USD/CAD approaching support, potential bounce!

USDCAD is approaching our first support at 1.3295 (horizontal swing low support, short term ascending line) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our first resistance level at 1.3407 (horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ). Stochastic is also approaching support where we might see a corresponding bounce in price.

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GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

GBPUSD is approaching our first support at 1.3000 (horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level to our first support level at 1.3136 (horizontal swing high resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ).

Stochastic is also approaching support where we might see a corresponding bounce in price.

Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.

Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

XAU/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

XAUUSD is approaching our first support at 1275.34 (horizontal swing low support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 1308.70 (horizontal swing high resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement ).

Stochastic is also approaching support where we might see a corresponding bounce in price.

Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.

Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

The US following China may surprise markets with unexpectedly high GDP growth in the first quarter

The latest temporary government shutdown, trade conflicts and a slowdown in global growth — against this background, the prospects for the first quarter for the US economy did not look promising. However, GDP data for the first three months of 2019 may surprise. After the Chinese economy unexpectedly grew during this period, it is expected that the United States will see a growth of 2.1 percent, although previously the range of analysts' estimates began from 1 percent. In the forecasts of the Atlanta Fed, the range is even more optimistic, between 2.2 and 3.4 percent. If recently most experts spoke about the weakness of the US economy, now they are expecting strong growth in the first quarter. In addition, companies have increased investment, in March, retail sales in the country grew at the fastest rate in 1.5 years - all opposed to the version of the beginning of a recession.

The unexpected reduction in the US trade deficit in February is also evidence of higher growth rates, and only weak production volumes — recall the recent first quarterly decline in industrial output after the election of Donald Trump — can explain such a wide range of estimates.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 26/04/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD market is now consolidating in a narrow range between the levels of 1.1118 - 1.1145 after the downtrend has passed a for a while due to the oversold market conditions. The momentum remains weak anyway and there is no sign of any trend reversal yet. The first important technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1176 and the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1109 and 1.1027.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1384
WR2 - 1.1352
WR1 - 1.1289
Weekly Pivot - 1.1254
WS1 - 1.1188
WS2 - 1.1157
WS3 - 1.1092

Trading recommendations:
The last take profit level at 1.1118 has been hit and all sell orders should be closed with profit. The traders should now wait for another trading setup to occur shortly.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

EUR/USD testing key resistance, potential reversal!

Price is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance where we can expect a drop below this level to our first support level. Stochastic is approaching resistance as well.

Entry : 1.1190
Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance, 23.6%, 38.2% fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension
Stop Loss : 1.1225
Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement Take Profit : 1.1124
Why it's good : horizontal swing low support

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 3, 2019

EUR/USD

On Thursday, the dollar strengthened, adding 0.2% to the index, which was facilitated by good data on the growth of factory orders – the March figure grew by 1.9% against expectations of 1.0%. The euro lost 22 points, eventually gaining support from the four-hour balance line. The Marlin oscillator on H4 indicates a further decrease in the trend.

Today, the main news will be data on employment in the United States. The increase in jobs outside the agricultural sector in April is expected to be 181 thousand, the average hourly wage may grow by 0.3%, business activity in the non-production sector from ISM is expected to be 57.2 against 56.1 a month earlier.

But in the afternoon, the European CPI is set to be released, and here the forecasts are also optimistic; The base CPI for April is expected to be 1.0% y/y against 0.8% in March, the overall CPI is 1.6% against 1.4% earlier.

The minimum task for the euro today is to consolidate below the level of 1.1155, with fresh forces next week to continue the decline to 1.1075 and 1.0985. The target levels are determined by the Fibonacci grid of the daily chart.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Aussie messed up the policy

Following Donald Trump, other representatives of the US administration called on the Fed to lower the Federal funds rate. Vice President Michael Pence and chief economic adviser to the head of state Larry Kudlow believe that the economy works very well and the time has come to further disperse it by easing monetary policy. However, the US central bank has not yet followed the White House. Moreover, his colleagues from Australia have the best chance of monetary expansion. According to estimates of the derivatives market, the likelihood that the RBA will reduce the cash rate to a record low of 1.25% at the May meeting, is at 50: 50. It is interesting that even here it can not do without pressure from politicians.

Australia will have Parliamentary elections on May 18, and regardless of who comes to power (for now, according to opinion polls, Labor is in the lead), the new government will focus on stimulating monetary and fiscal policies. A significant slowdown in GDP growth in the second half of 2018, cooling of retail sales and a fall in real estate prices require increasing consumer activity. It is possible that the Reserve Bank will become a hostage of the current ruling party. 17 out of 42 experts polled by Reuters expect that at a meeting on May 7 it will reduce the cash rate by 25 bp. Most experts believe that by the end of the year the rate may fall to 1% against the background of a significant slowdown in inflation.

Australian Inflation Dynamics and RBA Rates

It should be noted that in recent months, the RBA's outlook has changed significantly. If in December Philip Lowe said that monetary policy could be tightened for the first time since 2010, in February he focused on keeping the rate at 1.5%, by April he began to hint at monetary expansion. If it does happen, the RBA will be the first central bank of a developed country to decide to reduce borrowing costs. According to AMP Capital, the beginning of the monetary easing cycle will lead to the peak of AUD/USD to 0.6.

While the "bears" on the aussie rely on the weakness of the Australian economy, "bulls", on the contrary, adopt external factors. BofA Merrill Lynch sees the analyzed pair at 0.78 by the end of the year, Goldman Sachs recommends buying it as the Chinese economy recovers. Even the best forecaster of Bloomberg, during the end of the first quarter Tempus Inc expects the growth of AUD/USD to 0.74 by the end of 2019. Donald Trump, who announced an increase in tariffs for imports from China, could spoil the karma for aussie fans. The market was confident that Beijing and Washington were about to sign the deal, but such threats undermined this belief, contributing to the deterioration of the global risk appetite.

Technically, the implementation of the "Expanding wedge" and AB=CD patterns reinforces the risks of continuing the Australian dollar's downward hike to the target by 161.8% according to the latest model. It corresponds to $0.687.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal!

Price is approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price to our first support level.
Entry : 1.12270
Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss : 1.1277
Why it's good : 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, pullback retracement
Take Profit : 1.1144
Why it's good : horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

Price is approaching support where we are expecting a bounce above this level.
Entry : 1.2930
Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension Stop Loss : 1.2861
Why it's good : horizontal swing low support
Take Profit : 1.3053 Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

EUR/USD 3 Star Sell Signal | Fundamental + Technical Analysis

Fundamentals: Heightened transatlantic tensions drove the currency lower as EU is ready to retaliate against $23 billion of US goods with US auto tariffs deadline of 18 May approaching. Those duties would be based on the same national - security grounds invoked for controversial American levies on foreign steel and Aluminum. US tariffs on European cars and auto parts will mark a significant escalation of transatlantic tensions because the value of EU automotive exports to the America market is about 10 times greater than that of the bloc's steels and aluminum exports combined. Hence, if the auto tariffs are imposed, EU retaliatory duties would target a bigger amount of US exports to Europe. Elsewhere, Italian 2 year yield rose sharply while EUR plummeted on as Italy Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said the nation is ready to break EU fiscal rules if necessary to boost employment.

Technical analysis:

Price is starting to break an ascending support line and we expect it to drop further to 1.1180. It reacted perfectly from our resistance level yesterday and is on track to reaching its profit target.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Control zones NZDUSD 05/20/19

The downward movement is a medium-term impulse, so selling is still a priority. It is not profitable to sell on Monday from current grades, since the target of the fall is the weekly CZ of 0.6470-0.6456. Any growth should be used as an opportunity to sell the pair. The first resistance will be WCZ 1/4 06545-0.6542.

The downward trend is so strong that it will be possible to look for opportunities for buying only if a daily absorption takes place and the US session closes above Friday's maximum. This model will be the starting point in the formation of a deep correctional model, the next goal of which will be WCZ 1/2 0.6584-0.6577. While the pair will be trading below the specified zone, the bearish trend will not turn.

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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