Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 23, 2020

We are still expecting a final dip closer to our ideal target at 122.15 to complete wave 2/ and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave 3/ to above the former peak at 127.07. In the short-term, a minor triangle is developing as the penultimate wave and this should ultimate give away for the final dip to 122.15 to complete wave 2/.

Only a direct break above minor resistance at 123.42 wil indicate that wave 2/ already has completed while a break above resistance at 124.01 will confirm that wave 3/ is in motion.
R3: 124.40
R2: 124.01
R1: 123.66
Pivot: 123.30
S1: 122.87
S2: 122.53
S3: 122.15

Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 123.90 and we will buy+revers our short position to a long EUR-position at 123.25 or upon a break above 123.45

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Evening review on September 24, 2020

The EURUSD pair prospects possible decline.

The unemployment claims in the US for the long-term practically remain unchanged at 12.6 million. Note that there was a notable decrease of 700,000 just a week earlier.

Nevertheless, the euro continues to decline.
You may keep selling from 1.1735 with a stop at 1.1760.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 29, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro slightly increased on Monday amid rising risk appetite in the stock market and ahead of the first debate of presidential candidates Trump and Biden on Wednesday. Technically, the growth was reflected in consolidation at the target level of 1.1650. The observed consolidation is likely to continue today. The price must settle below the 1.1650 level in order for a significant downward movement to appear. The first target is 1.1550 (November 2017 low).

The price shows an intention to fall from the September 24 and 25 highs. It would be like forming a narrow consolidation, which in turn will act as a technical figure for the trend to continue, that is, a decline. The euro's consolidation growth may continue up to the MACD indicator line at 1.1712. We are waiting for the development of events, the main scenario is decreasing.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for USD/JPY on October 1, 2020

USD/JPY
USD/JPY fell by 18 points while investors were temporarily confused on Wednesday, stopping at the 110.0% Fibonacci level on the daily chart. The pair is planning to go up from this level during the Asian session. The Marlin oscillator is staying in the growth zone. We are waiting for the next branch of growth at the target of 106.00 - at the Fibonacci level of 100.0% and the MACD line coinciding with it.

The price is held by the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, the general trend is growing. The Marlin oscillator has been declining for a long time while the price increases, you can look at this as the indicator easing from the overbought zone before it grows further. We are waiting for the price to reach the designated target.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 5, 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Estonian central bank - Eesti Pank - has announced the launch of a research program to test how to build a digital currency infrastructure.

According to the statement, Eesti Pank will collaborate on the research project with technology companies SW7 Group and Guardtime. The initiative aims to test whether a blockchain-based keyless signature (KSI) solution can help create virtual currency.

It is worth adding that Estonia is already using blockchain and KSI technology in its e-government services. The bank's project will also address new payment solutions "that may be possible through the use of electronic identifiers and other Estonian e-government solutions."

The project will consist of several phases and will last approximately two years. The first phase will be to create a scalable, practical and secure platform that meets the requirements of CBDC. At the same time, it was emphasized that the platform is to operate quickly, securely and ensure privacy.

Rainer Olt, head of the bank's Payment Systems Department, said:

"As a small central bank, Eesti Pank carefully selects the development projects of the Eurozone central banks to which we can make a significant contribution. Over the years, Estonia has developed unique know-how in maintaining a secure, private and efficient eGovernment. Estonia's unique wealth of experience is a good impetus to launch the project with technology companies SW7 and Guardtime to explore [new] technological opportunities. "

The bank emphasized that it is constantly striving to develop its financial environment and payment system in order to keep up with the times and respond to the needs of citizens.

Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been slowly moving up towards the level of $10,679, which is the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. There is a change for the market to continue to move higher if the level of $10, 697 is clearly violated. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $10,890, which is the last swing high. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $10,586 and $10,547.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,471
WR2 - $11,178
WR1 - $10,858
Weekly Pivot - $10,602
WS1 - $10,300
WS2 - $10,024
WS3 - $9,715

Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 7, 2020

Crypto Industry News:
According to a recent SEC disclosure by the Greyscale Ethereum Trust, or ETHE, Ethereum's impending shift to proof-of-stake consensus is a risk that could have a "material adverse effect" on its stock.

ETHE has recently applied to the regulator to become a SEC reporting company. Such companies are required to discuss risk factors that may adversely affect their results in all quarterly and annual reports.

In one section, which aims to outline the potential threats to the fund's future, it was noted that upgrading to ETH 2.0 may cause some difficulties for investors:

"The digital asset network's consensus mechanism is an essential aspect of its source code, and any failure to properly implement such a change could have a significant negative impact on the ETH value."

The report mentions that the inability to properly implement these changes may result in a temporary or permanent bifurcation which could have a negative impact on ETHE's stock.

It seems that the upcoming modernization so far does not diminish investors' interest in the fund. On the contrary, the assets of the Trust it manages have grown exponentially over the past year, from $ 67 million to over $ 800 million at the time of publication.

Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair had failed to break through the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down and suddenly reversed all the previous gains. The local trend line support had been violated as well and the pair made a new local low seen at the level of $332.46. There was some Pin Bar candlestick made at the end of the move down, so a small bounce is possible up to the level of $345.20. If this local technical resistance is not clearly broken, then the down move should resume and head towards the next target seen at the level of $322.87 - $321.95.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $403.75
WR2 - $387.38
WR1 - $368.10
Weekly Pivot - $351.05
WS1 - $333.15
WS2 - $315.51
WS3 - $296.13

Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 9, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:
Despite the recent bounce from the upper channel line seen at the level of 1.2848, the GBP/USD pair keeps trading below the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.2979 - 1.3017. The bounce indicated some bullish pressure at this level and the upper channel line is being guarded strongly, but after some time we can see the momentum decreased and the Pound is trading horizontally. However, if the price will enter the old main channel zone, then the sell-off might accelerate, so the key technical support is again seen at the level of 1.2848. The next target for bulls after the bounce is seen at the level of 1.2979.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3265
WR2 - 1.3116
WR1 - 1.3034
Weekly Pivot - 1.2892
WS1 - 1.2811
WS2 - 1.2658
WS3 - 1.2571

Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

AUD/USD forecast for October 13, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar did not close the gap at the opening of the week, so the current decline of 65 points from Friday's close may only be a correction from the growth of the previous days. According to Monday's review, the possible growth will also have the character of a correction from the movement starting September 1 and may end before reaching any of the target levels even at the nearest 0.7270.

The Marlin oscillator went into a downward trend zone. Formally, this means that the price is moving towards the first target level of 0.7055, but let's look at the situation on a smaller chart.

On the H4 chart, there is currently no price fixing under the level of 0.7190. The next candle should open under this level to achieve this. Also, the price remains above the Kruzenshtern indicator line at 0.7143 and even above the balance indicator line, i.e. the observed decline occurs within the growing short-term trend. Only the Marlin oscillator reminds the price that it is time to finish with growth but is still weak.

So, for the development of a downward scenario in the short term up to two weeks, the price should be fixed under the Kruzenshtern line below 0.7143. In the case of a medium-term decline in the AUD/USD currency pair, the impact of the gap (especially insignificant) can be ignored, sometimes they are closed only after a few years.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 15, 2020

EUR/USD
The situation has not changed for the euro over the past day. Trading was weak on Wednesday, the price is also settling below the 1.1754 level. The Marlin oscillator moves along the border that separates the growth zone from the decline zone on the daily chart. Outwardly, the situation is neutral, but the price is developing below the red balance indicator line, which means consolidating in a dynamic downward trend. The 1.1650 target is dominant, the probability of reaching it is 65-70%.

The four-hour chart shows that yesterday's attempt to go beyond the area above the MACD line turned out to be weak, the price has already settled below it and is ready to continue its decline. The Marlin oscillator is growing in the downward trend zone, but this growth in structure is the indicator unloading before declining even deeper.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for October 19, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been seen moving lower at the beginning of the trading week. The last lower low was made at the level of 1.1688, just below the technical support seen at the level of 1.1696 and this is the next target for the bears. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1746. Despite the oversold conditions, the momentum remains weak and negative, which support the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1924
WR2 - 1.1873
WR1 - 1.1783
Weekly Pivot - 1.1733
WS1 - 1.1641
WS2 - 1.1593
WS3 - 1.1509

Trading Recommendations:
Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top seen at the level of 1.2004. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 21, 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Speculation about Ethereum 2.0 continues, and there are newer and newer leaks from insiders. One recent speculation is where the developer of Ethereum 2.0 predicts that a smart protocol contract allowing their Ethers to be deposited on 2.0 networks will be released in a matter of days. The staking process itself would start later this year.

ConsenSys developer Ben Edgington posted an entry that predicts the genesis of the ETH 2.0 beacon chain will take place in the next six to eight weeks.
In a post announcing the launch of the zero version for client 1.0, Edgington revealed that the protocol's smart contract feature should be announced this week. A smart escrow contract that allows ETH sending between Network 1.0 and Network 2.0 and is one of the few remaining updates needed to facilitate Ethereum 2.0 rollout in Phase 0. To complete Phase 0 launch, 500,000 Ethers will need to be staked once the beacon chain has started. After that, the network will prepare for the official launch for several weeks.

Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has extended the retracement towards the level of 61% located at $381.85, then the market pulled back towards the intraday support at $375.52 and bounced to the $381.85 again. The target for bulls is still seen at the level of $400 and the bulls are consolidating the recent gains. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $389.90 and at the swing top at $394.95. On the other hand, the target for bears is seen at the level of $360.60 and $355.60 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $369.37.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $424.52
WR2 - $408.88
WR1 - $391.97
Weekly Pivot - $376.47
WS1 - $357.63
WS2 - $341.22
WS3 - $328.22

Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. Moreover, bulls had bounced from the weekly trend line support last week and now are away from it. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 23, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair keeps going lower as the corrective cycle from the local high at 1.3180 continues. The price has broken below the 38% Fibonacci retracement seen at 1.3074 and is heading towards the level of 50% located at 1.3041. The market is coming off the overbought levels, so the price might get below 1.3000 zome again. The key technical support is still seen at the level of 1.2982 - 1.3017. Moreover, it is worth to keep an eye on the upper channel line again for any indication of broken support.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3222
WR2 - 1.3147
WR1 - 1.3005
Weekly Pivot - 1.2924
WS1 - 1.2790
WS2 - 1.2718
WS3 - 1.2567

Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.