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Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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XAUUSD - gold stays at record lows

Gold positions came under pressure on Friday amid the publication of a stronger report on the US labor market: the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.6%, while Employment Change rose by 372 thousand, well ahead of the projected 268 thousand, which allows investors to hope for continued tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch indicator, more than 92% of traders are confident in the "hawkish" rhetoric at the next meeting of the regulator, as well as in the adjustment of the value by 75 basis points at the end of this month.

https://i.ibb.co/gMMjVFG/gold-2.png

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is expanding, making way to new record lows for the "bears". MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic has reached its lows and is trying to reverse upwards, indicating risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1752.87, 1775, 1784.31, 1800 | Support levels: 1730, 1720, 1700

https://i.ibb.co/vwCL6PH/gold-1.png

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GBPUSD - The pair may grow.

If the assumption is correct, the GBP/USD pair will grow to the levels of 1.2674–1.315. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.187.

https://i.ibb.co/8PCRNRW/gbpusd.png

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Cisco Systems - technical analysis
The shares of Cisco Systems Inc., the largest manufacturer and supplier of network equipment for holdings and telecommunications companies, are correcting around 43. On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a global downward channel with dynamic boundaries of 32–44, having reached the resistance line yesterday after an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the annual low of 41.

On the four-hour chart, the local movement within the channel is clamped into a Triangle pattern, the upper limit of which coincides with the global range resistance line at 44, which the quotes will try to break and reach the beginning of the price gap of May 18 around 47.8.

https://i.ibb.co/1b4v2Gt/csco.png

Technical indicators remain in the state of a sell signal, although indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range has begun to narrow, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars in the sell zone.

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Apple - The price may grow.

If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will grow to the levels of 165.65–183.14. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 133.60.

https://i.ibb.co/h8frH02/apple.png


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Crude Oil - the oil market is correcting after the collapse

After a significant decline last week, the trading instrument moved to an upward correction caused by statements by the state oil company of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabian Oil Company, that a supply crisis does not threaten the oil market, as it has an additional production capacity of 1.5M barrels per day, which can be used if necessary. Although this level cannot be maintained for long, it will be enough to compensate for the lack of oil while other members of OPEC+ increase their production. Confidence that Saudi Arabia has these opportunities is added by the announced goals of the Saudi Arabian Oil Company to increase production from 12M barrels to 13M per day by 2027. Also, the US authorities are actively trying to negotiate with Asian countries on setting marginal prices for Russian oil around 40–60 dollars per barrel. Moscow has already stated that it will not trade energy resources in such conditions. If this happens, then, according to experts, oil prices will be able to exceed 300 dollars per barrel.

https://i.ibb.co/9VpDCBF/oil.png

On the global chart, the trading instrument is moving below the global support line, limiting the possibility of long-term growth. Technical indicators maintain an increasing sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 108.22, 113.66 | Support levels: 98.57, 92.4

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USDJPY Technical Analysis
Bulls are trading the USD JPY above 137, which supports the price now. RSI and Stochastic have left the overbought zone, that lead the market to test 137 support after the break-out. The bullish trend is valid with the price fluctuation above the 50 MA and 137.74 deck. 

https://i.ibb.co/VvJ6hgV/usdcad-tech.png

Trade idea
Buy at 137.3, Target: Open | SL: 134.26

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The USDCAD is bullish. MA 50 and the blue trend line are playing the support. As long as these levels are held the price will surge to retest the 1.3083 resistance. There is a high chance for the bulls to break that ceiling.

Support:  1.2936, 1.2819 | Resistance: 1.3083

https://i.ibb.co/RchTj14/usdjpy-tech.png

Trade idea
Buy at the current price, buy limit-1 at 1.2936, buy limit-2 at 1.2847, buy limit-3 at 1.2837 | SL: 1.2812

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USDJPY - The pair may grow.

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will grow to the levels of 139.5–142. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 134.69.

https://i.ibb.co/NWs1bx4/usdjpy.png

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Silver - A fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the pair XAGUSD will fall to the levels of 18.4–15.77. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 20.2.

https://i.ibb.co/86zzWJT/silver.png

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EURUSD - the pair hit an all-time low

The EURUSD pair is actively losing value and yesterday reached a historical milestone, which coincides with a 20-year low at 1 the value of the euro caught with the value of the US dollar against the backdrop of a tense economic situation in the EU, where macroeconomic indicators are declining for the second quarter in a row. Today, statistics from Germany for July will be published, and, according to forecasts, the index of current economic conditions from ZEW may correct to -34.5 points from -27.6 points, and the economic sentiment index risks dropping to 2020 levels around –38.3 points, which puts pressure on the single currency.

https://i.ibb.co/WFqbYb3/eurusd.png

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, reaching its support line yesterday. Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal: indicator Alligator’s fast EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed another down bar in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.015, 1.037 | Support levels: 1, 0.99

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AUDUSD - US dollar reaches 20-year high

The Australian currency shows neutral dynamics against its main competitors; however, it is significantly declining against the US dollar amid its sharp strengthening. Now the pair AUDUSD is correcting around 0.6724.

Despite general stability, the situation in the Australian economy may be at risk, as confirmed by the latest macroeconomic reports: the July index of consumer sentiment from Westpac remained in the negative zone at –3.0%, having been below zero for eight consecutive months, and the business confidence index from the National Bank of Australia in June fell to 1.0 points from 6.0 points a month earlier, which is the lowest value since January of this year and indicates a significant distrust in the country's economy in the business community.

https://i.ibb.co/56JSZZw/audusd.png

On the global chart, the price is trying to get out of the Expanding formation pattern, dropping below its support line. Technical indicators do not weaken the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the sell zone.

Support levels: 0.67, 0.654 | Resistance levels: 0.6768, 0.687

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ETHUSD - Murray analysis

The ETHUSD pair is trading within a wide long-term descending channel, however, in the last three weeks the decline has slowed down, and the price has formed a sideways range of 1000 -1250. Currently, the quotes are close to its lower limit, the breakdown of which will allow the downward movement to continue to the levels of 750, 500 (the lower band of the descending channel). With a breakout of 1250, growth will be able to resume to the area of 1500, 1750.

https://i.ibb.co/GC6PqWY/eth.png

The long-term downward trend in the asset remains, however, to strengthen it, quotes need to break through the current side channel. This may take some more time, which is confirmed by technical indicators illustrating the uncertainty of the market: the Bollinger Bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone, and the Stochastic is directed downwards, but close to the oversold zone, which can become a catalyst for a reversal.   

Resistance levels: 1250, 1500, 1750 | Support levels: 1000, 750, 500


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AUDUSD - The pair may fall

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the levels of 0.6446–0.6082. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6885.

https://i.ibb.co/tbYwncb/audusd.png

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NZDUSD - The pair may fall.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the levels of 0.6060–0.5910. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6257.

https://i.ibb.co/qp8S5xf/nzdusd.png

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90 (edited by SolidECN 2022-07-13 09:46:47)

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MasterCard - Technical analysis
On the daily chart of the asset, a global sideways corridor of 306–380 is developing, within which the price has approached its lower border. There has not yet been a full-fledged attempt to consolidate below it but the likelihood of this remains quite high. The four-hour chart of the asset shows that if the quotes fix below the support level of 308, it is possible to continue to decline and reach an even stronger level of 280.

https://i.ibb.co/gVr2jw4/ma.png

It is confirmed by the readings of technical indicators, which, working out a local correction, keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new bars below the transition level.


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EURUSD - the euro is held near the parity level with the US dollar
The European currency shows multidirectional trading dynamics, consolidating near the key level of 1.0000, which has not yet been actively tested. The day before, the instrument also traded near the parity level and even tried to fall to the level of 0.9990 for some time; however, the "bulls" quickly regained the lost positions. The euro is certainly receiving strong technical support near this psychological level, but the pressure on the single currency only intensifies as the region's economic outlook deteriorates. The last time the euro traded at parity against the US dollar was in December 2002.

Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics put additional pressure on the positions of the single currency, intensifying talks about a possible recession in the European economy: ZEW Survey on Economic Sentiment fell sharply in July from –28.0 to –51.1 points, while analysts expected a decline to only –32.8 points. In turn, ZEW Survey on Current Situation in Germany over the same period fell from –27.6 to –45.8 points, while the forecast was –34.5 points, and the Economic Sentiment index fell from –28.0 to –53.8 points, which also turned out to be significantly worse than market forecasts at the level of –38.3 points. Today, investors are focused on statistics on the dynamics of consumer prices in Germany in June, as well as May data on the dynamics of industrial production in the eurozone.

https://i.ibb.co/GCt6173/eurusd-1.png

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate active decrease. The price range is expanding, making way to new record lows for the "bears". MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic retains downward direction but is located in close proximity to its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold EUR in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.005, 1.01, 1.015, 1.02 | Support levels: 1, 0.995, 0.99

https://i.ibb.co/4YmpJB9/eurusd-2.png

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USDCAD - The pair may grow.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the levels of 1.341 – 1.37. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2816.

https://i.ibb.co/bmmLzsT/usdcad.png


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AUDUSD - Australian dollar develops a weak upward correction

The Australian dollar is showing an uncertain rise, building on the corrective momentum that was formed on Tuesday, July 12, when AUDUSD traded at record lows of June 2020. The instrument is testing the level of 0.677 for a breakout, receiving support from strong macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. In turn, the growing demand for the US currency prevents the emergence of a more active "bullish" dynamics.

https://i.ibb.co/82fNrJ1/audusd-tech.png

Trade Idea
Sell, TP 0.6710 | SL: 0.6874


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94 (edited by SolidECN 2022-07-14 09:08:54)

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USDCHF - The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (3) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 formed, and a correction formed as the fourth wave iv of 3. Now, the formation of the fifth wave v of 3 has started, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction (ii) of v, the USD/CHF pair will grow to the levels of 1.02 – 1.035. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.949.

https://i.ibb.co/bmmLzsT/usdcad.png

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Adobe Systems - technical analysis

On the daily chart of the asset, the formation of a downtrend continues, which may continue after the breakdown of the global year's low at 350. On a four-hour chart, the price forms a local Flag pattern with the boundaries of 360 – 400, which increases the likelihood of a global downward movement after the breakdown of its support line.

https://i.ibb.co/dcvjpFw/adobe.png

Technical indicators reflect a possible continuation of the global decline: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.


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EURUSD - the pair is preparing to consolidate below the historical low

Conflicting macroeconomic statistics from the EU do not allow the euro to interrupt the protracted decline: inflation in Germany in June was 7.6%, which is the same as in May, and CPI in France rose not as much as analysts expected but still amounted to 5.8%, up from 5.2% in May, while the same figure for Spain reached a record high of 10.2%, up sharply from 8.7% in May. With such a significant increase in local values, the composite price index of the EU countries will also increase significantly, preventing a possible reversal and growth of the euro.

https://i.ibb.co/5ByS9GD/eurusd.png

The trading instrument moves within the global downward channel, near the support line. Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator expand the range of fluctuations in the direction of decline, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.015, 1.037 | Support levels: 0.998, 0.98

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Crude Oil - the oil market continues to correct

Brent Crude Oil quotes are correcting, trading just above 98, amid serious concerns about falling energy demand due to a new outbreak of coronavirus in China and, as a result, severe restrictions on the movement of citizens.

The market is awaiting the outcome of US President Joe Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia. John Kirby, National Security Council strategic communications Coordinator at the White House, said yesterday that Biden intends to hold meetings with King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, as well as with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. This visit has a specific goal of persuading Saudi Arabia to increase oil production levels, thereby reducing its quotes on the world market. However, experts are sure that it will not be successful for the United States, since the day before it became known that at a recent online summit of the BRICS organization, which includes the Russian Federation and China, the issue of Saudi Arabia's membership in the organization was discussed.

https://i.ibb.co/3sKBCwm/oil.png

On the global chart, the price is trading below the key level of 100.00. Technical indicators are holding a steady sell signal, which is still strengthening: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, being in the sell zone, is forming new descending bars.

Support levels: 96.22, 88.63 | Resistance levels: 100.7, 106


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ADAUSD - Technical analysis

The ADAUSD pair is moving within a long-term downtrend, and this week it was able to break below the level of 0.43, which it had unsuccessfully tested several times for a month and a half. In the future, the price decline may continue to 0.3906 and 0.3418. If the middle line of Bollinger bands is broken upwards, the quotes may rise to 0.4882 and 0.5371.

https://i.ibb.co/64vRP6z/ada.png

Further negative dynamics seem more likely, as technical indicators confirm the continuation of the downward trend: Bollinger bands are directed downwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone, and Stochastic has entered the oversold zone and is directed horizontally.

Resistance levels: 0.4600, 0.4882, 0.5371 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3418, 0.2929

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99 (edited by SolidECN 2022-07-15 10:40:23)

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Crude Oil - The price may fall.

If the assumption is correct, Brent Crude Oil price will fall to the levels of 77.08–62.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 109.83.

https://i.ibb.co/0V577T6/oil.png


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Gold  - The pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction develops as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) forms. Now, the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v of C is ending the formation.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correctional wave (iv) of v of C, the XAUUSD pair will fall to the levels of 1681.1–1621.9. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1811.8.

https://i.ibb.co/0V577T6/oil.png

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