1 (edited by araza 2018-01-13 05:16:15)

Topic: Would you trade this portfolio???

I made the following portfolio..looks too good to be true...I want everyone's your opinion on it. This was done with a $1,000 account and 0.01 lots. I want to allocate funds...the biggest thing I have struggled so far in developing EAs is drawdown. I can never be sure. I look at this and can safely say that drawdown is about 8% so on a bad day I should not be down more than $80. What other factors do you look at. Any feedback would be HIGHLY appreciated.


Jan 8. vs Jan 13 backtest results.


Re: Would you trade this portfolio???

Hello Araza,

Personally I like the look of this portfolio - PF of 2, low max draw down (7.92% isnt so bad... on a 1k account - that a loss of 80 bucks if you start in drawdown). Sharpe ratio of 0.25 - but amazing SQN (>5 is awesome).

But maybe let me put it in another way.. if you have done your homework (i.e using your tools to build strategy) and you wont risk 1k USD - then you aren't serious about trading forex. If you are truly nervous - throw it in Demo, run for 6 months and you can compare the stats.   If the personality of your portfolio seems the same - throw your 1k into an account and hit play smile

Your a smart guy - if you can't recover from risking 1k, then your doing something wrong.. so... GO FOR IT!


Re: Would you trade this portfolio???

The only way you will know is to actually have the thing trading.

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

4 (edited by araza 2018-01-15 09:48:10)

Re: Would you trade this portfolio???

Thank you for your responses. I am not nervous as at all about investing $1,000..I put this out there as so far all the EAs that I have developed give me worse drawdown than in the backtest. I never do demo account as only do 0.01 lots and my experience shows demo results to e very different from live. I have launched EAs in both demo and live and results were different.

I put this out there so see if the way I am looking at an EA you would look at it the same way. DocZero approach helped me as that is how I look at an EA.

I had already launched the EA in a live account. So far in the last few months I have not had very good experience with Algo trading so have my fingers crossed and am in it for the long haul.

As for recovering lost money..lost my midas touch a few months back..anything I touch these days turns to dust....lol


Re: Would you trade this portfolio???

Araza, backtest always produces over-optimistic results. Do not expect to see similar metrics from live trading. Try to develop strats, which remain in profit in live trading, unseen data, after that you can start fine tuning.