Topic: Too good to be true?
I've been playing around with Monte Carlo simulation trying to evaluate the tool, and then the strategy. Having read some relative sites and papers regarding the simulation with Monte Carlo I still haven't come to a decision as to what a good graph looks like. Looking at the Confidence Table below one can assume this look pretty good. The settings are as follows (25 Counts):
Randomize history data: Yes
Randomize payout: Yes
Randomize slippage: Yes
Randomly skip position entry: Yes
Randomize indicator parameter: Yes
Randomize backtest starting bar: No
Data range change ATR %: 20
Minimum payout %: 70
Maximum slippage (points): 5
Skip entry probability %: 2
Indicator change probability %: 20
Indicator max change %: 20
I tried few valuations and realised that the default settings are a good set. However, I don't think the indicator change probability should be as high. Especially when we consider one modifies/updates their strategy often? What is your take? The confidence table looks took good to be true..?