Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 31, 2022

Last Friday, the euro consolidated under the target resistance level of 1.1170. We expected that this consolidation would precede a further decline towards 1.1050. And in order for the emerging price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator not to take place, otherwise there will be a price reversal upwards, a decrease, at least a small one, already by today.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator rose high enough to reverse again. This signal line may still enter the consolidation range, marked with a gray area, but we expect a quick downward reversal from it.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 2, 2022

After yesterday's Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, which refrained from tightening rhetoric and with not very favorable statistics (retail sales in Australia decreased by 4.4% in December), but against the backdrop of a fall in the US dollar by 0.40%, the Australian dollar rose by 62 points, than formed a convergence with the Marlin Oscillator and approached the target level of 0.7171. When the price reaches this level, the Marlin Oscillator will reach the zero line - the border with the growth territory. This line is an independent support/resistance level. The synchronous achievement of levels by the price and the oscillator can become a reversal factor. Only the transition of the price above the MACD line, above the level of 0.7272, will become a condition for the medium-term price growth.

On the H4 chart, the price has consolidated above the indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is almost in the overbought zone, which creates a very early and very weak sign of a possible reversal from resistance 0.7171. We are waiting for the development of events.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 4, 2022

The outcome of yesterday's European Central Bank meeting, at which it was said that the central bank was not going to delay the rate hike for a long time, was a picture of investors leaving US values: the S&P 500 stock index collapsed by 2.44%, the yield on 5-year government bonds increased from 1, 60% to 1.67%, gold fell by 1.05% at the moment, but was successfully bought back, the dollar index fell by 0.68%. Against this background, the growth of the USD/JPY pair looks correlationally weak, except perhaps as a result of the growth of EUR/JPY cross rates by 1.69% and GBP/JPY by 0.68%.

Today, if the markets grow on optimistic US employment data (the forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change is 110-150,000), the dollar may continue its inertial growth towards the resistance of the MACD line (115.40), but there is a high probability of weaker data, up to negative, as it was on Wednesday for ADP Non-Farm, where the index showed -301,000 against the expectation of 185,000, and then we expect the USD/JPY pair to fall and take a course for further decline to 113.32 - to the monthly price channel line .

On the H4 chart, the price is still under the red balance indicator line, that is, yesterday's growth was clearly within the correction. The Marlin Oscillator is staying in the negative area. Overcoming the price of the MACD line (114.38) will return the price to the downward direction. We are waiting for the release of US data.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 8, 2022

As of this morning, the growth situation looks unambiguous for the Australian dollar. The price turned up from the target level of 0.7065 supported by a strong price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator on the daily scale chart. The first growth target is 0.7190, the second target is 0.7227, the third target is 0.7291 – the low of July 2021. A price delay is likely in the 0.7190-0.7227 range, since the MACD line is located in it.

On the four-hour chart, the price is above both indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is in the upward trend zone. It is interesting to note here that the targets at 0.7190 and 0.7291 coincide with the 110.0% and 161.8% Fibonacci levels. The 0.7291 target will probably be fulfilled. It is likely to be corrected.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 10, 2022

Today, the US will release data on inflation for January. Monthly CPI growth is projected to increase by 0.5%, the annual rate is expected at 7.3% against 7.0% y/y a month earlier. Core CPI is expected to rise to 5.9% y/y against 5.5% y/y in December. The first sign that the big players were tired of buying the euro against the data appeared last Friday and this Monday - the euro did not settle in the 1.1450/96 range with the release of strong US employment data. Now, if inflationary indicators turn out to be no worse than forecasted, we can expect the euro to fall. The target remains the same – 1.1300 – the August 2018 low. Below this level is the MACD indicator line, which is an independent support.

Also in favor of the fall is the increasing convergence of the price with the Marlin Oscillator. In general, the convergence is not strong, therefore, if the signal line of the oscillator does not go into negative territory during the price decline, the price and the oscillator may turn into a medium-term increase, as shown on the daily chart by a dashed line.

The downward trend is intensifying on the H4 chart. The price has lost momentum, has not consolidated in the range of 1.1450/96, the Marlin Oscillator is developing a decline in the downward trend zone. But the price still has support, up to the level of 1.1300 – the MACD line on H4 in the area of 1.1340. In the end, it may turn out that the bulls' affairs are not so bad. And if the euro may fall by today or tomorrow, then next week investors may again show interest in risk.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 14, 2022

The Australian dollar fell by 30 points on Friday. As a result, we got the following technical picture: the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator made a false exit above the zero line (this moment is marked with a tick), thus forming the upper limit of its own descending channel. This channel has a middle line, which corresponds to the target level of 0.7065. We believe that the price will hesitate a bit at this level, but then it will continue to decline towards the target of 0.6950, which (in visual estimation) will correspond to the lower border of the oscillator's descending channel.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator also made a false exit above the zero line (tick), and the price is now attacking the support of the MACD line (0.7115). Now the aussie's closest target is the level of 0.7065.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 16, 2022

Yesterday, the euro rose by 53 points as a correction from the support of the MACD line. At the moment, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is turning down from the zero line, which creates a sign of the completion of this correction, followed by a repeated attack on the MACD line. The 1.1300 target level is being modified to the 1.1280 level – Monday's low. Consolidation below the level opens the way for further decline to the target level of 1.1060. The exit of the price above the December 31 high at 1.1387, as above the upper limit of the consolidation of December 2021, may extend the euro's growth to the level of 1.1496, and overcoming it opens the way to the target range of 1.1700/22.

The price is turning down from the MACD line on the four-hour chart. At the same time, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is also turning down from the zero neutral line. Here we see a simultaneous (expected) Marlin reversal from the zero line on both scales, which strengthens the signal. The main scenario remains down.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 18, 2022

The Australian dollar failed to reach the target level of 0.7227 yesterday - external markets did not allow it to reach the level by only nine points; S&P 500 lost 2.12% yesterday, the US dollar index showed zero change, copper lost 0.49% of its value. But on a daily scale, the price managed to stay above the MACD indicator line until this morning, the Marlin Oscillator is in the positive area, so the aussie's growth potential is still not exhausted. Another thing is whether investors will want to once again outperform the market when a double Federal Reserve rate hike in March is in the air. But we can also talk about a fall to the target level of 0.7065 only when the price settles under the MACD line, which can happen no earlier than Monday.

AUD/USD maintains its full upward trend on the 4-hour chart – the price is above both indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is in the positive area. A downward signal will be the price moving under the MACD line below 0.7157.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 22, 2022

Yesterday, the Australian dollar once again tried to reach the target level of 0.7227, the high of the day was 0.7224, and the closing of the daily candle, like the last three days, was under the indicator balance line. This may mean that the bulls potentially do not have the strength to break through the resistance of 0.7227. The price decline under the MACD line, breaking Friday's low at 0.7168, opens the target at 0.7065 (the high of June 2020). The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is still in the positive area, this circumstance makes it difficult for the bulls to consolidate. The Australian dollar also supports the rise in commodity prices. Under the general offensive of the US dollar, the AUD/USD will also fall, only its fall will be slower than the European currencies. Target at 0.7065.

On the H4 chart, Marlin is already ready to move into the area of negative values, formally it is already on it. The price should overcome the MACD line (0.7175). The MACD lines coincide on the daily and H4 scales, respectively, overcoming them by the price will create a solid basis for further downward movement.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 24, 2022

After yesterday's attempt to go above the balance indicator line of the daily timeframe, the price moved down with even greater determination, closed the day with a black candle, and this morning it crosses the area under the MACD indicator line and the target level of 1.1280. The euro is now set on a path to a target level of 1.1060, the approximate low of February 1994.

The price firmly settled below the balance line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator rushed down with force after consolidating at the zero line. The situation is going down.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 28, 2022

This morning the major currencies opened with a falling gap. For the euro, this gap amounted to 145 points, in the Asian session the gap was closed by half. If the planned negotiations between Russia and Ukraine still begin in the near future, then the euro will be able to completely close the morning window, returning to the level of 1.1280, but then we still expect further weakening of the single currency amid all the uncertainty and fears associated both directly with Ukraine and and with economic implications for the global economy. The Federal Reserve's double rate hike on March 16th puzzles market participants again.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned down from the upper border of its own descending channel. At the same time, price convergence with the oscillator also takes place. Closing a gap followed by a downward price reversal fits well with these charting tools. Ultimately, we are waiting for the price at the target level 1.1060, and consolidating the price below it will open the target 1.0910.

On the four-hour chart, Marlin's signal line turned down from the zero line. The situation is completely downward, and the whole question is whether the gap will close or not. It is quite possible that the gap will be closed much later, after the price declines to the level of 1.0910. This can happen if the Fed refuses to raise the rate at the March meeting due to fears of a subsidence of the economy in connection with the escalation of geopolitical tensions.

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