GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair trades with clear positivity to start attacking 1.2190 level, to hint the attempt to return to rise and stop the bearish correction that dominated the recent trades, and we prefer to stay neutral until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level followed by detecting its next destination clearly.

Note that confirming the beach will push the price to achieve gains that start at 1.2300 and extend to 1.2440, while consolidating below it will press on the price to decline again and test 1.1940 level as a first main station. The expected trading range for today is between 1.2100 support and 1.2250 resistance.

USDCHF - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9455 – 0.9600. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9140.

Chart of the Day - GBPJPY

UK inflation data for January was released today at 7:00 am GMT. Release showed a bigger slowdown in price growth than expected, with headline CPI gauge moving down from 10.5 to 10.1% YoY (exp. 10.3% YoY). Core gauge dropped from 6.3 to 5.8% YoY (exp. 6.2% YoY). Unsurprisingly, lower inflation reading was taken as dovish with investors increasing bearish BoE bets. This, in turn, triggered a pull back on GBP market.

Taking a look at GBPJPY chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair has managed to climb above the resistance zone ranging below 38.2% retracement of the downward move launched in October 2022 recently but this breakout was short-lived. Pair pulled back below it this morning but has bounced off the daily lows and it looks like another attempt to break above 38.2% retracement may be on the cards. However, if bulls fail and bears regain control, a deeper correction may be on the cards. In such a scenario, 156.76 zones will be a key support to watch. However, 23.6% retracement in the 159.30 area may also provide some support given that it saw numerous price reactions over the past 2 months.

AUDUSD consolidates below the resistance

The AUDUSD pair attempted to return to the main bullish channel but it consolidated below the resistance line formed at 0.7000 barrier, to start today with bearish bias and approach the key support 0.6925, waiting to break this level to confirm the continuation of the correctional bearish wave and head towards our negative targets that start at 0.6855 and extend to 0.6780.

The EMA50 forms negative pressure against the price to support the expectations to decline, besides stochastic that provides negative signals on the four hours’ time frame. Therefore, we are waiting for more expected decline in the upcoming sessions conditioned by the price stability below 0.7000. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6870 support and 0.7000 resistance

USDCHF Technical Analysis

The USDCHF pair provided new positive trades to test the key resistance 0.9250, showing bearish bias now to press on the EMA50, waiting to surpass this barrier to confirm the continuation of the expected bearish trend on the intraday basis, which its next targets located at 0.9120 followed by 0.9060.

Stochastic provides negative signals that we are waiting to support the continuation of the bearish bias in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that breaching 0.9250 will push the price to achieve additional gains and visit 0.9315 before detecting the next destination clearly.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Crude oil price bounced upwards clearly after the negative attempts that it witnessed yesterday, as it kept its stability above 78.00, to surpass 78.90 level and settles above it now, which leads the price to resume the bullish bias, affected by the inverted head and shoulders’ pattern, which has positive targets that start at 81.60 and extend to 84.25.

Therefore, the bullish trend will be expected for the upcoming sessions, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, being aware that breaking 78.00 will cancel the mentioned positive formation and press on the price to turn to decline, to head towards visiting 75.65 areas mainly.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

The USDJPY pair breached 133.30 level clearly and closed the daily candlestick above it, to open the way to continue the rise on the intraday and short term basis, to head towards achieving positive targets that start at 134.70 and extend to 135.70.

Therefore, we are waiting for more rise in the upcoming sessions, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, noting that stochastic current negativity might cause some sideways fluctuation before resuming the expected bullish bias. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 133.30 will stop the positive scenario and press on the price to turn to decline.

Tesla's 2023 Recall of Full Self-Driving Targets a 'Fundamental' Flaw

More than 360,000 vehicles will receive an over-the-air update after the US government said that Autopilot can be dangerous in some driving situations.

NZDUSD

> Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher at the beginning of a new week. Nikkei and S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.1% higher, Kospi added 0.2% and Nifty 50 dropped 0.1%. Indices from China traded up to 2% higher.
> DAX futures point to a higher opening of the European cash session today.
> US index futures trade little change compared to Friday's cash closing prices.
> US and Canadian traders are off for holidays today so liquidity conditions in the afternoon may be thinner.
> US Secretary of State Blinken said that US has information suggesting that China is considering providing Russia with ammunition and lethal weapons for war in Ukraine.
> Bloomberg reports that meeting between Blinken and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi over the weekend was rocky and far from encouraging.
> People's Bank of China left 1- and 5-year prime lending rates unchanged at 3.65 and 4.30%, respectively. Decision was in-line with expectations.
> According to Reuters report, People's Bank of China has reportedly asked domestic bank to slow issuance of loans this month.
> North Korea fired two ballistic missiles today. UN Security Council will convene at 8:00 pm GMT today to discuss the situation.
> Cryptocurrencies are trading mixed today with major coins experiencing rather small moves. Bitcoin drops 0.2%, Ethereum trades 0.3% higher and Dogecoin adds 0.4%.
> Energy commodities trade mixed - oil gains 0.8-0.9% while natural gas pulls back around 2%.
> Precious metals benefit from USD weakening at the beginning of a new week - gold and silver gain around 0.1% each while platinum adds almost 0.5%.
> AUD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while CHF, EUR and USD lag the most.

NZDUSD bounced off the 0.62 support zone last week but failed to launch a major recovery move. There is a lot of uncertainty around NZD as RBNZ is set to announce rate decision this week (Wednesday, 1:00 am GMT) and some see a chance for rate hike cycle pause amid recent floods and cyclone hit.

GBPUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward first wave of the higher level (1) formed, within which the wave 5 of (1) ended. Now, a downward correction is developing as the second wave (2), within which the wave of the lower level A of (2) has formed.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the wave B of (2), the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.1400 – 1.1155. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2437.

FTSE 100 - British stock market continues to rise

The British stock market continues its upward movement supported by corporate reporting, as well as by a positive macroeconomic background. According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), Retail Sales rose 0.5% in January after falling 1.2% a month earlier, while the annual rate slowed the decline from -6.1% to -5.1%. In turn, the Core Retail Sales Index on a monthly basis was 0.4% after -1.4% in December, while the annual rate was -5.3% after -6.5% a month earlier.

The day before, financial conglomerate Standard Chartered Plc. published its results: revenue was 3.47 billion pounds, after 4.32 billion pounds in the previous quarter, and earnings per share amounted to 0.039 pounds, significantly less than 0.33 pounds, recorded in the previous period. In turn, the consulting company Relx Plc. reported earnings of 4.58 billion pounds, beating analysts' estimates of 4.47 billion pounds, and earnings per share of 0.45 pounds, up from 0.39 pounds in the previous quarter.

On the daily chart, the index quotes continue their corrective growth, rising in the direction of the resistance line, and the technical indicators are holding a buy signal.

Support levels: 7925, 7714 | Resistance levels: 8055, 8250

AUDUSD Approaches Major Resistance

The Australian dollar is the best performing G10 currency today as rising copper prices seem to support the resources-linked currencies amid subdued USD demand. AUDUSD bounced off the lowest level since January 6 touched on Friday and returned above 0.6900 level, however hawkish FED and simmering tensions between US and China may limit the upside movement. Currently the pair is approaching local resistance at 0.6925, which is marked with previous price reactions, 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last upward wave and 50 SMA (green line). Break higher would pave a way towards the next resistance at 0.6980, however if sellers manage to regain control and halt advances, then another downward impulse towards  support at 0.6870 may be launched. Aussie may experience increased volatility in the evening and the coming Asian session, during the releases of flash PMI for February and RBA minutes.

One can observe a significant weakness of the US dollar, despite heightened geopolitical tensions.