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eas-guide:monte-carlo

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eas-guide:monte-carlo [2018/01/09 12:10] – yavoreas-guide:monte-carlo [2018/01/09 12:48] – yavor
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-Monte Carlo is the best tool for testing the strategy robustness. When you create a strategy, you see its backtest statistics. However, there is a problem - the strategy might be over-optimized (a.k.a curve-fitted). The goal of the Monte Carlo tool is to verify that the strategy is not over-optimized. This tool allows you to change the market data, the execution of the strategy and the numeric parameters of the strategy indicators.+Monte Carlo is the best tool for testing the strategy robustness. When you create a strategy, you see its backtest statistics. However, there is a problem - the strategy might be over-optimized (a.k.a curve fitted). The goal of the Monte Carlo tool is to verify that the strategy is not over-optimized. This tool allows you to randomly change the market data, the execution of the strategy and the numeric parameters of the strategy indicators.
  
  
-If you make minor changes to the strategy and its environment, and it continues to have good profits, this means that the strategy has a good chance to make money in the real market.+If you make minor changes to the strategy and its environment, and the strategy continues to have good profits, this means that the strategy has a good chance to make money in the real market.
  
 On the other hand – if you make some minor changes and the strategy's profits crumble – it means that this strategy is over-optimized and thus, is a bad choice to trade. On the other hand – if you make some minor changes and the strategy's profits crumble – it means that this strategy is over-optimized and thus, is a bad choice to trade.
  
-The Expert Advisor Studio Monte Carlo tool can simulate changes in the market conditions, strategy execution problems and changes in the strategy. 
  
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-When you run the Monte Carlo tool, you actually do not run a single test but 20 (by default) tests. Each test can use one or more simulations.+When you run the Monte Carlo tool, you actually do not run a single test but 20 (by default) tests. Each test is random can use one or more simulations.
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 ===== Simulations ===== ===== Simulations =====
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 +Here you can choose the simulations that will be used in the Monte Carlo tests. You select optional parameters for each simulation from the **Options** tab.
  
 {{ :eas-guide:monte-carlo-simulations.jpg |}} {{ :eas-guide:monte-carlo-simulations.jpg |}}
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 **Market variations** **Market variations**
  
-    * **Randomize history data** - This will change the bar range of a certain amount of bars. It can change the bar’s Low and High values in both directions. This will result in having higher or shorter bars. You can set what amount of bars will be changed and how much they can change in the Options.+    * **Randomize history data** - This will change the bar range of a certain number of bars. It can change the bar’s Low and High values in both directions. This will result in having higher or shorter bars. 
     * **Randomize spread** - If this is enabled EA Studio can set the spread to a different value. It might vary within the borders set in Options.     * **Randomize spread** - If this is enabled EA Studio can set the spread to a different value. It might vary within the borders set in Options.
  
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