EUR/USD: growth possibility remains

Current trend
This week, the pair recovered the losses it incurred last Friday when the US released strong data on the labour market. At present, the price corrected to the region of the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and attempts to resume its growth. Critical for Bulls seems to be the level of 1.1166 that coincides with 23.6% Fibonacci correction. Its breakout would lead to a growth continuation to the levels of 1.1200, 1.1233, and possibly 1.1270. For Bears, crucial would be the level of 1.1125 that coincides with the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, a breakdown of which would open the way towards the levels of 1.1090, 1.1058 and 1.1015.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in the US. According to forecasts, the index will fall that might pressure the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators give contradicting signals. Bollinger bands are directed up. Stochastic lines turned down. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 1.1125, 1.1090, 1.1058, 1.1015.
Resistance levels: 1.1166, 1.1200, 1.1233, 1.1270.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1166 with targets at 1.1200, 1.1233, 1.1270 and stop-loss at 1.1130. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1125 with targets at 1.1090, 1.1058 and stop-loss at 1.1155. Validity – 2-3 days.

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week, the USD/CAD pair was under pressure amid a growth in oil prices. The Canadian Dollar gained strong support when Saudi Energy Minister said the country would discuss measures aimed at stabilizing prices with other oil producers during a meeting in late September.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia boosted its oil output in July to a record 10.67 million barrels a day and lowered the pricing terms for Asian clients that is seen as a negative factor for the Canadian Dollar.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is moving down. MACD histogram remains in the negative zone, its volumes are falling and keeping. Stochastic is heading towards the border of the overbought zone.
Short positions seem preferable, but it is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals before placing your orders.
Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2935, 1.2922, 1.2912, 1.2901.
Resistance levels: 1.2974, 1.2988, 1.3199, 1.3002, 1.3016, 1.3061.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current levels with targets at 1.2925, 1.2915 and stop-loss at 1.2980. Validity – 1-3 days.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2980 with the target at 1.3010 and stop-loss at 1.2960. Validity – 2-4 days.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Today the pair is consolidating after a significant growth yesterday amid the publication of weak data in the US.
The Consumer Price Index in July grew by only 0.8%, which was worse than forecasts and increased doubts on the market regarding the possibility of monetary policy tightening by the Fed this year. In addition, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment in the eurozone increased from -14.7 to 4.6 points, substantially exceeding forecasts, while the trade balance surplus rose from 24.6 billion to 29.9 billion Euro.

Support and resistance
On the hourly chart, the pair has formed a “triangle” patter, with the upper border at the level of 1.1283 and the lower at 1.1254.
RSI is trying to turn down in approximately the middle of its range.
The nearest support level is at 1.1254.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1283.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1254 with the target at 1.1200 and stop-loss at 1.1283.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair continued growing amid weakening in the US Dollar. The American currency is pressured by a low probability of an interest rate increase by the Fed this year as the latest FOMC Minutes showed a unanimous opinion of key committee members to leave the rate unchanged.
Today no important macroeconomic data that could affect dynamics in the pair is expected to be published.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed up and the price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is falling and approaching the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.1310, 1.1303, 1.1296, 1.1289, 1.1279, 1.1266, 1.1251.
Resistance levels: 1.1328, 1.1339, 1.1348, 1.1355, 1.1364, 1.1370.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.1350 and stop-loss at 1.1310. Validity – 1 day.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1295 with the target at 1.1240 and stop-loss at 1.1315. Validity – 1-3 days.

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid weakening in the US Dollar, which remains under pressure due to a fallen probability of monetary policy tightening by the American regulator in the nearest future. In addition, the pair was supported by today’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand President Graeme Wheeler speech in which he noted the effectiveness of pursued monetary policy and suggested it would be reasonable to tighten it in the near term.
This week, extra attention needs to be paid to data on the US GDP that is due on Friday. An expected fall in the index from 1.2% to 1.1% might substantially support the pair.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is testing a strong resistance level at 0.7325.
Bollinger Bands is directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic turned up near the border of the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 0.7278, 0.7240, 0.7201, 0.7179, 0.7143, 0.7110, 0.7064.
Resistance levels: 0.7325, 0.7339, 0.7367, 0.7401.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7370, 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7240. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7200 with the target at 0.7140 and stop-loss at 0.7220. Validity – 2-4 days.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is trading within a downward trend. The instrument is being pressured by strengthening in the US Dollar amid expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in September if macroeconomic indicators come out in line with Fed’s forecasts. This week is full of important macroeconomic releases that can have a strong impact on dynamics in the EUR/USD pair. This week’s key publication is data on the US labor market. Statistics on the Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate are due on Friday. Favorable data will boost chances of an interest rate increase and allow the US Dollar to strengthen more against the Euro. Thus, short-term dynamics in the EUR/USD pair will be influenced by US macroeconomic statistics.

Support and resistance

MACD histogram on the 4-hour chart remains in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. The indicator is forming a sell signal. Bollinger bands are directed down, suggesting a downward trend continuation.
Support levels: 1.1160, 1.1110, 1.1048.
Resistance levels: 1.1205, 1.1267, 1.1310.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 1.1160 with targets at 1.1110, 1.1048.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1.1205 with the target at 1.1267.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the pair substantially grew amid weakening in the US Dollar, which was pressured by poor data on the ISM Manufacturing PMI from the US. In August, the index fell from 52.6 points to 49.4 points while economists predicted a fall to only 52.0 points.

Today extra attention needs to be paid to data on the US labour market. According to forecasts, the Unemployment Rate will fall to 4.8% while the Nonfarm Payrolls will amount to 180 thousands. Data below forecasts might significantly pressure the Dollar, as it would decrease the chances of an interest rate hike by the Fed in September.
High volatility is expected on the market. Traders should refrain from opening new positions before the publication.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level: 1.1126.
The nearest resistance level: 1.1207.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1207 with the target at 1.1255 and stop-loss at 1.1190.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the EUR/USD pair significantly grew and reached the level of 1.1262.
The pair was supported by weak data on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the US. In August, the index fell from 55.5 to 51.4 points while experts forecasted a decline to only 55.0 points. After the release, the probability of an interest rate hike in September fell to 9%.
Tomorrow extra attention needs to be paid to the ECB Interest Rate Decision. Experts anticipate an expansion in the stimulus program that might substantially pressure the Euro.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues moving along a narrow sideway channel.
Technical indicators give contradicting signals. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is turning down in the overbought zone.
Support levels: 1.1230, 1.1180, 1.1125.
Resistance levels: 1.1270, 1.1305, 1.1340.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1270 with the target at 1.1340 and stop-loss at 1.1250.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1230 with the target at 1.1180 and stop-loss at 1.1250.

UKBrent: technical analysis

UKBrent, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument failed to overcome a strong resistance level at 48.55. Bollinger Bands is about to turn down while its price range remains unchanged. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling. Stochastic turned down near the border of the overbought zone.

UKBrent, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band while bands are horizontal. MACD histogram is about to cross over the zero line from above. Stochastic is growing and approaching the border of the overbought zone.

Key levels

Support levels: 47.73, 47.61, 47.51, 47.32, 47.11, 46.97, 46.81 (local low).
Resistance levels: 48.14, 48.43 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 48.68, 48.98, 49.18, 49.41.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 47.30 and stop-loss at 48.45. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 48.45 with the target at 48.90 and stop-loss at 48.25. Validity – 1-2 days.

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The Federal Reserve will hold its September meeting next week, and now market volatility is likely to be increasing amid publications of data on the US economy. Today attention needs to be paid to statistics on jobless claims and retail sales. Economists expect the number of initial jobless claims to increase from 259,000 to 265,000 and the volume of retail sales to fall by 0.1%. If the indicators come out better than market consensus, the US Dollar is likely to get support that would lead to a fall in the pair.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1319.25.
The nearest resistance level is at 1325.66.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1318.00 with the target at 1315.00 and stop-loss at 1320.00.

USD/CHF: Dollar strengthened

Current trend

The US Dollar strengthened against the majority of other currencies on the market last Friday amid the publication of positive data on consumer inflation in the US. On a year-to-year basis, the Consumer Price Index in August grew by 1.1% that was a 0.1% better than forecasts of economists. In July, inflation showed a 0.8% growth. The Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy accelerated its growth from 2.2% to 2.3% while economists predicted no change in the index.

The data increased expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Fed in the nearest future. However, the probability of an interest rate hike this week remains very low and stands at only 9%. Markets are focused on the December meeting of the regulator.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic is growing as well and approaching the border of the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 0.9783 (local low), 0.9762, 0.9737, 0.9709, 0.9689 (12 September low), 0.9668, 0.9648 (8 September low), 0.9630, 0.9600, 0.9570, 0.9535 (18 August low), 0.9520.
Resistance levels: 0.9800 (local high), 0.9816 (local high), 0.9842, 0.9864, 0.9883 (1 September high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.9800 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.9864, 0.9883 and stop-loss at 0.9762. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.9762 with targets at 0.9689, 0.9668, 0.9648 and stop-loss at 0.9825. Validity – 2-3 days.

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday the EUR/USD pair showed choppy trade and slightly fell on the day.
Today investors are focused on the US Fed Interest Rate Decision. Markets do not expect any changes in interest rates. In addition, the regulator will release its forecasts on economic growth, unemployment, inflation and its further plans regarding monetary policy.

At the same time, few of experts forecast an increase in interest rates during this meeting as some of the Fed officials earlier supported such step. However, the probability of this remains low.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the pair continues falling along the descending channel.
MACD histogram is about to enter the negative zone. Stochastic lines are in the oversold zone and directed down.
Support levels: 1.1120, 1.1050, 1.0980.
Resistance levels: 1.1180, 1.1230, 1.1300.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1180 with targets at 1.1230, 1.1300 and stop-loss at 1.1150.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1120 with the target at 1.1050 and stop-loss at 1.1150.