EUR/USD. November 19, 2020 – Euro shows decline

At the end of yesterday's session, the EUR/USD pair weakened to the level of 1.1810. The current quote for the pair is 1.1835.

The drivers of the decline were the correction of stock indices and gold, which fell in price after the news from Pfizer. The pharmaceutical company said the new COVID-19 vaccine is 95% effective, up from the previously announced 90%. And gold, as a rule, correlates positively with the European currency, therefore, the decline in the precious metal caused a correction in EUR/USD.

The EU summit on the fight against coronavirus kicks off today. Also on the agenda is the issue of the EU budget plan, which was previously blocked by Hungary and Poland. In the evening, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde will speak.

In the US, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published. It is expected that the number of initial applications may be reduced from 709 thousand to 685 thousand. And the number of repeated requests should decrease from 6,786 thousand to 6,250 thousand. Also of interest will be the publication of the index of manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia Federal reserve for November and statistics on second-home sales in October.

EUR/USD. November 23, 2020 – Euro reached the level 1.1900

EUR/USD maintains upward momentum, approaching the 1.1900 level. The current quote for the asset is 1.1890.

Emotions after the presidential elections in the United States have gradually subsided and now all the attention of the markets is shifting to negotiations in Congress on a new stimulus package for the American economy. Moreover, support for risky assets at the moment is provided by news on the vaccine. The UK is expected to approve a vaccine from Pfizer this week.

Friday's statistics from the euro area showed that consumer confidence in November deteriorated in line with forecasts: to -18.0 points against the October value of -16.0. For the European Union, the corresponding indicator fell in November to -19.0 points from the previous -16.5. The data is not very positive, but it was quite expected.

Today we should pay attention to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany: the indicator rose to the level of 57.9 points, which is better than the forecast of 56.5. Activity in the service sector fell slightly short of the forecast and amounted to 46.2. The composite index of business activity for the entire eurozone came out worse than expected: 45.1 points against expectations of 45.8. However, these data did not prevent the euro from continuing to strengthen.

In the evening hours, the USA will present similar data. However, these data are unlikely to support the dollar, as experts predict a decline in absolutely all business activity indices. Thus, the weakening of the dollar will continue throughout the day.

Brent. November 25, 2020 – Oil continues to renew highs

The oil market continues to grow, hitting multi-month highs. Brent is currently quoted at $48.50 per barrel.

Prices are supported by hopes for improved economic outlook and increased demand for hydrocarbons. Pharmaceutical companies continue to share positive news of the success of the Covid vaccines, boosting hopes for a fast global recovery and resumption of international travel.

Additional support for oil was also provided by the results of the recent US presidential election, which was won by the representative of the Democratic Party, Joe Biden. The political uncertainty surrounding the elections has significantly decreased, which has given strength to risky assets, which traditionally include oil.

EUR/USD. November 25, 2020 – Euro has renewed its maximum in early September

On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1930, hitting the high of early September. The European currency is supported by hopes that the coronavirus pandemic will be defeated in the near future. Markets are in anticipation of the imminent production of the Covid vaccine and the recovery of the global economy.

At the same time, the pressure on the dollar came from a weaker than expected value of the US consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. In November, the indicator fell to 96.1 points against the forecast of 97.7 and the previous value of 100.9 points. The current value has become the lowest in the last three months. Such data indicate that the stability of the labor market and the general state of the economy are still far from ideal.

From such data, it can also be concluded that retail sales in December-January will be weaker than forecasts (simply due to less optimism of buyers).

An additional influence on the dynamics of the pair is provided by the news about the readiness of the administration of US President Donald Trump to begin the process of transferring power to Joe Biden.

Today you should pay attention to the block of statistics from the US: GDP for the III quarter, the volume of orders for durable goods in October, the balance of foreign trade in goods for October and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in October.

Brent. November 27, 2020 – Oil is correcting after an upward rally

Yesterday Brent began to decline, interrupting the upward rally. Prices failed to hold on to the reached maximum near $49 per barrel and retreated to $47.45. The current quotation is $48.40 per barrel.

Most likely, the driver of the decline was the news that Venezuela, despite the US sanctions, resumed oil supplies to China. This once again caused investors to worry about a possible oversupply of oil.

The Venezuelan state-owned company PdVSA signed a contract with China to resume oil supplies in August this year. And after the publication of the results of the US presidential election, Venezuela apparently decided to ignore Trump's sanctions.

Today is a quiet trading day as the United States continues to celebrate Thanksgiving. Brent will fluctuate weakly around $48.50 a barrel.

EUR/USD. November 27, 2020 – Euro is trading above 1.1900

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair resumed its growth: the current quotation of the asset is 1.1920. Thanksgiving weekend continues in the US, so the dynamics of trading today is rather sluggish.

The euro is strengthening, despite weak data from Germany, published yesterday. The consumer climate index in Germany from the GfK institute for December fell to -6.7 points from -3.1 earlier. This is even worse than predicted, suggesting that consumer sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic.

The index of economic expectations fell to -0.2 points from the previous 7.3, which was the worst value since May this year.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty and the EUR/USD pair will continue to fluctuate slightly above the 1.19 level.

GBP/USD. November 01, 2020 – The pound is confidently approaching the level of 1.3300

The British currency continues to show a decline from the 1.3400 highs area. The current quote for the pair is 1.3315.

Investors are still awaiting progress in the Brexit negotiations. Earlier, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, noted that the fate of the trade agreement will be decided this week, while the EU is ready to exit without a deal with Great Britain.

Yesterday, the dynamics of the pound was also affected by economic reports: the volume of consumer lending in October fell by 0.6 billion pounds, but the total number of approved applications increased from 91.454 to 97.5 thousand.

Today we should pay attention to the November house price index from Nationwide and the PMI of the manufacturing sector in the UK. Business activity in the country remained at 55.6 points, while analysts predicted the figure at 55.2. In the US, the manufacturing PMI will also be published and Jerome Powell will speak.

EUR/USD. December 3, 2020 – Euro updated its April 2018 high

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair continue to update their highs: the current price of the euro is 1.2125. The last time the couple was at such heights at the end of April 2018.

The euro is being supported by investors' hopes that the US authorities are about to start supporting the economy. After the Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress agreed on the size of the fiscal stimulus program in the amount of $ 908 billion, the markets returned to the hope that support will be provided later this year.

An additional «bearish» factor for the greenback is rumors that the Fed will start a «twist» operation in December with the purchase of long-term bonds. In addition, yesterday's data on the labor market from ADP also disappointed investors: statistics showed the worst dynamics since July. It is reported that employment in the private sector will grow by only 307 thousand, which is worse than the forecast of 433 thousand and last month's figure of 404 thousand.

The RSI indicator has leveled off to a horizontal position, which signals that the pair will adhere to flat dynamics during the day near the 1.2100 level.

AUD / USD. 07.12 | "Inside bar" above the level of 0.7400

On the daily chart, the Australian Dollar / US Dollar currency pair has formed an “inside bar” candlestick pattern based on the resistance level of 0.7400, giving a signal to buy.

At the end of last week, the AUD / USD price renewed its maximum since August 2018 at 0.7448, after which it went into a slight correction. In the medium term, I would like to see further development of the upward trend.

On the one hand, you can take a closer look at purchases according to the specified pattern, on the other hand, first wait for the development of a correction for a more convenient entry into the market. To make a decision, it makes sense to follow the price behavior and the formation of buy signals on lower timeframes. The next upside target is at 0.7500.

GBP / USD. December 09, 2020 - Pin bar "from the level of 1.3300

The GBP / USD currency pair formed a pin bar reversal pattern on the daily chart, rebounding from the 1.3300 resistance level.

The price of the GBP / USD trading instrument corrected to the line of the 21-day exponential moving average - EMA 21, after which it turned around, giving a buy signal. The pound sterling rose in price amid news of the success of the Brexit negotiations.

Most likely, the correction is over and the pair is ready to continue growing. The immediate upside target is 1.3500, which is in the area of highs since May 2018.

NZD / USD. December 11.2020 - Growth to highs

The New Zealand dollar / US dollar currency pair bounced off the round level of 0.7000 in yesterday's trading and formed an engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart, giving a buy signal.

The NZD / USD price rose to the 0.7100 resistance level, which is located in the area of the highs since April 2018. Buyers were unable to overcome the resistance at the indicated level, and today the pair went into a slight correction.

In the medium term, I would like to see continued growth along the upward trend. At the same time, it is better to enter new deals after breaking through the level of 0.7100, the next target is at 0.7200.

EUR/USD. December 15, 2020 – Euro is stable at 1.2170 area

The EUR/USD pair remains stable on Tuesday, trading in the highs just below the 1.2170 level.

Eurozone industrial output statistics for October released yesterday exceeded analysts' expectations, reflecting 2.1% m/m growth. The forecast implied an increase of 1.8%, while a month earlier the indicator rose by 0.1% m/m.

At the same time, the US dollar is under pressure from further actions of the American authorities in the issue of providing financial assistance to the economy. It is noted that a bipartisan incentive plan may be presented at the Congress level in the coming hours. We are talking about an amount of $908 billion, and the financing will most likely take place in 2 stages.

Today we should pay attention to the data on the volume of industrial production in the US for November, the degree of utilization of production facilities, import prices and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in New York. Experts predict that the rate of decline in American industry may slow down from -5.3% to -5.0%. And although the scale of the slowdown is extremely small, this data may be a reason for the dollar to strengthen by the end of the day.

Brent. December 17, 2020 – Oil has updated the maximum in 9 months after the US Federal Reserve  meeting

Brent crude hit a 9-month high on Thursday after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported declining US inventories last week. The current Brent price is $51.80 per barrel.

According to yesterday's statistics, crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 3.135 million barrels over the week (to 500.1 million barrels), which was better than the forecast for a decrease of 1.9 million.

Additional support to the asset is provided by some progress in the discussion of the issue of fiscal stimulus in the US Congress, as well as strong demand for oil in Asia. American lawmakers yesterday came close to an agreement on measures to support the economy in the amount of $900 billion.

At the same time, the US dollar was again under pressure. This time, the driver of the weakening of the currency was the results of yesterday's meeting of the US Federal Reserve: the regulator kept the rate at 0-0.25% per annum, while predicting that the rate would remain at this level until 2023.

GBP/USD. December 17, 2020 – Sterling has renewed its maximum in 2.5 years

The British currency continues to update maximum after maximum. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.3570. The last time such values were recorded in mid-May 2018.

The pound is growing amid weakness in the US dollar and strong business activity in the UK. Manufacturing activity in the country in November rose to 57.3 points after rising to 55.6 in October. At the same time, activity in the service sector was in the red zone.

Further support for the pound is provided by the progress in negotiations between the UK and the EU on the controversial Brexit issues. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that there is «a way to an agreement» and in fact, the deal could be concluded in the next few days. Moreover, Britain has signed a customs agreement with the United States, ensuring business continuity.

At the same time, the results of yesterday's meeting of the US Federal Reserve System exerted strong pressure on the dollar rate. The US regulator kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 0-0.25% and said it intends to maintain this range until conditions in the labor market reach peak employment levels and inflation approaches 2%.

Brent. December 21, 2020 – Oil starts to decline on news of Covid mutation

At the beginning of the week, Brent crude oil shows a decline from the $52.30 area to $49.25 per barrel. The current Brent price is $50.30 per barrel.

The decline was driven by the return to the market of fears regarding the mutation of the coronavirus in the UK. The British authorities said that a new strain has been identified in the country, the spread of which is several times higher than previous indicators. The same mutation of the Covid-19 virus has been found in the Netherlands, Denmark and Australia, according to WHO.

Oil market participants fear that a new mutation will call into question the economic recovery in the world and again negatively affect the demand for hydrocarbons.

Another factor in the weakening of the asset is the potential growth of the world oil supply, which may increase by 1 million barrels already in January due to additional supplies from OPEC+ countries, Libya, the United States and Iran.

EUR/USD. December 21, 2020 – Euro started a protracted correction

As predicted by last week's forecasts, the euro rate has moved to a retreat from the highs. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.2168. The dollar is on the side of a whole set of factors: here and the mutation of COVID-19 in the UK, and Brexit, and the vote in the US Congress on fiscal stimulus.

Despite the fact that lawmakers were able to agree on the volume of a new stimulus package in the United States, it is too early to talk about a complete solution to the issue. Now the bill must pass a vote in two chambers of the US Congress. And it is possible that a failure is possible here.

News from Britain that a new Covid-19 stamp has been opened, the spread of which is several times higher than previous indicators, exerted strong pressure on the euro. Epidemiologists fear that recently developed vaccines may be powerless against the new threat, and economists are already questioning economic growth next year.

In the UK, there is another factor of pressure on the pound and the euro – Brexit, the issues and disputes of which have not yet been resolved. The risks are high that instead of one big agreement, the parties will have to sign several different agreements.

Thus, the downward correction of the euro is only gaining momentum. The forecast for today assumes further strengthening of the dollar below the level of 1.2150.