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Oil Technical Analysis: Ascending Triangle

In the world of Forex trading, the ascending triangle is a powerful tool used by traders to predict future price movements. This bullish continuation pattern is characterized by a rising lower trendline and a flat upper trendline that acts as resistance. The pattern indicates that buyers are more aggressive than sellers as the price continues to make higher lows.

Now, let's apply this knowledge to the current situation with oil trading. In the 1-hour chart, oil is forming an ascending triangle. This pattern is significant because it suggests that the bulls in the market are gaining strength and could potentially push the price higher. At present, oil is trading above the pivot line at $90 per barrel. The pivot line is a technical indicator used by traders to determine the overall trend of the market. If the price is above the pivot line, it's a bullish signal, indicating that it's a good time to buy.

https://i.ibb.co/yS4Zz2W/WTI-2023-09-25-10-55-44.png

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), another key technical indicator, is trading above the level of 50. The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. When the RSI is above 50, it indicates that the market is in a bullish phase, suggesting that the price is likely to go up.

Given these factors, it's likely that the bulls will break through the triangle and test the $91 barrier. This is based on the principle of the ascending triangle pattern, which predicts that the price will continue in the trend direction it was moving before the pattern appeared. However, as with all forms of trading, it's important to remember that while patterns and indicators can give us a good idea of what might happen, nothing is ever certain in the markets. Therefore, always trade responsibly and ensure you're managing your risk effectively.

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Litecoin’s Bearish Outlook

Litecoin is trading in a range area between $70 and $58. The RSI indicator is hovering below the level of 50 and currently LTCUSD is trading below the $64 pivot. The LTCUSD outlook is bearish and the pair might decline to lower support levels starting with $61.52 and followed by $58.

https://i.ibb.co/LCSMphm/LTCUSD-2023-09-25-13-52-06.png

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USDCAD Technical Analysis

The USDCAD currency pair has rebounded from the 1.34 support level, which also aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Currently trading above the pivot line, and with the RSI indicator nearing a shift above the 50 level, the bullish scenario appears more likely than a bearish one. If the pair maintains its position above the 1.34 mark, it has the potential to reach the previous high of around 1.37.

https://i.ibb.co/gd9Sc7q/USDCAD-2023-09-25-17-41-33.png

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD currency pair is currently trading beneath the pivot line, inching towards the 0.638 support level. Given that the RSI indicator is lingering below the 50 mark, the market sentiment leans towards bearish. This suggests that the downward trend is expected to persist, with the 0.638 support level as the immediate target, followed by the 0.636 area.

https://i.ibb.co/yq8RMYX/AUDUSD-2023-09-26-09-45-57-4000a.png

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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD has decisively breached the 1.059 support level, indicating a robust bearish market. With the RSI indicator nearing the oversold territory, we recommend a cautious approach. It would be prudent to wait for the EURUSD pair to rectify the recent sharp declines near the 1.067 weekly pivot. This level presents a substantial demand zone, providing an opportune moment for bears to initiate short trades with less risk than entering the market immediately.

https://i.ibb.co/vBqrF5h/EURUSD-2023-09-26-09-46-16-a15c6.png

For those already holding short positions in EURUSD, it is advisable to maintain their trades open. The currency pair is likely to aim for the lower band of the declining channel.

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USDJPY Technical Analysis

The bullish momentum in USDJPY appears to be unyielding. Since last week, the pair has been on an upward trajectory and is now nearing a key demand zone. The RSI indicator has been lingering in the overbought territory for several weeks, underscoring the strength of the uptrend. The bullish sentiment in the USDJPY market is robust, making it highly probable that the pair will reach the 151 - 152 demand zones.

https://i.ibb.co/FKZw6yv/USDJPY-2023-09-26-09-45-42-ad118.png

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USDCHF Technical Analysis

The USDCHF currency pair is currently challenging the resistance level at 0.917. The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone, which typically suggests a correction might be on the horizon. Given that the USDCHF pair is overbought, it would be prudent to wait for a price correction before making any moves. The 0.912 level, or the previously broken channel, could potentially offer a substantial supply for bullish traders. This scenario presents an opportunity to observe and strategize for optimal entry points.

https://i.ibb.co/hcx5cvW/USDCHF-2023-09-27-08-28-45-50b45.png

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The NZDUSD currency pair is currently trading beneath the pivotal 0.595 mark, with the RSI indicator lingering below the 50 level, indicating a bearish market strength. The pair is navigating within an ascending channel, which is typically viewed as a corrective phase following the pair's recent downturn.

https://i.ibb.co/Tm38kDV/NZDUSD-2023-09-27-09-34-23-bea15.png

The lower boundary of this declining channel plays a crucial role in resuming the bearish outlook. As NZDUSD is trading below the pivot point and with the price remaining under this level, there's a likelihood of a further decline towards the 0.591 support level. This scenario underscores the importance of monitoring these key levels and market indicators in your trading strategy.

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD currency pair recently tested the 0.638 resistance level, following a rebound from the 0.636 support level. However, bearish forces managed to push the closing price below the crucial support level of 0.636. Given that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was in the oversold territory, a market correction was anticipated.

https://i.ibb.co/xCL4kpP/AUDUSD-2023-09-28-10-57-32-e6257.png

As long as the price remains below the 0.638 resistance level, the market trend is expected to stay bearish. On the other hand, if bullish forces can push the closing price above 0.638, the recent low could be interpreted as a new lower low, setting the stage for bulls to aim for the 0.645 pivot point.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis

The BTCUSD is trading around $26,395 this morning after a failed attempt to break the $27,116 last week. The previous daily candle is a long wick shadow candle, showing the strength of the bears in the market. This scenario is stronger with the RSI indicator hovering below the level of 50.

https://i.ibb.co/x8z0rHs/BTCUSDT-2023-09-28-12-25-55-8e08c.png

With the price below the $27,000 barrier, it is likely for Bitcoin to decline and test the $25,000 support again.

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Crude Oil Update: Key Resistance Breached

Crude Oil has successfully breached the significant resistance level of $94, reaching as high as $95 in early trading sessions. Currently, it’s trading around $93, forming a long wick candlestick pattern. It’s important to note that the weekly pivot is also situated at $93. This resistance level is crucial, and with the price surpassing it, Crude Oil may be poised to reach the psychological level of $100.

https://i.ibb.co/R6N0m8G/USOIL-2023-09-28-13-18-27-24102.png

The RSI indicator is currently in the overbought zone, suggesting a need for close monitoring of today’s price action on the daily chart. If bearish forces manage to push the price down, forming an inverted hammer or a long wick shadow candlestick pattern, we could see some corrections to lower levels such as $90, followed by $85.

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis

In the recent analysis of AUDUSD, we observed a robust rebound from the 0.63 mark, with the currency pair now hovering around 0.648. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in the overbought territory, indicating a potential deceleration in the ongoing upward trend. The critical level to monitor for AUDUSD is the resistance at 0.651. There's a possibility that AUDUSD may reverse its course and enter a bearish phase from this point onwards.

https://i.ibb.co/gTzgdFt/AUDUSD-2023-09-29-12-28-49-81624.png

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Bitcoin Analysis

Yesterday, Bitcoin managed to break above the downward trendline and successfully closed above the $27,997 R1 resistance level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now approaching the overbought territory. Given this RSI indicator, it's possible that BTCUSD might experience a sideways range. With Bitcoin surpassing the R1 support level, there's a likelihood that the bulls could drive the BTCUSD price up to $29,031, and potentially even reach $30,579.

https://i.ibb.co/48KVD28/BTCUSDT-2023-10-02-11-36-37-792b7.png

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EURUSD Analysis: Persistent Decline

The EURUSD pair is on a steady decline, unable to break the midpoint of the downward channel. The RSI dipping below 50 signals a likely continuation of this bearish trend.

https://i.ibb.co/r0y8fPG/EURUSD-2023-10-02-13-38-47-ddd72.png

The 1.0409 support level is a key marker. If the pair holds above this, it could slow the bearish momentum. However, if it fails to maintain this level, the downtrend may continue to lower levels.

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US Oil Analysis: Bears Targeting the $87 Support

US oil prices are falling from a high of $95 and trading below the $90.36 pivot point due to various factors. The next support level is at $87.63, which could act as a buffer against further declines. The market conditions are fluid and vigilance is key.

https://i.ibb.co/nLG6YZ9/USOIL-2023-10-02-18-14-52-d7aec.png

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Bitcoin Bulls Hold the Fort: An Analysis of Current Market Trends

The bears put pressure on the bitcoin from $28,708 and currently bitcoin is testing the $27,349 pivot. The RSI indicator is hovering above the 50 level and with the BTCUSD holding above the broken trendline and pivot, bitcoin bulls are yet in control and we can expect the bitcoin price to rise and test the R1 resistance again.

https://i.ibb.co/khLNQcZ/BTCUSDT-2023-10-03-10-48-13-f9f31.png

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Turkish Lira Weakens Against Strong US Dollar

The Turkish lira is falling against the strong US dollar. The USDTRY is up 0.4% as Turkey's inflation was slightly lower than expected, which might influence the CBRT's approach. Despite recent changes, the USDTRY is still on an upward trend.

https://i.ibb.co/HrNGyhR/USDTRY-2023-10-03-12-27-36-b0f9d.png

Yearly inflation in Turkey: 61.53% (Expected: 61.6%, Previous: 58.94%)
Monthly inflation in Turkey: 4.75% (Expected: 4.8%, Previous: 9.09%)

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis

The decline of the AUDUSD currency pair has temporarily halted as the RSI indicator, previously in the oversold territory, is now hovering at the 37 level. The market maintains a bearish trend, and the support level at 0.634 presents an attractive price point for bears to intensify their selling pressure.

https://i.ibb.co/1TjQShV/AUDUSD-2023-10-04-12-12-21-419fa.png

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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD currency pair is currently navigating within a downward channel and is positioned below the pivot in the 4-hour time frame. A minor resistance level is observed at 1.049, and at present, the pair is maintaining a position above this level. The RSI indicator has surged above the 50 mark, suggesting the potential onset of a bullish wave. Given the prevailing market conditions and the dominant bearish trend, our recommendation is to wait for the EURUSD to hit either the pivot or the 1.066 resistance level before initiating sell orders.

https://i.ibb.co/TmRG90q/EURUSD-2023-10-05-11-23-55-e0860.png

Please note that this bearish outlook will be invalidated if the EURUSD bulls manage to push the currency pair out of the downward channel.

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GBPUSD Analysis

The GBPUSD is currently trading below the pivot point of 1.219. Interestingly, the RSI indicator is flipping above the critical level of 50, which might indicate an upcoming bullish wave. However, for this to materialize, it's crucial for the bulls to close above the pivot point, as this would pave the way towards the next resistance level at 1.228.

https://i.ibb.co/vX71pB8/GBPUSD-2023-10-05-15-03-55-801ad.png

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USDCAD Analysis: Technical View

The USDCAD is currently trading above a crucial broker resistance zone, spanning from 1.3655 to 1.3648. This zone serves as a strong support for the bullish trend. As long as the price remains above this level, we can expect the USDCAD bulls to push higher and challenge the next resistance zone, which lies between 1.3877 and 1.3976.

https://i.ibb.co/k8H2SDB/USDCAD-2023-10-06-10-50-21-c9591.png

Conversely, if the bears manage to push the price below 1.3655, and if the RSI indicator dips below the 50 level, it could signal a bearish turn. In this case, the USDCAD might aim for the 1.355 pivot point.

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Impact of Naira Devaluation on Trade and Prices

The drop in the value of Nigeria's currency, the Naira, has made things difficult for businesses that trade across borders, especially at the Seme-Krake border in Lagos. For instance, the cost of a 50kg bag of rice has climbed to N35,000, and a box of frozen chicken now costs N28,000. A Lagos trader, John Ebube, points out that as the Naira loses value, money problems get worse.


Fuel Smuggling and Market Shifts

Because the Naira is worth less, smuggling petrol has become a way to make money. Petrol prices soared after Nigeria stopped helping with petrol prices in May. Now, a liter of petrol costs more than N2,010. This issue has grown because people in Nigeria are trading their money for dollars in Niger.

There's also a cash shortage of CFA Francs caused by political troubles and some government officials keeping money to themselves. This has made the Naira more commonly used in markets near Nigerian states like Borno and Kano. A trader from Diffa, Aminu Abdulkadir, has seen this change.


Challenges for Traders

The Naira's falling value has also shaken up trade in West Africa. As the Naira's value has dropped to N2,010 for CFA1000, many traders are leaving the business because they're not making enough money. The CFA Franc is getting stronger against the Naira, which has gone from an exchange rate of 1100 CFA to N1,200, and now it's between N1600 to N1700. The high prices for things like rice and chicken mean less profit for traders, making their businesses hard to keep going.

Source: https://hubufx.com/impact-of-naira-devaluation-on-trade-and-prices/