USD/JPY: technical analysis

USD/JPY, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is about to test its longer MA having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

USD/JPY, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is growing along the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA13, EMA65 and EMA130 but below the SMA200, all are horizontal. The RSI is approaching the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is testing its strong resistance.

Key levels

Support levels: 114.42 (local lows), 113.97 (local lows), 112.54 (January lows).
Resistance levels: 115.57 (local highs), 116.00 (2015 lows), 118.20 (January highs).

Trading tips

The pair might be forming a “flag” pattern. There is a chance of a downward rebound from its upper border while its breakout could lead to a retest of January highs.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 115.57 with targets at 114.42, 113.97, 112.54 and stop-loss at 116.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 116.00 with the target at 118.20 and stop-loss at 115.57.

WTI Crude Oil: technical analysis

WTI Crude Oil, D1

On the daily chart the price is lowering, broken the support level formed by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a sell signal, its volumes are slightly decreasing. The Stochastic is in the neutral zone, pointed downwards.

WTI Crude Oil, H4

On the 4-hour chart the price is lowering towards the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. If the channel, formed by its borders, widens, the downward dynamics can develop further. The MACD histogram is near the zero line, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line downwards, after which the signal to open short positions will be received. The Stochastic is crossing the neutral zone and the oversold zone border downwards, forming a buy signal.

Key levels

Support levels: 52.50, 52.20, 51.70.
Resistance levels: 53.00, 53.50, 54.10, 54.50, 55.00.

Trading scenario

According to the technical indicators, it’s better to open short positions from the level of 52.50 with the target at 52.00, 51.70. Stop loss is at 52.80. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Open long positions at the level of 53.00 with the target at 53.50 and stop loss at 52.70. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair grew against the poor speech of the USA FRS. The investors expected to get more specific information concerning the USA interest rate rise, as in the previous meeting the FRS declared the intention to increase the rate triple in the year in the USA economy is in a satisfactory state. The FRS said that the employment rate growth is good and there are positive trends in the consumers’ mood, however the inflation is still low and the business investments are poor. The interest rate was kept on the same level of 0.75%. There is no clear signal about the next interest rate rise schedule, which disappointed the traders.
In this situation during the yesterday trading session the pair grew from the minimumа at the level of 1.0731 to 1.0789. In the morning trading session the pair continues to grow.

Today the traders are waiting for the ECB President Draghi's Speech and the USA weekly Initial Jobless Claims data.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.0774, 1.0731, 1.0697, 1.0657.
Resistance levels: 1.0817, 1.0872, 1.0924, 1.0955.

Trading scenario

On the 4-hour chart the Bollinger Bands indicator are pointed sideways, reflection the development of the upward trend. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are rising, forming a buy signal.
Open long positions is the price is set above the level of 1.0817 with the target at 1.0872 and stop loss at 1.0787.
Open short positions if the price is set below the level of 1.0731 with the target at 1.0697, 1.0657 and stop loss at 1.0757.

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Gold prices are growing against the mixed USA employment data, published on Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls value grew to 227K in January from 157K in the previous month. The unemployment rate grew to 4.8% in January from 4.7% in the previous month. The mixed employment data and the uncertainty of the Trump’s economical policy press the USD, so the gold price could reach the level of 1225.17, but didn’t manage to consolidate above this level. Today there are no significant macroeconomical releases to influence the pair, so the correction to the level of 1215.17 with the fixing of the profit of the long positions is possible.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1216.71, 1210.18, 1202.92.
Resistance levels: 1225.17, 1233.12, 1240.00.

Trading scenario

On the 4-hour chart the Bollinger Bands indicator is pointed upwards, reflecting the activity of the buyers. Still the correction to the middle line (1215.17) is possible, as the price broke the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator.
The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its’ volumes are rising, reflecting the development of the upward trend.

The breakout at 1225.17 will signal the continuation of the growth. In this case open long positions above the level of 1225.17 with the target at 1233.12 and stop loss at 1223.17.
Open short positions below the level of 1215.17 with the target at 1210.18 and stop loss at 1217.00.

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The AUD is trading in the upward trend against the USD. The pair has grown by more than 500 points and reached the key resistance level of 0.7700 in a month. The pair is moving due to the significant lowering of the USD against the negative USD fundamental background. During the last month the poor GDP, employment and key indices data were published. The Australia data made a positive impact on the pair.

In the beginning of the week there was a downward correction to the lower border of the upward trend at 0.7610, but now it is consolidating above this level. Today the volatility lowered and the AUD is trading within the narrow sideway channel 0.7610-0.7645. In the short term the pair will either grow to the local maxima or will form a reversal figure. This week the USA employment data and the USA building sector data are worth attention.

Support and resistance

Technical analysis and the USA and Australia fundamental background show the potential of movement to the levels of 0.7700, 0.7780, 0.7820. The alternative is a consolidation of the pair in the sideway trend 0.7700-0.7610 with the further reversal. After the last FRS meeting its members has spoken a lot about the interest rate rising in March, which can affect the investors’ moods. The lowering of the demand on the USD pressures the pair and can led it to the deeper correction. The technical indicators are giving a strong sell signal, the MACD keeps high volumes of the long positions, the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart is set near the local maximum at the level of 0.7820.
Support levels: 0.7610, 0.7545, 0.7510, 0.7480, 0.7430, 0.7400, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7160.
Resistance levels: 0.7645, 0.7700, 0.7780, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current level with the target at 0.7820 and short stop loss is at 0.7580, keeping in mind the growth from the lower border of the upward channel.

GBP/USD: the pair is in a state of equilibrium

Current trend
On Thursday, the pair lost about a hundred points, reaching the middle line of Bollinger bands at 1.2500. Strengthening of the dollar was due to the Trump’s intention to present his proposals for tax reform in the near future. During the election campaign, he has already promised to reduce the tax burden on the American middle class and businesses as well as to reduce the rate of income tax and change the scale of progressive taxation. Now the market is waiting for the promised performance.

At the same time, yesterday the Head of the Bank of England Mark Carney didn’t mentioned monetary policy in his speech and could not provide support for the pound. Today's strong data on industrial production in the UK in December (+2.1% MoM and +4.0% YoY) also couldn’t help the British currency. Despite the fact that the British economy copes well with the consequences of Brexit, the pound has been falling since mid-January.

Support and resistance
From a technical point of view, the level of 1.2500 (middle line of Bollinger bands) is still the key level. Technical indicators do not give a clear picture: Stochastic turns up from the oversold zone, MACD histogram has low volumes, and the Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. Under these conditions, important level for the "bulls" would be 1.2530 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%), breakout of which would allow the price to go up to the upper boundary of the descending channel (1.2600), and further, to 1.2690. After consolidation below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, the pair may continue to decrease to the levels of 1.2526 (38.2% correction) and 1.2345 (50.0% correction).
Support levels: 1.2426, 1.2345 and 1.2265.
Resistance levels: 1.2530, 1.2600 and 1.2690.

Trading tips
In this situation, long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2530 with the targets at 1.2600 and 1.2690 and stop loss at 1.2500. At the level of 1.2475 short positions would become relevant with the targets at 1.2426 and 1.2345 and stop loss at 1.2505.

NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During the last week the pair was lowering and lost about a half of the 2 months growth (more than 200 points). The decrease is a result of many factors. The first is the RBNZ decision to keep the interest rate on the same level of 1.75%, which is minimal for last 5 years. The lowering of the rate affects the national currency negatively. The second are the positive USD data: Initial Jobless Claims, which is better than expected, the Import Price Index (much better than the previous value and the growth of the Oil Rig Count, which reflects the increase in oil production, oil rice lowering and the growth of the USD.

Yesterday and today the price continues to test the strong and important level 0.7170, the cluster of 38% and 50% Fibonacci from the whole range of the price movement during the last 3 years and the last falling wave. The reaction to this level will determine the price dynamic in the nearest perspective.
Today the important issues are the USA Producer Price Index (expected to be lower than the previous value, which is negative) and Fed's Yellen Speech, which can affect the market greatly.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.7485, 07390, 0.7340, 0.7250.
Support levels: 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7170.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7250, 0.7340, stop loss is at 0.7130.
Alternative scenario: in case of a downward breakout at 0.7170 open short positions with the target at 0.7100, 0.7050, stop loss is at 0.7220.

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Yesterday, gold was strengthened after the speech by Janet Yellen. In her speech, the head of the American regulator stressed that the next tightening of monetary policy depends directly on the statistics of labor market and real estate, as well as on the growth rate of inflation in the United States. At the same time Yellen highlighted the opinion of most members of the committee that delay of the interest rates raise would be unwise.

In addition, precious metals received support from the news of resignation of Michael Flynn. The adviser of US President for National Security admitted that he discussed the sanctions against Moscow with Russian ambassador before Trump entered the office. This news may serve as growth driver for XAU/USD in the medium term, as now, market participants are afraid of failure of Trump's plans to reduce the tax burden and to increase budget expenditures.
Today traders will pay attention to the publication of macroeconomic statistics on the US real estate, as well as on the US labor market. If both indicators will be positive for the US economy, the Fed will receive a strong signal to raise interest rates, which would support the dollar.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trying to gain a foothold above the level of 1236.00. The indicator "Bollinger Bands" is directed upwards, and the price range continues to expand, reflecting the continuation of the current trend. Histogram of MACD is in the positive zone, giving a buy signal. Stochastic is approaching the overbought area.

Support levels: 1226.07, 1217.71, 1206.37, 1195.62.
Resistance levels: 1236.66, 1247.57, 1258.32.

Trading tips
Long positions should be opened at the current price with the targets at 1240.70, 1244.30 and stop loss at the level of 1230.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Short positions can be set at the level of 1230.50 with take profit at 1219.00 and stop loss at 1237.80. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

EUR/TRY: technical analysis

EUR/TRY, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that start turning sideways. The RSI is testing its most recent support, and thus may be forming a “double bottom” reverse formation. The Composite begins diverging with the price.

EUR/TRY, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that turned down. The RSI is growing having broken out its longer MA. The Composite is about to test its longer MA as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 3.8330 (local lows), 3.8081 (December 2016 highs), 3.7913 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
Resistance levels: 3.9205 (local highs), 3.9547 (local highs), 4.0110 (local highs).

Trading tips

There is a chance of an upward reverse in the price.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 3.9205 with targets at 3.9547, 4.0110 and stop-loss at 3.9015. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 3.8330 with targets at 3.8081, 3.7913 and stop-loss at 3.8454. Validity – 3-5 days.

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

The USD/JPY pair was growing during the trade session on Tuesday. This was caused by hawkish comments of some FRS officials. US stocks were growing too, which influenced dollar rate positively, putting pressure on the yen. The values of Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit PMI Composite turned out to be lower than expected. Nevertheless, the index values above 50 points show the overall economy growth, strengthening the US dollar.

The pinnacle event of the week is release of FOMC meeting minutes. During the release, the market would probably experience high volatility.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart, the pair was corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The MACD histogram is near zero line and has minimum volume, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line from below, which will be a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in neutral zone, near the oversold zone. If this border is crossed, this will be a signal to buy.
Support levels: 113.00, 112.75, 112.30, 112.00, 111.65.
Resistance levels: 113.50, 113.88, 114.41, 115.00, 115.50.

Trading tips

Long positions with targets at 113.80 and stop-loss at 112.80 may be opened at the current price.
Short positions could be opened at the level of 112.80 with targets at 112.30 and stop-loss at 113.15.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the XAU/USD pair rose to a level of 1250.85, updating 4-month maximum, due to the release of weak US unemployment data. The number of initial claims month increased from 238K to 244K. The negative statistics on the labor market significantly reduces the likelihood of interest rate hike at the March meeting of the Fed. Thus, the market expectation regarding the imminent tightening of monetary policy is assessed as very low, which contributes to the strengthening of the precious metals.

Today traders are waiting for the stats on new home sales in the US. The Head of the Fed has stated that the statistics on sales of new homes was an important element in the decision on the interest rate.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the pair is approaching the upper boundary of "Bollinger Bands" from below. Indicator is directed upwards, and the price range is narrow, indicating a high probability of change of the current trend. Histogram of MACD is in the positive zone, maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic is going to enter the overbought zone.

Support levels: 1247.36, 1235.44, 1229.35, 1216.16.
Resistance levels: 1256.53, 1264.87, 1272.49.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened at the level of 1254.00 with the targets at 1243.00 and a stop-loss at the level of 1257.10. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1257.50 with targets at 1264.70 and a stop-loss at the level of 1252.50. Implementation period: 1-2 days.