NZDUSD technical analysis

H4

On the four-hour chart of the asset, at the level of 0.6107, there is a formation of a Hammer candlestick pattern, which signals a possible change in the trend to an upward one, as well as a "bullish" Engulfing pattern at the level of 0.6174, which means a reversal of quotes at the bottom. In the current situation, the priority scenario is an increase from the level of 0.6246 to the zone of 0.6559−0.6869. An alternative scenario is possible if the buyers fail to hold the key support level of 0.6107, then the price may drop even lower to the range of 0.5929–0.5755.

D1

On the daily chart, a Falling Wedge price pattern is observed, and at the moment, an upward exit from the "bearish" trend channel is being implemented. A positive signal for the asset is the appearance of a Hammer reversal pattern at the support level of 0.6107, which can act as a catalyst for the uptrend from the level of 0.6246 up to the level of 0.6869. If the price consolidates below the level of 0.6107, the trading instrument may show a decrease to the zone of 0.5929−0.5755.

Support levels: 0.6107, 0.5929, 0.5755 | Resistance levels: 0.6246, 0.6559, 0.6869

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Netflix - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, wave A of the higher level has formed, and the development of a downward correction as wave B has also completed. At the moment, wave C is being built, where the first leading wave of the lower level 1 of (1) of C has already appeared, the local correction as wave 2 of (1) of C has been completed, and the development of the third wave 3 of (1) of C has begun.

If the assumption is correct, the price will rise to the levels of 326.97 – 397. The level of 163.03 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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Walt Disney - The probability of decline remains.

On the daily chart, the development of wave A of the higher level has completed, and now there is a downward correction as wave B with the formation of wave (A) of B. In addition, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (A) is being formed, within which the wave of the third wave v of 5 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 80 – 62.5. The level of 113.45 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

USDCHF - Technical analysis

H4
A Double Top price pattern is forming on the four-hour chart, and the USD/CHF quotes are currently near the Neck line, overcoming which will mean the continuation of the active phase of decline. The negative dynamics is intensified by the appearance at the resistance level of 0.9840 of the Shooting Star and Hanging Man figures following each other. In addition, the downward movement is due to the formation of the Three Black Crows trend continuation pattern in the range of 0.9840–0.9790. Currently, the asset has formed another Shooting Star candlestick analysis pattern at 0.9790, which signals growing "bearish" sentiment in the market. In the current situation, the scenario with a decrease in the trading instrument to the support level of 0.9697 seems more likely, overcoming which will allow quotes to fall to the area of 0.9548−0.9421. An alternative scenario is possible if the price consolidates above the resistance level of 0.9840 and then moves up to the level of 1.0117.

D1
On the daily chart, at the level of 0.9840, there is the formation of a Hanging Man reversal pattern, which indicates that the quotes have consolidated the top and met with strong resistance. This was confirmed by the formation of a classic Shooting Star candlestick analysis pattern, which similarly illustrates the completion of a "bullish" trend. At the moment, probably, there is a formation of the Falling Three Methods figure, which is a signal for the continuation of the downtrend. If the sellers overcome the support level of 0.9697, one should expect further continuation of the negative dynamics in USDCHF currency pair to the area of 0.9548−0.9421.

Support levels: 0.9697, 0.9548, 0.9421 | Resistance levels: 0.984, 1.0033, 1.0117

GBPUSD - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) has been formed and the downward correction as the second wave (2) has ended. At the moment, the wave C of (2) has developed, in which the fifth wave of the lower level v of C is built, and the formation of the ascending third wave (3) has begun.

If the assumption is correct, GBPUSD will rise to the levels of 1.2674–1.315. The level of 1.175 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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Quotes of XAUUSD are correcting in a downtrend, being in the area of 1710.

While most experts expect the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates, some analysts have begun to openly speak out in favor of the fact that the regulator will not be able to stick to the current "hawkish" course for a long time. The fact is that such a rapid tightening of monetary conditions increases the risks of a recession, which could have a more devastating effect on the economy than the current record inflation. US officials will either raise the rate to the required 4.75%–5%, or refuse such steps altogether, which will lead to an increase in the Consumer Price Index above 10.0%. Whatever scenario the US regulator chooses, this will have a positive effect on the precious metals market, as investors will urgently start looking for a "safe haven" transferring their capital into gold.

Despite the positive fundamental background, the technical picture on the price chart does not yet give buying signals: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sell zone, forming descending bars.

Support levels: 1697, 1650. | Resistance levels: 1725, 1786

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Silver - H4
On the four-hour chart of the asset at the level of 18.22, there is a formation of a Long-Legged Doji candlestick analysis pattern, signaling uncertainty in the market or a possible reversal, which is also confirmed by the formation of the Morning Star pattern, after which the trading instrument showed a price recovery to the level of 19.07. At the moment, the quotes are moving in the sideways range of 18.62–19.07, where the Hammer and Bullish Belt Hold patterns have already appeared. Their combination signals that the asset has probably reached a low and is reversing. At the moment, the uptrend to the resistance level of 19.50 is seen as a priority, consolidation above which will allow the "bulls" to head to the zone of 20.95–24.19. An alternative scenario may be realized if the price breaks the key support level at 18.22, then the decline may intensify up to the level of 14.77.

D1
On the daily chart, there is the formation of a Falling Wedge price pattern, which may end at the support level of 18.22, and a Hammer, the appearance of which indicates that the price has reached the bottom. In the current situation, the scenario with an upward movement from the level of 18.22 is seen as a priority. Overcoming the upper border of the Falling Wedge and consolidation of the quotes above 19.50 will mean a final upward reversal and will allow the "bulls" to restore their positions in the range of 20.95–24.19.

Support levels: 18.22, 16.74, 14.77 | Resistance levels: 19.50, 20.95, 24.19

The European currency received a positive impetus

The euro continues to strengthen locally in tandem with the US dollar after the publication of a positive report on the dynamics of consumer prices. According to statistics, in June the indicator added 0.8% and the annual value reached 8.6%, which is fully consistent with the preliminary estimates of the market and representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB). These macroeconomic data will influence the decision of the members of the regulator during tomorrow's meeting on monetary policy, and the fact that inflation in the eurozone remains in line with expectations may signal an increase in interest rates in a standard 25 basis point increment, which will be enough to contain price increases. In this case, euro quotes will receive short-term support.

Despite the quite expected achievement of the absolute low of the year, EURUSD remained within the global downward channel and is now forming another wave of growth. Technical indicators hurried to give a signal for the beginning of the correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars.

Support levels: 1.0185, 1 | Resistance levels: 1.035, 1.0624

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AUDUSD - The probability of decline remains.

On the daily chart, the development of the first wave of the higher level (1) of C has completed, and now there is a downward correction as wave (2) of C, which includes the formation of wave C of (2). At the moment, the development of the third wave of the lower level iii of C has completed and a local correction is being formed as the fourth wave iv of C.

If the assumption is correct, AUDUSD will fall to the levels of 0.6446–0.6082. The level of 0.7273 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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GBPUSD - UK inflation reaches new highs

According to the June report, consumer prices rose by 0.8% compared to the previous month, and the annual rate rose to 9.4%, which was an absolute record among the world's leading economies. In turn, the Producer Price Index in just a month increased by 1.8%, and the annual value was 24.0% compared to 22.4%, shown in May. It is already becoming clear that any measures taken by the Bank of England are not able to contain the negative dynamics and, most likely, by the end of the year inflation will indeed exceed the 10.0% barrier, as some experts have previously anticipated. Investors were also disappointed with the report on the dynamics of changes in DCLG House Price Index, where now the annual value is 12.8%, which was not the case in the entire history of observations.

GBPUSD is trading within the global downtrend channel, reversing towards growth. Technical indicators hold a sell signal, but do not exclude an upward correction: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations started to narrow down and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars.

Support levels: 1.1815, 1.154 | Resistance levels: 1.2150, 1.2627

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USDJPY - the Bank of Japan announced the continuation of the redemption of bonds

The changes will not affect the interest rate, which is expected to be kept at a negative level of –0.10%, but, according to the decision of the officials, the rules for the redemption of government bonds will be adjusted. Purchases of securities will continue with no volume cap, and transactions in bonds with a fixed rate of 0.25% will now take place every business day. The bank also intends to acquire shares of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate trusts worth about 12 trillion yen and 180 billion yen, respectively. In addition, corporate bond buybacks worth up to 3 trillion yen will continue. Thus, one can say with confidence that the high volatility in USD/JPY will increase, and against the backdrop of a declining US dollar, the yen has high chances for a correction.

The trading instrument is trading in the global uptrend, below the annual high of 139.00. Technical indicators are holding a buy signal, which started to weaken: the fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs is slightly narrowing and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new descending bars and approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 136.7, 134.2 | Resistance levels: 139, 141

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Silver - demand for silver is actively declining

To assess the current trends in the market, it is enough to refer to the statistics on the demand for the assets of the metal group on the commodity exchange. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), investor interest in silver contracts is so low that it could fall into negative area for the first time in three years by the end of this month. The last time such a strong negative trend was observed in the early summer of 2019, when metal quotes were around 15 dollars per ounce. It follows from the statistics that last week the number of net speculative positions on the asset was fixed at around 3.2K.

Quotes are gradually decreasing and setting new annual lows. Technical indicators maintain the global sell signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator expands in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming descending bars, being in the sales zone.

Support levels: 18.40, 16.81 | Resistance levels: 19.30, 20.63

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