Forecast for EUR/USD on June 11, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced its forecasts for the economy: GDP at 6.5% for 2020, and 5.0% for 2021, inflation forecast for this year was 0.8%, and 1.6% for the future. The regulator expects an unemployment rate of 9.3% this year and 6.5% in the year 2021. The dollar index lost 0.32%, while the euro grew by 33 points. The only forecast of the Fed which raises a clear doubt, is the forecast for inflation. The release of huge money supply into the open market in the framework of combating the epidemic and supporting the unemployed population cannot but cause much stronger inflation. Very soon, the Fed will be forced to raise rates even contrary to an earlier promise not to do so before the end of the year. However, for the remaining six months, you can still manipulate statistics so that this is not very obvious, and shift the focus from developing inflation to employment problems. As a result, the euro is unlikely to continue to strengthen on yesterday's data from the Fed, investors understand the unreliability of these forecasts.

The euro is staying in the range of target levels 1.1322-1.1416. According to the Marlin oscillator, a small divergence forms on the daily chart, but this can become a reversal signal.

Divergence is more pronounced on the four-hour chart. Consolidating the price under 1.1322, which will also correspond to the price falling below the MACD line (it is going up), opens the underlying consecutive goals: 1.1265, 1.1200, 1.1125.

Consolidating the price over 1.1416 may extend the current branch to 1.1495.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 15, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro fell by 42 points last Friday. It did not reach the target level of 1.1200 by 13 points, we are waiting for its development in the near future and only after that a local correction in the range of 1.1200/65. A small divergence on the Marlin oscillator continues to remain in force. Overcoming the price level of 1.2000 will allow the price to fall even deeper, to the price channel line in the region of 1.1120.

The price is developing under the indicator lines of balance and MACD on the four-hour chart, the price is kept below the level of 1.1265. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling within its own channel, from the lower border of which it has turned up, which indicates that the price will likely fall only in the evening.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 17, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD price moved towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2674, but bulls was not strong enough to break through it and the price reversed. The market conditions are now bouncing from the oversold levels, so the bulls might risk another wave up from the current levels towards the nearest technical resistance seen at the level of 1.2747. Nevertheless, they have to violate the level of 1.2674 first. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2645.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3034
WR2 - 1.2910
WR1 - 1.2681
Weekly Pivot - 1.2581
WS1 - 1.2343
WS2 - 1.2226
WS3 - 1.2014

Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

USD/CHF price movement, June 19, 2020

On the 4 hour chart now, we can see that USD/CHF is now moving in a narrow range. Overall, this pair has already formed a Triangle Pattern. It means that the USD/CHF pair will soon decline especially if this pair breaks out and closes bellow the red rectangle/ It will break through 0.9480 and 0.9375. This scenario is likely to occur if the pair does not rise and close above 0.9553.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 23, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has tested the lower level of the support range located at 1.1185 and bounced towards the short-term trend line resistance located around the level of 1.1265. The oversold market conditions might help the bulls to test the nearest technical resistance, but they must break through the short-term trend line resistance in order to regain the control over the market. Any violation of the level of 1.1148 will accelerate the sell-off towards the next technical support seen at 1.0009. So, it is important for bulls to defend this level, but only a sustained violation of the short-term trend line resistance would put them back into control (around the level of 1.1300).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1456
WR2 - 1.1397
WR1 - 1.1266
Weekly Pivot - 1.1215
WS1 - 1.1074
WS2 - 1.1031
WS3 - 1.0903

Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 25, 2020

EUR/JPY is in a minor correction from 121.10 preparing for a new impulsive rally higher towards the key-resistance at 122.12. A break above here will confirm that wave 2 has been completed. It is likely to test 119.41 and wave 3 is in motion for an ultimate break above the peak at 124.43.

In the short-term, we are looking for a break above minor resistance at 120.75 to confirm this minor correction is completed and the rally to 122.12 is unfolding.

R3: 122.12
R2: 121.58
R1: 121.23
Pivot: 120.75
S1: 120.19
S2: 119.88
S3: 119.60

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 119.95 and we have our stop placed at 119.35.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 29, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:
Over the past few years, cryptocurrencies have attracted a lot of interest from institutional investors. Encryption has become quite popular due to more rules on the digital asset market. However, since most economies work with digital resources, there has also been pressure to strengthen regulations so that cryptocurrencies do not become a safe haven for money laundering and other illegal activities. Recent AML regulations and FAFT guidelines aimed to strengthen cryptography regulations.

However, as digital assets are gaining popularity in the world of finance, traditional financial institutions such as banks have now come under the eye of dealing with cryptocurrency users and stock exchanges regarding virtual assets. A recent Ciphertrace report looked at how virtual asset laws can affect banks. The report notes that 57% of these Virtual Asset Providers (VASPs) had weak or porous KYC processes. This is a greater threat because a weak KYC can lead to bad entities being able to launder virtual assets through stock exchanges operating as fiat off-ramps according to the report.

It is not clear, however, whether large banks are willing or willing to cope with exposure to crypto assets and at the same time ensure that there is no illegal activity in space. Although the number of cryptocurrencies has increased significantly over the years, mainstream banks still have reservations about users and cryptographic transactions. In the recent past, Bank of America raised concerns and kept customers from using debit cards to buy cryptocurrency. However, at the beginning of the Fifth Anti-Money Laundering Directive or AMLD5 it was pointed out that banks cannot refuse to provide services to sectors and must analyze cryptocurrencies on a case-by-case basis.

According to data provided by Ciphertrace, almost 74% of Bitcoins transferred in "from exchange to exchange" transactions have been transferred cross-border and pose a significant risk of money laundering. Given this scenario, FATF noted that illegal users of virtual assets (VAs) may, for example, benefit from the global reach and transaction speed that VA provides, as well as from inadequate regulation or supervision of financial activities and VA suppliers in various jurisdictions, resulting in inconsistent legal and regulatory rules of the game in the VA ecosystem.

Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $8,795, which means the key short-term technical support located at the level of $8,858 had been violated. The bounce has been continued for some time now, but so far it was rather shallow and the price is starting to reverse again. If the intraday support located at the level of $8,971 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high as the momentum is still weak and negative. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,565.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,465
WR2 - $10,072
WR1 - $9,509
Weekly Pivot - $9,126
WS1 - $8,593
WS2 - $8,191
WS3 - 7,623

Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 1, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:
Anxiety in the cryptocurrency community is growing every day. No change in Bitcoin prices, trade between $ 9,000 to $ 9,500, for almost two months is currently not perceived as a feature of the strongest cryptocurrency in the world, but rather its relationship with larger financial markets.

Bitcoin, for most of this year, when the pandemic began shifting markets, acted against itself. According to the "uncorrelated" status, the cryptocurrency reached enormous highs when both the stock market and the commodity market collapsed, losing millions. This is despite the fact that Bitcoin lost over 50% of its value in one day in March and increased its supply by 50% in May.

However, now that price and supply have normalized, the unstable asset is stable from the outset, and some cryptocurrency community members suggest that the reason is that it has not yet separated from the stock market.

Bitcoins and the larger cryptocurrency market, despite being called 'decentralized', have often exerted an impact on macroeconomic activities, usually affecting traditional markets. Last year, Bitcoin saw movement in the gold market on various isolated occasions, mainly because of the safe harbor narrative in times of economic or political turmoil.

Now the prices on the stock market offset the negative effects of the slowdown of global economies by a pandemic and the inflow of liquidity from central banks. At this time, Bitcoin is actually moving according to the highest stock index, S & P500. Market data indicate that the 1-month correlation of Bitcoins with S & P500 is the highest in over a year, and is currently estimated at over 42.6%.

Because Bitcoin is "coupled" with S & P500, this presents a different set of short-term fate for cryptocurrency in the future. Given the likelihood of a second package of government assistance in the United States, another injection of freshly minted dollars may again positively affect Bitcoin, as it did in May. Another scenario is the second wave of COVID-19 cases that could cause another liquidation madness.

Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $9,129, but there is a Doji candlestick pattern made at the top of this move, so if the intraday support located at the level of $8,971 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high. The momentum is still weak and negative, but is getting closer to the level of fifty, which is a neutral level for the momentum indicator. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,565, but in a case of an upside breakout, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $9,249 (technical resistance level).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,465
WR2 - $10,072
WR1 - $9,509
Weekly Pivot - $9,126
WS1 - $8,593
WS2 - $8,191
WS3 - 7,623

Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

echnical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 3, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:
After the EUR/USD pair has made series of Pin Bar candlesticks just above the key short-term support located at the level of 1.1185 some serious bounce has been expected, but it turned out the bulls have a fuel only to rally to the level of 1.1302. Then the Bearish Engulfing candlestick was made and the really reversed. The bulls might still be heading north, so any violation of the level of 1.1302 makes the rally towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.1347 highly possible, so please keep an eye on the current developments at this market. Please notice the positive market conditions and strong momentum support the short-term bullish outlook. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.1484 WR2 - 1.1410 WR1 - 1.1289

Weekly Pivot - 1.1235
WS1 - 1.1124
WS2 - 1.1056
WS3 - 1.0936

Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 7, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro broke the resistance of the target level of 1.1265 on Monday, showing a growth of 61 points. The price peaked on June 23. After overcoming the intermediate level of 1.1353, we expect the growth to continue to 1.1420, the second goal is 1.1465. Reaching any of these levels with the Marlin oscillator will form a technical divergence, which will become a reversal signal. Perhaps a medium-term downward trend.

The price is firmly held above both indicator lines on the four-hour chart – the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue). The Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. We are waiting for the euro to grow to the designated goal of 1.1420.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 8, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:
After the EUR/USD pair has hit the level of 1.1347 which is the part of the supply zone located between the levels of 1.1347 - 1.1361 the price reversed quickly. The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at the top of the rally has forced bulls to pull-back towards the technical support located at the level of 1.1300, but even this level was violated and the market trades now around 1.1268. The key intraday support is still seen at the level of 1.2228 and break out below this level will likely end up in test of the 1.1185 support. The momentum remains positive on H4 time frame, but there is no clear indication regarding the market conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.2879
WR2 - 1.2698
WR1 - 1.2610
Weekly Pivot - 1.2423
WS1 - 1.2323
WS2 - 1.2148
WS3 - 1.2056

Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.