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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. October 09, 2020 – Euro has returned to the highs of 1.1800

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its confident ascent and reached the 1.1800 level. Interest in risky assets returned to the markets after Donald Trump announced that Nancy Pelosi, the President of the House of Representatives of the Congress, was ready to conclude an agreement on an aid package that would support the airline industry. The aid also involves a one-time financial payment to the American unemployed in the amount of $1200.

However, the rally in the European currency may be restrained by alarming news from Europe, where the second wave of coronavirus is gaining momentum. For example, in Germany, the number of infected has increased sharply, which may again lead to the introduction of tough restrictions. In this case, the «bears» will be able to seize the initiative in the euro/dollar pair.

The economic calendar is practically empty today. Traders continue to win back yesterday's data on the US labor market, which were worse than expected. In particular, the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose to 840 thousand, while analysts expected an increase to 820 thousand.

GBP/USD. October 09, 2020 – Pound is moving in different directions at the end of the week

At the end of the week, the GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions in the area of 1.2950. Today, macroeconomic data from the UK was published, which somewhat disappointed investors, but did not have a visible impact on the dynamics of the pair.

In particular, GDP growth for the month decreased from 6.6% to 2.1%. Industrial output fell to 0.3%, while manufacturing output fell to 0.7%.

The current moderate strengthening of the sterling can be explained by the general weakness of the US dollar in the Forex market. Earlier the US released data on applications for unemployment benefits, which were worse than forecasts. Also, pressure on the dollar was exerted by yesterday's statements by representatives of world Central Banks that the US economic recovery is developing worse than expected, which clearly shows the Fed's shortcomings.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

USD/CAD. October 12, 2020 – Canadian dollar strengthens to 1.31

At the beginning of the week, the US dollar is weakening across the entire spectrum of the market, which allowed the USD/CAD pair to fall to the 1.3100 area. The current quote is 1.3135.

The weakening of the US dollar was fueled by news of the resumption of talks by US lawmakers on an additional fiscal stimulus package. Market participants expect that an agreement between Democrats and Republicans will be reached soon, which will weaken the national currency.

At the same time, the Canadian dollar is receiving support from high oil prices and strong macroeconomic statistics. For several days in a row, Brent oil quotes traded above $43 per barrel, and the growth of the oil market, as a rule, acts as a driver for the strengthening of commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar.

Moreover, last week a Canadian labor market report was published, according to which the number of employed people increased by 378.2 thousand in September, while the forecast of growth was only 156.6 thousand. Unemployment, respectively, fell from 10.2% to 9.0%. Today the economic calendar is almost empty, the pair will trade slightly above 1.31.

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EUR/USD. October 13, 2020 – Dollar grows in anticipation of inflation data

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair started to decline from the level of 1.1830. Today the downward trend continues, the current quote for the pair is 1.1780.

Pressure on risky assets came from yet another unsuccessful congressional negotiation on a new stimulus package. Nancy Pelosi has again rejected proposals from Donald Trump's team, which increases the likelihood that a decision on stimulus will not be made before the presidential elections on November 3.

Moreover, the growing gap in the rating of Joe Biden, the main opponent of Donald Trump in the presidential race, suggests that in the event of his (Biden’s) victory, the Democrats will constitute the majority in all power structures.

Today you should pay attention to the data on inflation in the United States, which should accelerate from 1.3% to 1.5%. In addition to the fact that the rise in inflation itself is a positive factor, it is also important that the indicators are close to the target levels of the Fed. Thus, in anticipation of these data, the pair will continue to decline to the 1.1770 area.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. October 14, 2020 – Euro declines amid negative external background

The euro is losing ground on Wednesday, dropping to 1.1715. Demand for the US dollar rose after news of another deadlock in the Brexit negotiations, a new lockdown in the UK and the suspension of coronavirus vaccine testing by two pharmaceutical companies.

At the same time, the dollar is supported by statistics from the United States: the inflation rate increased by 0.2%, increasing for the fourth month in a row. Today you should pay attention to the statistics on the US producer price index in September, as well as on the data on industrial production in the eurozone in August. The latest figures reflected only 0.7% MoM growth in European production, after rising 4.1% in July. Analysts had forecast growth of 0.8%.

However, the strengthening of the American currency is held back by the course of the election race in the United States. The position of Joe Biden, the main rival of the incumbent President Donald Trump, remains strong, and his army of fans is growing every day. Experts point out that Biden's victory in the elections could give the economy more impetus for recovery and create conditions for a rally in the stock and foreign exchange sectors.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

USD/CAD. October 15, 2020 – Dollar hits 1.32 amid spread of second wave of coronavirus

On Thursday, the USD/CAD pair continues to trade near local highs just above the 1.3200 level. The US dollar is gaining support amid rising market concerns about the spread of the second wave of coronavirus worldwide.

In addition, investors drew attention to the suspension of trials of the Covid-19 vaccine by two US pharmaceutical companies due to the appearance of side effects.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty. Only data on the US labor market from ADP and speeches by members of the Board of the Bank of Canada and its head Tim Lane can attract attention.

The United States will provide data on applications for unemployment benefits: it is expected that the number of initial applications can grow from 840 thousand to 845 thousand, and the number of repeated applications should decrease from 10 976 thousand to 10 500 thousand. This means that the duration of unemployment in the United States continues to decline, which is currently the most important factor for the growth of the dollar.

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EUR/USD. October 16, 2020 – The euro is growing slightly from the level of 1.17

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair is growing moderately from the level of 1.1700, the current quote is 1.1725. During the current week, the euro showed weakening, responding to a decrease in demand for risky assets due to political and economic uncertainty in the United States and the worsening epidemiological situation in Covid in the world.

Experts note that restrictive measures have been reintroduced in many European cities, since they recorded significant jumps in the incidence of coronavirus.

Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the complexity of the Brexit negotiations. London and Brussels have failed to move forward on the deal, exacerbating the risks of Britain leaving the EU without a deal.

However, today the euro has started to grow. The pressure on the dollar was exerted by yesterday's data on the labor market, which continues to experience difficulties for the second week in a row. The number of applications for unemployment benefits rose to 898 thousand against the previous level of 845 thousand. The forecast assumed a decrease to 810 thousand.

At the end of the day, the US is to release data on retail sales, which growth is expected to slow from 2.6% to 2.2%. You should also pay attention to the volume of industrial production in the States: experts predict a slowdown in the decline in production from -7.7% to -6.6%.

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Brent. October 19, 2020 – Oil fixed at comfortable levels

Brent oil prices have consolidated above $42 per barrel. The current quotation of the asset is $42.77.

Today, markets are focused on the meeting of the OPEC + ministerial monitoring committee. The parties to the agreement will meet to assess the state of the market, and it is unlikely that any decisions will be made regarding the supply. This will most likely happen at a meeting scheduled for November 30 – December 1.

One of the scenarios for the forthcoming report assumes that the oil market in 2021 will be characterized by weak demand and growing supply. For this reason, the participants in the energy pact can discuss easing the restrictions from January 1.

Thus, if a gradual increase in oil production by OPEC + countries against the backdrop of weak demand and an increase in production in Libya is questionable, the initiative on the oil market will finally go to buyers, which will allow Brent quotes to gain a foothold above $43.50 per barrel.

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EUR/USD. October 20, 2020 – Euro continues to rise above 1.18

The European currency continues to strengthen, following the dynamics of yesterday. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1805. Market participants were actively selling the dollar on expectations of an early agreement on fiscal stimulus in the United States. On Sunday, House speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that if a decision on the issue of incentives is not made within 48 hours, the deal will not take place.

The euro was further supported by the comments of Christine Lagarde. The head of the ECB noted that she considers it necessary to leave the volume of the economic recovery fund in the amount of 750 billion euros. However, the strengthening of the euro above 1.1850 is not yet considered, as the epidemiological situation in Europe remains extremely tense.

Today you should pay attention to the publication of data on construction in the United States. Experts predict an increase in the number of building permits issued from 1.476 million to 1.52 million.

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EUR/USD. October 21, 2020 – Euro hits one-month high

The Euro has managed to grow to the level of 1.1870 since the beginning of the week, but on Wednesday it started to decline to the area of 1.1840. The dollar was pressured by expectations of an early agreement on economic stimulus measures in the States: House speaker Nancy Pelosi yesterday forced politicians to speed up the process of discussing the aid package.

An additional factor that puts pressure on the US currency is the growing sympathy of US residents for Joe Biden during the election race in the States. And if Trump's main opponent wins the presidential election, a lot of money will be poured into the US economy, which is obviously not a positive factor for the dollar.

Yesterday, statistics on construction in the United States were published: the number of new home bookmarks for September increased to 1.42 million against the previous figure of 1.39 million. The number of new housing permits issued was 1.55 million after the August figure of 1.48 million. Such data provided support to the dollar, which suspended the Euro rally.

Today, the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, in the evening hours you should pay attention to the report on the Beige book in the United States.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. October 22, 2020 – Euro declines towards 1.1800

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair is declining moderately, continuing the dynamics of the previous day. The current quote for the asset is 1.1817. The macroeconomic calendar is practically empty today, all the market's attention is directed to what is happening in the US Congress.

A week and a half before the presidential election, the White House came close to concluding an agreement on a new stimulus package for the American economy. D. Trump said yesterday that he was ready to allocate $2.2 trillion to support the economic system, contrary to the intentions of his own Republican Party.

Thus, the fiscal support of the United States will definitely be carried out regardless of whether Trump or Biden takes the presidency in November.

Today we should pay attention to the publication of data on the consumer confidence index in the euro zone for October, where there may be a slight deterioration in the indicator from 13.9 points to 15 points. The US is to release September data on home sales in the secondary real estate market and statistics on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits. Experts predict a slight decrease in the indicator.

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USD / JPY. 23.10 | "Inside bar" below the level of 105.00

On Wednesday, the price of USD / JPY bounced from 105.50, after which it fell by almost 1000 points, the head and shoulders pattern worked out, reaching the previously indicated target at the resistance level of 104.50.

We have not managed to update the lows yet, however, in the medium term we would like to see further development of the downward trend. Trades based on the “inside bar” pattern are risky, as there is also a high probability of a rebound from a strong level. In the near future I expect to consolidate above 104.50 and retest this resistance.

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GBP/USD. October 27, 2020 – Pound sterling recovers moderately

The GBP/USD pair is moderately strengthening on Tuesday, recovering from yesterday's decline to 1.2990. The current sterling quote is 1.3037.

Investors reacted positively to the news of the extension of the Brexit negotiations even before Wednesday. If earlier the UK was already ready to leave the EU without a deal, now there are hopes that an agreement between London and Brussels will still be reached by the end of December.

Experts note that the new round of negotiations, which started on October 22, is proceeding in an optimistic manner, and at the moment the parties have managed to agree on more than 90% of the controversial issues.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty. Attention can only be attracted by data on orders for durable goods in the US for September, as well as statistics on the consumer confidence index. Orders should rise by 0.1%, while the second indicator should rise from 101.8 points to 102.5 points. If the forecasts come true, the dollar will start strengthening to the area below 1.30.

GBP/USD. October 26, 2020 – Pound recovers after last week's fall

GBP/USD resumed gains earlier in the week, climbing from 1.3000 to 1.3075. Last week, the pair moved mainly within the downtrend from the 1.3170 level.

All the attention of investors today is riveted to any news on Brexit. It became known over the weekend that London and Brussels have decided to extend the talks until Wednesday. Last week, the British authorities already announced their readiness to leave the EU without an agreement at all, if Brussels does not compromise. In response, the European Union stated its desire to continue negotiations and reach an agreement, but «not at any cost.»

Interesting statistics were released last Friday. Retail sales in the UK unexpectedly rose 1.6% against the forecast for growth of 0.5%. At the same time, the business activity indices in the country came out worse than forecasted: the total PMI fell from 55.7 to 52.9 points, while the activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 54.1 to 53.3 points.

Important statistics from Britain are not planned today. In the US, data on new home sales will be published in September. Sales are expected to decline from 4.8% to 2.8%, which will put pressure on the dollar in the evening hours.

EUR/USD. October 26, 2020 – The dollar strengthened to the level of 1.18

The EUR/USD pair has returned to the 1.18 level again, falling from the 1.1860 area. The euro was pressured by the data on the IFO business climate index in Germany in September: the indicator came out worse than forecast, falling to 92.7 points against expectations of a reduction to 93.0. Otherwise, today the economic calendar is practically empty, and all the attention of the market will be shifted from statistics to politics.

As you know, the US presidential elections will be held on November 3. All pre-election debates have already ended and it remains only to wait for the event itself. And depending on the results, the path of the country's development and its monetary policy will be diametrically opposite. At the end of the debate, Democratic challenger Joe Biden takes the lead in the race.

In the evening hours, you should pay attention to the sales of new homes in the United States in September. Sales are expected to decline from 4.8% to 2.8%, which could somewhat halt the dollar's strengthening today.

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EUR/USD. October 28, 2020 – Euro fell sharply to 1.1740

The EUR/USD pair began to decline sharply amid growing investor appetite for safe assets. The current quote for the pair is 1.1740.

The pressure on risky assets is exerted by the widespread development of the second wave of Covid-19 and the approaching date of the US presidential election (November 3). At the same time, the dollar was supported by yesterday's data on the volume of new orders for durable goods in the United States: in September, the indicator increased by 1.9% m/m after gaining 0.4% a month earlier. Analysts had forecast an increase of 0.5% m/m.

The indicator, excluding orders for transport and utility equipment, expanded 0.8% m/m after strengthening earlier by 1% m/m. The actual data exceeded the expectations of specialists twice.

The euro was directly pressured by rumors that Germany plans to introduce a two-week quarantine with a stop to everything except important social facilities. In France, they are discussing the strengthening of restrictive measures for a month, and in the UK, options for a second lockdown are on the agenda.

The economic calendar is empty for today, so the dynamics of the pair will continue to depend on the situation around the second wave of coronavirus and the expectations of tomorrow's ECB meeting.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. October 29, 2020 – Euro fell to 1.1700

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair demonstrates a steady decline to the level of 1.1700. The euro was pressured by news of additional restrictive measures in Germany and France. In France, a nationwide quarantine is introduced from October 30 to December 1, and in Germany – from November 2.

An additional driver of the weakening of the European currency was the news on Brexit. This week, there has been some progress in negotiations between the UK and the European Union, which has led to the strengthening of the EUR/GBP pair. This, in turn, put pressure on EUR/USD through the cross.

Today we should pay attention to the important meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the conference of Christine Lagarde. A softer rhetoric is expected from the regulator amid the threat of a repeated recession in the economy. In addition, the ECB may adjust its economic forecasts downward.

In the US, data will be published on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Their total number should decrease by 510 thousand. Moreover, a decrease is expected for both initial and repeated calls. Also, attention will be drawn to the report on US GDP for the III quarter and the index of unfinished sales in the real estate market in September.

USD/CAD. October 29, 2020 – The US dollar is growing steadily in tandem with the «Canadian»

The USD/CAD pair has been demonstrating confident strengthening in recent days. The current quote for the pair is 1.3340.

A meeting of the Board of the Bank of Canada took place yesterday, and the regulator, as expected, kept the key interest rate at 0.25%. In addition, it was decided to adjust the asset purchase program: now the bank will buy long-term bonds, which affect the rates on loans needed by households and businesses.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Maclem previously said that the central bank is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% for at least two years. These plans put pressure on the Canadian dollar.

An additional negative was brought by the decline in oil prices. Brent quotes fell to $38.30 a barrel for the first time since June 1. The driver of the decline was the data on oil reserves, which showed the strongest weekly growth since July, as well as the continued increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the world. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels.

Given the current news background, we can expect further growth in the USD/CAD quotes.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. October 30, 2020 – Euro continues to trade below 1.1700

At the end of the week, the euro continues to remain in the area of minimums below the level of 1.17. The current quote for the pair is 1.1670. The European currency was under pressure from the results of yesterday's meeting of the ECB.

The European regulator kept the monetary policy unchanged (rate at 0%), but did not rule out the likelihood of its easing already in December. Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the widespread withdrawal of investors from risky assets.

At the same time, the dollar was supported by strong data from the US. A preliminary estimate of GDP for the third quarter showed economic growth by 33.1% q/q, with a forecast of an increase of 31.0%. In the second quarter, the country's economy collapsed by 31.4%. In addition, the US recorded a 40.7% rise in consumer spending in the third quarter, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell from 791 thousand to 751 thousand this week.

Today, one should pay attention to the data on GDP of the eurozone: the indicator in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 12.7% q/q and decreased by 4.3% y/y, which turned out to be much better than forecasts (an increase of 9.4% q/q and a decrease of 7% y/y). This data will allow the euro to regain its losses somewhat.

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EUR/USD. November 2, 2020 – Euro has suspended its decline

November began for the euro with weakening to the level of 1.1615. There are enough pressure factors on the European currency. Here and a decrease in appetite for risky assets, and lockdowns in Germany and France, and the presidential elections in the United States. Additional pressure on the euro rate is exerted by the dollar's popularity as a safe asset.

Tomorrow will be the most significant event of the year – the US presidential election. Strong market volatility is likely from Tuesday to Thursday, as the future monetary policy of the United States is highly dependent on the new figure in the presidency.

In Germany, from today, a soft lockdown is being introduced, which includes restrictive measures to reduce the spread of coronavirus in Europe. France also intends to introduce measures in the coming days. However, both the German and French economies look rather weak and may not withstand the second lockdown.

Statistics on PMIs in the Eurozone and Germany were released today. Both indicators came out better than expected, which gave the euro some support and allowed it to rise to 1.1650.

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Brent. November 3, 2020 – Oil rises on US dollar weakness

On Tuesday, Brent quotes are growing, reaching $40 per barrel. Prices are supported by the general weakening of the US dollar ahead of today's US presidential elections.

However, despite the upward momentum, market participants fear that a decrease in demand due to an intensification of the COVID wave amid growing supply will lead to oversupply and a collapse in prices, as was the case in the I-II quarter of this year.

In addition, the growth in oil production in the world continues to act as a factor for the weakening of Brent. The number of operating oil platforms in the US has reached its highest level since May this year, according to a Baker Hughes report. Moreover, in Libya, oil production reached 800 thousand barrels per day, and the figure could reach 1.3 million barrels by early next year.

In such conditions, it will be quite difficult for OPEC+ to maintain a balance in the oil market. The next meeting of the organization is scheduled for the end of November, while the risks of oversupply remain the main driving force of the market.

EUR/USD. November 3, 2020 – Dollar weakens against euro in anticipation of presidential elections

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday are growing steadily, returning to the level of 1.1700. The current quote for the pair is 1.1715.

Today is a very big day for the US dollar as America chooses its new President. And the future policy and economy of the country will depend on who will take the place of the head of the White House. The results of the voting will become known only tomorrow, therefore, during the day, the markets will experience increased trading volatility.

It should be noted that in 2016, when Donald Trump won the presidential election, the euro appreciated by 270 pp. Trump has threatened to appeal the vote if he is defeated this year, putting pressure on the dollar amid political uncertainty.

The American currency is under pressure, even despite strong data on business activity in the US manufacturing sector. Yesterday the business activity index for October was published: the indicator strengthened and amounted to 53.4 points against the previous value of 53.2. Today you should pay attention to the data on the volume of industrial orders in September: growth is expected from 0.7% to 1%.

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GBP/USD. November 5, 2020 – Pound rises on general US dollar weakness

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is growing steadily, reaching the level of 1.3075. Today, a meeting of the Bank of England took place, following which the regulator kept the rate at 0.1%, and also announced the expansion of the purchase of government bonds by 150 billion pounds, bringing the total volume to 895 billion.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank has shared economic forecasts in the IV quarter: the regulator expects a decrease in indicators, since a four-week quarantine begins in the UK from today.

The US dollar against the pound sterling is weakening across the entire spectrum of the market after the publication of the interim results of the US presidential election. Joe Biden got 264 electoral votes and until the final victory he has to gain 6. At the same time, Donald Trump's team did not agree with such results and filed an application with the Georgia State Court to recount the voting results.

Despite the local growth caused by the weakness of the American currency, the general background for the pound remains negative. There are risks of uncertainty about Brexit, a nationwide quarantine, and weak economic indicators. The total business activity index in October fell from 52.3 to 52.1 points. The index of business activity in the service sector fell to 51.4 points.

EUR/USD. November 5, 2020 – Euro has reached the level of 1.18

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continues to grow steadily, approaching the 1.1800 level. Markets continue to await the outcome of the US presidential election. The results are still unknown, as the vote goes through the mail and the election committee has not yet collected all the votes.

According to preliminary data, Joe Biden collected 264 electoral votes and he lacks only 6 votes to complete victory. 214 boards voted for Trump. The team of the incumbent president has already filed lawsuits demanding a recount of the voting results in a number of states.

The current quote for the pair is 1.1795. Uncertainty regarding the summing up of the voting results may last until the end of the week, and only then the further direction of the pair will become known.

In addition to the election results, the meeting of the US Federal System and the subsequent comments of the regulator's representatives will be of interest. It is expected that until the passions around the elections subside and the White House does not decide on its further policy, the Fed will refrain from harsh statements and decisions. And under the current conditions, this can act as a positive factor for the dollar exchange rate. However, while the pair is growing steadily and during the day it can consolidate above the level of 1.18.

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EUR/USD. November 6, 2020 – Euro confidently moves towards 1.19

EUR/USD maintains its upward momentum, approaching the 1.1850 level. Markets continue to monitor the US presidential elections, and the vote count is still in progress. So far, 264 electors have voted for Joe Biden, while 214 have voted for Donald Trump.

Biden's headquarters have already announced their victory, but Trump considers himself «the winner by legal vote» and is demanding a recount in some states. Market participants expect that if Joe Biden wins, the Democrats will quickly approve a package of fiscal stimulus measures, which supports risky assets today.

During the day, you should pay attention to the publication of the US Department of Labor report on the state of the labor market. The unemployment rate may fall from 7.9% to 7.7%. In addition, another 510 thousand new jobs can be created. If the data is confirmed, the dollar will receive some support.

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EUR/USD. November 9, 2020 – Euro consolidates near the level of 1.19

The euro continues to strengthen against the dollar, close to the 1.1900 level. The US presidential election was won by Democratic representative Joe Biden, which put strong pressure on the dollar. The reason is that investors now expect more stimulus for the US economy, despite continuing divisions in Congress.

Last Friday, the United States presented a block of interesting economic statistics that went unnoticed amid the elections. In particular, the unemployment rate in the country in October fell to 6.9% against the forecast of 7.7%. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 638 thousand, while an increase of only 600 thousand was expected.

The only thing that turned out to be worse than expected was the increase in wages. The indicator on the average hourly wages in October increased by only 0.1% against the expectation of growth by 0.2%. In general, we can say that the US labor market still maintains a positive momentum.

The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1870. The RSI indicator moves horizontally, which signals the formation of a flat below the level of 1.19.

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Brent. November 10, 2020 – Oil shows strong upward momentum

On Tuesday, Brent crude oil continues to rise, following the dynamics of yesterday. The current quotation of the asset is $42.88 per barrel. Experts note that such an upward trend has become the best over the past 6 months.

The growth driver was the news from the pharmaceutical company Pfizer that the vaccine it has developed is capable of protecting in 90% of cases of COVID-19 infection. The company said that they plan to obtain permission to sell the new drug by the end of November.

A cure for the coronavirus could significantly revive and revitalize the tourism industry, which has driven oil prices up.

Additional support for Brent was provided by the comments of the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia on the readiness of OPEC + to postpone the decision to revise the restrictions on oil production. According to the latest data, the total production of OPEC + countries in October increased by 210 thousand barrels per day and reached 32.27 million barrels per day. The increase in oil production was mainly due to the restoration of work in the fields of Libya.

EUR/USD. November 10, 2020 – Euro declines after yesterday's highs

The EUR/USD pair is showing a correctional decline today after yesterday's rise to 1.1920. The current quote is 1.1775. Yesterday was full of news that contributed to increased volatility.

First, Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election offers hopes for improving and strengthening America's international relations. However, buyers began to fix longs on the announcement by the head of the US General Services Administration of the refusal to recognize Joe Biden's victory, which increased political uncertainty in the country.

On the other hand, investors were optimistic about news from pharmaceutical company Pfizer about the success of a new vaccine capable of preventing 90% of coronavirus infections.

At the same time, the European currency was under pressure from the previously published statistics from the eurozone. Sentix investor confidence index for November deteriorated to -10.0 points against the previous value of -8.3. The data, however, turned out to be better than expected, implying a decline to -15.0 points. Additional negativity was brought by the news that the EU decided to impose reciprocal customs duties on US goods in the amount of $ 4 billion.

Today during the day the pair will adhere to the flat dynamics in the 1.1800 area.

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EUR/USD. November 11, 2020 – Euro continues to weaken against the dollar

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair fluctuates weakly on both sides of the 1.1800 level, while the downward trend remains. Weak economic statistics from Germany put pressure on the euro: the ZEW economic sentiment index fell to 39.0 points, which was the lowest level since April this year. An additional negative is the worsening of the epidemiological situation in Europe.

At the same time, participants in the foreign exchange market are concerned about Donald Trump's attempts to annul the voting results in Michigan and Pennsylvania. And his further efforts in this direction will only increase the uncertainty in the United States and suppress the demand for risky assets.

Thus, the euro will continue to decline during the day, responding to the negative external background. The economic calendar is empty today, in the United States it is a day off in honor of the Veterans Day. Only in the evening will the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde be of interest.

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GBP/USD. November 12, 2020 – Pound falls on weak economic data

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continues to decline, following the dynamics of yesterday. The current quote for the asset is 1.3145.

Uncertainty around Brexit continues to exert pressure on the pound sterling. Under current agreements, the UK and the EU must agree on an initial draft of the deal by November 19. The final agreement of the contract should take place before the end of December 2020.

Despite the ongoing negotiations, there is still no draft agreement, so the risks of a «hard» Brexit (without a deal) are growing every day. In this case, Britain will leave the single market and common customs space.

A large block of statistics from the UK was published today, which also put pressure on the British currency rate, as all data turned out to be worse than forecasted.

GDP in the III quarter increased by 15.5% in comparison with the previous quarter, which turned out to be worse than the forecast. Experts had expected growth to 15.8%. However, this growth has been a record since 1955. Industrial production data for September showed an increase of 0.5%, while experts had expected an increase of 0.8%. Manufacturing production rose 0.2% in September after rising 0.7% in August.

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GBP/USD. November 16, 2020 – Pound shows high volatility in Brexit negotiations

The new week started with a weakening of the pound sterling to 1.3160 from 1.3240. The British currency is under pressure from news on Brexit and trade negotiations between London and Brussels.

A spokesman for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday that previous differences over equal terms of trade and fisheries remain in trade negotiations with the European Union. The politician noted that negotiations will resume this week. There is about a month and a half left until the end of the transition period, and the peak of tension in the negotiations will probably be in December.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty. Attention may be drawn to the speech of the representative of the Bank of England J. Haskell.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Brent. November 17, 2020 – Oil holds in September highs

Yesterday, Brent quotes managed to reach the level of $44.60 per barrel, which was the highest since mid-September. The current quotation of the asset is $43.77. Prices are being supported by improved market sentiment amid reports of a new coronavirus vaccine. It became known that Moderna achieved 94.5% efficiency in trials of its drug from Covid, which strengthened investors' hopes for a global economic recovery, as well as demand for hydrocarbons.

Additional support for Brent was provided by macroeconomic data from China: industrial production in October increased by 6.9% compared to the same period last year. Retail sales added 4.3% compared to October 2019.

OPEC+ plans to refrain from increasing production until the oil market returns to balance are also a factor in the growth of oil prices. On the eve of the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee announced plans to extend the current restrictions on production for another three months.

However, the risks for the oil market are still high. The rate of spread of coronavirus infection around the world continues to grow, and the likelihood of new lockdowns remains. Which, in turn, cloud the prospects for global economic growth.

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