XAUUSD - Global demand for gold remains at a record high

Yesterday, gold quotes recorded the most significant drop since last June, dropping by 90.0 dollars from 1950.0 to Friday's low at 1860.0, the key driver of which was the growth of the US dollar from 101.500 to 102.900 in the USD Index against the background of a strong report on the US labor market. Investors perceived the movement as a local correction, which will not receive a serious continuation since the fundamental global background does not contribute to the decline in the asset: according to the report for 2022, global demand for gold amounted to 4.741K tons, which is an absolute record since 2011. Most of the positive momentum came from central banks' purchases, which mostly wished to remain anonymous. According to experts, regulators thus hope to protect themselves from possible sanctions, providing strong support for national economies.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting, keeping around the support line of the rising corridor. Technical indicators weaken the buy signal.

Resistance levels: 1900, 1960 | Support levels: 1860, 1800

AUDUSD Hits the Target

The AUDUSD pair managed to achieve our waited target at 0.6920 and settles around it now, settling below the bullish channel’s support line to fall under more correctional pressure in the upcoming sessions, targeting visiting 0.6780 areas as a next main station.

Therefore, the bearish bias will remain suggested in the upcoming sessions, taking into consideration that breaching 0.6945 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to return to the main bullish track again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6850 support and 0.6980 resistance

NZDUSD Faces Solid Support

The NZDUSD pair found solid support at 0.6290, to show some slight bullish bias and begins attempts to build bullish wave, but it loses the positive momentum clearly, which might force the price to decline again and attack the mentioned level in attempt to achieve more bearish correction.

Therefore, we prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend, noting that breaking the mentioned support will push the price to head towards 0.6210 followed by 0.6140 levels as next negative targets, while breaching 0.6365 represents positive factor that will lead the price to recover and achieve gains that start at 0.6445. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6260 support and 0.6380 resistance.

Crude Oil - Global oil supply holds stable levels

The market remains stable, and more and more experts agree that the sanctions imposed by Western countries to limit the export of Russian oil do not bring the expected result. Yesterday, Bloomberg published an article reporting another record of weekly marine fuel supplies from Russia: by February 3, their daily volume increased by 125 K barrels to 3.456M barrels, and China, India and Turkey were the main buyers, the total volume for which amounted to 3.29M barrels. However, transportation through pipelines continues to decline, and in January the figure for Germany and Poland fell to 120K barrels per day. Yesterday it became known that Japan joined the sanctions policy of the G7 and European countries aimed at setting the price limit for Russian oil products transported by sea in the amount of 100 dollars per barrel and 40 dollars per barrel, depending on the category. The restrictions came into effect on February 6 but the limit, as noted, will be reviewed every two months, depending on the market situation.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within the global downwards corridor, gradually approaching the support line around 70.00.

Resistance levels: 83.3, 89 | Support levels: 79.6, 74

XRPUSD - Technical analysis

The XRPUSD pair has been actively growing since the beginning of this year as part of the general market trend. However, at present, the upward dynamics have seriously slowed. The price reached three-month highs around 0.4290, after which it rolled back to 0.3906 (Murrey level [8/8]). Fixation below it will give the prospect of further decline to 0.3662 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 0.3418 (Murrey level [6/8]). If the quotes consolidate above the resistance zone of 0.4050 – 0.4150 (middle line of Bollinger bands, Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murrey level [+1/8]), growth may continue to 0.4395 (Murrey level [+2/8]), 0.4565 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 0.4750.

Technical indicators point to the continuation of the uptrend. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic is reversing upwards from the oversold zone, and the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 0.415, 0.4395, 0.4565, 0.475 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418

GBPJPY Repeats the Negative Closings

The GBPJPY pair confirmed keeping the domination of the bearish bias by providing new negative close below the additional barrier 159.90, to notice forming bearish waves and achieve some negative targets by reaching 157.45.

We expect to gather the additional negative momentum to resume the bearish attack and succeed to crawl below 157.30 obstacle to target 156.65 followed by 155.70 levels direct. The expected trading range for today is between 159.00 and 157.3.

Bitcoin is Trying to Maintain Momentum Above $23,000

Bitcoin is trading near $23,000 today. After Powell's speech yesterday, cryptocurrencies were unable to continue their rally despite the initial euphoria. The mood among cryptocurrencies is mixed, with the biggest loser being Graph which gained nearly 50% yesterday on the AI trend. Let's take a look at some key 'on-chain' indicators like NUPL and SOPR, and see how the balance of short (STH) and long-term (LTH) BTC addresses:

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/ Loss Ratio) indicator tracks the ratio of unrealized profit/loss and shows that the rally has lifted Bitcoin above the average purchase price of the broad market, making the 'average' BTC holder back in profit. Compiling the duration of the negative NUPL in all the bull markets, we observe a historical similarity between the current cycle (166 days) and the bear markets of 2011-12 (157 days) and 2018-19 (134 days). However, the 2015-2016 bear market stood out under this, experiencing a dominance of unrealized losses twice as long as the current one. This could serve as a potential warning signal should BTC return below $20,000.

The ratio between the total unrealized gain held by the market and its annual average could be another indicator of momentum. The momentum metric is currently approaching the equilibrium point and shows similarities to the recent phases of the 2015 and 2018 bull markets. Confirmed breakouts above the equilibrium point (1 - the horizontal red line) coincided with a change in the market's profit structure in the past foreshadowed a longer recovery in sentiment. The length of time elapsed below the equilibrium point was similar in all major bear markets, but reaching a key on-chain level may foreshadow supply resistance - the index is struggling to climb above resistance on a sustained basis, which underscores how important it is to overcome $24,000 on a sustained basis.

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator can be used to check the profit aggregated by different groups of BTC holders. For short-term traders (STH, in red), we see that the STH-SOPR is currently trading above the 1.0 value, showing the first sharp increase in profitability since March 2022. This reflects the large amount of BTC purchased at lower prices in recent months, which can be sold at a profit if sentiment weakens further.

It is positive that not only short-term investors but the broader market also gained after a very deep and prolonged period of losses. However, assessing the LTH (Long Term Holder) group of long-term investors, we can see that the stressful situation has continued nd since the LUNY implosion. Although the group is still, on average, in a loss, there are the first signs of recovery, including the potential formation of an upward LTH-SOPR trend. During the 2018 bull market, long-term investors averaged 291 days in losses; today it's about 265 days.

Bitcoin, W1 interval. The major cryptocurrency is still struggling to climb above the 200-week average, which has turned into resistance from its historic, very strong support in 2022.

USDJPY tests the resistance

The USDJPY pair tested 131.65 level by today’s open, keeping its stability below it, accompanied by stochastic reach to the overbought areas, which supports the chances of resuming the negative trades to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 130.40 and extend to 128.90.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, reminding you that it is important to hold below 131.65 to continue the expected decline. The expected trading range for today is between 130.4 support and 132 resistance.

CADCHF Technical Analysis

The CADCHF pair succeeded to gather the additional negative momentum to confirm the continuation of the previously suggested negativity and notice its crawl towards 0.6840 recently, also, the stability of the additional barrier 0.6920 forms major factor to confirm the domination of the bearish bias, which allows us to suggest suffering additional losses by crawling towards 0.6790 level soon, followed by reaching the additional support 0.6745 that forms the next main target for the upcoming trades.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6880 and 0.6790.

EURUSD Approaches the Target

The EURUSD pair resumed its negative trading to move away from 1.0745 level, as it falls under continuous negative pressure coming by the EMA50, to approach our waited target at 1.0635, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions. Surpassing the mentioned level will push the price to achieve more decline and head towards 1.0515 as a next main target, while the price might witness some temporary sideways fluctuation affected by stochastic positivity until getting negative motive that assists to resume the negative trades to achieve the mentioned target.

On the other hand, we notice that the price completes forming negative pattern that adds more confirmation to the continuation of the expected bearish wave, which has negative targets that surpass 1.0515 to reach 1.0400 areas. Therefore, we will continue suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaching 1.0745 will stop the negative scenario and lead the price to start new recovery attempts on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0575 support and 1.0745 resistance.

Crude Oil Completes Positive Pattern

Crude oil price approached the positive target mentioned in our last report at 80.40, showing some bearish bias by today’s open to test the support base formed at 78.90 after breaching it previously, and consolidating above this level is considered as the first condition to continue the bullish wave on the intraday basis. By taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming inverted head and shoulders’ pattern that surpasses 80.40 to reach 81.60 followed by 84.25 areas, to continue suggesting the bullish trend for the upcoming period.

The EMA50 provides the positive support to the price, to reinforce the continuation of the expected bullish trend, while stochastic might cause some sideways fluctuation and temporary negative trades before resuming the expected rise. Therefore, we expect to witness more rise in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaking 78.90 followed by 78.30 levels will stop the positive scenario and push the price to turn to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 77.50 support and 81.30 resistance.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The NZDUSD pair trades positively to test the key resistance 0.6340, reminding you that consolidating below this level is required to continue the expected negative scenario, which its targets begin by breaking 0.6290 to confirm opening the way to head towards 0.6210 followed by 0.6140 levels.

On the other hand, breaching 0.6340 will push the price to build new bullish wave that its targets begin by testing 0.6390 areas and extend to 0.6490. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6240 support and 0.6350 resistance.