. However, today during the Asian session, AUD is weakening, quickly losing positions gained yesterday. The instrument is under pressure from statistics from China, indicating a sharp decline in profits of a number of large Chinese enterprises in January-February by 14%. The profit of large industrial enterprises decreased by 24.2% over the same period.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD rose steadily against the JPY, partially balancing a sharp decline at the end of last week. The emergence of poor US macroeconomic statistics and the overall low level of traders’ interest in risk did not support JPY. Instead, investors focused on a summary of updated forecasts from the Bank of Japan. The document is of a generalizing nature and is published once a year after the next meeting of the regulator on interest rate issues. The Bank reaffirmed its commitment to a target inflation rate of 2%, which is one of the key parameters in choosing the vector of monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator devoted a significant part of the report to external economic risks, noting the slowdown in China’s economy and the uncertainty of the UK’s exit from the EU.

Oil

This week, oil prices are rising and approaching local highs, renewed a week ago, supported by market uncertainty, as well as interruptions in oil supplies from Iran, Venezuela, and several other countries. Yesterday’s weekly report of the American Institute of oil reserves in the United States reflected the growth of reserves by 1.927 million barrels at March 22. The previous report indicated a reduction in reserves by 2.133 million barrels. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of a report on energy reserves from the US Department of Energy. If the official statistic confirms the growth of the indicator, the quotes may be slightly corrected downwards.