NATGAS

The US Energy Information Administration reported today that domestic supplies of natural gas decreased by-84  billion cubic feet for the week ended February 24 from -81 bcf in the previous week, while analysts’ expected drop  of -80 billion cubic feet.

Still, it is much less than a decrease of 126 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 101 bcf as mild weather kept heating demand for the fuel low. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 2.030 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 493 bcf higher than last year at this time and 359 bcf above the five-year average of 1.671 tcf.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair rallied upwards to confirm breaching the correctional bearish channel’s resistance, which stops the correctional bearish trend and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again, on its way to achieve positive targets that start at 1.2260 and extend to 1.2440.

Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, it might be preceded by some temporary sideways fluctuation affected by stochastic negativity, waiting to gather positive momentum that assists to push the price to achieve the expected targets. Note that breaking 1.2050 will put the price under intraday negative pressure that targets testing the most important support at 1.1940 before any new attempt to rise.

USDJPY

The USDJPY pair continued to decline strongly to reach the thresholds of the negative target mentioned in our last technical update at 133.30, starting today with additional negativity to support the chances of continuing the bearish bias in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaking the mentioned level will extend the bearish wave to reach 131.75 areas as a next main station.

Note that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 135.40, as breaching it will push the price to recover and head towards achieving gains that start by testing 137.70 areas.

USDCHF

The USDCHF pair broke 0.9316 level strongly to complete forming double top pattern that its signs appear on the chart, to surpass the negative target mentioned in our last report at 0.9220 and opens the way to continue the decline towards 0.9135 areas, waiting for more bearish bias in the upcoming sessions.

Note that surpassing the last level will push the price to visit the recently recorded low at 0.9060, while breaching 0.9220 will stop the negative scenario and push the price to start recovery attempts that target testing 0.9316 level initially.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair resumed its positive trades to test 1.2200 barrier, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend, waiting for more rise to visit 1.2260 level that represents our next target.

The EMA50 supports the price from below, and surpassing the targeted level will push the price to 1.2440 as a next main station, while stochastic negativity might cause some temporary sideways fluctuation before rising again. Holding above 1.2070 represents the first condition to continue the bullish wave, as breaking it represents negative factor that will press on the price to visit 1.1940 initially.

Bitcoin

CPI inflation data from the United States for February was released today at 12:30 pm GMT and came in-line with market expectations. Headline CPI decelerated from 6.4 to 6.0% YoY (exp. 6.0% YoY) while core gauge moved from 5.6 to 5.5% YoY (exp. 5.5% YoY). Reaction of the FX and equity markets was fairly muted - after initial volatile up and down swings, indices moved slightly higher and USD weakened. However, scale of the moves on USD and stock markets is relatively small. Much more action can be seen on the cryptocurrency market with Bitcoin testing $26,000 mark following the release.

Taking a look at BITCOIN chart at D1 interval, we can see that the cryptocurrency is trading higher for the third day in a row and, just as it was the case yesterday and on Sunday, the move is quite big. Bitcoin trades almost 9% higher on the day and makes a break above $26,000 mark for the first time in 9 months! Other cryptocurrencies are also trading higher with Ethereum adding 5% and Dogecoin trading over 4% higher.

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair begins today with clear positivity to attack 1.0745 level and attempts to breach it, which hints heading to achieve new gains in the upcoming sessions, while it faces negative pressure by stochastic that might hinder the mission to rise.

Therefore, we prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level followed by detecting its next destination clearly, noting that the contradiction between the technical factors provides another reason for neutrality. Note that confirming breaching 1.0745 will push the price to achieve positive targets that start at 1.0800 and extend to 1.0925, while consolidating below it will press on the price to resume the bearish wave that targets 1.0620 followed by 1.0515 as next main stations.

Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies are enjoying another day of strong gains with BITCOIN rallying over-7% and looking towards the $27,000 mark. The most popular coin took out a local high from Tuesday today and reached a fresh 9-month high. While cryptocurrencies performed poorly between mid-February and early-March, the digital asset market took a U-turn this week. Actions of US authorities aimed at stemming contagion risk from collapse of tech- and crypto-related banks, triggered a rally on cryptocurrencies market. Bitcoin is currently trading over 35% above a local low reached as recently as a week ago on March 10, 2023. Solid gains have been all across the cryptocurrency market this week.

A number of cryptocurrencies rallied over-20% over the past week! Taking a look at the BITCOIN chart at D1 interval, we can see that the coin has not only fully recovered from the February 21 - March 10 sell-off but has even jumped noticeably above mid-Friday's peak in the $25,000 area. Coin is closing in on a $27,000 mark. Near-term potential resistance levels to watch are marked with lower and upper limits of a short-term trading range from May and June 2022 at $29,000 and $31,500, respectively.

US100

Markets remained nervous on the final trading day of the week with major European and US indices pulling back
Top blue chips indices from Europe dropped over 1% lower while major Wall Street indices, like S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are trading around 1.0-1.5% lower on the day
Flight to safety can be spotted on the markets with money flowing to precious metals and bonds
Gold is trading over 3%  higher on the day as short- and long-term US yields plunge with psychological $2,000 level being just 1% away
Markets are pricing around 60% chance of Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points next week and around 40% of keeping them unchanged
USD is one of the worst performing G10 currencies today
In spite of yesterday's liquidity boost from major central banks, share price of First Republic Bank saw only short-lived relief and is plunging 25% today
Credit Suisse remains in the center of attention in Europe with bank calling its CFO teams to work over the week and look for 'scenarios for the bank'
Also, media reports saying that major banks are limiting trading with Credit Suisse are mounting. Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale are said to be the latest to restrict trading with CS
Energy commodities are pulling back amid an overall increase in risk aversion. Brent and WTI are trading 2% lower and is heading for the biggest weekly drop since April 2022 while US natural gas prices plunge 7%
Downward pressure on US natural gas prices is further magnified by new weather forecast for the United States that hint at near- or above-average temperatures in key heating regions over the next 2 weeks
University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March missed expectations significantly, dropping from 67.0 to 63.4 (exp. 67.0). Both current situation and expectations subindices missed estimates significantly
In spite of risk-off moods seen across most financial markets, cryptocurrencies are having a great day. Bitcoin jumps 6% and trades in the $26,500 area

Nasdaq-100 (US100) failed to sustain bullish momentum and break above the 12,750 pts resistance zone. The index is pulling back today as concerns over the condition of the US and European continue to linger over markets. However, Nasdaq-100 drops the least among major Wall Street indices due to an almost non-existent share of the banking sector in the index.

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair shows calm positive trades to gradually towards our waited target at 1.0745, getting good support by the EMA50, to keep the bullish trend suggested for the upcoming period.

It is important to monitor the price when reaching the targeted level, as breaching it will extend the bullish wave to reach 1.0920 areas as a next main station, while consolidating against the bullish wave will press on the price to rebound bearishly to test the minor support areas around 1.0635 initially. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.0635 will stop the expected rise for today and push the price to turn to decline to visit 1.0515 level as a first station.

Gold 

Precious metals gain amid increase in risk-aversion and pullback in US yields

Strong upward move launched on the gold market on March 8, 2023 is continuing at the beginning of a new week. Risk-off moods can be spotted on the financial markets at the beginning of a new week and it is providing support for safe haven assets, like for example gold. UBS will buy troubled Swiss lender, Credit Suisse, in a government-brokered deal. However, this failed to ease market concerns as the deal will include write down of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds and this may turn out to be a hit to banks and other institutions with exposure to Credit Suisse. Apart from that, Fed and 5 other central banks (ECB, BoJ, BoE, BoC and SNB) will switch from weekly to daily USD swap auctions in order to boost USD liquidity. US yields pulled back providing even more support for precious metals.

As a result of those market moves, gold is trading over 1% higher on the day. Gold price climbed above $2,000 per ounce this morning, reaching the highest level since March 2022.