GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair shows calm trades since morning, and AC provides the positive signals, waiting to resume the bullish trend that targets 1.2440 level as a next main station, reminding you that the continuation of the bullish wave depends on the price stability above 1.2150.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2130 support and 1.2290 resistance.

USDCAD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the wave (3) of 5 forms. Now, the wave 5 of (3) is developing, within which the wave i of 5 has appeared, a local correction has ended as the wave ii of 5, and the formation of the wave iii of 5 is starting.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3978 – 1.45. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3315.

AUDUSD - Australian construction sector remains under pressure

Significant problems in the national economy constrain the positive dynamics of the Australian currency: another negative signal came from the real estate sector, where the Q4 total volume of commissioning of new housing decreased by 5.2% to 45.489K, and the indicator in the private sector – by 4.9 % to 28.895K. Construction in other housing projects fell by 5.2%, amounting to 15.618K, and the total cost of work performed in the industry increased by 1.5%, reaching 30.6B Australian dollars. After the June reversal of the trend, the indicators of the construction sector are declining, approaching the historical lows of the pandemic 2020.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a narrow upward corridor, rising in the direction of the resistance line, and the technical indicators strengthen the buy signal.

Resistance levels: 0.7048, 0.7257 | Support levels: 0.6915, 0.6719

XRPUSD - The pair has stabilized after a week of growth

In general, investor enthusiasm has somewhat weakened, and the cryptocurrency market has stabilized in anticipation of new drivers of movement. Currently, further price growth is hindered by uncertainty over the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple. Recall that the regulator insists that the XRP token is an unregistered security, which the company does not agree with. Now the parties have submitted to the court the final versions of their arguments, but no decision has been made yet. The cryptocurrency community estimates Ripple's chances of a successful outcome of the case as high, but even in this case, new lawsuits by the department against the company are not excluded.

Investors are also concerned about the new management of the bankrupt FTX exchange gaining access to assets worth 5.5B dollars, a certain share of which are XRP tokens. It is assumed that they will be used to compensate customers for losses and can be sold, which will put additional pressure on the pair. 

The key for the "bulls" is the level of 0.3906 (Murray level [8/8]), consolidation above which will give the prospect of further growth to the area of 0.4150 (Murray level [+2/8]) and 0.4330 (Fibo retracement 23.6%). The resumption of a serious decline should be expected when the 0.3540 mark is broken down (Murray level [5/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), and in this case the quotes will be able to reach 0.3296 (Murray level [3/8]), 0.3174 (Murray level [2/8]).

Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4150, 0.4330 | Support levels: 0.3540, 0.3296, 0.3174

Shares of Tesla are at 128.

On the daily chart, the price is trying to consolidate within the corrective trend, trading within the corridor with dynamic boundaries of 139 – 126. On the four-hour chart, the upside potential is relatively small, despite holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci initial retracement at 125.

Soon, an attempt to break this level and reduce quotes may follow. Otherwise, a scenario with local growth and achieving the base correction level of 38.2% by Fibonacci around 139 is possible.

USDCAD - macroeconomic statistics did not support the position of the Canadian currency

The industrial goods price index lost 1.1% in December, exceeding the previous month's –0.5% decline, with annual growth slowing to 7.6% from 9.4% earlier. The value for commodities declined 3.1% after the –0.8% correction in November and from 7.9% to 7.5% YoY. The main reason for the negative dynamics is the fall in oil prices on world exchanges, where quotes of the benchmark Brent Crude Oil fell to 86.00.

The US dollar fell below the key support level of 102.000 in the USD Index against the negative statistics from the housing market: the volume of construction of new houses in December amounted to 1.382M, which was lower than 1.401M earlier, and the number of building permits issued amounted to 1.330M compared to 1.351M in November. Investors ignored data on initial jobless claims, which fell to 190.0K from 205.0K in a week.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is growing within the global Triangle pattern with dynamic boundaries 1.3620–1.3300 towards the resistance line, and the technical indicators maintain a sell signal and hint at a correction.

Resistance levels: 1.3523, 1.3697 | Support levels: 1.3409, 1.3224

BTCUSD - The pair's upside potential remains

Positive sentiment associated with monetary factors still prevails. Investors are confident that against the backdrop of declining inflationary pressures, the US regulator will start raising interest rates less rapidly, reducing the increment to 25 basis points from 50 basis points. These actions should lead to a decrease in support for the US currency and at the same time reduce the likelihood of the US economy going into recession, which increases the risk appetite of investors.

The price corrected to the level of 22500 (Murrey level [6/8]), a breakdown of which will give the prospect of developing a decline to the levels of 21250 (Murrey level [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 20000 (Murrey level [4/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The key level for the "bulls" remains the level of 23400, consolidation above which will ensure growth to the levels of 25000 (Murrey level [8/8]) and 26250 (Murrey level [+1/8]).

Resistance levels: 23400, 25000, 26250 | Support levels: 22500, 21250, 20000

GBPUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 of (V) ended, within which the wave (5) of 5 formed, and the development of the upward first wave (1) started. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is forming, within which the wave iii of 3 has ended, a correction has formed as the wave iv of 3, and the wave v of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.2900–1.3500. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1835.

Silver - The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) forms, within which the entry first wave of the lower level 1 of (3) develops. Now, the wave iii of 1 has formed, and a local correction is ending to develop as the wave iv of 1, within which the wave (c) of iv is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 26 – 27. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 21.80.

EUR Drops After French and German PMIs

Flash PMI indices for January from France and Germany were released today at 8:15 am GMT and 8:30 am GMT, respectively. French release turned out to be mixed - the manufacturing index showed a big beat and returned above the 50 threshold while the services index missed expectations and moved deeper into contraction territory. Similarly mixed results were shown by German reading. However, in this case manufacturing data missed expectations while services gauge beat and moved back above 50 point threshold.

France
Manufacturing: 50.8 vs 49.7 expected (49.2 previously)
Services: 49.2 vs 49.9 expected (49.5 previously)

Germany
Manufacturing: 47.0 vs 47.8 expected: (47.1 previously)
Services: 50.4 vs 49.6 expected (49.2 previously)

EURUSD moved lower in a knee-jerk move following the French release but this drop was quickly erased while European indices moved higher. However, upward move on EURUSD was entirely erased following release of German data. DE30 erased big part of the gain but continues to trade slightly above pre-announcement levels.

EURUSD took a hit following release of German PMI data and is looking back towards the 1.0860 support zone.

ETHUSD - Murray analysis

Since the beginning of this year, the ETHUSD pair has been growing within the framework of a general market uptrend: last week, for the first time since September, the quotes rose to the area of 1678.7, but now they have lost some of the positions they won, dropping to the level of 1625 (Murray level [5/8]).

The key for the "bulls" is currently the level of 1650 (Fibo retracement 23.6%), consolidation above it will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 1750 (Murray level [6/8]) and 1875 (Murray level [7/8]). In general, the upward trend in the market remains, as evidenced by the upward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the positive zone. The Stochastic's exit from the overbought zone does not exclude a corrective decline, but its potential is seen as limited by the 1500 mark (Murray level [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands). If the price consolidates below this level, the decline will be able to continue to the area of 1375 (Murray level [3/8]) and 1250 (Murray level [2/8]), but so far this scenario seems less likely.     

Resistance levels: 1650, 1750, 1875 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250

XRPUSD - Current trend

The XRPUSD pair has been growing within the general market trend since the beginning of this month, and this week has reached 0.4290 for the first time since November.

Currently, the quotes have corrected to the 0.4000 area, but the current short-term uptrend will be reversed only after the breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands in the 0.3780 area, and then the asset will be able to return to 0.3418 (Murrey level [6/8]) and 0.3174 (Murrey level [5/8]). The key "bullish" level is the resistance zone 0.4330–0.4395 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%, Murrey level [+2/8]), the breakout of which allows growth to 0.4750 and 0.5219 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%).

Resistance levels: 0.4395, 0.4750, 0.5219 | Support levels: 0.3780, 0.3418, 0.3174