Topic: Trending Market

Hello, I was using for three months an Expert Advisor created by "FSB Pro" and it was going pretty well until the beginning of this bullish move in EURUSD. I read that many Expert Advisors fail when the market is in a strong trend - trending condition. With this bullish move in the EURUSD, my account blew. I lost a lot of money. I'm writing here, hoping to receive instructions that will help me improve how I'm using the program.

Let's look at the strategy I was using:
Instrument: EURUSD
Timeframe: M5
Initial Account: $1000
Leverage: 1:200
Acceptance Criteria: 10 Maximum ambiguous bars and 100 minimum count of trades.
Data horizon: 100,000
Strategy Properties: Entry amount 0.01, Add 0.01, Reduce 0.01. Only BE with 2065 points.
Opening Point of the Position: Bollinger Bands
Opening Logic Condition: Moving Average Crossover
Closing Point of the Position: Trailing Stop Limit (Initial Stop Loss = 859 points and Take Profit 934 points)

Some considerations: The reason I choose M5 is due to the fact that I have better results in less time. Not to mention, that there is less stagnation.

MY QUESTIONS:
1. What is the best strategy to improve Expert Advisor performance on a trending martket?
2. Considering your experience, there is any timeframe that can perform better than the M5 (with little stagnation)?

Thanks for your guidance, guys!

Re: Trending Market

How it happens that you have such big loss when you have a Stop Loss?

Re: Trending Market

This happened to me also and I was lost. The portfolio created in EA studio lost a lot of money even with stop loss...and some strategies had signals not based on TP and SL.
I had about 27 strategies in the portfolio pruned from running in a demo account. When the market started going up. It continually started selling so after each bar instead of buying..it sent signals of selling and the market went up 170 pips. By the time it got there on 0.01 lots lost over $650 of the account in a day.

Popov
You need to do a video on some strategy that caters to market moving over 150 pips in a single day....I always tend to miss out on such trends and find the EA generated also mostly miss such moves.
GBPJPY is one pair that tends to move 50 pips in a matter of minutes.

Thanks

Re: Trending Market

Popov wrote:

How it happens that you have such big loss when you have a Stop Loss?

Hi there, my friend! It has stop loss, but the strategy "reduces" open trades even before reaching stop loss. Therefore, Expert Advisor will open and close before reaching Take Profit and Stop Loss. I hope I have made myself understood.

Re: Trending Market

fmFXbr

Please consider abandoning the 5 minute time frame and move to 240 minute, create a lot of good strategies with tight standards in the acceptance criteria.

The faster time frames are for donating your funds to the broker unless you are a very astute strategy developer.

Use a fixed lot size as variabkle can not be reliably optimized.

Keep the lot size small, use more strategies so as to spread the risk.

Because we have the same move last week and your account did not blow, I wonder if you have been optimizing the strategy often enough and I wonder what the monte carlo showed. The faster time frames have to be reoptimized often, they are actually like suicide to use unless you can be watching all the time.

Re: Trending Market

Mine is on H1..the other thing I notice is that EAs do many SELL transactions and a a FEW Buy as the market has little movement and are waiting for the exit signal...the market goes up 150 pips and even though very few NEW trades are added on H1...all the sells now give massive loss and the few buys dont have much to contribute as very few in number.

Most importantly when portfolio is made...there is no analysis tool to highlight specific strategies...the same that I had talked about in another post.
So 10011 is doing bad...which strategy is it in the portfolio when the json file is loaded back in EA Studio. There is no opportunity for a newbie like me to learn and weed out strategies with such indicators that fail during large movements. Ok overall will make less but not have a $1000 account wiped out in a day.

Please see the screenshot...this is typical of what happens to my EAs..lot of sell trades and the market moves...no new trades added and left with huge loss.

Just trying to learn from all of you as to what I am doing wrong...or better capitalize on such movements.
Regards

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Re: Trending Market

When selecting a period to optimize and backtest, ie the data period, you have to ensure that there is rising and falling market in relatively equal portion.

In that way the strategy gets built with equal bias for buy and sell.

Some markets trend up for a long time, or they may trend down for a long time..... Unless you backtest on a balanced period, your strategy will have a bias to one or the other.

You can use the tools in 'market' to test your strategy in different periods by changing the dates of the data.

You might spend some time learning about 'Walk Forward' testing so that you can do more testing of your strategies before putting them on charts.

Re: Trending Market

I really appreciate your words. Unfortunately, I have no profile for larger timeframes. Possibly, I will switch to a 240-minute chart in the future. However, I wanted to start with scalping strategies. Anyway, thank you for the advice, my friend!

Blaiserboy wrote:

create a lot of good strategies with tight standards in the acceptance criteria.

Please, what did you mean by that?

Thanks!

Re: Trending Market

like win/loss should be set to .75

If you are sticking to the scalping........ do walk forward on a few years data to make sure that you have covered all of the possibilities

Re: Trending Market

You may want to rethink your 'protection', perhaps add more exit logic.

You can have a few exits...... you do not have to depend on the stop loss alone.

You will have to devise some protections to keep your capital and test them extensively.

You need not feel too bad, I have been through these disasters and made far bigger mistakes than you can imagine.

and, you can know also that I am still making mistakes..... hahaha

Re: Trending Market

One thing you can do that is simple and effective is to use a moving average crossover to close out when the trend changes..

That will allow you to work with narrower stops and ensure also that there is no extreme losses as happened this week.

Re: Trending Market

Blaiserboy wrote:

One thing you can do that is simple and effective is to use a moving average crossover to close out when the trend changes..

That will allow you to work with narrower stops and ensure also that there is no extreme losses as happened this week.

I will do that. Amazing advices. As always! Thanks a lot, my dear friend!

Re: Trending Market

Blaiserboy wrote:

You might spend some time learning about 'Walk Forward' testing so that you can do more testing of your strategies before putting them on charts.

Thanks for taking the time to share your experience. I do backtest on all the available broker data so on H1 more than a year. Anyways will look at the MA crossover as exit for sure.

Any ideas on how to perform the walk forward test. Is it in FSB? What tool are you using? I know a competitor product has it.

Regards,

Re: Trending Market

to do a 'walk forward' in FSBPro, you need only change the dates of the data. and those dates are located in the 'Market' tab at the top of the screen.

FSBPro does the tests instantly whereas other softwares will take a long time.

Personally, I try to avoid using other software, I have found that FSBPro does a terrific job.

Re: Trending Market

Blaiserboy wrote:

One thing you can do that is simple and effective is to use a moving average crossover to close out when the trend changes..

Very interesting -- thanks for the advice.  I appreciate the things I learn on this forum.   I've revisited some strategies and incorporated that indicator.  And I also found I could lower the SL (as you suggest) and still maintain excellent statistics.

Re: Trending Market

Steve

I am not so sure that is the very best solution for trend change, I think we have to do some research, there may be a few things we can use.

I know that will work and we can adjust the lengths of the averages to find an ideal.

Perhaps others have ideas they will post in here.

As luck would have it, I had done a large collection using this idea and made the mistake of deleting it....... I would have had some ideas from that.  oh well, I can redo it. lol

Re: Trending Market

Blaiserboy wrote:

I am not so sure that is the very best solution for trend change

That's okay.  I wasn't necessarily expecting a "best" solution.  Previously I didn't have a reference point of how to think about incorporating some protection for a dramatic trend change.  And your suggestion then provided some insight on how an experienced trader might approach the problem.

If in your archaeological work you happen to excavate some lost treasures and ideas you used in the past, I'd certainly be interested in giving them a try.

Thanks...

Re: Trending Market

Blaiserboy wrote:

fmFXbr


, I wonder if you have been optimizing the strategy often enough and I wonder what the monte carlo showed. .


Hi dear,
I always wonder how to do a regular optimization for my start.
How donyou do it?
Do you do it each day?week?month?

Isn’t might be considered over optimization?
Thank you

Re: Trending Market

alamehmazen123

Each strategy has its own personality and therefore has to be studied as to when or how often to reoptimize.

In an old thread Popov told us of how his friend used to reoptimize every hour, I guess he was trading a one minute chart.

Proibably a good approach is to test how a strategy performs over a bunch of periods using old data and determione how often reoptimization is needed.

There is no set rule or formula. We have to research that for ourselves with each strategy or group of strategies. We have to devise our own approaches.

Re: Trending Market

Steve.....

The best protection may be the NBars, just close each trade after so many bars and all would be good. I am using numbers near 20 for that.. a minimum of 10 and a max of 30.

I am leaving space for the strategy generator to add more closing logic, I want to see if there is something common to a few of them.  So far I do not have any that show up often.

So........... I am using the ma cross  20 and 40 and Nbars and will add something else if I find anything.

signed

your friendly archeologist from the past. lol

Re: Trending Market

Blaiserboy wrote:

The best protection may be the NBars, just close each trade after so many bars and all would be good. I am using numbers near 20 for that.. a minimum of 10 and a max of 30.

Nice -- thanks.  Another pearl of wisdom...