GBPUSD Recovery Uncertain as UK Factory Activities Decline

The GBPUSD is trying to recover from 1.2600, but its recovery is uncertain as UK factory activities keep declining. Despite this, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise interest rates for the 15th time in a row this month. This has put pressure on UK firms, who have shifted their focus to stabilizing margins and reducing costs by cutting inventories and their workforce.

The GBPUSD pair is trying to make a significant comeback after a severe sell-off, which was caused by growing recession concerns. However, the recovery effort seems fragile as UK factory activities are being affected by the BoE’s higher interest rates.

In today's trading session, the GBPUSD currency pair is making a concerted effort to correct the losses it incurred on Friday. Currently, the GBPUSD is trading near a key resistance level and the pivot zone at 1.263. Given the prevailing market conditions, the outlook for this currency pair is a downtrend. Consequently, for the bears to maintain this bearish scenario, it's crucial that they keep the pair below the 1.263 pivot point.

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to close above the 1.265 resistance level, it could potentially invalidate the current bearish scenario. In such a situation, we could see the GBPUSD surge towards the 1.27 resistance level, and possibly even extend towards 1.28.

Gold Trading Forecast: Key Levels to Watch in the Short Term

The price of gold has been falling for two days because people are investing more in the US Dollar. This is happening because there are concerns about a global recession. People see the US Dollar as a safe option, especially as some countries are struggling with high interest rates and the possibility of deflation in China.

However, the situation for gold may not be bad. The US Unemployment Rate has gone up to 3.8% and wages are not growing as fast. People hope that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates. A member of the Federal Reserve, Christopher Waller, agrees with this idea. He says that recent economic information gives the Federal Reserve more time to decide if they need to raise interest rates again.

In a recent development, gold closed under the pivotal point of $1,930. This event was triggered when the bulls were unable to breach the trendline on XAUUSD, which now serves as a strong resistance. The presence of a long wick shadow and the inverted hammer pattern are clear indicators of mounting sell pressure on gold. From a technical analysis perspective, it is likely that the price of gold could retreat to $1,910, and potentially even to $1,900.

However, all is not lost for gold. The high gold price recorded on September 1 is currently acting as a resistance level. To negate the bearish outlook, the bulls need to overcome the declining trendline and ensure a close above $1,950. Achieving this would signal a momentum shift and could pave the way for further gains in gold.

EURUSD Analysis: Markets Surprised by Q2 GDP Fails

The Eurozone’s Q2 2023 GDP was revised, surprising markets that had expected 0.6% growth. Instead, the GDP saw a small increase of 0.1%, falling short of the projected 0.3%. This was due to slow domestic consumption and decreasing exports. Despite this, the EURUSD is gaining, even though expectations for a rate hike from the ECB next week are dropping.

The EURUSD currency pair is currently trading within a declining channel and is closing below the 1.072 resistance level. This suggests that the decline is likely to continue, with the next target being the 1.065 supply zone.

The Calm Before the Storm: Anticipating the ECB Meeting

The European single currency is currently stable, maintaining a level above 1.07. This stability is due to the low volatility in the market today, as investors are hesitant to make significant moves before the European Central Bank's (ECB) meeting on Thursday.

On Friday, the currency's performance was as expected. Despite a temporary dip below 1.07, it managed to avoid major losses and showed signs of steadiness. There were no additional losses in the international stock markets, which means there's no current trigger that could lead to further losses for the European currency.

This week is crucial as we anticipate one of the most contentious ECB meetings in recent months on Thursday. Opinions are divided on whether ECB President Lagarde will announce a 25 basis point increase in key interest rates.

Today's agenda is quite light, and tomorrow's doesn't hold much of significance either. The focus now shifts to Wednesday, when the U.S. Consumer Inflation rate will be announced, and of course to Thursday's ECB meeting.

In anticipation of these significant events, it's likely that we'll see a repeat of Friday's market behavior, with limited fluctuations. The exchange rate is expected to hover around the 1.07 level without much deviation.

Dollar Gets Stronger Amid Changes in World Economy

The US dollar is doing better after it fell due to comments from Japan and China. Also, Beijing has made rules that need approval for buying more than $50 million. These different money policies around the world keep helping the dollar. It's doing better against all the G10 currencies and is mostly the same as yesterday. Most currencies from developing countries are lower, with those from Central Europe falling the most. The Chinese yuan is steady.

Most stock markets are down, but those in Japan, Taiwan, and Australia went up today. Europe's Stoxx 600 is a bit lower and US index futures have dropped by about 0.25%.

Japan's 10-year yield has gone up a bit to 0.70%. European yields are a bit lower by up to two points. Even with a rise in average weekly earnings in the UK, the 10-year Gilt yield has dropped almost five points to 4.42%. The US 10-year yield has dropped about 1.5 points to almost 4.27%. Today, the US plans to sell $35 billion of the 10-year note.

Gold is trading between $1918.6 and $1924.5 today, with its 200-day average around $1920. October WTI is steady near yesterday's high of $88.15 before today's OPEC and EIA monthly market reports. The IEA's report will be out tomorrow.

Navigating the Gold Market: An In-depth Look at Recent Trends

The price of gold is continuing to drop, moving closer to the $1,900 mark. This is happening because the value of the US Dollar is starting to rise again. This increase is due to a careful approach in the market and a rise in US Treasury bond yields. Everyone is now waiting for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. This information will guide the US Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates.

On Wednesday, the market is being cautious because of a drop in Apple and Oracle shares. People are thinking about what the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan might do next. They're also considering how the increase in oil prices could affect the world's economy and central banks. Oil prices are near their highest in ten months because OPEC+ has cut oil production.

The US Dollar is in demand because it's seen as a safe option when the market is uncertain. This is causing the price of gold to fall. US Treasury bond yields are going up again because people think that high US CPI data could lead to another increase in interest rates in November or December. There's a 93% chance that the Fed will not change interest rates in September. So, the price of gold could drop below $1,900.

The US CPI is expected to have increased by 3.6% in August, compared to 3.2% in July. The annual Core CPI inflation is likely to be 4.3%, down from 4.7% in July. On a monthly basis, the US CPI is expected to have increased by 0.6% in August, while the core figure is likely to remain at 0.2%.

On Tuesday, the price of gold fell. This happened because people expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to change its policy after seeing its inflation forecasts. This expectation made gold, which doesn’t earn interest, less attractive. The Euro became more popular because of the ECB report, which made the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate go up. This decrease in the value of the US Dollar helped stop the price of gold from falling too much, keeping it around $1,907.

As we approach the release of US inflation data, the price of gold seems more likely to decrease. This is because it broke out of its previous range on Tuesday. Previously, the price of gold was fluctuating between the 21-day and 50-day moving averages (DMA), which were at $1,917 and $1,932 respectively. However, it ended the day below the 21-day DMA, indicating a potential downward trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the speed and change of price movements, is currently below the midpoint and heading downward. This suggests that the price could continue to fall. The next important level for the price of gold is $1,900. If it falls below this level, we could see a rapid drop towards $1,885.

On the other hand, if the price starts to rise, it will first encounter resistance at the 21-day DMA of $1,917. If it can break through this level, it will then face the 200-day DMA at $1,921. If it can surpass this level, it could potentially rise to the 50-day DMA at $1,932.

EURUSD Bearish Outlook and the Impact of Euro Economy News

The EURUSD currency pair has recently tested the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 1.078 resistance zone, but is currently trading below this level. As long as this level remains steady, the outlook for the currency pair will be bearish, with a potential target of 1.065.

However, if the bulls manage to close above the 1.078 resistance, it could halt the current downtrend momentum. In this scenario, the upper band of the bearish channel would become the next resistance to watch.

It's worth noting that recent news about the Euro economy could impact this analysis. For instance, the European Central Bank is considering raising its key interest rate, and there are concerns about climate risks impacting Europe's economy. These factors could influence the EURUSD currency pair's movements in the near future. Stay updated with the latest news for more accurate forex predictions.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD currency pair is currently trending downwards, with the RSI indicator moving away from the oversold zone of 30. The pivot and resistance point is around the 1.245 zone, which is a key area for bearish traders to sell the currency pair. Therefore, it's important to monitor this pivot area and look for price action or candlestick patterns before making a trade decision. This information could be beneficial for those interested in forex trading, particularly with the GBPUSD pair.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD currency pair is currently hovering around a crucial pivot point, situated at 1.069. This pivot area is of significant interest to traders as it often acts as a reliable supply zone for bearish market participants. As such, it's not surprising to see the market trading in a relatively narrow range around this level.

However, the market's direction is not solely determined by technical factors. Fundamental events, such as policy announcements from influential institutions like the Federal Reserve, can cause significant shifts in market sentiment and price action. In this case, the market is eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy announcements scheduled for this Wednesday.

Given the potential impact of these announcements, many traders are choosing to adopt a cautious approach, refraining from placing substantial bets until they have a clearer picture of the Fed's stance. Consequently, we can expect the EURUSD pair to continue trading within its current range until the market receives further updates from the Federal Reserve. This careful, anticipatory behavior underscores the importance of balancing technical analysis with an understanding of key economic events in successful forex trading.

Gold Technical Analysis:

The XAUUSD pair, which represents the trading relationship between gold and the US dollar, is currently positioned below a descending channel. This indicates that the market sentiment is leaning towards the bearish side as long as the price of gold remains beneath the trendline. Investors and traders are closely monitoring the $1940 price level, which has proven to be a significant barrier for the bulls. If the bullish market participants are unable to push the price above this level, it could signal a lack of buying pressure in the market. This could potentially lead to a shift in market sentiment, causing the price of gold to retreat.

In such a scenario, the next key level to watch would be the $1,894 support level. This price point could serve as a safety net for the gold price, providing a platform from which it could potentially bounce back. However, if the price breaks below this level, it could trigger further selling pressure, leading to a deeper correction in the gold price.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

Thursday sees the AUDUSD pair continue its downward trend for the second day in a row, moving away from a nearly three-week high just above the 0.6500 mark. The pair has now hit a low of around 0.6400, a level not seen in over a week. This drop is largely due to the strong performance of the US Dollar (USD).

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the USD against other major currencies, is nearing a six-month high from last week. This is thanks to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) positive outlook. As expected, the Fed kept interest rates at a 22-year high of between 5.25%-5.5% after a two-day policy meeting. The Fed also hinted at another possible rate hike in 2023 due to ongoing inflation concerns.

According to the 'dot-plot', rates are expected to peak between 5.5%-5.75% by the end of this year, with the benchmark rate predicted to be 5.1% next year. This suggests only two rate cuts in 2024, compared to the four previously projected. This positive outlook has led to increased selling in the US fixed-income market, pushing the yield on the two-year government bond to its highest level since July 2006. The 10-year US Treasury yield has also hit a 16-year high, further boosting the USD.

Higher rates in the US have reignited worries about economic challenges due to rising borrowing costs, reducing the appeal of riskier assets. This is reflected in the weaker performance of equity markets, which is benefiting the safe-haven USD. Additionally, China's cautious approach to introducing more stimulus measures and speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may have ended its rate-hiking cycle are driving investors away from the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD).

Investors are now awaiting the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales data from the US. These releases, along with the performance of US bond yields and overall risk sentiment, will likely influence the USD and the AUDUSD pair. However, given the current situation, it seems more likely that the AUD/USD pair will continue to fall."