The quotes of WTI Crude Oil have been trading for the second month within a wide lateral range of 111 - 95 and cannot yet determine the direction of further movement.
Market uncertainty is supported by two main factors. The possible introduction of an embargo on Russian oil supplies to EU countries contributes to the growth, a decision on this is being worked out, but has not yet been agreed due to the extreme dependence of a number of European countries on supplies from Russia. On the other hand, the strengthening of the exchange rate is hindered by the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in China, the world's largest exporter of "black gold". The deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the country can seriously undermine demand.
Recent statements by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC are also holding back growth. The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, announced the possibility of bringing additional volumes from reserves to the market if necessary. The cartel's management has again lowered its forecast for the growth of global oil demand this year, citing the impact of the Ukrainian crisis, rising inflation and the development of a pandemic in China. This year, demand may reach 3.36M barrels per day, which is 20K barrels lower than the previous forecast. This situation practically guarantees that OPEC and its allies will maintain the previous insignificant rates of production growth. Nevertheless, despite a number of negative factors for the oil market, fears of the EU's refusal to supply Russian "black gold" still dominate.
The price has risen above the mark of 106.25 (Murray [1/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, and may continue to rise to the levels of 112.50 (Murray [2/8], Fibo retracement of 23.6%) and 118.75 (Murray [3/8]). The key level for the "bears" is at 100 (Murray [0/8]). If consolidated below it, a decline to 93.75 (Murray [-1/8]) and 87.50 (Murray [-2/8], Fibo retracement of 61.8%) may begin.
Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is at the zero line, its volumes are insignificant, and the Stochastic is directed upwards.
Resistance levels: 112.50, 118.75, 125 | Support levels: 100, 93.75, 87.5