GOLD PRICE PREDICTION – GOLD SLIPS LOWER AS FED REMAINS ON HOLD

Gold prices moved lower on Wednesday but was unable to pierce through the July lows.  Gold faces continued headwinds as the Fed remained on hold during the monetary policy meeting but signaled in their commentary that rates would likely rise in September.  Fed funds are now pricing in nearly a 90% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates when they meet in December.
Technical Picture

Gold prices continued to grind lower, but were unable to pierce through the July lows.  The weekly trend line which was broken, continues to point to lower prices for the yellow metal.  Support is seen near the July lows at 1,211, while resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,224. A break of the 1,211 level would lead to a test of the July 2017 lows at 1,204.  Momentum is mixed, and nuetral as prices cannot seem to break down or rise. The continued tariff treat by President Donald Trump has been offset by higher interest rates. The 10-year treasury yield pushed through the 3% level, which buoyed the U.S. dollar and generated headwinds for gold prices.  Since gold is priced in U.S. dollars a stronger greenback makes gold more expensive in other currencies.
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GOLD PRICE FORECAST – GOLD MARKETS FAIL TO HOLD ONTO GAINS DURING THURSDAY

Gold markets initially tried to rally during the day on Thursday but then rolled over at the $1220 level. The market looks as if it is continuing to struggle longer term, but I think there is support underneath that could jump in and give this market a bit of a lift.
Gold markets have drifted a bit during the trading session on Thursday, reaching down towards the $1215 region. The market has significant support at the $1210 level, but even more at the $1200 level as far as I can see. I think that it is only a matter of time before the markets turn around and bounce from here, and I think that it could be a nice buying opportunity if you are patient enough to wait for it. In the short term though, I think that rallies will probably continue to be sold off, as gold simply cannot get out of its own way.

Selling rallies on short-term charts might continue to be the best way between now and $1200, but I think that the volatility will continue to be stomach churning. With the jobs number coming out today, it’s very likely that we will continue to see continued bouncing around, but I suspect that any flush lower at this point will probably be met with buying pressure. If we were to break down below the $1200 level, it’s very likely that we could break down rather significantly from that point. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will be very lucrative for the longer-term trader, but they obviously need some type of stability to start buying. Again though, if we break down below the $1200 level, then I think we are looking at another $200 to the downside, which of course would be a nice long term trade as well. The next couple of days should be crucial for gold.
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PRICE OF GOLD FUNDAMENTAL DAILY FORECAST – MOVE OVER $1228.60 SHIFTS MOMENTUM TO UPSIDE

Today’s price action in gold is likely to be determined by direction of the U.S. Dollar. There are no major economic reports so the movement in the dollar is likely to be driven by trade concerns. The fact that big money is net short gold could have a contrarian influence on the price action.
Gold futures are trading slightly higher early Monday as aggressive counter-trend investors try to capitalize on a steady U.S. Dollar and Friday’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom chart pattern.
At 0332 GMT, December Comex Gold is trading $1224.50, up $1.20 or +0.10%.
After hitting a 17-month low on Friday, gold rebounded to close higher as investors reacted to mixed U.S. economic data and increased tensions over US-China trade.
On Friday, the U.S. government reported that job growth slowed more than expected in July as employment in the transportation and utilities sectors fell, but a drop in the unemployment rate suggested that labor market conditions continued to tighten.
Additionally, China proposed retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to the Trump administration’s threat of steeper tariffs on the Asian economy.
Also driving the dollar lower on Friday was the announcement that China’s central bank would require banks to keep reserves equivalent to 20 percent of their clients’ foreign exchange forwards positions from Monday, in a move to stabilize the Yuan currency.
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GBP/USD RATE EYES FRESH 2018-LOWS AS BEARISH SERIES TAKES SHAPE

BRITISH POUND TALKING POINTS
The British Pound extends the decline following the Bank of England (BoE) meeting, with GBP/USD at risk of exhibiting a more bearish behavior over the days ahead as it carves a series of lower highs & lows.
GBP/USD RATE EYES FRESH 2018-LOWS AS BEARISH SERIES TAKES SHAPE
Renewed fears surrounding Brexit appears to be weighing on the British Pound as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney warns an undesired scenario may ultimately require a rate-cut in the U.K., and the central bank may move to the sidelines after delivering a 25bp hike earlier this month as ‘the economic outlook could be influenced significantly by the response of households, businesses and financial markets to developments related to the process of EU withdrawal.’
GBP/USD DAILY CHART

The break of the July-low (1.2956) paired with the closing price below the 1.2950 (23.6% expansion) hurdle brings the downside targets on the radar, with the next region of interest coming in around the 1.2800 (50% expansion) handle followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2630 (38.2% expansion) to 1.2640 (23.6% retracement).
Keeping a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as the oscillator appears to be snapping the uptrend trend from June, with a break of trendline support raising the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as the momentum indicator comes up against oversold territory.
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USD/JPY PRICE FORECAST – US DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST JAPANESE YEN

The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen during trading on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of noise in this market. The ¥111 level underneath does offer quite a bit of demand though.
The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen to kick off Tuesday, but quite frankly we find quite a bit of noise below near the ¥111 level that could turn things around and have the buyers jumping back in. The market of course continues to react to the trade war fears and the like, so this could be a bit of “Ground Zero” for reaction to the headlines. I believe it is only a matter of time before we turn around though, probably based upon some type of headline coming out.
The pair does tend to move in reaction to risk appetite as well, so keep that in mind. It makes a lot of sense that this could be where much of the trading activity is found over the next 24 hours, but I would say that if we break down below the ¥111 level, it’s very likely that we go down to the ¥110.50 level, and then possibly the ¥110 level after that. To the upside, the ¥112 level looks to be resistive, so at this point I’m simply looking for return to the recent highs, not necessarily a major move to the upside, at least not until we get more of a resolution to the trade tensions between China and the United States. There doesn’t seem to be high hopes for that in the short run, so I think we are going to continue to see choppy and range bound trading, which of course is typical for this time of year anyway.
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NZD/USD REBOUND VULNERABLE TO DOVISH RBNZ FORWARD GUIDANCE

TRADING THE NEWS: RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND (RBNZ) INTEREST RATE DECISION
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting may do little to boost the appeal of the New Zealand dollar as the central bank is widely expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.75% in August.
The RBNZ may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘the recent weaker GDP outturn implies marginally more spare capacity in the economy than we anticipated,’ and Governor Adrian Orr & Co. may continue to tame expectations for higher interest rates as officials argue that ‘the best contribution we can make to maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low and stable inflation, is to ensure the OCR is at an expansionary level for a considerable period.’ In turn, more of the same from the RBNZ may produce a bearish reaction in NZD/USD especially as the Federal Reserve remains on course to further normalize monetary policy.
However, like the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), an unexpected shift in the RBNZ’s forward-guidance for monetary policy should heighten the appeal of the New Zealand dollar, with a batch of hawkish rhetoric likely to fuel the recent rebound in NZD/USD as it encourages bets for higher interest rates.
To no surprise, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.75% in June, with the central bank noting that it is ‘well positioned to manage change in either direction – up or down – as necessary.’ The central bank went onto say that the ‘he recent weaker GDP outturn implies marginally more spare capacity in the economy than we anticipated,’ and it seems as though Governor Adrian Orr & Co. will stick to the sidelines over the coming months as officials note that ‘the best contribution we can make to maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low and stable inflation, is to ensure the OCR is at an expansionary level for a considerable period.’
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BITCOIN FALLS SHARPLY AS SEC DELAYS ETF DECISION UNTIL SEPTEMBER

Bitcoin takes an early hit as the broader market continues to slide following the SEC’s latest delay, the bears firmly in control early on.
Bitcoin slid by 6.96% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 1.16% fall, to end the day at $6,714. Bitcoin falls after the Securities exchange and commission postponed the approval of Bitcoin’s ETF until September.
Yesterday, a bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin move through to an early afternoon intraday high $7,150, Bitcoin breaking through the first major resistance level at $7,116.07, before easing back, while holding on to $7,000 levels through the afternoon.
Late in the day, a broad-based market sell-off saw Bitcoin slide through the day’s first major support level at $6,809.47 to call on support at the second major support level at $6,674.93, with an intraday low $6,677 before recovering to $6,700 levels by the day’s end.
Of greater significance on the day was Bitcoin’s pullback through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, a further reaffirmation of a resumption to the extended bearish trend formed back at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999.
News of yet another postponement by the SEC on approving a Bitcoin ETF did the damage on Tuesday, the continued delay in approvals suggesting that there is more to the postponing than meets the eye, with the markets all too aware of the delayed release of unified rules and regulations by the G20.
With Bitcoin and the broader market suffering at the hands of the crypto bears, the sensitivity to any news has weighed significantly, in spite of a delay being quite different to a decline.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 6.96% to $6,537.8, with Tuesday’s late sell-off continuing into the early hours of the morning, investors unable to shake off the jitters following the SEC’s latest decision to delay.
The early morning slide saw Bitcoin pullback from an opening $6,718.7, through the first major support level at $6,544 and the second major support level at $6,374, to a morning low $6,360.5, before finding much need support to recover to $6,500 levels.
For the day ahead, a move back through the first major support level at $6,544 would support a run at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 to bring $7,000 levels and the day’s first major resistance level at $7,017 into play, though sentiment across the broader market will need to materially improve following Tuesday’s late and this morning’s early sell-off.
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EUR/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – HOVERING ABOVE 13-MONTH LOW AT 1.1312

Early Wednesday, the EUR/USD is trading flat. We’re looking at the possibility of three developments today. Firstly, we could see a steady opening, followed by a higher trade. This will indicate that buyers are coming in to defend yesterday’s low at 1.1331. Secondly, sellers could return, taking out 1.1331 in the process and continuing the downtrend. Due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, we could see a third development. This would involve taking out yesterday’s low at 1.1331 then closing back above yesterday’s close at 1.1343.
The Euro hit a 13-month low early in the session on Tuesday as investors continued to express concerns over the exposure of European banks to the financial turmoil in Turkey. Worries have lingered about European banks’ loans to Turkey, stoking selling of regional stocks and the single currency.
The EUR/USD settled at 1.1343, down 0.0067 or -0.59%.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1331 will continue the downtrend.
The EUR/USD is in no position to change the main trend to up, but it is in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This chart pattern can fuel the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.
Daily Technical Forecast
Early Wednesday, the EUR/USD is trading flat. We’re looking at the possibility of three developments today.
Firstly, we could see a steady opening, followed by a higher trade. This will indicate that buyers are coming in to defend yesterday’s low at 1.1331. This could generate enough momentum to fuel a short-covering rally into a steep downtrending Gann angle at 1.1428.
The Gann angle at 1.1428 forms a resistance cluster with yesterday’s high at 1.1430. Taking out this area will indicate the buying is getting stronger and make 1.1331 a new minor bottom.
Secondly, sellers could return, taking out 1.1331 in the process and continuing the downtrend. This could lead to a quick test of the July 5, 2017 main bottom at 1.1312. If this bottom fails then look for the selling to extend into the steep downtrending Gann angle at 1.1228. Crossing to the weak side of this  angle will put the EUR/USD in a bearish position.
Due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, we could see a third development. This would involve taking out yesterday’s low at 1.1331 then closing back above yesterday’s close at 1.1343. This closing price reversal bottom will not change the trend, but it will indicate the buying may be greater than the selling at current price levels, at least temporarily. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.
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GOLD PRICE FUTURES (GC) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – MORE VOLATILITY COMING WITH $1166.60 NEXT DOWNSIDE TARGET

Based on the current price at $1184.50, the direction of the December Comex Gold market into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the former bottom at $1184.00. Now that we’ve tested $1184.00, volatility is expected to pick up since there is plenty of room in both directions with $1210.70 a potential upside target and $1166.60 the next downside target.
Gold futures hit an 18-month low early Wednesday as investors continued to dump the dollar-denominated asset as the U.S. Dollar moved towards its highest level in over a year. Fear of global market contagion drove the greenback higher as sellers continued to express concerns over emerging markets.
At 1845 GMT, December Comex Gold is trading $1184.50, down $16.20 or -1.35%.
Daily Technical Analysis
Gold has been in a freefall since Monday after it breached the August 3 bottom at $1212.50. The move, however, came as no surprise since the daily chart indicated plenty of room to the downside with the January 3, 2017 main bottom at $1184.00 the next major downside target.
Due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the only chart pattern that can safe this market from breaking further is a closing price reversal bottom. And that’s not likely to happen unless the market finishes over yesterday’s close at $1200.70.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the current price at $1184.50, the direction of the December Comex Gold market into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the former bottom at $1184.00.
A sustained move over $1184.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. It will also suggest that today’s sell-off was exhaustion.
A sustained move under $1184.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a drive into the steep downtrending Gann angle at $1176.70.
Crossing to the weak side of this angle will confirm the bearish tone and set up the market for a further drive into the December 22, 2016 main bottom at $1166.60. This is followed closely by the December 16, 2016 main bottom at $1162.00.
Now that we’ve tested $1184.00, volatility is expected to pick up since there is plenty of room in both directions with $1210.70 a potential upside target and $1166.60 the next downside target.
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US DOLLAR PRICE ACTION SETUPS: PLAYING PULLBACKS, BULLS CONTINUE TO RUN

In this webinar we used price action to look at FX markets as centered around the US Dollar and major currency pairs. We’d previously looked at the US Dollar testing higher-low support earlier this morning, and a strong bullish response began to show in the Greenback just ahead of our webinar start. In this session, we looked at the prospect of continuation in this bullish theme, drawing setups across various currency pairs to work with. We also took a look at price action in Gold, WTI Oil and the Dow and S&P 500 for US equity bourses.
US DOLLAR FINDS SUPPORT AT PRIOR RESISTANCE AS BULLS PUSH AHEAD

We looked at the US Dollar interacting with a key resistance level on Tuesday, as prices had started to resist when encountering the 96.47 Fibonacci level. This is the 23.6% retracement of the 2011-2017 major move, and this is taken from the same study from which the 50% marker helped to form the three-year low in DXYin mid-February.
US DOLLAR FOUR-HOUR PRICE CHART: SUPPORT AT PRIOR FIBONACCI RESISTANCE
We discussed this theme again this morning in our article entitled, US Dollar Strength Pulls Back, EUR/USD Bounces From Yearly Lows. At the time, DXY was continuing to dig in to 96.47, and we shared a bullish short-term view that remains active as prices remain above 96.15.
On a longer-term basis, the area around 98.00 is the next (and final) target from our Q3 Technical Forecast on the US Dollar, and a bullish move up to this level could be made more attractive by a pullback in DXY to the prior zone of resistance from 95.00-95.53.
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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS – 20/08/18

It’s a mixed start to the day across the majors, with Monday’s having been a testy time for investors of late. Things will likely liven up through the day.
Bitcoin Cash Settles
Bitcoin Cash gained 3.09% on Sunday, partially reversing Saturday’s 8.5% fall, to end the day at $571. Sunday’s moves left Bitcoin Cash flat for the week, Monday through Sunday, with Friday’s 16.8% rally all but a distant memory.
An early morning pullback saw Bitcoin Cash fall to an intraday low $539.7, steering clear of the first major support level at $521.47, before support kicked in through the afternoon, with Bitcoin Cash moving through to an intraday high $583 before easing back, the day’s high falling short of the first major resistance level at $597.57.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 0.5% to $568.1, with Bitcoin Cash pulling back from a start of a day morning high $576.8 to a low $567.3, the moves through the early hours leaving the major support and resistance levels untested.
For the day ahead, a move back through to $570 levels would support a run at $580 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $589.43 into play, though for Bitcoin Cash to break through to $580 levels, a hold on to $560 levels is going to be needed through the morning.
Failure to break back through to $570 levels could see Bitcoin Cash take a hit later in the day, with a slide through to sub-$560 levels bringing the day’s first major support level at $546.13 into play, before any recovery. We would expect Bitcoin Cash to hold above the major support level barring materially negative news hitting the wires.Litecoin Trails the Majors
Litecoin gained 0.8% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 7.25% sell-off, to end the week down 2.66% at $57.85.
A relatively range bound start to the day saw Litecoin ease back to an intraday low $56.4, holding above the first major support level at $54.47. Support from the broader market saw Litecoin move through to an early afternoon intraday high $58.98, before easing back to $57 levels, the day’s high coming up short of the first major resistance level at $61.41.
At the time of writing, Litecoin was up 0.43% to $58.1, with upward momentum from late in the day on Sunday continuing into the early hours.
Litecoin moved from a start of a day morning low $57.82 to a morning high $58.55, before easing back, the moves through the morning leaving the major support and resistance levels untested early on.
For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high would support another run at the day’s first major resistance level at $59.09 to bring $60 levels back into play, though Litecoin will continue to find plenty of resistance at $60 on the day.
Failure to move back through the morning high $58.55 to $59 levels could see Litecoin hit reverse later in the day, with a pullback through the morning low $57.82 bringing $56 levels and the day’s first major support level at $56.51 into play before any recovery.
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Aussie, NZ Dollars at Risk if RBA and RBNZ Miss Rate Hike Boat

AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TALKING POINTS:
Interest rates have been stuck at record lows in Australia and New Zealand for some time
Their central banks both suggest that the next move will be a rise
But will the global economy permit that?
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars both face one huge problem which has weighed them both down very heavily against their big US cousin this year.
But what can we expect when Federal Reserve has raised interest rates quite aggressively while the Reserve Banks of both Australia and New Zealand remain stuck? Rates in both Pacific countries remain at record lows and will remain there for some time yet. The Aussie and Kiwi Dollars once offered fat interest-rate premiums over the greenback. Now both yield less at base rate and that gap will surely widen further.
Australian futures markets now don’t see any increase at all until well beyond January 2020. Their New Zealand counterparts predict one in September 2019 at the very earliest.
GLOBAL RECOVERY IS ALREADY QUITE ADVANCED
But such forecasts can’t exist in a vacuum. Remember that the world has already seen an impressive run of post-crisis economic growth. The US economy has logged 17 straight quarters of economic expansion, and 26 with only a single quarter of contraction.
The S&P 500 index now crows atop an all-time record bull run. How much more can it possibly have to give? Is it rational to expect this charge to continue for the additional year and what more would it need to do before we supposedly get to Australian and New Zealand rate-hike time?
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