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Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

Nasdaq 100 - American stock market is preparing for a reversal

One of the leading US indexes Nasdaq 100 shows corrective dynamics, being at around 12500.0, reversing downwards amid disappointing financial results of large companies. The situation cannot be changed even by the strengthening of the positions of the American currency, supported by data on an increase in the Nonfarm Payrolls by 517.0 thousand jobs with an expected growth of only 190.0 thousand.

The largest online retailer Amazon.com Inc. reported close-to-loss quarterly earnings per share of just 0.03 dollars, worse than the 0.17 dollars forecast. At the same time, the company increased its revenue from 127.1 billion dollars to 149.2 billion dollars. Technology giant Apple Inc. posted earnings per share of 1.88 dollars, lower than the expected 1.94 dollars, and revenue of 117.2 billion dollars versus a forecast of 121.88 billion dollars. In turn, Alphabet Inc. reported revenue of 76.05 billion dollars versus a forecast of 76.07 billion dollars and earnings per share of 1.05 dollars, down from the previous quarter's figure of 1.06 dollars.

https://i.ibb.co/hYcpn6q/nq.png

On the daily chart, the index quotes are correcting as part of the global Expanding Formation pattern, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators are holding a buy signal, which is about to start weakening.

Support levels: 12200, 11400 | Resistance levels: 12800, 13600

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XAUUSD - Global demand for gold remains at a record high

Yesterday, gold quotes recorded the most significant drop since last June, dropping by 90.0 dollars from 1950.0 to Friday's low at 1860.0, the key driver of which was the growth of the US dollar from 101.500 to 102.900 in the USD Index against the background of a strong report on the US labor market. Investors perceived the movement as a local correction, which will not receive a serious continuation since the fundamental global background does not contribute to the decline in the asset: according to the report for 2022, global demand for gold amounted to 4.741K tons, which is an absolute record since 2011. Most of the positive momentum came from central banks' purchases, which mostly wished to remain anonymous. According to experts, regulators thus hope to protect themselves from possible sanctions, providing strong support for national economies.

https://i.ibb.co/r5W4104/gold.png

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting, keeping around the support line of the rising corridor. Technical indicators weaken the buy signal.

Resistance levels: 1900, 1960 | Support levels: 1860, 1800

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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EURUSD Heads Towards the Second Target

The EURUSD pair broke 1.0830 level strongly to open the way to achieve more decline on the intraday basis, targeting testing 1.0745 as a next negative station, to keep the bearish bias dominant in the upcoming sessions.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurusd_2.png

It is important to monitor the price when reaching the suggested target, as breaking it will push the price to achieve more decline that its next target reaches 1.0635, taking into consideration that breaching 1.0865 will stop the current negative pressure and lead the price to regain the main bullish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0695 support and 1.0865 resistance.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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AUDUSD Hits the Target

The AUDUSD pair managed to achieve our waited target at 0.6920 and settles around it now, settling below the bullish channel’s support line to fall under more correctional pressure in the upcoming sessions, targeting visiting 0.6780 areas as a next main station.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/audusd_1.png

Therefore, the bearish bias will remain suggested in the upcoming sessions, taking into consideration that breaching 0.6945 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to return to the main bullish track again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6850 support and 0.6980 resistance

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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GBPUSD Crawls Downwards

The GBPUSD pair approach 1.2000 barrier, showing tight sideways trades now, noticing that stochastic loses its positive momentum gradually, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bearish bias that targets testing 1.1940 level as a next station.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/gbpusd_2.png

Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid and active conditioned by the price stability below 1.2115. The expected trading range for today is between 1.1950 support and 1.2100 resistance.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

NZDUSD Faces Solid Support

The NZDUSD pair found solid support at 0.6290, to show some slight bullish bias and begins attempts to build bullish wave, but it loses the positive momentum clearly, which might force the price to decline again and attack the mentioned level in attempt to achieve more bearish correction.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/nzdusd_1.png

Therefore, we prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend, noting that breaking the mentioned support will push the price to head towards 0.6210 followed by 0.6140 levels as next negative targets, while breaching 0.6365 represents positive factor that will lead the price to recover and achieve gains that start at 0.6445. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6260 support and 0.6380 resistance.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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USDCHF Crawls Upwards

The USDCHF pair shows calm positive trades to gradually approach our waited target at 0.9315, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active as long as 0.9220 level remains intact.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/usdchf_2.png

Note that breaching the targeted level will extend the bullish wave to reach 0.9475 areas on the near term basis, while breaking 0.9220 represents negative factor that will push the price to the main bearish track again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9200 support and 0.9360 resistance.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

Crude Oil - Global oil supply holds stable levels

The market remains stable, and more and more experts agree that the sanctions imposed by Western countries to limit the export of Russian oil do not bring the expected result. Yesterday, Bloomberg published an article reporting another record of weekly marine fuel supplies from Russia: by February 3, their daily volume increased by 125 K barrels to 3.456M barrels, and China, India and Turkey were the main buyers, the total volume for which amounted to 3.29M barrels. However, transportation through pipelines continues to decline, and in January the figure for Germany and Poland fell to 120K barrels per day. Yesterday it became known that Japan joined the sanctions policy of the G7 and European countries aimed at setting the price limit for Russian oil products transported by sea in the amount of 100 dollars per barrel and 40 dollars per barrel, depending on the category. The restrictions came into effect on February 6 but the limit, as noted, will be reviewed every two months, depending on the market situation.

https://i.ibb.co/q50R66X/oil.png

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within the global downwards corridor, gradually approaching the support line around 70.00.

Resistance levels: 83.3, 89 | Support levels: 79.6, 74

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USDCHF Crawls Upwards

The USDCHF pair shows calm positive trades to gradually approach our waited target at 0.9315, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active as long as 0.9220 level remains intact.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/usdchf_2.png

Note that breaching the targeted level will extend the bullish wave to reach 0.9475 areas on the near term basis, while breaking 0.9220 represents negative factor that will push the price to the main bearish track again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9200 support and 0.9360 resistance.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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XRPUSD - Technical analysis

The XRPUSD pair has been actively growing since the beginning of this year as part of the general market trend. However, at present, the upward dynamics have seriously slowed. The price reached three-month highs around 0.4290, after which it rolled back to 0.3906 (Murrey level [8/8]). Fixation below it will give the prospect of further decline to 0.3662 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 0.3418 (Murrey level [6/8]). If the quotes consolidate above the resistance zone of 0.4050 – 0.4150 (middle line of Bollinger bands, Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murrey level [+1/8]), growth may continue to 0.4395 (Murrey level [+2/8]), 0.4565 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 0.4750.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/xrp.png

Technical indicators point to the continuation of the uptrend. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic is reversing upwards from the oversold zone, and the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 0.415, 0.4395, 0.4565, 0.475 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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GBPAUD Prepares for New Decline

The GBPAUD pair repeated the strong negative trades affected by the negative momentum coming by the major indicators, to consolidate below 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at 1.7500.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/gbpaud_1.png

We expect to crawl towards 1.7190 to form the first target for the bearish track, noting that breaking this obstacle will allow the price to continue the decline and target more negative stations that might start at 1.7110 and 1.7055. The expected trading range for today is between 1.7360 and 1.7110.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

GBPJPY Repeats the Negative Closings

The GBPJPY pair confirmed keeping the domination of the bearish bias by providing new negative close below the additional barrier 159.90, to notice forming bearish waves and achieve some negative targets by reaching 157.45.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/gbpjpy.png

We expect to gather the additional negative momentum to resume the bearish attack and succeed to crawl below 157.30 obstacle to target 156.65 followed by 155.70 levels direct. The expected trading range for today is between 159.00 and 157.3.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair declined clearly yesterday to approach our waited target at 1.0635, but it bounced bullishly to test 1.0745 again, and it keeps its stability below it until now, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid for the upcoming period, noting that surpassing the mentioned target will push the price to 1.0515 as a next negative station.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurusd_3.png

On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.0745 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0640 support and 1.0800 resistance.

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Bitcoin is Trying to Maintain Momentum Above $23,000

Bitcoin is trading near $23,000 today. After Powell's speech yesterday, cryptocurrencies were unable to continue their rally despite the initial euphoria. The mood among cryptocurrencies is mixed, with the biggest loser being Graph which gained nearly 50% yesterday on the AI trend. Let's take a look at some key 'on-chain' indicators like NUPL and SOPR, and see how the balance of short (STH) and long-term (LTH) BTC addresses:

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/btc-1_1.png

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/ Loss Ratio) indicator tracks the ratio of unrealized profit/loss and shows that the rally has lifted Bitcoin above the average purchase price of the broad market, making the 'average' BTC holder back in profit. Compiling the duration of the negative NUPL in all the bull markets, we observe a historical similarity between the current cycle (166 days) and the bear markets of 2011-12 (157 days) and 2018-19 (134 days). However, the 2015-2016 bear market stood out under this, experiencing a dominance of unrealized losses twice as long as the current one. This could serve as a potential warning signal should BTC return below $20,000.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/btc-2_1.png

The ratio between the total unrealized gain held by the market and its annual average could be another indicator of momentum. The momentum metric is currently approaching the equilibrium point and shows similarities to the recent phases of the 2015 and 2018 bull markets. Confirmed breakouts above the equilibrium point (1 - the horizontal red line) coincided with a change in the market's profit structure in the past foreshadowed a longer recovery in sentiment. The length of time elapsed below the equilibrium point was similar in all major bear markets, but reaching a key on-chain level may foreshadow supply resistance - the index is struggling to climb above resistance on a sustained basis, which underscores how important it is to overcome $24,000 on a sustained basis.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/btc-3.png

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator can be used to check the profit aggregated by different groups of BTC holders. For short-term traders (STH, in red), we see that the STH-SOPR is currently trading above the 1.0 value, showing the first sharp increase in profitability since March 2022. This reflects the large amount of BTC purchased at lower prices in recent months, which can be sold at a profit if sentiment weakens further.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/btc4.png

It is positive that not only short-term investors but the broader market also gained after a very deep and prolonged period of losses. However, assessing the LTH (Long Term Holder) group of long-term investors, we can see that the stressful situation has continued nd since the LUNY implosion. Although the group is still, on average, in a loss, there are the first signs of recovery, including the potential formation of an upward LTH-SOPR trend. During the 2018 bull market, long-term investors averaged 291 days in losses; today it's about 265 days.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/btc-4.png

Bitcoin, W1 interval. The major cryptocurrency is still struggling to climb above the 200-week average, which has turned into resistance from its historic, very strong support in 2022.

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NZDUSD Within Sideways Track

The NZDUSD pair still stuck between the next trend keys represented by 0.6290 support and 0.6360 resistance, which makes us continue with our neutrality until now, waiting to breach one of these levels to detect the next destination clearly.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/nzdusd_2.png

We remind you that breaking the support will press on the price to achieve negative targets that start at 0.6210 followed by 0.6140, while breaching the resistance will lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend and head towards 0.6465 followed by 0.6530 levels as main positive stations. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6270 support and 0.6400 resistance.

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USDJPY tests the resistance

The USDJPY pair tested 131.65 level by today’s open, keeping its stability below it, accompanied by stochastic reach to the overbought areas, which supports the chances of resuming the negative trades to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 130.40 and extend to 128.90.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/usdjpy_4.png

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, reminding you that it is important to hold below 131.65 to continue the expected decline. The expected trading range for today is between 130.4 support and 132 resistance.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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USDCAD Attempts to Recover

The USDCAD pair approached 1.3350 level and bounced upwards clearly to test the first key resistance 1.3450, consolidating below this level until now, noticing that stochastic shows clear negative signals now, waiting to push the price to resume the bearish trend that its targets begin at 1.3350 and extend to 1.3280 after breaking the previous level.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/usdcad_3.png

Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid conditioned by the price stability below 1.3450 and 1.3500 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 1.3350 support and 1.3490 resistance.

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CADCHF Technical Analysis

The CADCHF pair succeeded to gather the additional negative momentum to confirm the continuation of the previously suggested negativity and notice its crawl towards 0.6840 recently, also, the stability of the additional barrier 0.6920 forms major factor to confirm the domination of the bearish bias, which allows us to suggest suffering additional losses by crawling towards 0.6790 level soon, followed by reaching the additional support 0.6745 that forms the next main target for the upcoming trades.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/cadchf.png

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6880 and 0.6790.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

GBPUSD Resumes the Decline

The GBPUSD pair bounced bearishly after testing the bearish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, to resume the expected bearish track on the intraday basis, which its next target located at 1.1940. The EMA50 supports the expected bearish trend, noting that the current decline is considered as bearish correction for the rise measured from 1.0297 to 1.2443, and breaking the targeted level will open the way to achieve additional declines that reach 1.1625 areas.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/gbpusd_3.png

The EMA50 forms negative pressure that supports the continuation of the bearish trend domination in the upcoming sessions, and the price needs to get negative motive that assists to rally towards achieving the waited targets. Therefore, we expect to witness more decline on the intraday and short term basis, noting that breaching 1.2140 will stop the bearish trend and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1940 support and 1.2110 resistance.

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EURUSD Approaches the Target

The EURUSD pair resumed its negative trading to move away from 1.0745 level, as it falls under continuous negative pressure coming by the EMA50, to approach our waited target at 1.0635, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions. Surpassing the mentioned level will push the price to achieve more decline and head towards 1.0515 as a next main target, while the price might witness some temporary sideways fluctuation affected by stochastic positivity until getting negative motive that assists to resume the negative trades to achieve the mentioned target.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurusd_7.png

On the other hand, we notice that the price completes forming negative pattern that adds more confirmation to the continuation of the expected bearish wave, which has negative targets that surpass 1.0515 to reach 1.0400 areas. Therefore, we will continue suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaching 1.0745 will stop the negative scenario and lead the price to start new recovery attempts on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0575 support and 1.0745 resistance.

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Gold Price Awaits more Decline

Gold price settles below the broken support of the bearish flag pattern, to keep the negative effect of this pattern active, waiting to resume the bearish bias to head towards our main expected target at 1828.70. On the other hand, the price form new negative pattern that we expect to cause additional declines that surpass the mentioned level to head towards 1788.20 areas on the near term basis.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/gold_10.png

Therefore, we expect to witness more bearish bias on the intraday and short term basis, taking into consideration that breaching 1878.8 will stop the suggested decline and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1840 support and 1875 resistance.

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Crude Oil Completes Positive Pattern

Crude oil price approached the positive target mentioned in our last report at 80.40, showing some bearish bias by today’s open to test the support base formed at 78.90 after breaching it previously, and consolidating above this level is considered as the first condition to continue the bullish wave on the intraday basis. By taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming inverted head and shoulders’ pattern that surpasses 80.40 to reach 81.60 followed by 84.25 areas, to continue suggesting the bullish trend for the upcoming period.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/oil_4.png

The EMA50 provides the positive support to the price, to reinforce the continuation of the expected bullish trend, while stochastic might cause some sideways fluctuation and temporary negative trades before resuming the expected rise. Therefore, we expect to witness more rise in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaking 78.90 followed by 78.30 levels will stop the positive scenario and push the price to turn to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 77.50 support and 81.30 resistance.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

BTCUSD - The potential of a downward correction does not look exhausted

The reason for the decline was the combination of two main negative factors – signals about the possibility of maintaining a tight monetary policy in the USA for a long time and a series of investigations by American regulators against cryptocurrency companies. Recall that last week was rich in comments from leading officials of the US Fed, who agreed that it is necessary to continue raising the interest rate until the labor market can cool down, and the prerequisites for further inflation growth will not be eliminated. In this scenario, the US currency will continue to receive support against alternative assets, including digital ones.

At the same time, the American authorities began to pay more and more attention to the digital market. The bankruptcy of FTX caused officials to want to exclude the recurrence of such incidents and provide additional protection for investor funds, which resulted in a series of inspections and investigations against cryptocurrency companies. So, last week it became known that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused the Kraken digital exchange of offering and selling an unregistered staking program to customers. The platform did not admit its guilt, but made a deal with the regulator, terminating its offer and paying a fine of 30.0M dollars. The head of the SEC, Gary Gensler, has already stated that cryptocurrency exchanges should pay attention to the situation with Kraken, and this made experts fear a complete ban on staking for retail investors in the USA. Thus, the next target of the SEC may be the Coinbase Earn offer. We also note reports from Bloomberg that the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) has initiated an investigation into the activities of Paxos Trust Company, which is the issuer of USDP and BUSD stablecoins. The details of the case are still unknown, but it has already caused the suspension of the development of its own stable token by the payment giant PayPal Holdings Inc., which collaborated with Paxos Trust Company.

https://i.ibb.co/mz0YD1B/btc.png

Technically, the price has recouped some of the losses and is now at 21800, but the resumption of serious growth will be possible only if quotes consolidate above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (22900). In this case, the growth targets will be the levels of 25000 (Murray level [8/8]) and 26250 (Murray level [+1/8]). A breakdown of 21250 (Murray level [5/8], Fibo retracement 61.8%) will give the prospect of continuing the decline to the area of 20000 (Murray level [4/8], Fibo retracement 50.0%) and 18750 (Murray level [3/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards, the MACD histogram is preparing to move into the negative zone, and the Stochastic may leave the oversold zone.

Resistance levels: 22900, 25000, 26250 | Support levels: 21250, 20000, 18750

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The NZDUSD pair trades positively to test the key resistance 0.6340, reminding you that consolidating below this level is required to continue the expected negative scenario, which its targets begin by breaking 0.6290 to confirm opening the way to head towards 0.6210 followed by 0.6140 levels.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/nzdusd_3.png

On the other hand, breaching 0.6340 will push the price to build new bullish wave that its targets begin by testing 0.6390 areas and extend to 0.6490. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6240 support and 0.6350 resistance.

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EURGBP is Forced to Decline

The EURGBP price suffered strong negative pressures, which forces it to delay the bullish attack by reaching the extra support at 0.8875 to notice forming some of the negative waves by reaching 0.8825.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurgbp_2.png

in spite of the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels but the continuation of providing negative closes below the broken support confirms its surrender to the bearish correctional bias domination, to expect reaching 0.8805 and surpassing this obstacle might extend the losses towards 0.8730, to face the moving average 55.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8865 and 0.8805.

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