Recent Trends in NZDUSD

Solid ECN – The New Zealand dollar fell below $0.605, reaching close to its four-month low following the Australian dollar's downturn. This happened after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided not to change interest rates, a decision many anticipated. They also removed their previous caution against ruling out future rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Kiwi dollar faced additional pressure due to the upcoming policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve. There's the worry that persistently high inflation in the US might postpone any cuts in Fed rates.

Furthermore, within New Zealand, the expectation is growing that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may reduce its policy rates starting in August as the rise in prices begins to slow down. As investors wait, they are particularly interested in the upcoming report on the country's economic growth, hoping it will offer more clarity.

Bitcoin's March 2024 Rebound: Analyzing the Latest Price Movements

Solid ECN – Bitcoin bounced from its March 2024 low, the $60,700 mark, in yesterday's trading session, Tuesday.

As of this writing, the BTCUSD pair trades at about $67,700, slightly below the Ichimoku Cloud. The 4-hour chart shows that digital gold is trying to stabilize the price above the EMA 50, while the Awesome Oscillator and the RSI have flipped above their signal lines. Therefore, the technical indicators are bullish, but the Bitcoin bulls face the $68,900 barrier to overcome if they wish the price to surge higher.

From a technical standpoint, the downtrend will likely extend if the price stabilizes itself below the EMA 50. This attempt hasn't been achieved so far in today's trading session. Therefore, watch the EMA 50 on the BTCUSD 4-hour chart.

Conversely, the uptrend would continue if bullish traders break the aforementioned barrier. In this scenario, the March higher high, $73,700, would be the initial target for the bull market.

GBPJPY: Potential Entry Points Amid AO Divergence

Solid ECN – In the current trading session, the GBP has reached a new high of 193.5 against the Japanese Yen. This peak aligns with the upper band of the bullish flag. Notably, the RSI indicator is nearing the overbought zone and is declining below 70 as of writing. Alongside the RSI, the Awesome Oscillator signals a divergence, suggesting a new consolidation phase may be imminent.

Consequently, the GBPJPY price could drop to 191.3, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci support level, before initiating a new bullish wave.

These two levels offer a suitable entry point for participating in the bull market. Please be aware that the bull market will only be invalidated if the price stabilizes below the 50-day EMA.

EURUSD: Navigating the Bear Market and Identifying Entry Points

Solid ECN – The European currency experienced a significant decline against the U.S. Dollar after failing to maintain its position above the Ichimoku cloud on March 21. The pair is currently trading around 1.081 and is nearing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with the 1.079 support level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has room to enter the oversold territory, suggesting that the decline may continue, potentially dipping below the 30 level as the market approaches the Fibonacci level.

From a technical standpoint, we are currently in a bear market. However, the 23.6% Fibonacci support level may provide a good entry point for bullish traders looking to capitalize on a potential pullback. The rebound is anticipated to start around the 1.079 level and extend to 1.083.

We recommend closely monitoring the EURUSD price action, examining candlestick patterns near the Fibonacci level mentioned above, and adjusting trading strategies accordingly.

Gold Prices Near Record Highs Amid Rate Cut Expectations

Solid ECN – On Monday, the price of gold remained steady around $2,175, nearing its record high of $2,185 set on March 20th. This stability comes amid increasing bets on the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates.

Recently, the Fed kept its forecast, expecting to lower rates three times in 2024, making gold more attractive. Moreover, investors now believe there's over a 70% likelihood that the Fed will cut rates in June, a jump from the 55% probability anticipated before their latest meeting.

This week, all eyes are on important U.S. inflation data and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further indications of future monetary policies. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in Russia and the Middle East support gold's status as a reliable safe-haven asset.

Silver Prices Hold Steady as Investors Eye Fed Moves

Solid ECN—Silver prices have stabilized above $24.5 per ounce after hitting almost a one-year high on March 20th. This happens while investors wait for speeches from the Federal Reserve's officials and the key PCE inflation data this week. These events will help them predict if the U.S. will start easing its monetary policy soon. Before this, the U.S.'s main financial authority decided not to change its plan for three interest rate decreases in 2024.

This decision made silver and similar assets without yield more attractive. Since their last meeting, the likelihood of reducing interest rates in June has increased to about 70% from the previous 55%. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank was among the first big banks to begin reducing its European policies. Silver continues to be supported as a safeguard against global political tensions, mainly due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Recently, Russia has significantly attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

How to Trade the NZD/USD Pullback: Insights from the Awesome Oscillator

The NZD/USD currency pair is in a bear market, trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. The ADX indicator signifies that the trend is strong on the daily chart as it nears the 40 level. However, the Awesome Oscillator indicates divergence, suggesting that the New Zealand dollar will likely experience a pullback to the 0.602 resistance area.

Technically speaking, the next bearish target could be the 78.2% Fibonacci level, but the decline may continue after a consolidation phase. Therefore, the 0.602 level can provide a decent entry point for joining the sellers in the NZD/USD market.

Oil Prices Peak Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

Solid ECN – On Monday, WTI crude oil prices climbed to about $83.5 a barrel, reaching their highest point in five months. This surge comes as investors eagerly await the upcoming joint ministerial OPEC+ meeting this week. At this meeting, the group plans to examine the current state of the market and how well members are sticking to their production goals.

They are expected to decide to keep their current production levels the same. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned last Friday that Russian oil companies should focus more on reducing their oil production than their exports during the second quarter. This is part of Russia's efforts to align with OPEC+'s production targets.

In addition, the market is also paying close attention to how Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil facilities and the peace negotiations in Gaza might affect the oil supply.

On the demand side, there's some positive news: recent data revealed that China's manufacturing sector grew in March for the first time in six months, a development that could mean stronger demand for oil from the world's largest importer of crude oil.

Bitcoin Tests the Bullish Trendline for Next Moves

Bitcoin's price dipped to as low as $65,796 in today's trading session against the U.S. dollar. As of this writing, the pair is testing the ascending trendline highlighted in red. The technical indicators are not providing valuable information now, so we focus on price action analysis.

From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish as long as the price stays above the red trendline. However, if bears push and maintain the BTC/USD price below this trendline, the dip could extend further, with the next bearish target potentially being the $68,000 resistance level.

USD/JPY Eyes Key 151.9 Resistance Level

The U.S. Dollar trades slightly lower than the 151.9 mark against the Japanese yen in today's trading session. The pair has been ranging below this area for two weeks now, and the trend hasn't developed any significant moves lately.

However, bullish traders are keen to see the pair break above the 151.9 ceiling, which could lead to the U.S. price experiencing another jump against the Japanese currency.

Therefore, from a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish while the pair hovers above the 23.6% Fibonacci support level. The uptrend will continue if the bulls break above the resistance level, the 151.9 mark.

Bearish Trend in AUD/USD: Key Indicators and Price Targets

Solid ECN – The momentum of the Australian dollar against the U.S. Dollar has paused in today's trading session. As of this writing, the AUD/USD pair is testing the EMA 50 at about 0.651, which coincides with the Ichimoku Cloud.

The 4-hour chart has formed a Doji candlestick pattern, which could be interpreted as a sign of a trend reversal or a halt to the current uptick in momentum.

From a technical standpoint, as long as the AUD/USD pair trades below the cloud, the primary trend remains bearish. In this scenario, the next target will likely be March's lowest price, the 0.647 mark. Please note that if the Standard Deviation indicator rises above the 0.002 level, the pace of the downtrend will escalate.

On the flip side, the bear market should be invalidated if the price of the Australian dollar closes and stabilizes above the 0.6538 resistance mark. In this case, the rise will likely extend and aim for the upper band of the flag.

Pound Sterling's High Against Dollar & Future Trends

Solid ECN – Yesterday, the pound sterling reached its highest level against the U.S. Dollar for April, climbing to 1.268. When looking at the GBPUSD 4-hour chart, we see a candlestick with a long wick, peaking at 1.268. This peak is near the top edge of a falling flag pattern and is backed by the Ichimoku cloud and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

This area of strong resistance halted the pound's upward movement, leading to a rebound by the U.S. Dollar. Currently, the GBPUSD is trading around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), at approximately 1.263.

From a technical perspective, the currency pair is in a downtrend. If the price remains below the 50 EMA, we might see this downward trend continue. In such a case, the next target for the bears might be April's lowest point, at 1.2539.

However, if the GBPUSD price can rise above the 38.2% Fibonacci level or the 1.268 mark, it would signal a potential shift away from the downtrend. This possibility seems less likely, as the technical indicators lean towards a continuation of the bear market.