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Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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DE30

he German leading index is facing an important decision. 

W1 chart

The DAX / DE30 reached a new high for the year this week at 15,718 points. However, the break above resistance at 15,698 points was not sustainable. The index was set back slightly, so that it currently has a small weekly loss.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/de-1.png

D1 chart

Today's setback was seen as a buying opportunity - this is shown by the lower shadow. The recovery attempt is not yet convincing. However, the DAX / DE30 can hold at a high level, so that a second test of the above-mentioned hurdle is possible.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/de-2.png

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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USDCHF

The USDCHF pair traded with clear negativity yesterday, and ended trades near 0.9316, noticing that the price begins today with additional negativity to attack this level and attempt to confirm breaking it, which makes us prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend, through monitoring the price behavior according to the mentioned level.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/usdchf_11.png

Note that confirming breaking the mentioned support will press on the price to achieve more decline and return to the main bearish track, to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 0.9220 and extend to 0.9135, while consolidating above it will lead the price to resume the correctional bullish track that its next main target located at 0.9475.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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NATGAS

The US Energy Information Administration reported today that domestic supplies of natural gas decreased by-84  billion cubic feet for the week ended February 24 from -81 bcf in the previous week, while analysts’ expected drop  of -80 billion cubic feet.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/natgas_2.png

Still, it is much less than a decrease of 126 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 101 bcf as mild weather kept heating demand for the fuel low. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 2.030 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 493 bcf higher than last year at this time and 359 bcf above the five-year average of 1.671 tcf.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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EURUSD

The EURUSD pair begins today with additional positivity to surpass 1.0645 level and settles above it, which pushes the price to achieve more intraday gains, targeting testing 1.0745 as a next station, noting that breaching this level will push the price to continue rising and head towards 1.0800 followed by 1.0925 levels as next main targets.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurusd_14.png

Moving above the EMA50 supports the continuation of the expected bullish trend, while stochastic might cause some temporary sideways fluctuation before resuming the bullish bias. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.0645 and holding below it will stop the suggested bullish wave and press on the price to decline again.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair rallied upwards to confirm breaching the correctional bearish channel’s resistance, which stops the correctional bearish trend and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again, on its way to achieve positive targets that start at 1.2260 and extend to 1.2440.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/gbpusd_8.png

Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, it might be preceded by some temporary sideways fluctuation affected by stochastic negativity, waiting to gather positive momentum that assists to push the price to achieve the expected targets. Note that breaking 1.2050 will put the price under intraday negative pressure that targets testing the most important support at 1.1940 before any new attempt to rise.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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DE30

European indices launched today's trading little changed after Fed and US Treasury stepped in to limit contagion risk from SVB collapse. However, issues may not be over as SVB is not the only bank with problems. Signature Bank has been shut down by regulators over the weekend due to systemic risk concerns. Meanwhile, another US bank may be facing collapse - First Republic Bank. This bank is trading 60% lower in US premarket session right now and it has dented moods on the markets following European cash session open.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/de30_3.png

German DAX slumped around 200 points during the first hour of the cash trading session. Index erased all of the overnight gains, dropped to the lowest level since March 2, 2023 and is now attempting to break below the 15,230 pts support zone at press time.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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USDJPY

The USDJPY pair continued to decline strongly to reach the thresholds of the negative target mentioned in our last technical update at 133.30, starting today with additional negativity to support the chances of continuing the bearish bias in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaking the mentioned level will extend the bearish wave to reach 131.75 areas as a next main station.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/usdjpy_11.png

Note that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 135.40, as breaching it will push the price to recover and head towards achieving gains that start by testing 137.70 areas.

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US30

US index futures traded significantly higher this morning after the Fed and US Treasury stepped in to limit contagion risk from SVB collapse. Emergency lending programm was announced that will allow banks to access liquidity needed to service deposits. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen approved necessary decisions assuring that bank deposits are protected and announced that all depositors will be able to access. While broad market performance on Monday morning showed that the situation has calmed, problems may not be over yet. SVB collapsed and FDIC took control over it while Signature Bank was shut down by regulators due to systemic risk following SVB collapse. However, another bank is rumored to be close to collapsing - First Republic Bank. Shares of this bank are trading 60% lower in premarket today and it is said to be the next in-line should the domino effect continue. Slump in First Republic Bank shares are dragging down the whole market with DAX and other European blue chips indices trading 2-3% lower on the day. US equity futures erased all of the gains and are now trading flat or slightly lower compared to Friday's closing prices.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/us30.png

Taking a look at Dow Jones futures chart (US30) at D1 interval, we can see that all of the gains made earlier today were erased already and now the index is trading lower. The index tested resistance zone marked with 38.2% retracement and 200-session moving average this morning but has pulled back since and is now testing support zone ranging around 31,750 pts area.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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USDCHF

The USDCHF pair broke 0.9316 level strongly to complete forming double top pattern that its signs appear on the chart, to surpass the negative target mentioned in our last report at 0.9220 and opens the way to continue the decline towards 0.9135 areas, waiting for more bearish bias in the upcoming sessions.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/usdchf_12.png

Note that surpassing the last level will push the price to visit the recently recorded low at 0.9060, while breaching 0.9220 will stop the negative scenario and push the price to start recovery attempts that target testing 0.9316 level initially.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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EURUSD

The EURUSD pair found solid resistance at 1.0745 and couldn’t manage to breach it, to start providing negative trades by today’s open, noticing that stochastic shows negative signals that press on the price to decline.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurusd_15.png

Therefore, we expect to witness bearish bias in the upcoming sessions, and the targets begin at 1.0620 and extend to 1.0515 after surpassing the previous level, noting that breaking 1.0690 will ease the mission of achieving the waited targets. Note that breaching 1.0745 will stop the suggested negative scenario and lead the price to achieve new gains that reach 1.0800 followed by 1.0925.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair resumed its positive trades to test 1.2200 barrier, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend, waiting for more rise to visit 1.2260 level that represents our next target.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/gbpusd_9.png

The EMA50 supports the price from below, and surpassing the targeted level will push the price to 1.2440 as a next main station, while stochastic negativity might cause some temporary sideways fluctuation before rising again. Holding above 1.2070 represents the first condition to continue the bullish wave, as breaking it represents negative factor that will press on the price to visit 1.1940 initially.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

USDJPY

The USDJPY pair surpassed 133.30 level and approached 132.00 barrier, but it bounced bullishly to settle around the first level, noticing that the price begins today positively to move away from this level, which hints heading to start bullish wave that we expect to target 135.40 areas initially.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/usdjpy_12.png

Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, supported by stochastic positivity that appears on the four hours’ time frame, being aware that breaking 133.30 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to suffer additional losses that reach 131.75 as a next negative target.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

Bitcoin

CPI inflation data from the United States for February was released today at 12:30 pm GMT and came in-line with market expectations. Headline CPI decelerated from 6.4 to 6.0% YoY (exp. 6.0% YoY) while core gauge moved from 5.6 to 5.5% YoY (exp. 5.5% YoY). Reaction of the FX and equity markets was fairly muted - after initial volatile up and down swings, indices moved slightly higher and USD weakened. However, scale of the moves on USD and stock markets is relatively small. Much more action can be seen on the cryptocurrency market with Bitcoin testing $26,000 mark following the release.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/btc_10.png

Taking a look at BITCOIN chart at D1 interval, we can see that the cryptocurrency is trading higher for the third day in a row and, just as it was the case yesterday and on Sunday, the move is quite big. Bitcoin trades almost 9% higher on the day and makes a break above $26,000 mark for the first time in 9 months! Other cryptocurrencies are also trading higher with Ethereum adding 5% and Dogecoin trading over 4% higher.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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USDCHF

The USDCHF pair continued to decline to surpass our waited target at 0.9135 and reach few pips away from the recently recorded low at 0.9060, noticing that the price begins to rebound bullishly to build bullish wave that we expect to target 0.9220 followed by 0.9316 levels as next positive stations.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/usdchf_13.png

Therefore, the bullish bias will be expected for today, supported by stochastic positivity, noting that breaking 0.9060 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to resume the main bearish wave.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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EURUSD

The EURUSD pair begins today with clear positivity to attack 1.0745 level and attempts to breach it, which hints heading to achieve new gains in the upcoming sessions, while it faces negative pressure by stochastic that might hinder the mission to rise.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurusd_16.png

Therefore, we prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level followed by detecting its next destination clearly, noting that the contradiction between the technical factors provides another reason for neutrality. Note that confirming breaching 1.0745 will push the price to achieve positive targets that start at 1.0800 and extend to 1.0925, while consolidating below it will press on the price to resume the bearish wave that targets 1.0620 followed by 1.0515 as next main stations.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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USDCHF

USDCHF pair provided clear negative trades yesterday, and begins today with new decline to attempt to break 0.9260 level again, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that our waited targets begin at 0.9150 and extend to 0.9060.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/usdchf_14.png

Stochastic provides negative signals that support the continuation of the expected decline, reminding you that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 0.9316.

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Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies are enjoying another day of strong gains with BITCOIN rallying over-7% and looking towards the $27,000 mark. The most popular coin took out a local high from Tuesday today and reached a fresh 9-month high. While cryptocurrencies performed poorly between mid-February and early-March, the digital asset market took a U-turn this week. Actions of US authorities aimed at stemming contagion risk from collapse of tech- and crypto-related banks, triggered a rally on cryptocurrencies market. Bitcoin is currently trading over 35% above a local low reached as recently as a week ago on March 10, 2023. Solid gains have been all across the cryptocurrency market this week.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/btc_11.png

A number of cryptocurrencies rallied over-20% over the past week! Taking a look at the BITCOIN chart at D1 interval, we can see that the coin has not only fully recovered from the February 21 - March 10 sell-off but has even jumped noticeably above mid-Friday's peak in the $25,000 area. Coin is closing in on a $27,000 mark. Near-term potential resistance levels to watch are marked with lower and upper limits of a short-term trading range from May and June 2022 at $29,000 and $31,500, respectively.

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EURUSD

Industrial production in the US remain unchanged at 0.0% in February, below market consensus of a 0.2% MoM rise.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurusd_18.png

EURUSD is rather unimpressed by today's  data. The pair continues to trade around 1.0620 level.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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US100

Markets remained nervous on the final trading day of the week with major European and US indices pulling back
Top blue chips indices from Europe dropped over 1% lower while major Wall Street indices, like S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are trading around 1.0-1.5% lower on the day
Flight to safety can be spotted on the markets with money flowing to precious metals and bonds
Gold is trading over 3%  higher on the day as short- and long-term US yields plunge with psychological $2,000 level being just 1% away
Markets are pricing around 60% chance of Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points next week and around 40% of keeping them unchanged
USD is one of the worst performing G10 currencies today
In spite of yesterday's liquidity boost from major central banks, share price of First Republic Bank saw only short-lived relief and is plunging 25% today
Credit Suisse remains in the center of attention in Europe with bank calling its CFO teams to work over the week and look for 'scenarios for the bank'
Also, media reports saying that major banks are limiting trading with Credit Suisse are mounting. Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale are said to be the latest to restrict trading with CS
Energy commodities are pulling back amid an overall increase in risk aversion. Brent and WTI are trading 2% lower and is heading for the biggest weekly drop since April 2022 while US natural gas prices plunge 7%
Downward pressure on US natural gas prices is further magnified by new weather forecast for the United States that hint at near- or above-average temperatures in key heating regions over the next 2 weeks
University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March missed expectations significantly, dropping from 67.0 to 63.4 (exp. 67.0). Both current situation and expectations subindices missed estimates significantly
In spite of risk-off moods seen across most financial markets, cryptocurrencies are having a great day. Bitcoin jumps 6% and trades in the $26,500 area

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/us100_2.png

Nasdaq-100 (US100) failed to sustain bullish momentum and break above the 12,750 pts resistance zone. The index is pulling back today as concerns over the condition of the US and European continue to linger over markets. However, Nasdaq-100 drops the least among major Wall Street indices due to an almost non-existent share of the banking sector in the index.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

US500
Concerns over the condition of the banking sector triggered a sell-off on the global stock markets this week and now investors hope that FED will ease its hawkish rhetoric at a meeting scheduled for next week.. We will get to know what Fed's response is the coming Wednesday at 6:00 pm GMT. However, rate decisions from the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank will also draw attention, and so will flash PMIs for September from Europe and US. Be sure to watch US500, DE30 and GBPCHF next week!

US500
FOMC rate decision is a key event of the week. The market anticipates the Fed will hike rates by just 25 basis points, in light of easing inflationary pressures and the recent banking turmoil. However, some expect that the central bank can reverse course if the financial system is in distress. We will see whether those expectations are met on Wednesday, 6:00 pm GMT and any deviation  away from a 25 bp move could potentially trigger additional volatility on the markets. The meeting will also be closely watched as a new set of economic forecasts will be provided.

DE30
While central banks will draw the most attention next week, release of flash PMI indices for March may also trigger a jump in volatility. German manufacturing and services indices are expected to rise slightly compared to February releases and weaker-than-expected print could provide some fuel for DE30 bulls. As usual, focus in Europe will be primarily on releases from France (Friday, 8:15 am GMT) and Germany (8:30 am GMT).

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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EURUSD

The EURUSD pair shows calm positive trades to gradually towards our waited target at 1.0745, getting good support by the EMA50, to keep the bullish trend suggested for the upcoming period.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurusd_19.png

It is important to monitor the price when reaching the targeted level, as breaching it will extend the bullish wave to reach 1.0920 areas as a next main station, while consolidating against the bullish wave will press on the price to rebound bearishly to test the minor support areas around 1.0635 initially. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.0635 will stop the expected rise for today and push the price to turn to decline to visit 1.0515 level as a first station.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair provided new positive trades to test 1.2200 barrier, waiting to get positive motive that assists to push the price to continue the price and achieve our positive targets that start at 1.2260 and extend to 1.2440 after surpassing the previous level.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/gbpusd_12.png

The EMA50 continues to support the expected bullish wave, which depends on the price stability above 1.2060, as breaking it will put the price under negative pressure that targets testing 1.1940 before any new attempt to rise.

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Gold 

Precious metals gain amid increase in risk-aversion and pullback in US yields

Strong upward move launched on the gold market on March 8, 2023 is continuing at the beginning of a new week. Risk-off moods can be spotted on the financial markets at the beginning of a new week and it is providing support for safe haven assets, like for example gold. UBS will buy troubled Swiss lender, Credit Suisse, in a government-brokered deal. However, this failed to ease market concerns as the deal will include write down of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds and this may turn out to be a hit to banks and other institutions with exposure to Credit Suisse. Apart from that, Fed and 5 other central banks (ECB, BoJ, BoE, BoC and SNB) will switch from weekly to daily USD swap auctions in order to boost USD liquidity. US yields pulled back providing even more support for precious metals.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/gold_18.png

As a result of those market moves, gold is trading over 1% higher on the day. Gold price climbed above $2,000 per ounce this morning, reaching the highest level since March 2022.

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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Oil

Oil launched a new week's trading lower amid an overall increase in risk aversion. WTI drops below $65 per barrel and trades at the lowest level since November 2021! Declines accelerated after price dropped below a key $70-72 price zone last week. The $60-65 area is a demand zone marked with local lows from 2021 and local highs from 2019 and 2020.

There are few reasons behind a drop in oil prices:
Concerns over conditions of banking and financial systems in the United States and Europe. UBS will acquire Credit Suisse but it failed to ease market concerns
Demand in China remains weak - imports stay low, run rates in refineries drop but at the same time Chinese exports of oil derivatives are increasing, what may hint at oversupply in the country
Lack of interest from speculators - end-February data shows oil being extremely net oversold by speculators
Goldman Sachs - one of the world's largest institutional bulls when it comes to oil - slashed Brent price 12-month ahead forecast from $100 to $94 per barrel
https://www.linkpicture.com/q/oil_10.png

WTI (OIL.WTI) drops below $65 per barrel. Price dropped to a key zone, marked with local highs and lows from previous years, as well as with the range of two largest downward impulses in recent year (2014 and 2020).

Re: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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EURUSD

Euro continues to recover against the dollar at the beginning of this week, after a sharp crash in the last week - that was motivated by the worries around Credit Suisse that put the European banking sector under pressure and heavily penalized the euro.


Daily Time Frame EUR/USD

On the daily chart, we can see that the price is once again testing the upper limit of the range, close to 1.0695.
This will be a decisive zone for the price to understand the next momentum in the currency pair.
https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurusd-n-1_3.png


Dollar Index Daily Time Frame

> On the dollar index chart, we can see that the bullish movement slowed down after the price tested the 50 period exponential moving average (EMA).
> As long as the price remains below this zone, we should expect the bearish movement to continue over the next few sessions.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurusd-n-2_3.png

> USD index, Daily time frame chart.
> JPY leads the gains this trading session.

https://www.linkpicture.com/q/eurusd-n-3_1.png

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