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liteForex USD/CAD: the pair is trading in different directions

Current trend

Last Friday the pair’s dynamics was controversial after the US consumer inflation and retail sales data publications, and now the US dollar is growing insignificantly against Canadian currency.
The Friday’s US data weren’t’ disappointing, but the investors are lesser and lesser believing in another Fed’s interest rate rise this year. However, after the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index publication part of the optimistic moods restored. In October the index grew to the record level of 101.1 points from 95.1 points in September, while analysts expected the growth to 95.0 points.
During the morning session on October, 16, the pair is in correction, waiting for new signals. In particular, the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey will be released at 16:30 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range has narrowed to the minimum, reflecting the controversial trading dynamics of the recent days. It’s better to wait until new trading signal appear.
MACD is decreasing, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Taking into the consideration the recent flat dynamics, the signal is not worth believing, but the current short positions in the short term can be kept for some time.
Stochastic is reversing upwards near the level of 20, which is conditional border of the oversold area. The indicator’s readings reflect the possibility of correctional growth development in the short or very short term.
Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2537, 1.2597.
Support levels: 1.2447, 1.2414, 1.2300, 1.2238.

Trading tips

Open long positions after the breakout of the levels of 1.2500 or 1.2537 with the targets at 1.2600–1.2650. Stop loss is 1.2450–1.2470. Implementation period: 2 days.
The reversal near the current levels and the breakdown of the levels 1.2447 or 1.2414 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.2300. Stop loss is not further than 1.2500. Implementation period: 2–3 days.


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liteForex GBP/USD: the pound is under pressure

Current trend

The British currency showed a fall against US dollar as a result of trading on Monday, October 16, moving away from local maximums updated last Friday. The reason for negative dynamics were new concerns about Brexit negotiations. Its participants failed to reach visible results despite 5 rounds of talks.
Moreover, the pound was under pressure from expectations about the release of the data on consumer inflation from the UK and Eurozone on Tueday. The block of British statistics is due at 10:30 (GMT+2), while European data will become available at 12:00 (GMT+2). Annual consumer prices growth rate in the UK is expected to reach 3.0% in September. MoM current growth rate is likely to considerably slow down from +0.6% to +0.3%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart are developing downward dynamics gradually reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is growing, preserving a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic has reversed downwards near its maximum values.
Resistance levels: 1.3290, 1.3336, 1.3400, 1.3454.
Support levels: 1.3218, 1.3148, 1.3118, 1.3025.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the levels of  1.3290, 1.3300 with targets at 1.3400, 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3240. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
The development of corrective dynamics with a breakdown of the level of  1.3218 may be a signal for further sales with targets at 1.3118, 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.3270. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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liteForex EUR/USD: trend break or the end of correction

Current trend

Euro continues to decrease against USD in view of growing demand for the latter. The dollar received considerable support in view of positive comments by the Fed's representatives and the head. They all view the prospects of US economy development as promising and expect to keep the targets of further monetary policy tightening.

Moreover, the demand for USD continued to grow due to the beneficial fundamental background. During recent two trading weeks strong data on the labor market, retail sales, and main indexes were released. All these factors had a considerable impact on the rate of EUR/USD which has dropped by almost 150 points since October 12. Today the downward impulse got stronger, and the pair tested the local minimum of 1.1730 once again but failed to break through it.
An additional catalyst for the fall of the European currency was the comments by Mario Draghi. He pointed out that to restore the Eurozone economy still needed considerable fiscal stimulation.


Support and resistance

European currency against USD remains in the long-term upward tendency, therefore it is too early to speak about the break of the trend. From the current level the pair may grow to the levels of 1.1785, 1.1800. In case they are broken through, the pair may return to the local maximum of October at 1.1880. An alternative scenario will be breaking through the level of 1.1730 and dropping to 1.1600, 1.1575.
Support levels: 1.1730, 1.1715, 1.1665, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1550, 1.1500.
Resistance levels: 1.1775, 1.1785, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1860, 1.1880, 1.1900, 1.1925.


Trading tips

In this situation it is reasonable to open long positions with target at 1.1880 and stop-loss at 1.1700. At the same time, one may open short positions below the level of 1.1715 with target at 1.1600.

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liteForex AUD/USD: the pair is trading in both directions

Current trend

Australian dollar showed growth during the morning session on October 19, having received support from optimistic macroeconomic releases from Australia. Along with that, after the release of the data from China investors corrected a number of positions, and the instrument lost almost all of its “bullish” advantages.

The level of unemployment in Australia in September dropped from 5.6% to 5.5% which was a pleasant surprise as investors did not wait for any changes at all. At the same time the level of employment in September grew by 19.8K after growth by 50.0K last month. Analysts expected employment to increase by 15.0K workplaces.

The data from China showed an expected slowdown in the growth of GDP in YoY terms. In Q3 2017 GDP grew by 6.8% after increase by 6.9% in the previous period. QoQ the growth of the Chinese economy remained on the same level of +1.7%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in the D1 chart show flat dynamics. The price range is slightly widening from above. MACD indicator is growing preserving a moderate buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows almost no reaction to the instrument's growth attempts this week and preserves a quite stable downward direction.

Resistance levels: 0.7873, 0.7900, 0.7937, 0.7978.
Support levels: 0.7832, 0.7807, 0.7769, 0.7731.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking out the levels of 0.7873 or 0.7900 with targets at 0.7978, 0.8000 and stop-loss at 0.7832, 0.7850. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

Breaking down the level of 0.7807 may be a signal for further sales with targets at 0.7731, 0.7700 and stop-loss at 0.7850. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.


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liteForex XAU/USD: gold is growing

Current trend

The price of gold grew considerably yesterday breaking three “bearish” sessions in a row and moving away from local minimums since October 9. The reason for the occurrence of “bullish” dynamics was the growth of corrective tendencies in the market that made the investors escape risks. Besides geopolitical risks, investors paid attention to the end of rally in the world stock markets that moved away from record-setting maximums.

USD, in turn, remained under the pressure of uncertainty around the Fed, but received support after the Senate approved of the draft budget for 2018 giving Trump administration an ability to pass the tax reform.

During the morning session on October 20 the pair is showing active “bearish” dynamics and USD is waiting for the release of the data on sales in the secondary housing market and the speech by the FOMC member Loretta Mester at 20:00 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show flat dynamics. The price range is actively narrowing from below. MACD indicator is showing uncertain dynamics near the zero mark. Stochastic has reversed horizontally near the level of 20.

Resistance levels: 1290.67, 1298.33, 1305.65.
Support levels: 1281.85, 1276.26, 1266.01, 1260.25.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakthrough of the level of 1290.67 with target at 1305.65 and stop-loss at 1284.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

A breakdown of the level of 1276.26 may be a signal for resuming sales in the short term with target at 1266.01 and stop-loss at 1282.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

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liteForex GBP/USD: the pair is uncertain

Current trend

Last week the pair dropped to 1.3180 (Murrey level [4/8]) where it currently remains. Generally, the market is uncertain before the meeting of the Bank of England scheduled for the next week. Right now the regulator is in a difficult situation: it needs to solve the problem of high inflation and at the same time deal with low salaries that push down the citizens' purchasing capacity. Investors wait for the Bank of England to increase the interest rate and are not ready to be active yet.

Ongoing Brexit negotiations remain a negative background for the British currency. The delay causes more and more concerns among businesses in the UK. According to BBC, major British business structures including the Institute of Directors (IoD) and the  Conference of British Industry (CBI) wrote a letter to Minister David Davis asking him to regulate the issues in question as quickly as possible. Otherwise the country may lose a considerable share of workplaces and investments. The process is already on: for example,  Goldman Sachs started to reduce the staffing of its London representative office and to increase it in Frankfurt.

Support and resistance

Technically in the D1 chart the price is near the key level of 1.3180 (Murrey [4/8]). It breaks the main trading area into two halves showing market uncertainty. Indicators don't give a clear signal: the volume of MACD histogram is minor, and Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards. The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3180 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands may lead to further growth to 1.3305 (Murrey [5/8]) and1.3427 (Murrey [6/8]). Otherwise the targets of the decrease will be 1.3060 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.2940 (Murrey [2/8]).

Support levels: 1.3060, 1.2940, 1.2817.
Resistance levels: 1.3180, 1.3300, 1.3427.

Trading tips

In the current situation short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3135 with targets at 1.3060, 1.2940 and stop-loss at 1.3190. Long positions with targets at 1.3305 and 1.3427 may be opened from the level of 1.3245. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3200.

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liteForex USD/JPY: yen in under pressure or poor PMI data

Current trend

The pair began the week with the upward gap (to the area of 114.00) due to the strong victory of Liberal Democratic Japan party, leading by Shinzō Abe, in the parliamentary elections, which means that the ultra soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will be developing for a long time. In addition, the market is alerted that Abe plans to increase the national consuming tax from 8% to 10% to increase the social spending. The decision can harm the retail sales, as the growth of tax inevitably affects the consumer spending negatively. When the tax was increased in 2014 in the previous time, the economy entered a recession, so the investors fear the same effect will happen this time.

During Monday the price was corrected of 113.30, but now is growing again. Yen is under pressure of poor PMI data. Instead of expected growth in October the indicator decreased from 52.9 to 52.5 points. The pair can grow, if the US Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Service PMI, which will be published today, are strong.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is testing the level of 113.67 (Murray [7/8]) and after the consolidation above it can grow to the levels of 114.06 (Murray [8/8]) and 114.45 (Murray [+1/8]). The indicators reflect the growth development, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Stochastic is reversing upwards near the oversold area. However if US PMI data disappoint the investors, the correction to the level of 112.50 (key Murray [4/8], lower border of Bollinger Bands) can develop.

Resistance levels: 113.67, 114.06, 114.45, 114.85.
Support levels: 113.28, 112.90, 112.50.

Trading tips

It’s better to open long positions above the level of 113.67 with the targets at 114.06, 114.45 and stop loss at 113.35.

The consolidation of the price below the level of 113.28 or reversal around 114.06 will make short positions with the targets at 112.90 and 112.50 relevant. Stop losses are near the levels of 113.60 and 114.40 correspondingly.

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liteForex FDAX: Murrey analysis

Current trend

In the D1 chart the price consolidated around 12968.8 ([7/8]). Investors are waiting for the results of tomorrow's ECB meeting.
In case the level of 13125.0 (main resistance [8/8]) which is key for the “bulls” is broken through, the price may rise to 13281.3 ([+1/8]) and 13437.5 ([+2/8]). Otherwise the price may experience serious correction to the levels of 12812.5 ([6/8]) and 12500.0 ([4/8]). In the medium term the growth of the price is possible (which is confirmed by the reversal of Stochastic upwards), but it should be considered with caution. The level of 13125.0 represents serious resistance. Moreover, the price is around year maximums which may lead to correction.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 12968.8 ([7/8] stop, reversal), 12812.5 ([6/8] rotation, reversal), 12656.3 ([5/8] upper part of the channel), 12500.0 ([4/8] resistance, support).

Resistance levels: 13125.0 ([8/8] main resistance), 13281.3 ([+1/8] extreme resistance), 13437.5 ([+2/8] final resistance).

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened after the price consolidates below 12968.8 with targets at 12812.5, 12500.0 and stop-loss at 13080.0.
Long positions may be opened only after the price consolidates above 13125.0 with targets at 13281.3, 13437.5 and stop-loss at 13000.0.


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liteForex GBP/USD: the pair is being corrected

Current trend

Yesterday's data on the British GDP pushed the pair to 2-week maximums at 1.3275.

The growth of the indicators from 0.3% to 0.4% in Q3 2017 gave investors new hope for the first increase of the interest rate by the Bank of England since 2007. The growth of inflation (currently the rate is 3.0%) has long been a concern for the British central bank. Mark Carney said about the possibility of reduction of monetary stimulae already in June. However, the solution has been postponed since then, predominantly due to low salary growth rate in the country which could have influenced the volume of GDP. Now there are no obvious reasons to postpone the increase of the rate. However, the structure of British economic growth is uncertain. In Q3 it was reached mainly due to the sectors of services, trade and IT. Industrial sector showed less growth, and construction one decreased by 0.7%.

Support and resistance

Currently the price has been corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands to the level of 1.3200 and may further move to the waiting mode until the data on the US GDP in Q3 2017 is released tomorrow. However, if the price consolidated below 1.3180 (Fibo correction 23.6%) it may continue to decrease to 1.3110 (lower line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3030 (gathering of Fibo corrections). A key level for the “bulls” is tomorrow's maximums area at 1.3270 (Fibo correction 23.6%). In case it is broken out growth may resume to 1.3350 (Fibo correction 50.0%) and 1.3415 (Fibo correction 61.8%).

Support levels: 1.3180, 1.3110, 1.3030.
Resistance levels: 1.3120, 1.3340, 1.3415.

Trading tips

In the current situation long positions may be opened above the level of 1.3270 with targets at 1.3340, 1.3415 and stop-loss at 1.3230.

The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3180 may lead to reduction to the area of 1.3110 and 1.3030. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3220.

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liteForex GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD grew and almost reached the middle line of Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci corrections around 1.3175.

This week the key events for the instrument are the meeting of Fed and of Bank of England. The US regulator is not expected to change the monetary policy. However, the Bank of England can increase the interest rate, but not for sure. On the one hand, the growth of GDP and inflation in the third quarter makes the regulator to cut the monetary stimulation. On the other hand, a number of BOE officials, such as Jon Cunliffe from, declare the total state of the UK economy insufficient for the interest rate increase.

The question is open, and any of the BOE decisions will cause significant price movement.

Support and resistance

Technically the price reached the level of 1.3175 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci correction 23.6%). If the price is set above this level the further movement to the area of 1.3270 (correction 38.2%) is possible. In case of rebound at the level of 1.3175 the fall to the level of 1.3100 and further to October lows at the area of 1.3030 is possible.
Technical indicators readings are mixed. Stochastic has entered the overbought area, which can reflect the possibility of the reversal. On the other hand, MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 1.3175, 1.3270, 1.3340.
Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2950.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.3140 with the targets at 1.3100, 1.3030 and stop loss at 1.3180.
The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3175 will make long positions relevant with the targets at 1.3270, 1.3340 and stop loss at 1.3155.

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liteForex EUR/USD: the market is waiting for tomorrow’s PMI and Fed’s meeting

Current trend

Today the pair was slowly being corrected from the level of 1.1657 (Murray [3/8]), euro is under pressure of poor inflation data. In October the preliminary Consumer Price Index decreased from 1.5% to 1.4%, and Core Index decreased from 1.3% to 1.1%. However, the correction is not strong due to the positive EU GDP data. In the third quarter the index grew from 2.3% to 2.5% YoY.

The market positively reacted to Donald Trump’s decision to make Jerome Powell the new head of Fed, according to Reuters and CNN. Unlike Janet Yellen, who was Professor of Economics, Powell was an investment banker, which makes the investors to hope that he will soften Dodd–Frank Consumer Protection Act, passed in 2010 and restricted the bank trading in the stock market significantly.

Support and resistance

Since Monday the price is trading within the range of 1.1657 (Murray [3/8]) and 1.1596 (Murray [2/8]). It can stay within the range until October USA manufacturing PMI publication and Fed’s meeting results (the interest rate is not expected to be risen. After the breakout of the level of 1.1657 the price can return within the main channel of 1.1790–1.1657. The key level for the “bears” is 1.1596 (Murray [2/8]), after the breakdown the correction can develop to the main support level at Murray 1.1475 ([0/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1780.
Support levels: 1.1596, 1.1535, 1.1475.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1718, 1.1779 and stop loss at 1.1625.
The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1596 can lead to the fall to the levels of 1.1535 and 1.1475. Stop loss is near the level of 1.1630.

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liteForex AUD/USD: Australian dollar returned to reduction

Current trend

Today AUD is reducing against US dollar moving away from local maximums updated yesterday. The instrument is under pressure from not so optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Australian and expected strong labor market releases from the USA at 14:30 (GMT+2).

AiG PMI dropped from 52.1 to 51.4 points in September which was worse that expected by the analysts. The volumes of retail sales in September remained on zero level after reduction by 0.5% MoM in August. Experts hopes the indicator would grow by 0.4%.
US dollar receives support from the data on jobless claims published yesterday. They were interesting for the investors in view of the upcoming report on the labor market. The number of initial claims during the week that ended on October 27, dropped from 234K to 229K against the expected growth to 235K.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate reduction. The price range is narrowing. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic also preserves a stable upward direction but is approaching the level of 80.
Resistance levels: 0.7697, 0.7717, 0.7731, 0.7769.
Support levels: 0.7664, 0.7623, 0.7586.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7700 with targets at 0.7750, 0.7769 or 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7664. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down the level of 0.7664 may give the “bears” a way to 0.7600 or 0.7580 with stop-loss at 0.7700. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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liteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes have been growing for the third trading session in a row. Within a day Brent oil gained 3.12% and rose to 64.05 (a 28-month maximum).
Oil prices are supported by several factors. First of all, it is the restoration of supply and demand balance in the oil market in view of fulfillment of production reduction obligations by OPEC states. This was announced by the former OPEC Secretary General Rene Ortiz. Oil market is also supported by the new stage of tension in the Middle East. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen is developing, and on Saturday Yemen launched a missile at Riyadh.
Today market players are waiting for initial API data on weekly changes in US oil stocks (23:30 GMT+2). If the API report shows serious reduction of oil stocks, the rate of Brent may receive additional support and update its maximums. Official data by the US Department of Energy on oil stocks and the level of production will be released tomorrow (17:30 GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show the preservation of the upward trend. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively growing in the positive zone forming a buy signal. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards.
Support levels: 63.59, 62.40, 61.75.
Resistance levels: 64.30, 65.00, 66.00.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 64.30 with target at 65.00-66.00 and stop-loss at 63.80.
Sell positions should be opened below the level of 63.59 with target at 62.40 and stop-loss at 63.90.

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liteForex GBP/USD: Patrick Harker pushed the pair downwards

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD pair entered the channel 1.3183 (Murray [4/8])–1.3122 (Murray [3/8]).

On Tuesday the price was affected by controversial factors. Pound was under the pressure of poor UK BRC Retail Sales data. In October the index decreased by 1.0% due to clothing sales. British retailers fear that the high inflation level (3.0%) can affect the soon Christmas sales.

British currency was supported by the Trade low data publications. The low will be implemented after the end of Brexit, and according to it the Government plans to make a number of contracts with the key trading EU, US and Australian partners, and help the companies which have contracts with foreign governments.
Today the price went down after the Philadelphia Fed’ head Patrick Harker commentaries, who noted that Fed didn’t see any reasons not to increase the interest rate on December meeting, and to increase the rate gradually next year, if the inflation allowed it.

Support and resistance

The pair is testing the lower border of the range 1.3122 (Murray [3/8]) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The consolidation of the price below will let the price fall to the levels of 1.3061 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.3000 (Murray [1/8]). Otherwise the price can return to the center resistance level of 1.3183 (Murray [4/8]), but it can significantly grow to the levels of 1.3245 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.3305 (Murray [6/8]) only after the breakout of this level. According to reversed downwards Stochastic, the fall is possible.

Resistance levels: 1.3183, 1.3244, 1.3305.
Support levels: 1.3122, 1.3061, 1.3000.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.3122 with the targets at 1.3061 and 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.3140.
The rebound of the price from the level of 1.3122 will make short term long positions actual with the target at 1.3183 and further increase of the long positions volumes to the levels of 1.3244 and 1.3305. Stop loss is 1.3090.

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liteForex USD/CAD: the pair’s dynamics is flat

Current trend

Yesterday USD was falling against Canadian currency, being under pressure after positive Canadian Building dynamics statistics publication. Housing Starts index grew by 222.8K in October against the corresponding month of 2016, while analysts expected the growth only to 210.0K. Building Permits grew by 3.8% MoM in September after the fall by 5.1% MoM in August, while experts suggested the fall by 0.2% MoM.
Today the pair is insignificantly growing, waiting for the new rivers to appear on the market. There is no key US and Canadian macroeconomic release expected today, so the volatility will stay low. September New Housing Price Index is due at 15:30 (GMT+2) in Canada. Initial Jobless Claims publication is due at the same time in the USA.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the mixed dynamics appearance with low activity level. It’s better to use channel trading strategy.
MACD still keeps steady downward trend and sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s possible to keep current short positions, but not to open new ones.
Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards, reflecting that the pair is oversold in the short or very short term. It’s better to wait for the confirmation of this “bullish” signal.
Resistance levels: 1.2751, 1.2800, 1.2858, 1.2915.
Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2639, 1.2597, 1.2537.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal at the level of 1.2700 and breakout of the level of 1.2751 with the targets at 1.2858 or 1.2900. Stop loss is 1.2700. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

The steady breakdown 1.2700 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.2600. Stop loss is 1.2751. Implementation period: 2 days.

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liteForex USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

Current trend

On the D1 chart the price was corrected from the level of 114.06 ([+1/8]) and by now has dropped to the middle line of Bollinger Bands (113.45) where it is fixed but yet unstable. The consolidation of the price below this level will open the way for further reduction to 112.50 ([8/8], lower line of Bollinger Bands), 111.70 (September and October minimums) and 110.93 ([7/8]). Otherwise the price may return to 114.06 ([+1/8]) and 114.64 ([7/8] in H4). Technical indicators show downward movement: Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone. Generally, the continuation of the fall seems more likely due to the values of indicators and the distance between the chart and timeline.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 113.45 (medium line of Bollinger Bands), 112.50 ([8/8]), 111.70 (autumn minimums), 110.93 ([7/8]).
Resistance levels: 114.06 ([+1/8]), 114.64 ([7/8] in H4), 115.62 ([+2/8]).

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions seem more relevant but they should be opened only if the price consolidates below 113.45 with targets at 112.50, 111.70 and stop-loss at 113.70.
Long positions should be opened above 114.06 with targets at 114.64, 115.62 and stop-loss at 113.70.

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liteForex XAU/USD: Murrey analysis

Current trend

On the D1 chart the price failed to consolidate above the level of 1281.25 ([2/8]) and has entered the range of 1281.25 ([2/8])-1265.63 ([1/8]) in which it has been trading for over a week. According to Stochastic that has reversed downwards, in the near future the price may drop to 1265.63 ([1/8]) once again and further go down to 1250.00 ([0/8]). Moreover, the price is under pressure from the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The key level for the “bulls” seems to be 1281.25. In case the price consolidates above it, growth may continue to the border of the channel at 1296.88 ([3/8]) and further to the central level at 1312.50 ([4/8]).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1265.63 ([1/8]), 1250.00 ([0/8]), 1234.38 ([-1/8]).
Resistance levels: 1281.25 ([2/8]), 1296.88 ([3/8]), 1312.50 ([4/8]).

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions seem more relevant. They should be opened at the current price with targets at 1265.63, 1250.00 and stop-loss at 1285.00.
Long positions should be opened if the price consolidates above 1281.25 with targets at 1296.88, 1312.50 and stop-loss at 1280.00.

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liteForex NZD/USD: Murray analysis

Current trend

On the daily chart the price rebounded from the level of 0.6958 ([2/8]) and is tending to the level of 0.6835 ([0/8]), which it has tested in the end of October already. The level was unsuccessfully tested this May, too, so it is quite strong. After the breakdown of it the price can fall to the levels of 0.6775 ([–1/8]) and 0.6714 ([–2/8]), which is confirmed by Stochastic, which is pointed downwards. However, the reversal and breakout of the middle line of Bollinger Bands and the level of 0.6958 ([2/8]) is not excluded, as the price is reaching the lower border of Bollinger Bands. In this case the price can grow to the levels of 0.7020 ([3/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]) and 0.7141 ([5/8]).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.6835 ([0/8]), 0.6775 ([–1/8]), 0.6714 ([–2/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.6958 ([2/8]), 0.7020 ([3/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]), 0.7141 ([5/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal of the price around 0.6835 or above the level of 0.6958 with the targets at 0.7020 and 0.7080 and stop loss at 0.6800 and 0.6900.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.6775 with the targets at 0.6714, 0.6670 and stop loss at 0.6810.

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liteForex AUD/USD: under the pressure of Chinese data

Current trend

This week the pair is going down and is now trading around 0.7600. AUD is under the pressure of poor Chinese data: October Retail Sales indicator fell from 10.3% to 10.0% and Industrial production one decreased from 6.6% to 6.2%. Chinese problems can significantly affect Australian economy negatively in long term. China consumes more than third of Australian export, a large part of it is iron ore. More than a half of it and iron product have been using in Chinese building market, which is slowing now. This fact has led to cut of surplus production capacities, which can affect Australian producers negatively.
Today US October Inflation data and Retail Sales publication can cause great volatility of the price. Consumer Price Index can fall from 2.2% to 2.0%, and after September growth by 1.6% Retail Sales data can be 0.0%. In this case the pair can enter the upward correction.

Support and resistance

The key “bearish” level is at 0.7568 (Murray [0/8]). The breakout will let the price fall to the area of 0.7507 (Murray [–2/8]). Stochastic’s attempt to reverse near the oversold area reflects the possibility of the upward correction. However, long positions with the targets at 0.7690 (Murray [4/8]), 0.7720 (Murray [5/8]) will become relevant only after the price is set above the level of 0.7630 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands).

Resistance levels: 0.7630, 0.7690, 0.7720.
Support levels: 0.7568, 0.7507.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7568 with the target at 0.7507 and stop loss at 0.7600.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7630 with the targets at 0.7690, 0.7720 and stop loss at 0.7600.

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EUR/USD: inflation is pushing the pair downwards

Current trend

On Wednesday the pair started correction from the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8] for D1). USD was supported by positive data on inflation in the USA. Basic CPI that the Fed uses to make decisions on changes in the interest rate, grew by 1.8% (after remaining on the level of 1.7% for five months). This gave the investors confidence that the regulator would increase the interest rate during its December meeting.
Today’s inflation statistics from Eurozone was negative for euro. CPI remained on the level of 1.4% and its basic variant dropped from 1.1% to 0.9%. Moreover, the European currency is under pressure from the data that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has problems forming the new German government.

Support and resistance

Currently the price is moving towards the level of 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8] for D1) and may well reach it if today’s data on US industrial output prove to be strong (the indicator is expected to grow from 0.3% to 0.5%). Breaking down the level of 1.1718 will open the way for further decrease to 1.1657 (Murrey level [3/8] for Н4) and 1.1596 ([-1/8] for D1). One may speak about considerable growth after the price breaks out the level of 1.1840. In this case the targets of the “bulls” will be 1.1900 (Murrey level [7/8] for H4) and 1.1962 ([2/8] for D1). Technical indicators show opposite signals. Stochastic is leaving the overbought area forming a sell signal. MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone and form a buy signal.

Support levels: 1.1718, 1.1657, 1.1596.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened at the current price with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1790.
Long positions may be opened above 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop-loss 1.1800.

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NZD/USD: downward impulse maintains

Current trend

New Zealand Currency is significantly falling against the US dollar after the interest rate decision and RBNZ Statement upon the maintenance of the mild monetary policy in the long term.
In the middle of the last week in RBNZ statement was claimed that the key interest rate will stay on the same level, so the monetary policy perspectives are unclear. It was also noted, that low rate of the national currency is necessary to increase the inflation rate.
Today the pair rapidly went down, breaking few of the key support levels. Poor Business NZ PMI, Producer Price Index – Input and Output data affected the pair negatively. The pair has lost 100 points in a few hours, and downward momentum maintains.
As there is lack of US key releases in the economical calendar, the pair will move according to the trading moods.

Support and resistance

The pair will fall to the key levels of 0.6770, 0.6680, 0.6575. Insignificant upward correction at the level of 0.6770 with the target at 0.6820 is possible, but after it the pair will decrease further. Technical indicators confirms the forecast, MACD reflects the growth of short positions volumes, Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards.

Resistance levels: 0.6820, 0.6875, 0.6920, 0.6975, 0.7010, 0.7050.
Support levels: 0.6770, 0.6730, 0.6680, 0.6575, 0.6500.

Trading tips

It’s better to increase the volume of short positions at the current level with the targets at 0.6770, 0.6680, 0.6575 and stop loss at 0.6860

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