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February 8. The oil market is on the rise in the middle of the week

Oil quotes accelerated growth on Wednesday amid hopes for a recovery in demand in China and fears of supply disruptions due to earthquakes in Turkey.

In addition, risky assets, including oil, were supported by statements made yesterday by the head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell, which turned out to be not as «hawkish» as the market expected.

The current price of Brent crude oil is $84.80 per barrel. Yesterday, the asset quotes were located at $81.60 per barrel. North American WTI crude is trading near $78.30 after yesterday's decline to $74.80 per barrel.

Additional support for the oil market is provided by the words of the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, that the recovery of China's economy may proceed at a more active pace than expected. And this, in turn, will lead to a global increase in demand for oil and natural gas.

Today, data from the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country will have an impact on the market. Analysts predict an increase in oil reserves by about 2.5 million barrels. Yesterday's report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated a reduction in reserves in the United States by 2.18 million barrels per week.

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February 15. The Floki token rate jumped by 46% after Elon Musk's tweet

The Floki token (FLOKI) exchange rate increased by 46% after the head of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, published photos of his Shiba Inu dog named Floki.

On February 15, the billionaire posted a photo of his pet on the social network and called him the new CEO of Twitter, noting that Floki is well versed in numbers. «The new CEO of Twitter is amazing,» the billionaire wrote.

As a result, Floki – the management token in the ecosystem of the same name, which includes the gaming metaverse, the NFT marketplace, the FlokiFi DeFi project and the educational crypto platform – has sharply jumped in price.

Other meme «dog» cryptocurrencies also reacted with a slight increase. Dogecoin has risen in price by 6% over the past day, Shiba Inu – by 4.5%.

Elon Musk announced that he will name his puppy Shiba inu Floki on June 25, 2021. Then the billionaire's tweet caused the Shiba Inu cryptocurrency quotes to rise by 9%. In December of the same year, after the billionaire published a photo of Floki, the value of the Santa Floki token increased by 4000%, but since then it has fallen to zero values.

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March 1. Oil began to decline on signals of rising stocks in the US

On the first day of March, oil quotes began to decline after the release of data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on another increase in fuel reserves in the United States.

The price of Brent crude oil fell from the level of $84.10 to $82.70 per barrel. North American WTI oil shows similar dynamics: a decline to $76.20 after yesterday's growth to $77.65 per barrel.

According to API statistics, crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 6.2 million barrels last week. Today, we should pay attention to similar data from the US Department of Energy. Analysts assume that the official report will indicate an increase in reserves by about 500 thousand barrels.

Yesterday, oil showed strengthening amid optimism about the recovery of the Chinese economy. In particular, the Purchasing managers' Index (PMI) in the processing industry of China rose in February to 52.6 points (from 50.1 points a month earlier), reaching a record high since 2012. Analysts on average expected a more moderate increase, up to 50.5 points.

The PMI of the service sector in February rose to 56.3 points from 54.4 points in January. The indicator has updated the maximum since March 2021.

February 28. The IMF refused to ban cryptocurrencies

The International Monetary Fund intends to abandon the idea of a complete ban on cryptocurrencies. This was stated by the Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva during her speech at the meeting of G20 finance ministers in Bangalore, India.

Instead of a ban, the fund plans to differentiate and regulate crypto assets. «We are in favor of regulating the world of digital money, and this is a top priority, despite the fact that there is still a lot of confusion in the classification of digital money,» Georgieva said.

To date, the IMF's first goal is to distinguish between government-backed digital currencies of central banks and publicly issued crypto assets and stablecoins.

The head of the fund also stated that fully secured stablecoins create a fairly good space for the economy, and unsecured crypto assets are speculative and high-risk assets that require more regulation. The IMF still believes that crypto assets cannot be legal tender, since they are not secured by anything.

Moreover, if states fail to develop a mechanism to combat money laundering through cryptocurrencies and protect investors, the IMF does not rule out a complete ban on the use of an innovative tool in the global economy.

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March 6. Gold is declining in anticipation of the speech of the Fed’s head

On Monday, gold prices are mostly declining, moving away from the maximum in 2.5 weeks. Pressure on the precious metal is exerted by expectations of the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell, which will take place later this week. Market participants hope to clarify the prospects of the central bank's monetary policy.

The current quote of gold paired with the dollar is $1856.45. During the day, the asset fell from the level of $1863 to $1854 per troy ounce. At the same time, the dollar index increased by 0.1%, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

In addition to Powell's speech, investors are waiting for Friday's data on the US labor market. At the end of the week, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report on the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector will be published. A weaker than expected indicator will indicate that the US Federal Reserve rate will not rise too rapidly, and this will support gold.

Spot silver prices declined to the level of $21.17, recovering during the day to the current level of $21.23 per ounce. Platinum fell by 1% to $968.09, and palladium fell in price by 1.8% to $1,426 per ounce.

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March 17.  Economists recorded a peak drop in oil amid banking turmoil

Analyzing the dynamics of oil prices in recent days, economists have come to the conclusion that oil has suffered the biggest losses in a week this year. The drop in raw materials is mainly due to significant shocks in the world markets in the banking sector.

Recall that on March 11, the 16th largest US bank Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was declared bankrupt. The bankruptcy of this major Silicon Valley bank was the second largest in U.S. history after Washington Mutual Bank, whose collapse in 2008 led to a drop in stock prices in Europe and the closure of another bank in the United States.

Today, futures for North American WTI crude oil fell below $68 per barrel. At the end of the week, the drop was about 10%. The current price of the asset is $67.17 per barrel. Brent oil is also showing a decline – to the level of $73.40 per barrel.

Market participants are waiting for a reaction to the current collapse in prices from OPEC+. However, there is an opinion that the cartel will not take any action until the price of Brent crude oil falls below $70 per barrel for a long period of time.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency predicts that the oil market will be in surplus in the first half of 2023, despite the reduction in oil production in Russia in March. The European Union expects that the average price of Brent crude oil this year will be $84.8 per barrel.

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April 17. The oil market is unstable at the beginning of a new trading week

Oil quotes show high volatility at the beginning of the new trading week in the price range of $85.65-86.50 per barrel.

The current Brent quote is $85.67 per barrel, WTI oil is trading in the range of $81.70-82.60 per barrel. Last week, Brent rose by 1.4%, WTI – by 2.3%, and both types of oil rose in price for the fourth week in a row.

The market was supported by the forecast of the International Energy Agency published on Friday, according to which the supply deficit on the world market in the third quarter will amount to 2 million barrels per day. The IEA noted that another reduction in production by OPEC+ countries threatens a further decline in supply and an increase in oil prices at a time when inflationary pressure is already damaging consumers.

In the second quarter, the deficit will be 400 thousand b/d. Previously, the IEA expected demand to exceed supply only in the third quarter. The average deficit in 2023 is estimated at 800 thousand b/d.

At the same time, OPEC, which published its monthly forecast the day before the IEA, still expects an increase in oil demand in 2023 by 2.3 million barrels per day (up to 101.89 million b/d) – above the pre-Covid level.

Also today it became known that the countries of G7 intend to maintain the ceiling of prices for Russian oil at $60 per barrel.

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April 24. Binance allowed deposits with Russian cards

The Binance crypto exchange has returned to users from Russia the opportunity to replenish deposits using Qiwi wallets and Russian bank cards.

The Binance support service states: «You can make a deposit on our platform using a Russian card via Qiwi. At the same time, all Visa, Mastercard and other cards issued in Russia are supported.»

Among the currencies that can be used to replenish the deposit, rubles, Turkish lira, British pounds, euros, Kazakhstani tenge, Australian dollar, Ukrainian hryvnia, Czech crown and a number of others are offered. At the same time, there is no US dollar.

Recall that in March last year, against the background of events in Ukraine, the crypto exchange announced the suspension of operations using Mastercard and Visa bank cards issued in Russia. In 2023, Binance also banned Russian citizens and persons residing in the country from making transactions with dollars and euros through the money transfer service between individuals (P2P) in connection with the tenth package of sanctions adopted by the EU.

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May 5. Apple's profit in the first half of the year fell by 9%

The manufacturer of phones and smart devices Apple has presented a profit report in the first half of the 2022-2023 fiscal year, which ended on April 1.

The company's net profit decreased by 9% year-on-year and reached $54.158 billion. Diluted earnings per share were $3.41 compared to $3.62 a year earlier. The company's revenue for the reporting period increased by 4% to $211.99 billion.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2022-2023, Apple's net profit decreased by 3.4% to $24.16 billion. Diluted earnings per share were $1.52, the same as a year earlier. The company's revenue for the reporting period decreased by 2.5% to $94.836 billion.

At the same time, revenue from iPhone sales in the second quarter increased by 1.5% y/y and amounted to $51.334 billion, Mac – decreased by 31.3% to $7.4168 billion, iPad – by 12% to $6.67 billion.

Sales of devices in the Wearables, Home and Accessories segment (which includes Apple Watch and AirPods) showed a decrease of 0.6% to $8.757 billion, and sales of the Services division rose by 5.5% to $20.907 billion.

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May 17. The pound remains under pressure after the speech of the head of the Bank of England

The British pound sterling has been showing a significant drop in recent days in a pair with the US dollar, falling to the level of 1.2422. On Wednesday, after a speech by the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who said that the central bank expects price pressure to ease in April, the pound remains under pressure.

Speaking at the annual world conference at the UK Chamber of Commerce, Bailey said that if price pressures prove more sustainable, further policy tightening will be required. At the same time, he added that there were signs of some weakening of the labor market.

Yesterday, data on unemployment in the UK were published: it rose to 3.9%. However, the growth rate of wages, including bonuses, remained unchanged, and this forced market participants to moderate expectations for further rate increases.

The current quote of the GBP/USD pair is 1.2477. The EUR/GBP pair also shows a drop during the day – to the level of 0.8677.

The Bank of England began tightening monetary policy at the end of 2021. Since then, the British central bank has raised its key interest rate by 400 basis points in total. However, to date, market opinions regarding the next step of the central bank are divided.

Thus, the probability of a rate hike at the June meeting of the Bank of England by 25 basis points is 66%. Analysts note that the further steps of the regulator will depend on the incoming macroeconomic data, while the inflation report for April, which is expected next week, will be important.

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May 30. Food inflation in the UK has fallen for the first time in two years

According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), food inflation in Great Britain fell for the first time in two years from a record 15.7% in April to 15.4% in May. The last time the indicator decreased was in August 2021.

Analysts note that the reason for the decline was the fall in electricity prices and the cost of production costs.

According to the BRC, price inflation for canned food rose to 13.1% from 12.9% in April, and for perishable products – fell from 17.8% to 17.2%.

At the same time, the consumer price index presented by BRC increased by 0.2% compared to April – up to 9% – due to the low exchange rate of the pound, increased labor costs, as well as electricity bills for stores.

Earlier, the National Statistical Service of Great Britain reported that real incomes of the population continue to fall at the fastest pace in ten years against the background of the inflation rate exceeding the increase in wages. As a result of record inflation, there is a wave of strikes in the country – employees of railway companies, lawyers, airport employees, postmen and workers in other fields come out to protest.

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June 16. Natural gas prices in Europe jumped by 30% due to the closure of the field

Natural gas prices in Europe have soared by 30% due to the closure of the largest Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. This decision was made after a series of earthquakes that damaged thousands of homes.

Although a final decision has not yet been made, the official closure of the field is expected after a government meeting at the end of June. This deposit is the oldest in the country and it has been in operation for 60 years.

This news caused a significant increase in gas futures prices, and then prices stabilized and rose by 10%, reaching 42.16 euros per megawatt hour.

The closure of Groningen is due to frequent earthquakes caused by gas extraction, which have led to the destruction of thousands of homes in the region since the 1980s. Plans to close the field were accelerated after a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Mark Rutte and accusations of an ineffective government response to the problems.

The Groningen field will operate at minimum levels until the final closure and about 2.8 billion cubic meters of gas will still be produced.

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September 8. German inflation slowed to 6.4% in August

According to the final data of the German Federal Statistical Office, in August consumer prices that meet European Union standards increased by 6.4% compared to the same period last year.

Thus, inflation slowed down from 6.5% in July. The result corresponds to the preliminary assessment and forecasts of experts.

On a monthly basis, prices for consumer goods and services increased by 0.4%, after an increase of 0.5% in July.

Inflation, calculated only by German standards, also slowed down – in August the indicator fell to 6.1% y/y from 6.2% in July. This was the minimum growth in the last three months.

The cost of energy in Germany accelerated its growth to 8.3% from 5.7%. The cost of food increased by 9% (in July – by 11%).

Core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, remained stable and amounted to 5.5% y/y in August, remaining at the level of the previous month.

Preliminary data on the dynamics of inflation in Germany in September will be published on September 28.

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September 11. Oil market news

On Monday morning, oil prices remain stable in the area above $90 per barrel.

The current quotation of Brent crude oil is $90.30. The maximum reached at the end of last week is $90.83. North American WTI oil shows similar dynamics: the current price is $86.97 per barrel, Friday's maximum is $87.75.

These marks were the highest since November last year. Over the past week, prices for Brent rose by 2.4%, and for WTI – by 2.3%.

The current slight decline in prices is probably a technical correction. Although the oil market is still under pressure from concerns related to the slowdown in economic growth in China.

China returned to inflation in August, but the growth rate was slower than expected. Consumer prices (CPI index) in the country last month increased by 0.1% in annual terms, which was below the average analysts' expectations of 0.2%. In July, the decline was 0.3%.

This week, attention should be paid to the publication of OPEC's monthly report on the oil market, which is scheduled for Tuesday. And on Wednesday, the US Department of Energy will present a weekly report on crude oil reserves in the country.

Re: ForexMart's Forex News

The main events by the morning: March 21

The Fed kept its key rate at 5.5%. Jerome Powell said that a rate hike could stifle the country's economy and budget due to rising public debt costs. At the same time, inflationary pressures are still too high to mitigate monetary policy.

The US dollar is getting cheaper after the Fed meeting, which did not bring surprises to the market. The Fed's forecasts for 2025 suggest only three rate cuts instead of the previously expected four, which somewhat reduces the prospects for the dollar and highlights uncertainty in the US economic future, including the risk of continued inflation.

There are more and more problems with the supply of Russian oil to India. Reliance, India's largest energy company, has stopped accepting Sovcomflot tankers with oil on board due to fears of secondary sanctions. The company requires a change of the carrier.

German companies are concerned that the EU is losing its attractiveness for doing business. More than half of the surveyed German entrepreneurs (56%) noted a decrease in the attractiveness of the EU as a business platform over the past 5 years, while only 7% of executives see the situation in a positive light. The main reasons were the growing bureaucracy and trade restrictions.

Japan is demonstrating a reduction in trade with Russia. In February, total exports from Japan to Russia decreased by 33.6%, while imports from Russia fell by 10.2%. Nevertheless, there is an increase in certain sectors: LNG supplies from Russia increased by 8%, fish and fish products – by 9%, Japanese motorcycles to Russia – by 13.2%.

The U.S. Department of Justice is preparing to file a new antitrust lawsuit against Apple. This time, the company is accused of restricting access to iPhone hardware features. This case will be the third time in the last 14 years that the agency is suing the tech giant, which may be part of a broader Biden administration campaign against the dominance of large technology companies in the United States.

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The price of gold continues to break records

Gold, which ended trading at a historic high on Thursday, continues to rise on Monday amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On Friday, due to Easter, the exchanges of the United States and many European countries were closed.

The price of June gold contracts at the close of trading on the New York Comex exchange on Thursday was $2,238.4 per ounce. On Monday, the futures price rose 1.8% to reach $2,286.35. In March, the price of gold increased by 8.9%, and for the entire first quarter – by 8%.

Analysts note that the unprecedented rally in gold was caused by softer inflation data in the United States, which increased expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in June. The consumer price index (PCE) in the United States in February increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, which was lower than analysts' expectations, who predicted an inflation rate of 0.4%.

Markets estimate the probability of a Fed base rate cut in June at about 70%, and also expect that by the end of 2024 it will decrease by 75 basis points from the current level of 5.25-5.5% per annum.

As you know, lower interest rates create a favorable environment for gold, increasing its attractiveness as an investment asset. Gold investors act with confidence that the Fed will prefer to lower interest rates regardless of whether inflation reaches the target level.
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