New Year on Wall Street: a poll from Bloomberg

Dear clients,
Bloomberg conducted a survey among investment firms, including BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Asset Management and other major players, regarding the outlook for the market for next year. The mood is generally positive: with the expectation that inflation has peaked, and the Fed will start easing its monetary policy, 71% of respondents believe in stock growth. They are expect an average rise of 10%.

There are also talks about renewed interest in the Chinese market, recovering from the pandemic and the IT industry, which has suffered due to interest rates. Here, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet are considered the most promising.

The main fear of the coming year being considered a possible stagflation: 48% of investors are worried about high inflation, 45% about a serious recession. Experts also point to the likelihood of a weak start for the stock market and full growth only in the second half of the year.

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Boosting rates. How did the market react to the Fed's decision

The US Federal Reserve has announced another rate hike. As predicted, the growth amounted to 50 basis points. The previous value, put forward 4 times in a row, is 75 points.

According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the rate at 2% inflation remains unchanged. Reducing rates is possible only with confidence in a steady decline in inflation.

American indices reacted negatively to the continuing high rate. Declines are seen in the Dow Jones, S&P500 and NASDAQ. Many experts see a recession in the US economy as the most likely scenario. A further increase in the rate will contribute to the exit from risky assets.

At the same time, analysts say that the market does not believe in the Fed's intentions to hold the bar and counts on a more favorable scenario. Investors are betting on a February's advance being as high as 25 basis points when officials are talking about a possible 75. The FedWatch tool shows the probability of seeing a rate of 4.5-4.75% — 62%, while before the press conference there was a value of 58.1%

No bottom in sight: the largest drawdown of Tesla shares

Dear clients,

Shares of Tesla Inc. trading at the lowest levels on at least one measure, the tech giant is facing a slew of challenges, from falling demand in China to investor worries about priorities of the CEO, Elon Musk.

The stock is now trading at its lowest level since the IPO, according to the data. Among the reasons are a drop in demand in China, a cuts of production in Shanghai, and Musk's acquisition of the social network Twitter. Analysts say that if the issues are not resolved, then Tesla shares could fall to $150 before investors are interested again.

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Meet the '23 with 14th! iPhone 14 Plus raffle from FreshForex

The New Year is right on our doorsteps, and with it the festive mood, the holiday atmosphere that fills everything around. And to make this time even more special, we have prepared not one nor two gifts: we'll giveaway 200 iPhones of the 14th model!

Entering the raffle is extremely easy, in the period from 22.12.2022 to 19.01.2023:

1. Make a deposit from $202;

2. Close transactions with a volume of 3 lots or more;

3. Share the draw on your social networks.

In addition, a prize pool of $1,000 will be shared among the 10 participants with the most likes under the repost.

Winners will be randomly selected by January 23rd and will receive a notification to clarify the details*.

Participate, trade, share and may the New Year's miracle smiles upon you.

*If it is impossible to send the prize to the Client's address, or at the written request of the Client, the Company reserves the right to credit the face value of the gift to the Client's trading account in US dollars.

One-two-three: 123% drawdown bonus!

Dear clients,

Due to the upcoming celebrations, FreshForex has a special holiday offer for you. Until January 20, make a deposit from $101 and get a 123% drawdown bonus to your account.

Support your account during a drawdown or increase your trading volume and let this year end with a profit, and the next one begin with it!

We wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Market's Number One

Dear clients,

Tesla has overtaken Apple as the most popular stock among retail investors in 2022, according to research firm Vanda. A large decline in the price of the electric car maker led to a surge in acquisitions.

Cumulative net retail purchases of Tesla shares are up 424% to $15.41 billion this year from $2.94 billion in 2021. That's higher than Apple's $15.21 billion, up 18% from $12.85 billion in 2021.

Tesla continues to maintain a fairly broad reach, with shares accounting for about 11% of the average retail portfolio. Investment in Tesla dwindled when the company did a 3-for-1 stock split in August, but it has since outperformed the iPhone maker.

Elon Musk's actions as CEO of Twitter damaged the stock quite a bit. Tesla shares are approaching a 60% drop in 2022 with their worst performance since their 2010 listing. YTD losses outpace the S&P 500's 18% and Nasdaq 100's 31% decline. In turn, Apple shares lost 23% in a year.

According to experts, the situation may change after Musk transfers leadership of the social network and refocuses on the company.

In general, Tesla, Apple and other tech giants have suffered this year due to a sharp rise in borrowing costs. The Fed continues to raise interest rates and investors worry about a looming recession.

Back to the Future. Tesla shares at the level of 2020

Dear clients,

Decline in Tesla Inc. accelerated on Tuesday, continuing their longest black streak since 2018. The announcement of a possible temporary shutdown of production in China due to new outbreaks of the disease raised doubts about the risks of demand.

Shares of Elon Musk's company tumbled down 11% to $109.10, the seventh consecutive drop and the sharpest one-day drop since April.

The news of the Shanghai production cuts comes on the heels of a report that Tesla is offering American consumers a $7,500 discount to ship two of its highest-volume models before the end of the year, adding to fears of declining demand. For Tesla, whose value depends on its growth prospects, these concerns represent a significant risk.

The hope that Tesla will become a leading company in an EV-dominated future led to an impressive eightfold rally in the stock in 2020, earning its place in the S&P 500 and at one point making it the fifth most valuable stock of the group.

In this year however, the manufacturer lost about $720 billion in shareholder value. The crash is one of the biggest drivers behind the S&P 500's decline in 2022 after Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc.

However, the overall analyst stance on Tesla remains bullish, with the highest share of buy or equivalent ratings since early 2015. In their opinion, despite stock performance, Tesla's innovation curve is accelerating, in stark contrast to other big tech companies whose product updates seem stagnant at best.

A Rough Year

Dear clients,

Asian equities rallied while European and US stock futures fluctuated on the final trading day of a rough year for financial markets, with stocks and bonds posting their worst annual gains in more than a decade.

Stock benchmarks in Japan, Australia and China strengthened as S&P 500 contracts faltered, shading the best day this month for the index on Thursday, when it jumped 1.7%. The dollar rebounded from the previous session's decline, with Treasury yields rising and the yen rising as the Bank of Japan announced a third day of unplanned bond buying.

Uncertain direction is undermining hopes for a strong rally in late 2022, a year in which inflation has reasserted itself, wiping out a fifth of global equities in the worst performance since the financial crisis. Few regions have escaped the effects of Asian equities falling more than 19% this year. Bonds lost 16% in value, the biggest drop for a single leading measure since at least 1990, as central banks sought to slow consumer price growth by raising interest rates around the world.

Nasdaq 100 futures also fell sharply after the benchmark index jumped 2.5% on Thursday. The index has lost a third of its value this year as tech stocks have been among the most vulnerable to rising rates.

Concerns about the global implications of a rise in Covid-19 cases in China eased in part when Italy said it had found no new strains of the virus in recent arrivals from China. Italy and the US this week introduced testing requirements for air passengers arriving from China as a wave of infection swept through the world's most populous country.

At the same time, oil rose after a three-day decline due to concerns about increased inventories of raw materials and a possible decrease in demand from China, as a major importer.

Analysts are cautious about predictions, waiting for the next year to begin. Central banks fight against inflation and the resumption of trade in China are among the main benchmarks.

Weekly Outlook: Natural Gas, Brent Oil

Dear clients,

Entering midwinter with gas prices at a 2-year low, whie oil is keeping steady growth. This week we'll be looking at these instruments, their positions now and further down the line.

Join us on January 18 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

Trading Signals: Bank of Japan Decision on Interest Rates

Dear clients,

January 18 is expected to announce the interest rate of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan on short-term interest rates. The decision to set interest rates depends mainly on the outlook for growth and inflation.

What is the expected result, our expert says:

The Japanese Central Bank will keep the interest rate at the current level, but may signal to traders about the need to increase rates in the future due to rising inflation, which will lead to the strengthening of the Japanese yen against most competitors. On Wednesday, consider selling AUDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY positions.

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