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Re: InstaForex Analysis

USD / CAD: Sellers in business

Good evening, dear traders. Today, there is a small recommendation on USD / CAD, and the decline of which is now very likely.

The thing is that yesterday's news from Canada caused a great reaction from the market, and in the end, we see that all the news impulses from the buyer were completely absorbed, and this is a harbinger of even a local, but decline.

Therefore, today, I recommend trying to work on the decline of USD / CAD currency pair with a take profit at around 1.3070. Moreover, the maximum point of yesterday's loss will be considered to be the maximum of yesterday's news - the level of 1.3121. If the price updates the maximum, the scenario can be considered completely canceled.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191023/analytics5db056e42cee9.png

I wish you success in trading and huge profits!

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Forecast of EURUSD ahead of ECB and Fed meetings

Key central banks will hold their meetings on Thursday, October 24, and Wednesday, 29 and 30, which will determine the dynamics of financial markets for at least the next one and a half to two months, and maybe in the longer term. Given these important events, from the point of view of trading in the foreign exchange market, we need to make assumptions cleared of information noise, and then look at how our assumptions worked out in reality. In other words, we need to create an algorithm of actions and make changes to it in accordance with newly emerging circumstances.

However, why did I need to mark up a roadmap before and not after the event has already happened? There are a number of reasons for this, and first of all, my deep conviction that in the current situation, meetings of central banks will only confirm decisions already made earlier. Surprises are possible only from the Fed, but this seems unlikely. Therefore, while there are still some doubts regarding the actions of the Open Market Committee, I personally have no doubts about the actions of the European Central Bank.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191025/analytics5db23977015ec.jpg

First of all, traders should know that, according to the regulations, the ECB never comments on or regulates the euro or, at least, declares it in words. However, one must be very naive to assume the detachment of the regulator in the fate of the exchange rate of the currency accountable to him. In words, the Fed and the ECB pursue an independent monetary policy, but the ability to create surplus value from the issue of money helps maintain the high standards of life for the "golden billion".

Therefore, it's impossible for me to imagine that the change in exchange rates has been let off by gravity of key central banks. Well, if Russia holds consultations with OPEC countries to limit oil production and thus regulates the price, then the countries that are members of the North Atlantic alliance have been doing this for a long time and quite successfully, but with regard to money. Having in its hands a tool that controls 90 percent of the world's money circulation, it is a sin not to use this tool.

So, what do we currently know about the policy of central banks? The European Central Bank maintains a refinancing rate of 0% and re-launched a large-scale asset purchase program worth €20 billion per month, and did so simultaneously with new long-term refinancing programs, which should not only increase the availability of liquidity in the European market, but also stimulate the development of the European economics. According to many experts, this should serve to weaken the euro, but did it?

Having been hit by a liquidity crisis in the repurchase market that erupted in September, the Fed, under the formal pretext of increasing reserves of commercial banks, was forced to adopt an urgent program for the purchase of short-term bills of the US government totaling $65 billion per month. This at least equalizes the chances of the dollar in the competition of printing presses, if it does not increase its advantage. However, the truth is that the quantitative easing policy does not affect the exchange rate, at least to the extent that we would like to. You can see the evidence on the chart (Fig. 1), which shows the dynamics of the trade-weighted US dollar index calculated by the Fed based on the results of trade with leading world currencies.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191025/analytics5db2398a4de4d.jpg

Figure 1: Relationship between US Fed assets and the trade-weighted dollar index. Source - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Indeed, there are periods on the chart when the dollar depreciated with an increase in the Fed balance, but there are periods when everything happened exactly the opposite. A similar picture can be obtained by comparing the euro and the change in the balance sheet of the European Central Bank. The connection between the exchange rate and the balance sheet of the central bank may exist, but it is certainly not so primitive that we could calculate it using simple methods.

When assessing the prospects for exchange rates, one should rather be guided by dynamic changes in the interest rate differential in the EURUSD rate, an assessment of the yield of treasury instruments with the same maturity, inflation potential, growth prospects for prices of major commodity assets, positioning of leading traders in the futures market, and seasonal factors. You and I can try to evaluate something, but most of the factors will remain unknown to us. At the same time, trading in exchange rates is doing so in probability, and the more facts we can evaluate, the higher the probability of success for the transactions we make. The main thing in these factors then is not to get confused.

If we talk about the dynamic prospects of rates, then the advantage here is on the side of the euro. The ECB is in no hurry to make a refinancing rate below zero, and Mario Draghi, as a downed pilot, is rather concerned about how he can eject a golden parachute. He did everything he could, which at least presupposes a period of some stability in the policy of the regulator.

In turn, since July of this year, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by half a percent, from 2.25 to 1.75, meaning the lower limit of the range established by the Open Markets Committee. Today, 94% of traders believe that the Fed will go for another rate cut in 6 days, dropping it to the level of 1.50-1.75 percent. A decrease in differential by 0.75% over three months is a serious decrease in the possibility of earning by arbitrage operations. Therefore, it is not surprising that from the beginning of August, that is, from the moment the Fed rate was lowered, institutional investors gradually refused to place investments in US dollars.

During this time, the long positions of institutional management funds (Asset Manager) lost about a tenth, while euro sales by this category of traders in the futures market, on the contrary, increased. At the same time, asset managers have been the main buyers of the euro in the futures market since 2016, which was due to their hedging a short position in the cash market that accompanies transactions in investments in higher-yield dollar instruments.

Actually, the question now is not whether there will be a reversal of the downward trend in euros, but when it will happen. Last week ended with serious technical signs of breaking the fundamental trend on the EURUSD course. However, the reversal is not yet over, and its formation may last another one or two months, which is fraught for us with problems associated with the formation of a new direction, and the meetings of central banks that we will see in the near future may accelerate or may slow down the formation of the reversal. However, the probability of a EURUSD rate reversal is becoming more and more every day, take this into account when opening your positions.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for October 28

Forecast for October 28: Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191028/analytics5db64568dc41d.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1138, 1.1119, 1.1103, 1.1083, 1.1068, 1.1049, 1.1038 and 1.1013. Here, the continuation of the development of the downward cycle of October 21 is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1068. In this case, the goal is 1.1049. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1049 - 1.1038 . For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1013. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1103 - 1.1119. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1138. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 21.
Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.1104 Take profit: 1.1117
Buy: 1.1120 Take profit: 1.1137
Sell: 1.1068 Take profit: 1.1050
Sell: 1.1037 Take profit: 1.1014

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191028/analytics5db645876210f.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3215, 1.3141, 1.3033, 1.2939, 1.2810, 1.2734 and 1.2625. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 9. At the moment, the price has expressed a pronounced potential for the downward movement of October 21. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2959. In this case, the first target is 1.3035. The breakdown of the level of 1.3035 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3141. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3141 - 1.3215.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.2877 - 1.2810. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2715. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of potential for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 1.2625.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 9, the formation of the descending structure of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.2960 Take profit: 1.3031
Buy: 1.3035 Take profit: 1.3140
Sell: 1.2808 Take profit: 1.2717
Sell: 1.2713 Take profit: 1.2627

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191028/analytics5db645b1f1f6a.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9999, 0.9976, 0.9963, 0.9940, 0.9929 and 0.9909. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 18. Short-term upward movement, we expect in the range 0.9963 - 0.9976. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is a potential target - 0.9999, when this value is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9940 - 0.9929. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9909. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 18.

Trading recommendations:
Buy : 0.9963 Take profit: 0.9974
Buy : 0.9978 Take profit: 0.9999
Sell: 0.9940 Take profit: 0.9931
Sell: 0.9927 Take profit: 0.9912

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191028/analytics5db645cdd24cc.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.66, 109.33, 108.90, 108.72, 108.24, 108.02 and 107.67. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 4. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 108.72 - 108.90. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 109.33. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.66. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a pullback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.24 - 108.02. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.67. This level is a key support for the top. Main trend: local structure for the top of October 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.90 Take profit: 109.30
Buy : 109.34 Take profit: 109.65
Sell: 108.24 Take profit: 108.03
Sell: 108.00 Take profit: 107.70

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191028/analytics5db645efce896.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3160, 1.3128, 1.3101, 1.3036 and 1.2989. Here, we are following the development of the downward trend of October 10. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3036. In this case, the target is the potential target 1.2989. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3101 - 1.3128. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3160. This level is a key support for the downward structure. The main trend is the downward cycle of October 10.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.3101 Take profit: 1.3126
Buy : 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3160
Sell: Take profit:
Sell: 1.3034 Take profit: 1.3000

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191028/analytics5db6461d143ab.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6933, 0.6901, 0.6886, 0.6856, 0.6836, 0.6794, 0.6781, 0.6752 and 0.6722. Here, we are following the descending structure of October 22. At the moment, we expect to reach the level of 0.6794. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6794 - 0.6781. The breakdown of the level of 0.6780 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.6752. Price consolidation is near this level, and there is also a high probability of a rollback to the top. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6722. Upon reaching which, we expect a departure in the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6836 - 0.6856. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the formation of an ascending structure. Here, the potential target is 0.6886.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 22.
Trading recommendations:
Buy: 0.6836 Take profit: 0.6854
Buy: 0.6858 Take profit: 0.6886
Sell : 0.6780 Take profit : 0.6752
Sell: 0.6750 Take profit: 0.6724

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191028/analytics5db6464037959.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.79, 121.34, 121.03, 120.61, 120.28, 119.92 and 119.64. Here, the price has entered an equilibrium state and forms the potential for the downward movement of October 21. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 121.03 - 121.34. The breakdown of the level of 121.35 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 121.79. Price consolidation is in the range of 121.79 - 121.95. From here, we expect a correction.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 120.61 - 120.28. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.92. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the first goal is 119.64.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 15 and the formation of potential for the bottom of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 121.05 Take profit: 121.34
Buy: 121.36 Take profit: 121.76
Sell: 120.25 Take profit: 119.94
Sell: 119.90 Take profit: 119.66

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191028/analytics5db6467d0940c.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 141.23, 139.53, 138.70, 137.79 and 137.08. Here, the price has entered an equilibrium state and currently forms a potential for the bottom of October 21. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.23. In this case, the potential target is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 139.53 - 138.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 137.79. The range of 137.79 - 137.08 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8, the formation of potential for the downward movement of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: Take profit:
Buy: 141.25 Take profit: 142.80
Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75
Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Re: InstaForex Analysis

GBP/USD. Early elections in Britain: intrigue persists - Liberal Democrats put forward a counter demand

The European Union granted Great Britain an extension of Brexit. Despite the "traditional" resistance of the French, Brussels agreed to prolong the negotiation process until January 31, 2020. However, the British do not have to wait for the final date: the postponement is flexible, so London can prematurely initiate the completion of the Brexit procedure. But for this, the deputies of the House of Commons need to support the proposed draft deal with the EU. Fulfillment of this condition is the most difficult stage of the negotiation process. That is why the pound almost ignored today's decision of the Europeans. If Paris continued to block the deferral agreement, the GBP/USD pair would accordingly continue the downward movement. But by and large, traders were sure that in the end Brussels would agree on this step, therefore, a positive verdict on this issue provided little support to the pair.

But the issue of holding early elections to the House of Commons excites the minds of traders. After all, the fate of the orderly Brexit is now completely in the hands of the British Parliament, the current composition of which, to put it mildly, is very unfavorable to the current prime minister. So, in the House of Commons there are 650 deputies, 294 of which are Conservatives. A few months ago, there were 315 Tory representatives, but Johnson expelled 21 deputies from the party for "political indiscipline" - they supported the law obliging him to ask Brussels for deferment of Brexit.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191029/analytics5db781c4a2906.jpg

In order to overcome the threshold of a simple majority, the prime minister needs another 31 votes (provided that the Conservatives vote "yes"). The Tory's temporary ally is the Democratic Union Party — at the expense of their representatives, the Conservatives had a majority in Parliament. But this is in a "peaceful" time, while now the Unionists are also categorically against the approval of the deal. Other parties represented in the British Parliament - the Scottish National Party, the Greens and the Party of Wales - are long-standing opponents of the Conservatives in general and Boris Johnson in particular, so it will be extremely difficult for the prime minister to entice them to his side.

Meanwhile, a snap election in Britain could be called with the support of two-thirds of Parliament (434 MPs). Labour has twice blocked the government's initiative to hold elections, and this time also promised to vote in a similar way. According to the British press, Downing street is also discussing a "plan B": Johnson's supporters initiate a vote of no confidence in the government – after the completion of the two-week period, which is allotted for the formation of a new Cabinet, the Parliament "automatically" dissolves. In this case, Johnson will need a simple majority, but there are risks: for example, during the allotted 14 days, opposition parties can hypothetically unite around another leader, depriving the Conservatives of power.

Another way to early elections is to change the electoral law itself. However, any such bill can get bogged down in parliamentary discussions for a long time. Labour could amend the proposal to Johnson's disadvantage by adjusting the timing or procedure of the election. In addition, the opposition may delay consideration of the bill for a long time by introducing various amendments, for example, on the right to vote for 16-year-olds.

The first battles in the British Parliament on the issue of early elections ended in nothing today. On Monday, Labour again reaffirmed their position - they will not support Johnson's initiative. When the speaker put this issue to a vote, 299 deputies spoke in favor, which is 135 less than the required number.

But the Liberal Democrats announced that they would support early elections, but they did not propose holding them on December 12, but on December 9. At first glance, the difference of three days is not significant, but not in this case. The fact is that on December 9, students of most universities will still be in their educational institutions (and are more likely to take part in the elections). But on December 10-11, the Christmas holidays begin: many students may not wait for the end of the week and will leave for a vacation. Libdems are popular among young people, so this nuance has strategic importance for them. Boris Johnson announced that he would discuss the proposal of Liberal Democrats, after which the parliament would return to this issue again - most likely, on Tuesday.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191029/analytics5db781d7ead26.jpg

It is worth noting that a survey conducted from Wednesday to Friday last week showed that Conservative support reached 40%, while Labour remained at the same level - 24%. Compared with the survey the week before last, Tory support grew by 3%, but the result of the Labour Party did not change. Liberal Democrats, in turn, received 15% support in the latest poll, and Nigel Farage's Brexit party received 10%. All this suggests that following the results of early elections, Johnson will be able to form a majority in the House of Commons and, accordingly, agree on a deal with Brussels.

Thus, the first round of the struggle for elections ended to no avail. At the same time, the intrigue in this matter still persists, especially amid the prolongation of the negotiation process until January 31 and the position of Liberal Democrats.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs as of October 30
Forecast for October 30:
Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1138, 1.1119, 1.1103, 1.1083, 1.1068, 1.1049, 1.1038 and 1.1013. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of October 21. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1083 - 1.1068. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 1.1049. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1049 - 1.1038. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1013. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

We expect a consolidated movement in the range 1.1103 - 1.1119. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1138. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of an upward trend. In this case, the potential target is 1.1173.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 21, the correction stage. Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.1120 Take profit: 1.1137
Buy: 1.1142 Take profit: 1.1170
Sell: 1.1083 Take profit: 1.1070
Sell: 1.1068 Take profit: 1.1050
For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3215, 1.3141, 1.3033, 1.2939, 1.2810, 1.2734 and 1.2625. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 9. At the moment, the price has expressed a pronounced potential for the downward movement of October 21. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2959. In this case, the first target is 1.3035. The breakdown of the level of 1.3035 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3141. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3141 - 1.3215.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.2877 - 1.2810. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2715. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of potential for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 1.2625.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 9, the formation of the descending structure of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.2960 Take profit: 1.3031
Buy: 1.3035 Take profit: 1.3140
Sell: 1.2808 Take profit: 1.2717
Sell: 1.2713 Take profit: 1.2627


For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9999, 0.9976, 0.9963, 0.9940, 0.9929 and 0.9909. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 18. Short-term upward movement, we expect in the range 0.9963 - 0.9976. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is a potential target - 0.9999, when this value is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 0.9940 - 0.9929. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9909. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 18, the correction stage. Trading recommendations:
Buy : 0.9963 Take profit: 0.9974
Buy : 0.9978 Take profit: 0.9999
Sell: Take profit:
Sell: 0.9927 Take profit: 0.9912

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 109.39, 109.29, 109.13, 108.85, 108.72 and 108.53. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 23. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.13. In this case, the target is 109.29. Price consolidation is in the range of 109.29 - 109.39. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.58, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.85 - 108.72. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.53. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: local structure for the top of October 23.
Trading recommendations:
Buy: 109.13 Take profit: 109.29
Buy : 109.40 Take profit: 109.56
Sell: 108.85 Take profit: 108.74
Sell: 108.70 Take profit: 108.55

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3160, 1.3128, 1.3101, 1.3036 and 1.2989. Here, we are following the development of the downward trend of October 10. At the moment, the price forms a small potential of October 29 for the movement in correction. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3036. In this case, the target is the potential target 1.2989. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3101 - 1.3128. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3160. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 10, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.3101 Take profit: 1.3126
Buy : 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3160
Sell: Take profit:
Sell: 1.3034 Take profit: 1.3000

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6928, 0.6910, 0.6897, 0.6874, 0.6847, 0.6831 and 0.6810. Here, the price registered the local upward structure of October 28. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6874. In this case, the target is 0.6897. Price consolidation is in in the range of 0.6897 - 0.6910. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6928. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6847 - 0.6831. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of a downward structure. Here, the potential target is 0.6810.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of October 28.
Trading recommendations:
Buy: 0.6875 Take profit: 0.6896
Buy: 0.6910 Take profit: 0.6928
Sell : 0.6846 Take profit : 0.6831
Sell: 0.6828 Take profit: 0.6810

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.79, 121.34, 121.03, 120.61, 120.28, 119.92 and 119.64. Here, price has entered an equilibrium state. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 121.03 - 121.34. The breakdown of the level of 121.35 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 121.79. Price consolidation is in the range of 121.79 - 121.95. From here, we expect a correction.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 120.61 - 120.28. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.92. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the first goal is 119.64.

The main trend is the rising structure of October 15 and the formation of potential for the bottom of October 21. Trading recommendations:
Buy: 121.05 Take profit: 121.34
Buy: 121.36 Take profit: 121.76
Sell: 120.25 Take profit: 119.94
Sell: 119.90 Take profit: 119.66

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 141.23, 139.53, 138.70, 137.79 and 137.08. Here, price has entered an equilibrium state. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.23. In this case, the potential target is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 139.53 - 138.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 137.79. The range of 137.79 - 137.08 is the key support for the top. The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8, the formation of potential for the downward movement of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 141.25 Take profit: 142.80
Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75
Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Is the Canadian dollar a child of fortune? The loonie has a second wind

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191031/analytics5dba1ff25b16f.jpg

The Canadian dollar has been on the rise since the beginning of the week. However, experts suggest that the flight of the loonie can be interrupted by changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, as well as a deterioration in economic data. In this situation, the market favors the loonie, analysts emphasize.

The loonie was in the spotlight on Wednesday, October 30. The market is monitoring the further actions of the Bank of Canada, which is ready to hold a meeting on monetary policy. If the regulator keeps the rate at 1.75%, while the Fed reduces it to 1.50% –1.75%, then the Canadian dollar will push its American counterpart. The loonie claims to be the leader, striving to become the most profitable currency in the "Big Ten."

According to analysts, the rise of the Canadian dollar is possible not only in case of maintaining the same rates, but also amid optimistic comments of the regulator regarding the growth of the national economy. At the last meeting, the Bank of Canada left the interest rate unchanged. The regulator focused on strengthening the labor market, increasing wages and the positive state of the economy.

Analysts believe that current data on the Canadian economy will not be so rosy. The regulator should take into account a number of negative factors, such as a slowdown in retail sales, a drop in the consumer price index, a decrease in GDP growth and inflation risks. At the moment, the labor market in Canada remains strong, wage growth is quite stable, however, the weakness of the national economy along with the worsening situation in the United States may lead to a change in Bank of Canada's strategy. In such a situation, the regulator will review the current decision on rates. If this happens, a stable short-term low will form in the USD/CAD pair, analysts said.

The positive against the Canadian dollar is radiating from the options market. According to experts, the three-month risk reversal with a delta of 25% demonstrates the most favorable period for the growth of the loonie to the US dollar. This has not happened since 2009, experts emphasize. Reducing the risk-reversal in the USD/CAD pair for three-month option contracts is a barometer of long-term investor sentiment. Analysts record a bullish trend for the Canadian dollar, noting that over the past 10 years, investors have never been so optimistic about the loonie.

A similar change of mood occurred shortly before the decisions of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy and the Federal Reserve at the key rate. Currently, the loonie has been supported by both a profitable interest rate differential and increased expectations for a trade deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada in November.

On Tuesday, October 29, the USD/CAD pair peaked in the past four weeks. On Wednesday morning, the pair fell by 0.08% to 1.3078-1.3880.

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Yesterday, the USD/CAD pair showed an increase of 0.3% to a high since the beginning of October. The pair hit the 1.3098 bar, but is now pulling back to its lows. Yesterday's growth of the pair from an intraday low was caused by an increase in sales, Scotiabank analysts believe. Experts are certain that the pair is normal. At the moment, the USD/CAD pair is trading in the range of 1.3077–1.3078, showing an upward trend.

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Analysts agree that the current situation is quite favorable for the loonie. Most of them note excellent prospects for it. The Canadian dollar, which seemed to have opened its second wind, is capable of another leap forward, experts said. They expect a moderate, long rise of the loonie in the short and medium term.

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Control zones EURUSD 11/04/19

At the end of last week, the defining resistance was the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.1161-1.1153. At the same time, the closing of trading on Friday occurred above this zone. This opens up opportunities for further growth of the pair to weekly control zone 1.1249-1.1233. The euro purchases come to the fore, however, favorable prices are located just below the level of 1.1134.

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At the moment, the pair is trading near the maximum of the last month, which increases the possibility of the proposal and the continuation of the formation of the accumulation zone. Work within the accumulation zone will be relevant until the closure of one of the active sessions occurs above the weekly maximum. If this happens, then the growth rate will increase and a weekly test will take one to two days. In the event of a major offer after updating the monthly maximum, the target will be the level of 1.1134, where a new priority will be determined.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191104/analytics5dbf7457ced99.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Pound moved to a tactical retreat

If someone thought that the British pound would return to normal after reducing the chances of a disorderly Brexit to a low, then the beginning of November showed that they are wrong. The leader of the Brexit party, Nigel Faraj, fundamentally disagreeing with the main provisions of the project of Boris Johnson, said he would fight for every seat in the renewed Parliament. This can seriously complicate the position of the Conservatives and increase the risks of the victory of the party of Jeremy Corbyn. Labour promises to nationalize enterprises, raise taxes and hold a second referendum on divorce from the EU. The political landscape in Great Britain remains shaky, which allows Goldman Sachs to recommend that its client close long sterling positions as part of a "tactical retreat".

The dynamics of popularity of the main parties in Britain

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Thanks to the almost zero chance of a disorderly Brexit, the pound climbed to second in the list of the best performers of G10 since the beginning of the year. Sterling's two-month volatility has fallen to September lows, however, the intensification of political struggle can lead to an increase in the indicator, which will adversely affect capital flows and the short-term prospects of the British currency.

Pound Volatility Dynamics

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The pound practically did not pay attention to the rapid growth of business activity in the manufacturing sector from 48.3 to 49.6 in October. Surveys of purchasing managers were conducted during a period of general euphoria about the fact that a disorderly Brexit was avoided. In addition, the PMI continues to be below the critical mark of 50, indicating a decline in the sector. I do not think that sterling will be very sensitive to the release of data on business activity in the construction and services sectors, but a meeting of the Bank of England can make it worry.

Only one out of the 19 Bloomberg experts predicts that the BoE will lower the repo rate, the rest are confident that it will remain at the same level of 0.75%. At the same time, most experts believe that the central bank will lower forecasts for inflation and GDP and increase estimates of unemployment. This is a hint of monetary expansion, which will increase the risks of a GBP/USD correction. On the whole, it's a rather unexpected turn, given the fact that BoE's previous forecasts were based on the assumption that a disorderly Brexit could be avoided.

Assessment of changes in Bank of England forecasts

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If you add seasonal weakness to the growing political risks and potential dovish rhetoric of Mark Carney, then the immediate prospects for sterling can begin to be drawn in gray tones. According to the results of November in 1975-2018, it closed in the red zone in 28 out of 44 cases. Nevertheless, the bullish trend looks stable, so the correction at the end of autumn made it possible to buy a cheaper pound.

Technically, if the bulls on GBP/USD manage to keep the pair quotes above 1.29 and update the October high, then the chances of continuing the rally in the direction of the target by 88.6% according to the Bat pattern will increase. In the opposite case, we are waiting for a correction to 1.276 and 1.272.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 6, 2019

EUR/USD
The euro closed the day down by 51 points yesterday. Business media point out the reason for the optimistic sentiment among investors regarding the upcoming US and China trade deal and good October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 52.6 to 54.7. But with a broad view of the market, it is clear that investors are far from experiencing the interest in risk that was on Friday after the release of US employment data. The Dow Jones stock index grew just 0.11%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.12%. The general mood for dollar purchases remains, and it is characteristic that the price has not reached the levels at which the massive closing of euro purchases began on October 22 and 24, which we spoke about at the time.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191106/analytics5dc24d209a8d9.png

The decline in the euro stopped at the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the lows of October 25-29. There may be a respite before the subsequent downward movement. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator penetrates into the negative trend zone. After a respite, we are waiting for prices to fall to the MACD line at around 1.1027. We admit corrective growth to the price channel line near 1.1104.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191106/analytics5dc24d361bc05.png

The situation is completely declining on the four-hour chart: the price is under the lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator is developing in the territory of the declining trend.

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Trading idea for the AUD/CAD

Good evening, dear traders. I present to you the trading idea for the AUD/CAD pair. The decision on the Bank of Australia interest rate - to leave it unchanged until 11/05/2019 - was positively received by the market. And almost all instruments with the Australian dollar worked on a major note. Our recommendations on holding longs on the AUD/USD pair also worked perfectly for this news, and those who followed this trading recommendation closed their positions in positive territory.

However, there was only one instrument with AUD, and the potential of longs on which has not yet been fully exhausted. This is AUD/CAD. We have already given recommendations on this instrument and they all closed in positive territory:

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191106/analytics5dc2d8e36e319.png

Despite that, the instrument has not yet fulfilled all the goals to the end. I mean the level of 0.91500. And if you want to gain a long position on it, profit can be fixed there. From current prices, the potential will be about 850p for 5zn. But if the instrument rolls back - the potential will be higher. It can be noted that the asset is quite "noisy" and gaining a position, as a rule, is not a problem. The nearest news on it (CAD)- change in employment will be released on Friday at 13:30 UTC+00. It is most likely that the breakdown will take place at this time.

Good luck in trading and see you tomorrow!

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GBPUSD. Bank of England dissidents, predictions and phlegmatic pound

The results of "Super Thursday" were expectedly not in favor of the British currency, although the first violin in the downward pressure on the pound was played not by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, but by two members of the English regulator who unexpectedly called for easing monetary policy. Traders were clearly discouraged by this fact, since the prospects of monetary policy have recently been discussed in a slightly different aspect. Experts discussed - will the BoE raise the rate in the first half of next year or will it still take a wait-and-see attitude? Now this discussion has been supplemented with one more question - will the English regulator resort to a preventive reduction in the rate?

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The culprits of the bearish triumph were two members of the Committee - Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel. It is worth noting that Saunders is not the first to vote "against the grain", that is, contrary to the general opinion of most colleagues. A little over a year ago, he, along with Ian McCafferty, voted to raise the rate, while the remaining seven members of the Committee voted to maintain the status quo. This went on for three meetings, but then Saunders again joined the majority, voting in a general rhythm.

Now there is a mirror situation. Saunders and Haskel voted to reduce interest rates, violating the expected balance of power (0-2-7 instead of the predicted 0-0-9). For the first time in three years (that is, since August 2016), members of the Committee, albeit not in the majority, voted in favor of easing monetary policy. Moreover, Saunders and Haskell said that the regulator needs to introduce additional incentives as soon as possible, since recent releases indicate a weakening of the British labor market amid increasing risks from the global trade conflict.

The BoE did not support the peculiar "dissidents" in its conclusions, but also did not exclude the realization of such a scenario in the future. The rhetoric of the accompanying statement left a double impression. On the one hand, the English regulator made it clear that if global economic growth does not stabilize, Brexit uncertainty will continue, and key economic indicators will continue downward trend, then the central bank may have to intervene. But then the regulator hastened to declare the likelihood of an alternative scenario. If these risks do not materialize, then the issue of a gradual increase in the rate will again be on the agenda.

In other words, the prospects for monetary policy in the UK again depend on external factors. The Bank of England made it clear that it is ready to tighten monetary policy, but in the conditions of a "soft" Brexit and at least a conditional trade truce between the US and China. And of course, given the growth of key macroeconomic indicators in Britain, especially in the labor market and inflation.

Unfortunately for the GBP/USD bulls, the English regulator lowered its forecasts for the main economic indicators. So, GDP growth for the next year was reduced from 1.3% to the lowest level over the past ten years, 1.2%, and in 2021 - from 2.3% immediately to 1.8%. The BoE also lowered its inflation forecast - according to regulator members, its growth will slow by 1.2% by mid-2020, due to lower prices for black gold and regulatory restrictions on electricity and water tariffs.

Summing up the November meeting, Mark Carney confirmed that the central bank's next likely move would be a reduction in interest rates, as the Bank of England's updated economic forecasts were revised negatively. He also expressed concern that weak investment is detrimental to industrial production, thereby limiting the growth of the British economy and slowing inflation.

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Nevertheless, it cannot be said that Carney announced a rate cut in the near future. He just did not rule out a similar scenario, linking it primarily with a possible "hard" Brexit and a general slowdown in the global economy. He voiced such rhetoric more than once, just in this case, Carney's position was reinforced by updated forecasts of the central bank of a negative nature. The two members of the Committee who voted in favor of lowering the rate only added fuel to the fire, putting additional pressure on the pound.

Thus, the November meeting of the Bank of England was by no means "passing". But despite the dovish tone of the regulator, the downward impulse of the GBP/USD pair was limited. Bears could not even gain a foothold in the 27th figure, and the price actually returned to its previous positions during the US session on Thursday. Apparently, traders are still tuned for a Conservative victory in December, and, accordingly, for the soft Brexit, with all the ensuing consequences.

Given this market reaction, it can be assumed that the GBP/USD pair will continue to trade flat, reacting violently only to political news. The pound turned out to be stress-resistant to dovish threats from the Bank of England, so the further dynamics of the pair will be determined only by the political prospects of the "divorce proceedings" between London and Brussels.

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Control zones NZDUSD 11/11/19

The downward movement of the pair is impulsive, as the pair has gone beyond the average weekly movement. This indicates a high likelihood of continued fall and an update of the monthly low. Sales will be profitable after the pair returns to the broken middle course zone. The lower boundary of this zone is at the level of 0.6354.

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Work in the downward direction will be a priority at the beginning of the new week. The first goal of the fall will be WCZ 1/2 0.6271-0.6265.

A strong increase in demand is required to break the downward momentum, which will lead to the closure of trading on Monday to be above Friday's Asian session. This will indicate the emergence of a major player interested in the appreciation of the New Zealand dollar.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Do not trade USD until Wednesday/Thursday

I present to you the evening market analysis.

So today, Monday is one of the worst days to trade in a week, according to many experienced traders. However, if we filter out prejudice and look at the economic calendar, then the next news we will see is only on Wednesday and Thursday. Below, I noted all the important news on USD by the end of the week:

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As you can see, this week, we have inflation on Wednesday, and on Thursday, PPI and Powell will be powerful volatile days. Think about it yourself, if you are a bank trader and know that on Wednesday - USD inflation - will you be gaining a position on rumors about its increase or decrease? Of course not! Do you know why? Because all profitable participants are "accountable" people, i.e. they report on their actions to management, investors, etc. Because it is a business. That is why market volatility is falling ahead of the good news. And now is just such a moment. Therefore, I recommend to wait until Wednesday and Thursday.

Most private traders trade a pair of EUR / USD, and I think that it's better to forget about "dollar" instruments by Wednesday. For saving money in flat is a great art. I'm perhaps the only analyst who will periodically recommend you not to trade smile. "Stay in the cache" - believe me - far from the worst option in trading. After all, the main task in trade is to save a deposit.

Good luck in trading and see you at the morning review!

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Oil returned to production

Euphoria over the proximity of the agreement between China and the United States to end the trade war pulled up quotes of the Brent and WTI. Nevertheless, it was worth of Donald Trump to say that the issue of the rollback of import duties has not yet been resolved, China will notice an 11.5% increase in black gold imports in October, and Oman will declare at the OPEC+ meeting that the agreement on production cut would be extended in the previous volume, as the bulls in both varieties began to get nervous.

As I noted in several previous materials, the slowdown in shale production in the United States, on the one hand, and the reduction in its volumes by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other countries, on the other hand, have made the factor in changing global demand as the main driver of pricing. The slowdown in its growth under the influence of trade wars caused oil to fall from April to September, however, as soon as a turning point emerged in relations between Beijing and Washington, the situation changed radically. Speculators began to leave short positions and open long ones, and black gold added about 5% since the beginning of November.

The dynamics of speculative positions and quotes WTI

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China is the largest oil consumer in the world, therefore, an increase in its imports in January-October by 10.5% YOY made it possible for investors to raise the logical question: if a trade war does not prevent China from increasing purchases of black gold, is it worth expecting that an agreement between Beijing and Washington will sharply raise prices? It is possible that most of the positive has already been incorporated into the Brent and WTI quotes, so the agreement under Phase 1 will go unnoticed by the players.

Due to the prevailing principle of "buy by rumors, sell by facts" on the market, oil bulls may have problems after the OPEC+ signs an agreement on the extension of the Vienna agreement. It envisaged a decrease in production by 1.2 million bpd to March 2020. According to representatives of Oman, quotas will remain unchanged. Investors have no doubts about extending the terms of the agreement, so black gold can plunge into a wave of sales. Morgan Stanley believes that with such an outcome of the meeting between the cartel and Russia, prices for the North Sea grade will fall by 30% to $45 per barrel. Citigroup and BNP Paribas are afraid of the decline in Brent and WTI down to their lowest levels since the 1950s.

Only one thing is obvious - the discussions will be hot. Saudi Arabia needs North Sea growth of $84 per barrel and more to finance its wasteful spending, and Iran with its US sanctions - and $195 per barrel altogether. Opponents of further cutting, most likely, will talk about the loss of OPEC+ market share.

Technically, a breakthrough of resistance at $62.6 and $63.6 (Pivot levels) will make it possible for the Brent bulls to continue the rally in the direction of the targets for the Wolfe Wave and Shark patterns. They are located near the marks of $72.1 and $73.8 per barrel. On the contrary, the inability of buyers to storm important levels will increase the risks of declining quotes to $59.3 and $56.3.

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NZD / USD - change of priority

Good evening, dear traders! A rather rare event has occurred today: the NZD rate has not been lowered, although all the data and forecasts have indicated otherwise. The market expected a rate cut by 0.25 basis points, and as a result, the RBNZ decided to leave it at the same level. Of course, the event was unexpected at the moment, and the market reacted bullish: the NZD/USD currency pair will end the current day with strong growth. Therefore, the recommendation for this instrument is attempts to take a long position (buy), but only from a pullback.

Thus, I believe that on such a "positive" for the New Zealand currency, growth can be expected to continue from the morning impulse and the level of 0.6442 can be considered a possible target for growth - this is an important level for sellers who believe in this level as a resistance level. Now, after today's news, a very real prospect opens up to see at least a false breakdown of this level.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191114/analytics5dcc99a853d55.png

The level of 0.6369 is considered to be an intermediate level for the pullback - it would be interesting to see the pullback as such in its area.

I wish you all success in trading and great profits!

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 15, 2019


On Thursday, due to new difficulties in relations between the United States and China (China is resisting the signing of a clearly unprofitable trade agreement for it), investors chose to close their positions due to the uncertain economic data for Europe and the US that are coming out today, right before strong technical support (1.0985). The price exceeded the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator showed a reversal, but these are not yet sufficient conditions for significant growth, the situation is typical for correction. With the return of the price under the MACD line, the next wave of activity in euro sales is likely. We do not expect a correction above the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1073).

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191115/analytics5dce2c00129a2.png

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line entered the growth zone, while the price remains below the MACD line. The exit of the price above the line (1.1035) will allow the euro to develop a correction. This can be prevented by economic indicators; The eurozone trade balance for September is expected today to fall from 20.3 billion euros to 18.7 billion, US retail sales are projected to grow by 0.1% in October from -0.3% in September. Concern is caused by industrial production in the US for October, the forecast is -0.4%.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191115/analytics5dce2c15e2456.png

So, after the correction is over, we are waiting for a new round of euro decline. Overcoming the first support at 1.0985 opens the way to the second goal 1.0925.


*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Control zones USDJPY 11/18/19

The pair tested the WCZ 1/2 108.48-108.38 last Thursday. Consolidation below the zone did not occur, therefore, the upward medium-term impulse remains a priority. The first growth target is the November high. Its achievement will make it possible to close part of the purchases and transfer the rest to breakeven.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191118/analytics5dd20215bcabc.png

Closing Friday trades made it possible to form an absorption pattern of the daily level, which confirms the bullish momentum.

Re-absorption of Friday purchases will be required to implement an alternative option. The probability of this is below 30%, which does not make it possible to consider sales. The main goal of the bullish impulse is the weekly control zone 110.15-109.94, which gives a favorable risk-to-profit ratio for any purchase made from current levels and below. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the possibility of adding to a long position.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191118/analytics5dd2022c67f90.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Pound breaks the rules of the game

The unwillingness of the Brexit Party to continue the struggle for seats in the renewed Parliament was the catalyst for the GBP/USD rally in the direction of the psychologically important mark of 1.3. In 2017, out of 43 seats now owned by Nigel Faraj's followers, 17 were held by the Conservatives, 11 by the Labour Party. The chances of the Tories' victory on December 12 are growing, and according to a poll by Bloomberg experts, their win will allow the pound to fly to $1.34. In such conditions, bulls will find it difficult not to fall into euphoria.

According to a Savanta ComRes poll, the Conservative Party has a 10-point lead over the opposition Labour. Studies by Ipsos Mori showed that 25% of respondents believe in the Tory victory, a third of respondents believe that Boris Johnson's supporters will lead the coalition in the new Parliament. The prime minister himself claims that Conservatives will end the uncertainty that is hampering Britain's economy. Indeed, weaker GDP growth than Reuters experts expected, job cuts, inflation slowdowns and disappointing retail sales statistics indicate that Great Britain is in pain from market uncertainties.

As a result, the 5% sterling rally for the last quarter runs counter to the principle of fundamental analysis "strong economy - strong currency". I would not be surprised if weak data on business activity in Britain lead to a continuation of the rally of the analyzed pair, because in this situation the chances of the Conservatives winning will increase.

Theoretically, the volatility, growing like a yeast, should also exert pressure on the pound. Due to the volatility of quotes, GBP has often been called the "Great British Peso" recently, comparing it with the currencies of developing countries. In fact, the current level of volatility suggests that after a month the sterling will either rise to $1.32, or fall to $1.25. The first option seems more plausible than the second. Pound Volatility Dynamics

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191119/analytics5dd32c3aa048d.jpg

The pound is able to restore the bullish trend before December, however, to begin with, it needs to be tested by the publication of the minutes of the October FOMC meeting and political debate. In his speeches at a press conference following the Federal Reserve meeting and before the US Congress, Jerome Powell put a high barrier to changing the rate on federal funds. Its current level of 1.75% is considered by the central bank as comfortable, and reduction is possible only in two cases: with the escalation of the trade conflict in Washington and Beijing and with a significant and prolonged deterioration of US macroeconomic statistics. As a result, the derivatives market believes that before the fall of 2020, changes in the monetary policy of the Fed should not be expected. If the minutes of the October FOMC meeting confirms this, the US dollar may receive some preferences.

Technically, the GBP/USD update of the October highs will increase the risks of continuing the upward campaign to the area of 1,322-1,327, where the Bat and AB = CD targets are located, as well as the Pivot levels. While sterling is trading above $1.2725-1.275, the situation is under the control of the bulls.

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#USDX vs AUD / USD vs NZD / USD vs USD / CAD - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options for November 20, 2019 APLs & ZUP analysis

Minuette operational scale (H4) Commodity currencies - Here's a comprehensive analysis of the options for the development of the movement #USDX vs AUD / USD vs NZD / USD vs USD / CAD for November 20, 2019 on the Minuette operational scale forks (H4 time frame)

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US dollar Index

The dollar index continues to remain in the 1/2 Median Line channel (97.65 - 97.92 - 98.15) of the Minuette operational scale forks, respectively, the further development of the #USDX movement from November 20, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the above levels. The details of the development are shown on animated chart.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 97.65) of the Minuette operational scale forks - continuation of the downward movement #USDX to the equilibrium zone (97.40 - 97.15 - 96.92) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 98.15), the movement of the dollar index can be continued towards the goals: control line UTL (98.27) of the Minuette operational scale forks

- local maximum 98.45 - lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (98.50) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks - 1/2 Median Line Minuette (98.87).

The markup of #USDX movement options from November 20, 2019 is shown on the animated chart.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191119/analytics5dd3f80772af9.jpg

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD / USD from November 20, 2019 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6812 - 0.6825 - 0.6842) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of the development of the boundaries of this channel are presented on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6842 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel is the continuation of the movement of the Australian dollar to the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6855) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the equilibrium zone (0.6865 - 0.6890 - 0.6915) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

However, in the event of a breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 0.6812) on the Minuette operational scale, it will be possible to continue the downward movement of AUD / USD to the targets: the initial SSL Minuette line (0.6785) - local minimum 0.6770 - LTL Minuette control line (0.6760) - upper boundary ISL38.2 (0.6745) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

From November 20, 2019, we look at the layout of the AUD / USD movement options on the animated chart.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191119/analytics5dd3f8285a621.jpg

____________________

New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

From November 20, 2019, the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range :

resistance level of 0.6415 on the control line UTLof the Minuette operational scale forks;
support level of 0.6395 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The breakdown of the UTL control line (resistance level of 0.6415) of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the continuation of the development of the upward movement of NZD / USD to the equilibrium zone (0.6450 - 0.6475 - 0.6500) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

In contrast, the breakdown of support level of 0.6395 will cause the movement of the New Zealand dollar to continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6395 - 0.6380 - 0.6360) of the Minuette operational scale forks, and if the breakdown of the lower boundary (0.6360) of this channel takes place, then the downward movement of this currency instrument can continue goals: local minimums (0.6330 - 0.6318) - control line LTL Minuette (0.6300) - 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6275 - 0.6230 - 0.6185) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

From November 20, 2019, we look at the layout of the NZD / USD movement options on the animated chart.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191119/analytics5dd3f84341127.jpg

____________________

US dollar vs Canadian dollar

Similarly, the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD from November 20, 2019 will also be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

resistance level of 1.3210 at the lower boundary of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks;
support level of 1.3200 at the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (support level of 1.3200) will make the development of the Canadian dollar to continue in the equilibrium zone (1.3200 - 1.3180 - 1.3160) of the Minuette operational scale forks followed by the continuation thereof in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3160 - 1.3130 - 1.3100) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 1.3210) - the development of the USD / CAD movement in the equilibrium zone (1.3210 - 1.3252 - 1.3295) of the Minuette operational scale forks, taking into account the development of the SSL initial line (1.3262) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the local maximum 1.3270.

From November 20, 2019, we look at the markup of the USD / CAD movement options on the animated chart.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191119/analytics5dd3f895d73a4.jpg

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders " sell " or " buy ")

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:
Euro - 57.6%;
Yen - 13.6%;
Pound Sterling - 11.9%;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish Krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Trading idea for the AUD/USD pair

Good evening, dear traders! The growth of AUD / USD is what is interesting today. As we remember, unemployment data was published in Australia last week on November 14, to which this instrument reacted negatively: the AUD/USD currency pair was declining throughout the whole day. An important detail is that during the fall, an important extreme at 0.6810 was updated. Thus, I believe that this was a culmination of the downward trend in November, and given the reaction of the Australian dollar to this week's news, I think that local growth is possible to the level of 0.6843, which is the news' high on Wednesday. Now, why exactly this level? It's simple - every seller who believes in a further fall of this instrument will clearly depend precisely on the news impulse on November 14, so the price can go there with a high degree of probability.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191121/analytics5dd5cf772d1f3.png

Recommendation: try to buy in order to update the level of 0.6943. At the same time, losses can be limited to the lowest level of 0.6788 - there is no sense in holding purchases below, and in case of updating this minimum, the bullish scenario can be considered invalid.

Wishing you all success in trading and huge profits!

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Re: InstaForex Analysis

GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!


Price is approaching our first support where we are expecting a bounce above this level.

Entry: 1.28978

38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

Take Profit : 1.29731

Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance


https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191122/analytics5dd75b1839761.png


*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Re: InstaForex Analysis

GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191125/analytics5ddb48d26a074.png

Price is approaching our first resistance a 1.28722 where we are expecting a drop to our first support level at 1.27697.

Entry: 1.28722
23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance
Take Profit : 1.27697
Why it's good : horizontal swing low support

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Developing USD/CAD pair and trading idea

During the previous recommendation on Friday,it is advised to develop the pair at least on a false breakdown of the level of 1.3269. Actually, this is exactly the outcome we are observing - on the news, this level was falsely broken, and thus, the recommendation completely justified itself. The plan was this:

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191126/analytics5ddc68f847338.png

Thus far, the intrigue of the instrument continues. False news breakdown of this level provides a good opportunity for the development of further medium-term upward trend. Since the end of October, there has been a prolonged upward trend on for this instrument, and the probability of its continuation is still high. For this reason, there is another recommendation for the same instrument today. I believe that the development will continue to a minimum to the level of 1.3326. Therefore, you can try to buy with a goal of updating it, limiting the risks at the price of 1.3254, since it makes no sense to keep purchases below the news last Friday. Updating Friday's minimum - the bullish scenario will be completely canceled.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191126/analytics5ddc690d5f8e9.png

Wishing you all success in trading and huge profits!

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Take profit on AUD/USD pair

Good evening, dear traders! Congratulations to those who took advantage of our trading idea for the AUD/USD pair, which was provided last November 25.

Let me remind you that the idea was to develop the lower daily area in a downward trend:

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191127/analytics5dddc16a70a70.png

As you can see, the first goal is taken:

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191126/analytics5ddd49f34a923.png

The collapse did not follow, so I recommend taking profits.

Good luck in trading and see you tomorrow morning!

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 28, 2019

EUR/USD
On Wednesday, US statistics continued to delight investors and markets swayed towards the dollar. The euro lost 22 points. GDP for the third quarter amounted to 2.1% against the expectation of 1.9%, the volume of orders for durable goods increased by 0.6% in October against the forecast of -0.5%,

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191128/analytics5ddf4214cc085.png

On the daily chart, the price went below the MACD indicator line. If today closes with a black candle, then the price will consolidate below it with the prospect of a medium-term decline. The immediate goal of this movement at 1.0925 is the lowest level of September 3 and 12. In the four-week period, the price of 1.0720/30 can be reached - the lower line of the blue price channel (visible on a very tight chart). The Marlin oscillator lies in the horizon in the negative trend zone, volatility is likely to be low in the thin market today.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191128/analytics5ddf422a878ce.png

On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated under the blue line of MACD. The range between the levels of 1.0985-1.1026 is likely to be today (perhaps even tomorrow) a consolidation zone.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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