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USDJPY: Bearish Trend May Resume

The USDJPY currency pair has recently rebounded upwards after finding strong support at 137.24, testing the key resistance level of 139.15. Despite this, the price has consolidated below this level, suggesting that the bearish correctional trend may resume in the near future. The pair’s next goal is to revisit the 137.24 support level, with a potential break below this level pushing the price towards 135.9 as the next correctional target.

The Stochastic oscillator currently displays a negative overlap, indicating that bearish trades are likely to continue today.

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GBPUSD: Bullish Bias Continues

The GBPUSD currency pair has successfully broken through the resistance line of the falling wedge pattern and is striving to remain above it. This supports the likelihood of the bullish trend continuing today, driven by positive momentum indicated by the stochastic oscillator. The pair is aiming to reach its targets, starting at 1.3200 and extending to 1.3295.

It is crucial for the pair to maintain its position above the 1.3075 level in order to sustain its upward trajectory. If this level is broken, it could trigger a correctional bearish wave on an intraday basis.

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USDCHF Downtrend Continues: Key Levels to Watch

The USDCHF currency pair saw a recent uptick that was stopped at the resistance level of 1.3232. After hitting this point, the pair experienced a sharp drop and broke past the support level of 1.32. It is expected that the downward trend will persist towards the previously tested support levels of 1.3129 and 1.3093.

Traders should pay attention to crucial resistance levels at 1.3205 and 1.32324, which may serve as a supply zone for bears to drive the market down once more. These levels present opportunities for traders to initiate short positions and capitalize on the continuing downtrend in the USDCHF currency pair.

What is a supply zone:

A supply zone in forex trading is an area on a price chart with significant selling power, resulting in a price decrease or a reversal of an uptrend. You can identify supply zones by looking at a level where the price has struggled to break through several times, indicating intense selling pressure. Forex supply zones are areas where banks and institutions are placing a large number of sell positions at a particular price zone. If a portion of these sell orders remain unfilled when the price moves lower, then they’re likely to be left there, just sitting untouched.

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USDJPY Key Levels to Watch

The USDJPY currency pair is trading around 138.35 trying to stabilize the price above the demand zone at 137.33. The green long wick shadow candle-stick signals a continuation to the mail bullish trend. Continuing to the current market situation, please note that the price reacted downward to the 23.6 level of the Fibonacci Retracement which act as a minor support to the pair. The inverted hammer candle stick supports the sellers will in keeping the downtrend active.

The 23.6 level acts as today's resistance, the bullish trend would probably resume if the market can close above 139.4 in the 4H time-frame. On the other hand 137.33 is the main support, and a breach in this level will signal the continuation of the negative movements which was initiated from 145.

The USDJPY currency pair is currently trading around 138.35, as it attempts to stabilize its price above the key demand zone at 137.33. Notably, the appearance of a green long-wick shadow candlestick signals a potential continuation of the main bullish trend. In light of the current market situation, it’s important to note that the price has reacted downward to the 23.6 level of the Fibonacci Retracement, which is acting as a minor support for the pair. Furthermore, the presence of an inverted hammer candlestick further supports the sellers’ efforts to keep the downtrend active.

In terms of resistance, today’s level is at the 23.6 mark. If the market can close above 139.4 in the 4H time-frame, it’s likely that the bullish trend will resume. On the other hand, 137.33 serves as the main support level, and a breach of this level could signal a continuation of the negative movements that were initiated from 145.

In conclusion, key levels to watch for USDJPY on July 18th, 2023 include a support level at 137.33 and a resistance level at 139.4.

What is an Inverted Hammer

An inverted hammer is a type of candlestick pattern that is usually found after a downtrend and is often taken to be a trend-reversal signal. The pattern is made up of a candle with a small lower body and a long upper wick, which is at least two times as large as the short lower body. The body of the candle should be at the low end of the trading range, and there should be little or no lower wick in the candle.

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USDCHF Analysis: Bearish Trend and Potential Price Correction

The USDCHF currency pair is currently trading sideways between the lower low at 0.8567 and the lower high at 0.8631. The trend direction is strongly bearish in favor of the Swiss franc, with the MACD signaling an enormous divergence. Since the price action does not show strength in rising, it is likely that we will see a sideways trend and a correction to upper levels. If the price remains stable above 0.8567, it may lead to a price correction at higher levels around the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8706.

On the other hand, if the minor support at 0.8567 breaks, the bearish bias will probably resume. The next supply area is located approximately 300 pips away, around 0.8293. In this scenario, it is possible that the downtrend may continue in the upcoming days.

What is MACD Divergence?

In forex trading, divergence refers to a situation where the price of a currency pair is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator, such as the MACD or RSI. This can signal an imbalance between price and the oscillator, which may indicate an impending directional change in price. There are two types of divergences: regular divergence and hidden divergence. Each type of divergence can contain either a bullish or bearish bias.

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EURJPY: Forming a Double Bottom

The EURJPY is exhibiting an upward trend and has rebounded from the support level at 155.13, which coincides with the Fibonacci 38.2 retracement level. This convergence lends further credibility to this support area. Notably, the instrument is forming a double bottom pattern at the edge of the rising trend line. If the price remains above 155.13, the initial target will be 156.34.

At present, the candlestick pattern is forming a long wick shadow, representing the third bullish signal for taking a long position on this currency pair.

Conversely, if the price falls below the 155.13 support level, the 156.34 high will be considered a new higher high and the decline may extend to lower Fibonacci retracement levels at 50 and subsequently 61.8.

What is Double Bottom Pattern?

A Double Bottom Pattern in forex is a chart pattern that signals a potential bullish reversal. It comprises of two distinct bottoms of similar width and height, forming near a similar horizontal price level, resembling the letter “W”. A measured strengthening in price will occur between the two low points showing some support at the price lows.

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GBPJPY: Wait for 179 Support Before Making a New Decision

The GBPJPY currency pair is trading in a narrow declining channel near the support at 179.5. A hammer candle stick indicates that the market is keen to push the price higher, but the bulls were unsuccessful in breaking the minor resistance at 180.6. HubuFX analysis team suggests waiting for the price to test the 179.5 support for a double bottom pattern. If the pair holds above this level, it is likely to target 182.12 followed by 184. Therefore, both sellers and buyers of the currency pair should be patient and carefully monitor the price action behavior near the support before making a new decision. The currency pair is likely to trade in the range between 179.5 and 182.1 today.

However, if the bears succeed in breaking the aforementioned support, the GBPJPY decline is likely to continue.

Fundamental Analysis

There are a few major economic releases scheduled for tomorrow July 21, 2023, which could influence the pair. These include:

GBP: GFK consumer confidence
GBP: Retail sales data
JPY: Core inflation rate
JPY: Inflation Rate

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Bulls Stabilize USDJPY Above Key Support Level

The USDJPY currency pair has recently retested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Despite this retest, the bulls have managed to stabilize the price above the minor support level of 139.4. This stabilization is a positive sign for traders who are bullish on the pair. If the price can hold above the aforementioned support level, it is likely to target the next support level at 140.9 in the following trading sessions. This would represent a continuation of the bullish trend and could provide further opportunities for traders to enter long positions.

The MACD indicator is currently trading above its signal line, which is typically considered a bullish sign. This suggests that the underlying asset may be experiencing upward momentum and could continue to rise in price.

On the other hand, if the minor support at 139.4 breaks, it could signal a resumption of the decline. In this scenario, the price could retest the next support level at 137.33. Traders who are bearish on the pair may look to enter short positions if this support level is broken.

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Gold is currently trading around the support level of $1,963 within an ascending channel. This could be a correction phase of the uptrend that began on June 29, 2023. If the market remains within the channel, it is likely that the upward movement will continue, targeting the previous high of $1,087.

On the other hand, if the bears succeed in pushing the price outside of the rising channel, the correction may continue to a lower support level starting at $1,945. At this time, we suggest monitoring the price action and waiting for a bullish candlestick to emerge before executing a buy order or exiting a sell order.

In terms of fundamental analysis, the gold market is currently supported by concerns about inflation and economic growth. Additionally, the US dollar is trading weaker, making gold more attractive to investors. However, there are also some headwinds facing the gold market from rising interest rates. The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates several times this year, which could put downward pressure on gold prices.

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EURJPY: How to Trade the Recent Price Action

The EURJPY currency pair has recently experienced a rise, holding steady near its last high, which is acting as a resistance level at 158. However, the price had a negative reaction to this resistance and started Monday with a decline. This could potentially be just a temporary correction before another surge in price. Despite the 158 resistance appearing fragile, a break could be imminent as long as the bulls are able to maintain control of the market above the rising trendline.

On the other hand, it is important to note that there is also support at 153.46, which correlates with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. In the unlikely event that this support level is broken in a downward direction, the decline may continue to lower levels of the Fibonacci retracement. As always, it is important to carefully monitor market trends and make informed decisions when trading.

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Gold: Ready to Break 1972 as Bullish Trend Resumes

After touching the bottom line of the rising channel around $1,957, gold has resumed its bullish trend. The appearance of a long wick candlestick signaled the end of the correction, and the market is now stabilizing above the $1,961 support level. It is likely that the market will continue to rise, targeting $1,972 followed by $1,980. The market trend remains bullish, and the uptrend channel is expected to continue during today’s session.

On the other hand, if the $1,961 support level breaks, the market correction may test the next major support around $1,945. This level has acted as strong and valid support during the recent decline.

In terms of fundamentals, there are no major economic releases scheduled for today. As a result, the market is likely to focus on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the potential for further sanctions against Russia. These factors could continue to support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets.

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EURUSD Technical and Fundamental Outlook

The EURUSD currency pair has been experiencing an upward trend since October 2022. Currently, it is trading above its 1.1060 support level. Additionally, technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI are in neutral territory, suggesting a bullish outlook.

This morning, the EURUSD is trading close to the strong support at 1.1060. This price level provides a decent supply zone for the pair, and the price may bounce from here. In the near term, there are several factors that could support the EURUSD. Firstly, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates, which could make the euro more attractive to investors. Secondly, the US economy is showing signs of slowing down, which could weigh on the dollar.

As a result, the EURUSD is expected to continue its upward trend in the near term. The pair could test the 1.1200 level in the coming weeks. However, if the ECB does not raise interest rates as expected or if the US economy shows signs of improvement, the EURUSD could pull back.

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CHF Likely to Gain More Strength in Coming Weeks

The Swiss Franc has been gaining strength against the US dollar since November 2022. The pair is now trading at levels last seen in 2011, due to the franc's status as a safe haven currency and comments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) about potential FX intervention.

The USDCHF currency pair bounced from the support at 0.8706, but the 4-hour chart shows a doji and long-wicked candle, suggesting that the franc is likely to gain more strength. The moving averages and technical indicators also suggest sell signals.

There are not many high-impact risk events on the calendar this week, but we do have US building permits later today, followed by CB Consumer Confidence and the FOMC meeting next week. The key to the FOMC meeting will be the comments by Fed Chair Powell, as well as any updates on the Fed's projections for the rest of the year.

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Gold Analysis: Price Line Resistance Acts as Support

Gold, the yellow metal, began the day with an increase and is currently trading at $1,971, clinging to the price line resistance that previously acted as support. The market is likely to move back to the channel since it was unable to break the 38.2 Fibonacci level. As long as the Fibo level holds, the bullish outlook remains valid. The price is likely to target $1,987 again, and the previous breakdown of the rising channel can be considered a false breakdown.

The 4-hour timeframe is the best for trading XAUUSD. This timeframe provides enough detail to identify trends and reversals while also capturing the overall market sentiment. In technical analysis, a price channel is a chart pattern that occurs when the price of an asset moves between two parallel trendlines. The upper trendline connects the swing highs in price, while the lower trendline connects the swing lows. The channel can slant upward, downward, or sideways on the chart.

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NZDUSD Poised for Breakout Above Resistance

The NZDUSD currency pair is poised for a breakout, and stabilizing the price above the 0.6246 resistance today. If the bulls are successful in achieving this important milestone, the New Zealand Dollar will be able to set its sights on new targets at higher levels of the Fibonacci retracement, starting with the 50 level and followed by the 61.8 level.

In this scenario, the risk of stop for long positions should be set at 0.6184 or the previous low around 0.6150. Additionally, the simple moving average indicator is currently acting as support around the 0.619 level. However, if this level is breached, the decline could continue to the 0.6056 level.

Overall, this is a critical moment for the NZDUSD currency pair, with the potential for significant gains if the bulls are able to maintain their momentum and push the price above the key resistance level.

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USDCAD: Is the Bear Market Over?

The USDCAD currency pair is currently testing the resistance level of 1.3235, which is also near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The RSI indicator has not yet reached the overbought level of 80 in the 4-hour time frame, indicating that there is still room for the bulls to push the price higher.

The candle sticks formed near the resistance level do not show any significant selling pressure from the bears. This suggests that the upward bias is likely to continue, with the 25 SMA acting as support for the bulls.

If the bulls are successful in breaking through the resistance level, their target will be the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. However, traders should also watch the price action closely for doji, long-wicked candles, or bearish engulfing candles, which could signal a reversal in the trend.

In general, the trend is bearish, and the current uptick movement can be considered a correction. However, if the bulls are able to break through the resistance level, the trend could shift to bullish.

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EURUSD: Key Levels to Watch in Upcoming Week

The Euro weakened against the US Dollar last week, but the overall uptrend for EURUSD remains. This is because the currency pair bounced off a rising support line from June, keeping the upward bias. If it continues to rise, the next resistance level is at 1.1231, followed by a zone between 1.1453 and 1.1495. If it falls, the next support levels are at 1.0834 and 1.0635.

On the 4-hour chart, positive RSI divergence shows that downside momentum is fading, which could mean a turn higher. If it rises, the next resistance levels are at 1.1182 and 1.12758. If it falls, the next support levels are at 1.0954 and a zone between 1.0833 and 1.0859.

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EURUSD Strategy: A Closer Look at the 4-Hour Chart

The EURUSD currency pair is trading bullish above the trend line from May 31. However, it is important to note that the pair is below the pivot level at 1.104. There are several high-impact economic news releases scheduled for today in the euro zone, which could impact the pair's direction in the short term. Therefore, it is not recommended to trade this currency pair until the new data is released.

On a technical standpoint, the euro is bullish against the dollar as long as the pair is traded above the resistance line at 1.0966. Zooming in to the 4-hour chart, we see a bullish engulfing candle stick, which signals that the rising trend may continue. However, the pair could break the trend line if the economic data released today is disappointing for the euro area.

Traders should keep an eye on today's economic data and watch the market behavior closely before going long or short on the EURUSD currency pair.

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Best Prices to Enter Gold Market with Minimum Risk

Gold bounced from the July's high of $1,987 and is currently testing the trendline that acts as support for the XAUUSD. The RSI indicator is currently below the 50 line and has room to reach the 30 level. Therefore, the downward momentum of the yellow metal may continue in the current trading session, and the bears may be able to challenge the trendline.

The S1 support offers supply for buyers in the asset, as evidenced by the long wick shadow and the bullish engulfing pattern, which signals that bulls are leading the price. If the bullish scenario is correct, the bulls' first target would be the first resistance around $1,980.

However, traders should note that the best prices to enter the market with the minimum risk are at the support level of $1,940. If this level breaks, the gold price could dump to the next support around $1,921.

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Gold Price Update: Double Bottom Pattern in Play

Following up on yesterday’s analysis, the XAUUSD pair has tested the support level of $1,940 and is currently challenging the broken trendline on the 4-hour chart, which now acts as resistance. Despite the bears’ efforts, they were unable to close below the low of July 27th, and the price bounced back from that zone. This could potentially lead to the formation of a double bottom pattern.

If the price breaks above $1,952, it would provide an opportunity for the bulls to push the price above the trendline and target the pivot point at $1,961.

On the other hand, S1 remains a key factor in maintaining a bullish bias. If it breaks, the path towards S2 at $1,921 will be cleared. We recommend keeping an eye on minor resistance levels and monitoring market behavior around these support and resistance areas.

A double bottom pattern in forex is a bullish reversal pattern that comprises of two distinct bottoms of similar width and height, below a resistance level (the neckline), giving it the shape of a "W"1. The first bottom forms immediately after a strong downtrend. The price then retraces to the neckline and then falls back to the downside.

21 (edited by (HubuFX) 2023-08-02 14:19:17)

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EURUSD Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle and Awesome Oscillator

Currently, the EURUSD currency pair is trading at around 1.097. Interestingly, it’s in a symmetrical triangle pattern, which typically indicates that the current trend will continue. As a result, the pair is following the rising trend line and attempting to break down. However, it’s important to note that the trend line has been tested four times, so it presents a strong barrier for bearish traders. In addition, the bars on the Awesome Oscillator indicator have turned green and are approaching the signal area.

Furthermore, the low on July 27th supports a bullish outlook for the EURUSD price. If this level holds, the target will be 1.104, followed by 1.113. For those who want to trade long, it’s recommended to set your risk at least 29 pips below the S1 support, as indicated by the ATR indicator.

On the other hand, if bearish traders manage to close below 1.0945 on the 4-hour chart, the decline that began on July 18th could extend to 1.092 and then to 1.083.

The Average True Range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator that measures market volatility. The ATR is typically derived from the 14-day simple moving average of a series of true range indicators. It shows investors the average range prices swing for an investment over a specified period. The ATR can be used to develop a complete trading system or be used for entry or exit signals as part of a strategy.

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GBPUSD Tests 1.26 Support, Bulls Ready for Reversal

The GBPUSD currency pair is currently trading below the broken trendline, around 1.2696. At the moment, the bears are testing the support area, which extends from 1.2681 to 1.26. This support zone is clearly shown in green on the GBPUSD daily time frame. Interestingly, this support was tested once on June 29, and the bullish trend extended its legs to as high as 1.3141 until July 13.

If we take a closer look by zooming into the 4-hour time frame, we can see a long-wick candlestick. This signals a possibility of a trend reversal or an exhaustion in the bearish bias from July 13. Please note, the green area acts as the supply zone all the way down to S1 support at 1.261. Consequently, there is a high chance for the bulls to regain control if the latter level holds.

On the other hand, for the bears to keep their bearish bias valid, they have to close below the S1 barrier. HubuFX suggests monitoring the price action in the green zone closely before executing a new order or exiting a current short trade.

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USDCAD Resistance at 1.3386, Bounce to 1.332 Possible

On August 2, the USDCAD pair broke out of its channel and surged higher after retesting it. It is currently trading near the resistance at July’s higher highs of 1.3386, which also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The RSI indicator is hovering in the overbought area, signaling potential exhaustion in the trend or a possible trend reversal with a double top pattern.

Hubufx recommends closely monitoring price action and candlestick patterns around the 1.3388 resistance level. If the resistance holds, the market could bounce to 1.332, followed by 1.329.

If the USDCAD pair closes above 1.3386, it would indicate a continuation of the upward trend. In this scenario, buyers should exercise patience and wait for the market to retest this level before entering a long position. By waiting for a retest, professional traders can minimize their risk and increase the potential outcome of their trade.

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AUDUSD: Is the Uptrend Over?

The AUDUSD currency pair is currently trading at around 0.6549. Recently, the pair bounced off the resistance level at 0.6589 and formed a doji candlestick pattern on the 4-hour time frame. This pattern suggests a bearish bias in the market. It is important to note that the bearish trend remains valid as long as the price stays below the resistance level of 0.65959. If this scenario plays out, the downward momentum could continue, with the price potentially targeting May's lower lows in the range of 0.6492 to 0.6445.

On the other hand, if the price breaks above the resistance level of 0.6595, we could see a continuation of the correction. In this case, the price of the asset may rise to test the next resistance level at 0.6638.

In summary, traders should keep an eye on key levels of support and resistance when making their trading decisions for the AUDUSD currency pair. A break above or below these levels could signal a potential change in market direction.
According to the latest news, the AUDUSD pair is preparing to extend losses below the immediate support of 0.6595 as the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reports that employment additions were higher than expectations. The US labor market witnessed an addition of fresh 324K private payrolls, significantly higher than the estimates of 189K but lower than the former release of 497K. The AUDUSD broke below the key support area at 0.6600 and tumbled to 0.6527, reaching the lowest level since June 1. The decline added negative pressure to the Aussie, which still persists. The pair is currently looking for the next support.

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EURUSD: Downtrend Continues, But Bulls Have a Chance at R2

The EURUSD pair is trading in a downtrend and has broken below the 55 Moving Average and the pivot line at 1.099. This suggests that the decline is likely to continue, with the next target being S1 at 1.093 and S2 at 1.086. These levels coincide with the lower line of the channel.

Overall, the outlook for EURUSD is bearish, but there are some bullish factors that could support the price. The 1.035 and 1.1049 levels provide support, and if the price closes above this zone, the bulls could target R2 at 1.112. Traders should be cautious and wait for a clear breakout before taking a position.

Fundamental factors for EURUSD:

ECB President Lagarde to speak at Jackson Hole symposium. ECB President Christine Lagarde will be speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium today. Her speech is closely watched by markets for any clues about the future of monetary policy in the eurozone.

German industrial production data. German industrial production data for July is due to be released today. Economists are expecting a decline of 0.5% from the previous month. A weak reading could weigh on the euro.

US retail sales data. US retail sales data for July is due to be released tomorrow. Economists are expecting a strong increase of 0.8% from the previous month. A strong reading could boost the dollar.