GBPUSD's Potential Downshift and Support Levels

Solid ECN – The pound sterling has pulled back from a significant level, the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance against the U.S. Dollar, resulting in the pair trading below 1.2827. Concurrently, the RSI indicator has retreated from the overbought area and is heading toward the 50 level.

This downshift could extend to the EMA 50, which aligns with the rising trendline.

Traders should pay close attention to the 61.8% Fibonacci support, which could present buying opportunities. If this level holds, the GBPUSD price will likely rise and retest the 1.2893 resistance.

However, if the rising trendline breaks, it's a clear sign that the bullish scenario should be invalidated. In this case, the consolidation phase will likely extend to the 1.2599 mark, the 50% Fibonacci support.

Therefore, we suggest observing the market's behavior around the EMA 50.

NZDUSD's Critical Levels: EMA 50 as the Decisive Barrier

Solid ECN – The NZDUSD currency pair failed to stabilize the price above the 38.2% Fibonacci support level, and consequently, it dipped below the descending trendline depicted in blue. The EMA 50 is currently preventing the price from dipping further. If this price breaches the 50-exponential moving average, the next target will likely be 0.6068, followed by the February low.

The 0.6215 mark is the pivotal point between a bull and bear market. If the New Zealand dollar breaks this resistance against the U.S. Dollar, the previously mentioned forecast should be invalidated, and traders must reevaluate the market accordingly.

Significant Silver Price Dip from Three-Year High

Solid ECN – Silver's price fell to approximately $24 per ounce, a slight decrease from the three-year peak of $24.4 per ounce in the prior session. This change occurred as investors closely monitored the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates following the latest U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) figures.

These figures, which showed that the annual and core consumer inflation rates were slightly higher than expected, have significantly influenced the market's anticipation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by June. Earlier, officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hinted at potential rate decreases in 2024, which further increased the attractiveness of safe-haven assets like silver.

GBPUSD Uptrend Signals: RSI Indicator's Positive Shift

Solid ECN – The pound sterling is coming back from the 50 EMA, and as of writing, it is trading at about 1.279. The ascending trendline depicted in red provides support alongside the EMA 50. Interestingly, The RSI indicator has returned above the signal line, indicating that the uptrend will likely resume.

From a technical standpoint, as long as GBPUSD trades above the 1.2745 mark, the bull market will remain valid and will likely aim for the 50% Fibonacci resistance, followed by the 61.8%.

Conversely, a dip below the EMA 50 would invalidate the bullish market.

EURUSD Bulls Await Consolidation

Solid ECN – As expected, the Euro rose in the last day's trading session against the U.S. Dollar. The EMA 50 and the Ichimoku cloud maintained the bull market. However, we noticed a long wick candlestick pattern formed in today's trading session, which could be construed as the beginning of a consolidation phase since it is a higher low.

From a technical standpoint, the market is bullish, but it is best to wait for the consolidation phase to be over. Please note that the EURUSD price should exceed the trendline in black for the uptrend to resume. In this scenario, the bullish market will be triggered and will likely aim for the 1.1 mark.

The lower band of the channel plays a pivotal role between the bull and bear markets. For the uptrend to be invalidated, the price must dip below the 38.2% Fibonacci support.

Australian Dollar Outlook: Bullish Trends and EMA 50 Support

Solid ECN – The Australian dollar has stabilized above the 38.2% Fibonacci support level and the previously broken descending channel. Interestingly, the ADX indicator is making a return above the 25 level, interpreted as a sign that a new trend is on the horizon. This signal from the ADX aligns with the RSI, where it hovers above the 50 level.

From a technical standpoint, the EMA 50 supports the bullish bias on the currency pair. If the price stays above it, the next target for buyers would be the upper band of the bullish channel, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.

Conversely, the EMA 50 acts as the critical pivot between the bull and bear markets. The uptrend should be considered invalidated if the U.S. Dollar pushes the Australian dollar below the mentioned moving average.

Analyzing the Potential Reversal in EURUSD Trends

The U.S. Dollar has returned from the 1.096 resistance level against the European currency. This ceiling is supported by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the pair failed to surpass it on March 8.

As of writing, the EURUSD pair trades at about 1.088, close to the 1.086 support and slightly below the lower band of the bullish channel. Interestingly, this price is below the Ichimoku cloud and the EMA 50, which could be interpreted as a potential trend reversal.

From a technical standpoint, the bullish trend is invalidated since the price dipped below the cloud. However, the bears are required to close below the 38.2% Fibonacci level to trigger the main selling pressure. Failure to push the price below this level will likely lead to the price returning above the EMA 50, indicating that the uptrend may continue.

Conclusion:

For the bearish trend to resume, the price must close below the 1.086 level. Going short in the current market situation is risky because the bearish breakout lacks valid confirmation.

Gold Price Stability Amid Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculation

On Friday, the price of gold remained stable, hovering around $2,160 per ounce. This marks its first decrease after three weeks of gains. The change comes amid uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. This uncertainty is due to unexpectedly high Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, coupled with a decrease in initial jobless claims.

These factors made investors rethink their previous expectations for more accessible monetary policies. Consequently, the likelihood of the Fed reducing rates in June has fallen to about 60% from the 74% estimated just last week. This shift has made gold, which does not yield interest, less attractive to investors.

However, gold's price is still near record highs, as it serves as a protective investment against inflation and increasing geopolitical tensions, especially after Russia decides to position its tactical nuclear weapons closer to NATO territories.

Oil Prices Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Indicators

Solid ECN – WTI crude futures increased to over $81 per barrel on Monday, building on the previous week's growth as ongoing geopolitical tensions fuel worries about oil supply. In the past week, Ukraine intensified its drone attacks on Russian oil facilities, causing a shutdown of approximately 7% of Russia's refining capabilities in the first quarter, as per a Reuters report.

Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced intentions to expand into the Gaza Strip's Rafah region, diminishing the likelihood of reaching a peace deal. Additionally, this week, investors are keenly observing the decisions on monetary policy by leading central banks for signs that might indicate when interest rate reductions will occur. Last week saw a near 4% rise in oil prices following an optimistic demand forecast by the International Energy Agency, which also anticipates a minor shortfall in supply for the year.

USDJPY at the Crossroads of Overbought Conditions

Solid ECN – The Japanese currency has again become bearish against the U.S. Dollar. As shown on the USDJPY 4-hour chart, the American currency has risen above the Ichimoku cloud and is trading at about 149.1 as of this writing.

Currently, the pair is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci support while the RSI indicator is about to enter the overbought area. Therefore, it is not recommended to go long on the U.S. currency in a saturated market; it is better to wait for the pair to form new higher lows and lower highs.

That said, with the Awesome Oscillator's red bars, there is a high chance for the market to drop to the ascending trendline in red. This level of support can provide a decent entry point to join the bull market.

Conversely, the bull market should be invalidated if the price falls below the 148.8 mark.

WTI Crude Oil Prices Soar Amid Global Supply and Demand Dynamics

Solid ECN – WTI crude oil prices remained above $82 per barrel on Tuesday, close to their peak since the start of November, boosted by concerns about supply. The reasons include Ukraine's recent drone attacks on three of Russia's oil refineries, which represent over 10% of Russia's oil refining capability. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Iraq has said it will cut back its oil exports to 3.3 million barrels per day in the upcoming months to make up for going over its OPEC+ limit since January.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia's oil exports dropped for the second month in a row, reaching 6.297 million barrels per day in January, down slightly from December. On the other side, demand appears strong, with China, a major oil buyer, showing solid growth in industrial output and retail sales. The overall global demand for oil is also expected to remain robust this year.

BTCUSD Hits April Low: What's Next for Bitcoin Prices?

Solid ECN – Bitcoin flipped below the Ichimoku cloud in last week's trading session. The decline continued this week, and today BTCUSD hit a new low for April, trading below the $64,400 mark. Interestingly, the RSI and the Awesome Oscillator also point to a bear market. In addition to RSI and Ao, the ADX climbs to 40, signifying that the downtrend is strengthening.

From a technical standpoint, the EMA 50 and the upper band of the bearish channel, marked in red, act as resistance levels. If Bitcoin's price remains below $67,000, the next target is likely the $60,000 mark.

Conversely, for the uptrend to resume, the price must cross above the EMA 50 and maintain its position above it.

Noteworthy

It's important to note that the primary market is bullish, and the current downward momentum is considered a consolidation phase. During this phase, major players collect profits by sweeping the floor from retail traders.