September 5. The pound has collapsed to its lowest since 1985

On Monday, the British pound collapsed to its lowest since 1985. At the moment, the exchange rate of the GBP/USD currency pair fell to the level of $ 1.1444, losing 0.55%.

The main pressure on the pound sterling is exerted by the current strengthening of the US dollar, as well as the economic situation in the UK itself. Analysts fear that due to the energy crisis in the country, many households will not be able to pay bills in winter.

In addition, doubts about the ability of the Bank of England to cope with record inflation are another factor for the weakening of the British currency. Experts expect that inflation in the UK will reach 22% next year due to an increase in the cost of energy resources, which could lead to a fall in the economy by 3.4%.

Additional pressure on the pound is exerted by uncertainty about the economic policy of the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss. Today it became known that Truss, the British Foreign Minister, was elected head of the Conservative Party and prime Minister of the country. Truss scored 81.3 thousand votes, thus overtaking ex-Finance Minister Rishi Sunak, for whom 60.4 thousand people voted.

September 7. Macroeconomic events of the day | September 7

The US stock market is declining on Wednesday after the end of the Labor Day holiday weekend. Investors are waiting for new economic data and comments from representatives of the US Federal Reserve System this week.

The next Fed meeting will take place only at the end of the month, but some Fed officials are expected to speak this week, including Jerome Powell. The Fed's Beige Book (economic summaries of regional banks) will be published today.

Market participants expect that the US regulator will continue to raise the rate by another 0.75 percentage points to combat high inflation.

What should I pay attention to today:

The Fed's beige book.

The periodic report of 12 regional banks of the Federal Reserve will give an idea of what is happening in manufacturing, services and other business sectors, as well as consumer behavior. The beige book will be published at 18:00 GMT.

The decision of the Bank of Canada on the rate

Another interesting event of the day will be the meeting of the Board of the Bank of Canada. The regulator is expected to raise the refinancing rate from 2.5% to 3.25%. Such a sharp increase could lead to a steady increase in the Canadian dollar.

Eurozone GDP

Gross domestic product in the eurozone increased by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2022, which exceeded the growth of 0.6% according to the second estimate and was the highest growth rate in three quarters. Despite the current growth, the energy crisis in Europe continues to cause alarm, as the region is cut off from a key natural gas pipeline just a few weeks before the onset of cold weather.

September 9. The London Stock Exchange stopped trading after the death of Elizabeth II

Last night, the London Stock Exchange stopped trading after the news of the death of Queen Elizabeth II appeared. Trading should recover on September 9. In addition, the country's parliament, the government, as well as the legislative bodies of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have also suspended their work.

Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain has died at the age of 96, according to Buckingham Palace. Elizabeth became Queen in 1952, and this year she celebrated the 70th anniversary of her reign, the longest in the history of the country.

The new king of the country was the son of Elizabeth II, 74-year-old Prince Charles. The new British monarch will rule under the name Charles III.

The Bank of England announced that banknotes with the image of Elizabeth II will remain legal tender.

The British pound reacted to the news of the Queen's death by rising to the level of 1.1609. A little earlier, on the news about the deterioration of the Queen's physical condition, the British FTSE 100 index also started to grow, to the level of 7,382.60.

September 13. Gold declines after the release of US inflation data

The price of gold fell sharply on Tuesday after the publication of inflation statistics in the United States. Annual inflation in the country decreased to 8.3% in August after 8.5% in July. Analysts predicted an even bigger decline – up to 8.1%. The fact that the current indicator fell short of forecasts caused expectations of an even tougher approach of the US Federal Reserve System to monetary policy.

The daily minimum price for December gold futures was $1,706.95; the asset collapsed from the level of $1,742.75 per ounce. December silver futures are down 1.05% to $19.652 per ounce.

Analysts note that additional tightening of monetary policy in the United States will be positive for the dollar and the yield of the US government debt and negative, respectively, for commodities and assets used as a «safe haven». According to experts, 82% of analysts already expect the Fed's discount rate to increase by 0.75 percentage points, to 3-3.25% per annum.

Analysts are also confident that a rate hike in September is already a settled issue. Moreover, in November, the rate cut will most likely not happen.

September 15. Ethereum has completed a long-awaited upgrade to its system

Ethereum has completed an important long-awaited upgrade to its system – The Merge. It involves the transition of the altcoin from the Proof-of-Work protocol to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). This means that now the security of the blockchain will be provided not by miners, but by validators – users who have deposited and blocked their share of coins (stacking).

The main purpose of the update is to reduce the problems associated with the growth of the users number. The hard fork is aimed at increasing the speed, efficiency and scalability of the cryptocurrency network so that it can process more transactions and provide a higher level of protection.

The Merge has been in preparation for six years, and many consider it an important milestone in the history of cryptocurrency due to the potential material and ideological consequences. The update should show that a decentralized and public network can work in the most energy efficient way.

In addition, the transition to a new environmentally friendly Proof-of-Stake model will lead to a reduction in the impact on the environment. The new protocol will consume 99.95% less energy than the current mining model. Moreover, the transition of Ethereum to the Proof-of-Stake concept does not involve the use of video cards for mining. And this will lead to a further reduction in prices for graphics accelerators.

September 22. The Bank of England raised the rate by 50 basis points to 2.25%

Following the results of the September meeting, the Bank of England decided to raise the base interest rate from 1.75% to 2.25% per annum. This decision completely coincided with analysts' expectations.

Thus, the rate in the UK has reached its maximum since 2008. Experts note that the rate was raised following the results of the seventh meeting in a row, and the second meeting in a row the increase was 50 basis points.

All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously for the rate increase. Moreover, five were in favor of a 50 bps rise, three were in favor of a 75 bps increase, and one voted for a 25 bps increase.

In addition, the leadership of the British regulator voted to begin reducing the volume of government bonds on the balance sheet of the central bank. Now the volume of government bonds at the disposal of the Bank of England will be reduced by 80 billion pounds over the next 12 months and will reach 758 billion pounds.

September 26. The yield of 10-year British government securities rose to the highest since 2008

Yields of British government securities are rising at the beginning of a new trading week: on Monday, the yield of ten-year bonds rose to 4.246% compared with 3.827% at the close of the market on September 23, which was the highest since 2008. The yield on two-year government securities rose to 4.418% from 3.911%.

The growth is supported by expectations that the Bank of England will have to sharply raise the rate, as the large tax incentives announced by the government last week will inevitably lead to a further increase in inflation.

On September 23, British Finance Minister Quasi Kwarteng announced a large-scale tax cut that will affect individuals and legal entities. It is expected that these measures will increase the budget deficit in the current financial year by more than 70 billion pounds. At the same time, the minister clarified that he does not exclude further tax breaks.

The stimulus measures of the new UK government will require an increase in the issuance of government bonds, which is one of the factors pushing down their value.

Market participants expect the Bank of England to raise the base rate by 100 basis points at the November meeting. However, there is an opinion that the Central Bank may raise the rate until November, in an attempt to contain the fall in the national currency. An increase in interest rates may exacerbate difficulties in the economy, since the tightening of monetary policy reduces the disposable incomes of the population and leads to an increase in the cost of mortgages.

October 3. The pound rose sharply after the British authorities rejected the budget plan

The pound jumped sharply on Monday after the British government announced the cancellation of a plan to reduce taxes for the rich, which was a shock to the market and scared investors.

British Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng said today that the government is ready to abandon the plan to abolish the 45% maximum income tax rate. Against this background, the pound reached $ 1.1263 in a pair with the US dollar.

Last Monday, the British currency fell to a record low of 1.0356. Investors were scared by the fact that tax cuts would spur inflation and lead to an even faster increase in the interest rate. And this will undermine the already struggling UK economy.

Several members of the ruling Conservative Party also opposed the tax reduction program. Citizens themselves also spoke out against it, judging by the results of public opinion polls.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund also sharply criticized the new fiscal package, which includes the rejection of the planned increase in the social security tax rate and a reduction in the tax on the purchase of real estate below 250 thousand pounds. Representatives of the IMF said that this would contradict the tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of England.

October 6. Oil rose above the level of $94 per barrel

Oil quotes on Thursday remain in the area of local highs reached after the announcement of the results of yesterday's meeting of OPEC+ ministers.

The organization decided to reduce quotas for oil production in November by 2 million b/s. Analysts note that this decision signals that Saudi Arabia and the alliance as a whole are striving to stabilize and support oil markets.

At the same time, it is noted that the actual decline in production will be less, since at the moment OPEC+ lags behind the maximum permitted production levels by about 3.6 million b/s. About 1.2 million b/d of the total under–production is accounted for by OPEC countries, and 2.4 million – by OPEC+ countries.

Yesterday, after the end of the ministerial meeting, Brent jumped to the level of $93.90 per barrel. Today, the asset continued to grow and reached $94.44 per barrel. The last time such price values were observed was in mid-September.

Additional support for the oil market was provided by data on fuel reserves in the United States. According to the Ministry of Energy of the country, commercial oil reserves decreased by 1.36 million barrels last week, while analysts predicted an increase of 1.8 million barrels.

Gasoline stocks decreased by 4.73 million barrels, distillate stocks – by 3.44 million barrels. Analysts expected a decrease in gasoline stocks by 1.1 million barrels and a drop in distillate stocks by 1.5 million barrels.

October 5. The New Zealand central bank raised its key rate to a seven-year high

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has raised interest rates by 50 basis points to a seven-year high of 3.5%. The regulator also announced its readiness to further raise the rate in an attempt to contain stubbornly high inflation.

The central bank's decision coincided with analysts' forecasts. The current increase was the eighth since the beginning of the monetary policy tightening cycle, which started a year ago. RBNZ accelerated the step from 25 to 50 points in April and has now brought the rate level to the cyclical highs of 2014-2015.

It also became known that the monetary policy committee discussed an increase even by 75 bps, but eventually stopped at half a point.

«It remains appropriate to continue tightening monetary policy at the same pace to maintain price stability and ensure maximum employment,» said the representative of the regulator.

October 11. The yield on German government bonds has reached its highest in 11 years

The yield on 10-year German government bonds rose to 2.346% per annum, which was the highest since 2011. The reason for the growth was the statements of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the sidelines of the EU summit in Prague.

Scholz expressed support for the joint placement of debt obligations by the countries of the European Union in order to raise funds to help the members of the bloc in the fight against the energy crisis. The funds raised should be distributed between countries in the form of loans, not grants.

Such a position suggests that the German leadership is significantly changing its rhetoric. Previously, Germany resisted the idea of raising funds together with countries that the German authorities consider more wasteful financially.

The change of position came after Scholz was criticized for the announced plan to support the national economy by 200 billion euros due to the energy crisis. Some countries were outraged that this plan is aimed solely at supporting the German economy, without taking into account the interests of other EU countries. And this can cause an imbalance in the block.

October 18. Oil quotes are stuck in the range of $91-93 per barrel

For several days now, the oil market has been showing increased volatility in the range of $91-93 per barrel. The current price of Brent crude oil is $92.10 (yesterday's low of $91.40). North American WTI oil is trading near the level of $85.30 per barrel (yesterday's low is $84.30).

Today, the oil market is on the rise against the background of a local weakening of the US dollar, which is getting cheaper due to increased investor appetite for risk. At the same time, concerns about a potential recession in the global economy limit the growth of oil prices.

In addition, the downward pressure on oil prices continues to be exerted by concerns about the tightening of monetary policy of many major central banks of the world, aimed at curbing inflation. At the same time, China is expected to maintain a soft monetary policy to support the economy in the face of restrictions related to the coronavirus.

The market dynamics is also affected by the decision of OPEC+ to reduce oil production. As you know, in early October, the organization agreed to reduce production quotas by 2 million barrels per day, starting in November.

October 20. France, Spain and Portugal will create Green Energy Corridor

French President Emmanuel Macron said at the EU summit in Brussels that France, Spain and Portugal intend to create a «green corridor» that will replace the MidCat gas pipeline and open access to the energy market of the European Union to the countries of the Iberian Peninsula.

The three countries intend to abandon the MidCat project and start working together to create a new gas pipeline that will be able to bring the Iberian peninsula out of isolation and create a green energy corridor between Portugal and Spain. It is also planned that the new gas pipeline will run through France to the rest of Europe.

Macron stressed that the aim of the project is to unite the energy networks of the EU countries and the soonest transition to green energy.

The new «green hydrogen pipeline» will also be able to transport gas needed by the European energy market due to the ongoing energy crisis.

The next meeting of the heads of state will take place on December 8 and 9 in Alicante at the Euromed summit, which will unite 9 Mediterranean EU states. There, France, Spain and Portugal will discuss the timing, investments, cost allocation and the amount of economic resources that will have to be used when creating a new project.