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226 (edited by xtreamforex.com 2018-09-25 10:09:31)

Re: Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

US Dollar Presses Recent Low But Lacks the Punch

US Dollar tests recent lows just below 94, but cannot punch through with force. The Elliott Wave counts are mixed so be mindful of a rally.
The video above is a recording of a US Opening Bell webinar from September 24, 2018. We focused on the Elliott Wave and patterns for Dollar Index, EURUSD, NZDUSD, Gold, and Silver. The patterns may subdivide into complex corrections though we are anticipating another round of round of dollar weakness over the medium term.
DOLLAR INDEX TESTS 3 WEEK LOW

US Dollar Index keeps probing its recent lows. The jury is still out as to whether this is circle wave ‘c’ lower or a complex circle wave ‘b’ that will shoot higher to finalize. With DXY yet to meaningfully break 93.63, we need to respect the potential for circle wave ‘b’ to continue higher and retest 95.25 and possibly 96. Otherwise, a meaningful break below 93.63 opens the door to 93.26 and possibly 91.72.
The bearish view is valid so long as dollar index holds below 96.98.EURUSD ELLIOTT WAVE CHART POINTS TO MULTI-MONTH RALLY
he EURUSD chart is the opposite of DXY. The upper key level is 1.1862. Until a meaningful break of this level occurs, we are considering the move higher as a ‘b’ wave. This suggests a correction lower in a ‘c’ wave to 1.1550 and possibly 1.1450.
Since August 20, we have been anticipating a multi-month rally in EURUSD as the Elliott Wave from February 2018 concludes. If EURUSD does drop to 1.1550, then we will be looking for bullish symptoms as an ensuring rally may drive it above 1.18 towards 1.20-1.22.
Sentiment has certainly fed a movement higher in EURUSD as traders dropped from being 41% long to 37% long earlier today. This is not a meaningful move either way to offer clarity to the patterns.
NZDUSD KICKS OFF RALLY WITH ELLIOTT WAVE IMPULSE

The Elliott Wave picture for NZD/USD shows a strong potential for a developing impulse wave. Kiwi may be going through a wave 4 correction now. So long as prices hold above .6580, then a bullish bias is warranted to finalize the bullish impulse.
NORWEGIAN KRONE FINDS STRENGTH IN CENTRAL BANK MEETING

USDNOK and EURNOK charts sport bearish patterns as Norwegian Krone has been strengthening for the past couple of weeks. Prior to the Norges Bank meeting last Thursday, we closed out half of both short EURNOK and short USDNOK to remove risk from the market. USDNOK went through a brief rally but has returned towards lower levels. For the moment, we are hanging on to the remainder of both EURNOK and USDNOK short. We are targeting 7.96 and possibly 7.63 for USDNOK.GOLD PRICE CHART HOLDS ABOVE AUGUST LOW
On August 30, we forecasted a shiny future for gold. Gold’s price chart has advanced in an impulsive wave and is now correcting sideways. This sideways correction likely holds above the August 15 low of 1160. We are unsure of the corrective wave that is unfolding, but so long as gold prices remain above 1160, the pattern is bullish.
Read more:[url]https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/category/forex-news/
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227

Re: Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar drifts lower ahead of FOMC

The Australian dollar drifted a little bit lower ahead of the FOMC meeting, as we continue to see a lot of choppiness. This is a marketplace that continues to be erratic, and of course is affected by a lot of different moving pieces.
The Australian dollar pulled back significantly during the day after initially trying to rally overnight ahead of the FOMC. The market looks likely to remain very difficult to navigate, because we do have the problems with the Sino-American relations, as it has a direct influence on the Australian economy. Australia is highly sensitive to what happens with China, but with the uncertainty it’s difficult to put a lot of faith in the Aussie. I also recognize that the US dollar has the benefit of several interest rate hikes ahead of it, so that should help the downside as well. At this point, if we break down below the 0.72 level, the market is likely to go looking towards the 0.7150 level next. That’s an area that has been important and giving that up opens the door to the 0.70 level.
Above, I see massive resistance at the 0.7350 level, an area that has been supportive and has seen a lot of selling pressure. Because of this, I think that the upside is somewhat limited in the Australian dollar, and as because of that it’s likely that the easiest trade is to take exhaustive rallies as an opportunity to short. I believe that ultimately this market will drift lower, but if we get a somewhat dovish statement out of the FOMC somehow, that of course would change everything. With interest rates rising in the United States, it makes sense that the US dollar continues to be rather strong.
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228

Re: Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

The USD in Focus, with Economic Data and Trump in the Spotlight

Trade will continue to be the area of focus as Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Abe meet to discuss trade terms. Any negative comments likely to raise tensions further.
Earlier in the Day:
There were no material stats released through the Asian session this morning, leaving the markets to consider the overnight FED rate hike and FOMC projections, Trump’s press conference and this morning’s RBNZ policy decision.
For the Kiwi Dollar, the RBNZ held rates at 1.75% as had been expected, while talk of improving labour market conditions provided a brief spike, a Kiwi Dollar rally tempered by the RBNZ’s concerns over the possible impact of the ongoing trade war between the U.S and China on the New Zealand economy.
In spite of better than expected growth in the 2nd quarter, the RBNZ noted that downside risks remained, with inflation continuing to fall short of the 2% mid-point of the RBNZ’s target supporting the need for status quo on policy. The RBNZ stated that accommodative policy would be maintained, with the next move unclear as the outlook for the global economy becomes clouded.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66562 to $0.66733 on the decision and release of the rate statement and monetary policy statement that preceded the RBNZ Governor press conference.
Through the RBNZ press conference, RBNZ Governor Orr reiterated key points from the policy statement, citing consumer price inflation sitting at below the 2% mid-point and caution over the outlook for domestic growth, the governor noting international trade policy tensions that could impact global growth.
On the bright side, reference to sliding business confidence was removed following September business confidence figures released on Wednesday, with the RBNZ Governor also seeing domestic consumption and government spending supportive of the economy near-term.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66622 to $0.66619 through the RBNZ press conference, before easing to $0.6656 at the time of writing, down 0.11% for the session.
Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen was up 0.03% at ¥112.70 against the U.S Dollar, geo-political risk supporting the Yen following the latest FED rate hike, as the markets look towards the Trump – Abe meeting on trade. For the Aussie Dollar, it was another positive start to the day, the Aussie Dollar up 0.03% at $0.7260 at the time of writing, recovering from losses earlier in the session.
In the equity markets, there was plenty of red, with the Nikkei down 0.33%, an uptick in the Yen and concerns over the Trump – Abe sit down weighing. Trade war jitters also pressured the CSI300 and Hang Seng, the pair down 0.39% and 0.44% respectively at the time of writing, while the ASX200 was down just 0.12%The Day Ahead:
For the EUR, economic data scheduled for release through the day includes October’s German consumer climate figures and prelim inflation numbers for September, with the ECB’s economic bulletin also due out.
Following Draghi’s comments earlier in the week of an anticipated jump in inflationary pressures, the markets will be looking for any pickup in inflation in this afternoon’s numbers and also for any concerns the ECB may have over the economic outlook as trade tensions continue to weigh.
A 3rd speech of the week for Draghi later in the day could provide further upside for the EUR should Draghi talk up inflationary pressures for a second time, though even the ECB will be conscious of the possible effects of the ongoing U.S – China trade war on the Eurozone economy, BMW having already warned of a possible impact on earnings.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.11% to $1.1752, today’s stats, the Italian Budget and noise from the Oval Office to influence.
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U.S. Dollar Boosted by Fed, Solid Economic Data, Weaker Euro

The U.S. Federal Reserve increased the target for the bank’s benchmark by 0.25%, to a range of 2%-2.25%. FOMC members led by Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy is strong enough that aggressive stimulus is no longer necessary. This confidence was shown by the Fed ending its description of its policy as “accommodative”. The divergence between the monetary policies of the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish Bank of Japan helped drive the Dollar/Yen to its highest level since December 21. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its official cash rate at a record low of 1.75 percent.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher last week, helped by expectations of rising interest rates, political turmoil in the Euro Zone and better-than-expected U.S. economic data.
U.S. Federal Reserve Raised Rates Again

On September 26, the U.S. Federal Reserve increased the target for the bank’s benchmark by 0.25%, to a range of 2%-2.25%. A majority of Federal Open Market Committee members also said they expect another rise before the end of the year. This was also the bank’s eighth rate hike since 2015, continuing its policy of gradual rate hikes.
FOMC members led by Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy is strong enough that aggressive stimulus is no longer necessary. This confidence was shown by the Fed ending its description of its policy as “accommodative”.
Powell also said the rate hike reflected the Fed’s confidence in the U.S. economy, describing it as a “particularly bright moment”. Powell also warned that a permanent shift to a “more protectionist world” would hurt the U.S. and global economies, but added that for now, he expects the overall economic impact to remain relatively modest. “We don’t see it in the numbers,” he said at a press conference in Washington after the meeting.
Fed Predictions

Fed officials now expect the U.S. economy to grow by 3.1% this year, faster than the 2.8% forecast in March, according to the projections released after the meeting. Their predictions for inflation remained unchanged at around 2%.
The FOMC forecasts showed Fed officials expect about three rate hikes in 2019 and one more in 2020, which would lift the central bank’s important Fed funds rate to about 3.4% that year.
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TALKING POINTS – EURO, SWISS FRANC, EUROPEAN UNION, ITALY, BUDGET

Euro declining as budget talks between Italy and EU Commission approach
Spread between German and Italian 2-year bond yields notably increasing
Friction between Italy and EU laws likely to increase political risk in region
Italy’s economic nationalism has caused significant volatility in the Euro and regional bond markets. Italy’s recently released 2019 budget deficit target of 2.4% sent the single currency down, while the spread between German and Italian bond yields widened.
Italy is set to present its proposal to the EU Commission on October 20th. The regional bloc’s executive, is likely to reject their proposal however due to the regulations surrounding member states’ debt-to-GDP ratios and deficit limitations, all of which Italy is currently violating.
Because of Italy’s massive debt, they are required to follow a specific set of regulations known as the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP). This requires that they commit to a target that will bring deficits and debts back to statutory levels. If they cannot propose a fiscal plan within regulatory parameters, they face the possibility of economic sanctions.
Friction between Italy’s anti-establishment government and EU technocrats is likely to continue weighing down on the Euro. The increased political risk may cause a rise in demand for regional alternatives such as the Swiss Franc and British Pound. If broader risk aversion follows, the Yen may also rise.
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231

Re: Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Trade Sideways as the Dollar Rallies

Gold prices moved lower and continued to trade sideways in a tight range. This comes at the dollar broke out against the yen and moved higher against the euro.  The dollar gained traction despite a slightly softer than expected ISM manufacturing report.  Softer than expected EU PMI data and weak German retail sales weighed on the Euro. A weaker than expected Tankan survey was the catalyst that weighed on the yen.
Technical Analysis

Gold prices continued to consolidate and has been trading sideways for approximately 4-weeks.  Support on the yellow metal is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,181. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,196.  Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.
Data was Solid
Manufacturing data was solid, as the ISM manufacturing reported for September shows a contraction that was in line with expectations. The The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its national factory activity index declined by 1.5 points to a reading of 59.8 in September 61.3 in August. The August reading was the highest in 14-years.  The index for new order fell to 61.8 from 65.1 in the prior month but still remains well above the 50, expansion contraction level.  Employment rose to 58.8 which was the highest reading since February.
Construction spending Edge Higher

The US Commerce Department reported that construction spending edged up 0.1%in August. Data for July was revised up to show construction rose 0.2% instead of the previously reported 0.1% gain. Expectations were that construction spending would increase 0.4% in August. Construction spending rose 6.5% on a year-on-year basis. Spending on public construction projects jumped 2.0% in August to the highest level since July 2009.
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Rising Geo-Political Risk Drives Support for the Yen and Dollar

Risk aversion hits the Aussie and Kiwi Dollar early, supporting the Greenback and the Yen, as Italy, Trade and Brexit haunt the markets.
Earlier in the Day:
Economic data released through the Asian session this morning was on the lighter side, with stats limited to August building approval figures out of Australia.
For the Aussie Dollar, building approvals tumbled by 9.4% in August, according to the ABS, which was far worse than a forecasted 1.2% rise and continued the downward trend following July’s 5.2% slide.
The tumble was attributed to a 17.2% decrease in approvals for private dwellings excluding houses, while approvals for private houses were also in decline, down by 1.9%.
The value of total building approved fell by 1.3%, marking a 9th consecutive monthly fall.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71745 to $0.71696 upon release of the figures, before rising to $0.71709 at the time of writing, down 0.24% for the session.
Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen, was up by 0.09% to ¥113.55 against the U.S Dollar at the time of writing, supported by market jitters over Italy and, not only its fiscal policy plans, but also some chatter of being better off with its own currency. For the Kiwi Dollar, things were not much better, the risk off sentiment weighing, the Kiwi down 0.27% to $0.6575 at the time of writing.
In the equity markets, the Nikkei hit reverse, down by 0.56% at the time of writing, with risk aversion weighing in the early part of the day, while the ASX200 managed to stop the rot, up 0.32%, with support coming from the big-4 that had been under the hammer of late. For the Hang Seng, the slide continued early, the Hang Seng down 0.34%, the ongoing trade war with the U.S and weakening economic data out of China doing the damage alongside risk aversion stemming from geo-political risk rising out of the EU.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR, economic data scheduled for release out of the Eurozone is on the heavier side and includes September service sector PMI numbers out of Italy and Spain and finalized PMI numbers out of France, Germany and the Eurozone, with the Eurozone’s August retail sales figures also due out.
While we can expect the EUR to show some response to the stats, the ongoing concerns over Italy ahead of the coalition government’s budget submission to Brussels mid-month continues to be a concern and may well overshadow the numbers should there be more chatter from members of the coalition.
One other factor to consider and monitor will be chatter from the Oval Office, the EU now in the U.S administration’s sights on trade, the last trade meeting with the EU now some time ago.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.06% to $1.1541, the Italian Budget and noise from the Oval Office remaining the key risks to the EUR, with today’s stats to provide some direction at the time of release.
For the Pound, it’s the last of the 3 September PMI numbers, with September’s service sector PMI scheduled for release. While the manufacturing and construction PMIs delivered mixed results, it’s down to the more significant component of the UK economy to provide the markets with some guidance on where the UK economy is heading going into the 4th quarter. Forecasts are for a slightly softer number, anything weaker than forecasts likely to rile the Pound.
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233 (edited by xtreamforex.com 2018-10-03 09:51:00)

Re: Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Underpinned by Increased Demand for Risk

AUD/USD and NZD/USD price action early in the session suggests traders may have found support. The lack of follow-through to the downside may be indicating that bearish traders are becoming reluctant to sell weakness at current price levels and after a steep decline. The AUD/USD is trying to establish support inside a retracement zone at .7200 to .7172. The key area for the NZD/USD is .6600 to .6576.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are trading slightly lower early Wednesday, but threatening to turn higher for the session. Technical factors may be contributing to the early strength as well as safe haven buying. The longer-term fundamentals are still bearish, however, due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the currencies may be ripe for a short-covering rally.
At 0240 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7185, down 0.0001 or -0.01% and the NZD/USD is at .6588, down 0.0005 or -0.07%.
Increased demand for higher-yielding assets may also be contributing to the gains. The Euro is trading higher after several days of weakness tied to escalating financial issues between Italy and Euro Zone officials. This may be fueling today’s short-covering rally. U.S. equity markets are also firming in pre-market trading.
In economic news, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sees the U.S. economy generating highly optimistic expectations, with the unusual combination of low unemployment and inflation fueling hopes for an extended expansion.
Early Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. Although it expressed concerns over the weakening housing market, it still showed confidence in economic and job growth.
New Zealand business confidence came in much lower than expected, raising concerns that the next major move by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would be a rate cut.
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Gold Price Prediction – Gold Consolidates Following Robust US Data

Gold prices failed to move higher and continue to trade in a tight range. The dollar continued to gain traction against most major currencies following better than expected jobs and services data released in the US on Wednesday. Yields surged placing an underlying bid under the dollar, which weighed on gold prices.
Technical Analysis

Gold prices attempted to move higher but ran into resistance near a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,208. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,196 and then an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,181. Momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover buy signal. This occur as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).
The Dollar is Buoyed By Strong US Data
The dollar gained traction which capped the upside for the yellow metal.  ADP reported that private companies added 230k more jobs in September which was the higher gains since February. Expectations were for the US to add 185K jobs this past month. There were strong gains in construction which grew by 34K as goods-producing industries overall contributed 46K to the final count. Job gains were spread across industries, as services led with 184,000. Manufacturing added just 7,000, its weakest reading in a year. Most of the job gains were in small to mid-size companies which added 99K jobs. Large businesses added 75,000. The August private payrolls count was revised up by 5,000.
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Re: Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

Rising Geo-Political Risk Drives Support for the Yen and Dollar

Risk aversion hits the Aussie and Kiwi Dollar early, supporting the Greenback and the Yen, as Italy, Trade and Brexit haunt the markets.
Earlier in the Day:
Economic data released through the Asian session this morning was on the lighter side, with stats limited to August building approval figures out of Australia.
For the Aussie Dollar, building approvals tumbled by 9.4% in August, according to the ABS, which was far worse than a forecasted 1.2% rise and continued the downward trend following July’s 5.2% slide.
The tumble was attributed to a 17.2% decrease in approvals for private dwellings excluding houses, while approvals for private houses were also in decline, down by 1.9%.
The value of total building approved fell by 1.3%, marking a 9th consecutive monthly fall.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71745 to $0.71696 upon release of the figures, before rising to $0.71709 at the time of writing, down 0.24% for the session.
Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen, was up by 0.09% to ¥113.55 against the U.S Dollar at the time of writing, supported by market jitters over Italy and, not only its fiscal policy plans, but also some chatter of being better off with its own currency. For the Kiwi Dollar, things were not much better, the risk off sentiment weighing, the Kiwi down 0.27% to $0.6575 at the time of writing.
In the equity markets, the Nikkei hit reverse, down by 0.56% at the time of writing, with risk aversion weighing in the early part of the day, while the ASX200 managed to stop the rot, up 0.32%, with support coming from the big-4 that had been under the hammer of late. For the Hang Seng, the slide continued early, the Hang Seng down 0.34%, the ongoing trade war with the U.S and weakening economic data out of China doing the damage alongside risk aversion stemming from geo-political risk rising out of the EU.
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Re: Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Grind Sideways Ahead of NFP Report

Gold prices continue to trade sideways, and appear to be support ahead of Friday’s payroll report. A stronger than expected payroll gain or accelerating wage inflation, will likely lift the dollar and pave the way for lower gold prices. Data released earlier in the week saw the private payrolls increase by a stronger than expected 230K jobs, which has priced in the highest 2-year yield seen in the US since 2008. The 10-year yield spiked on Thursday hitting a high of 3.19%, which is also helping the yield differential move in favor of the dollar. Traders took profits in their dollar positions as rates rise ahead of the payroll report.  Jobless claims were lower than expected dropping to 40+ year lows and signaling that the unemployment rate will likely dip lower.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices consolidated on Thursday ahead of Friday’s payroll report. Prices are capped by a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,209. Short term support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,195. Additional Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line at 1,183. Momentum is positive to neutral, as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a flat trajectory which reflects consolidation. The MACD recently generated a crossover buy signal.
Jobless Claims Continue to Drop
The Labor Department reported that claims declined by 8K to 207K for the week ended Sept. 29, 2018. Claims fell to 202,000 during the week ended Sept. 15, which was the lowest level since November 1969. Expectations where for claims to dip to 213K. The Labor Department said claims for South and North Carolina were affected by Hurricane Florence, which lashed the region in mid-September. The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 500 to 207,000 last week.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Focus Will Remain on U.S. Treasury Yields, Inflation Data

There are no major reports from Australia and New Zealand this week. In the U.S., investors will get the opportunity to react to Producer and Consumer Inflation data. The PPI is expected to show an increase of 0.2%, up from -0.1%. The CPI is forecast to show an increase of 0.2%, up from 0.1%.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars tumbled last week to multi-year lows, driven by a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields and hawkish talk from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
The rise in interest rates led to a widening of the interest rate differential between U.S. Government bond yields and Australian and New Zealand Government yields. This helped make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment.
For the week, the AUD/USD settled at .7049, down 0.0168 or -2.33% and the NZD/USD closed at .6437, down 0.0182 or -2.75%.
Essentially, it’s the divergence in monetary policy between the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand that is driving the price action.
Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a historically low 1.50%. It also suggested that while the economy is expected to improve, there are still issues with housing and lower wages that are preventing the RBA from raising interest rates. Traders don’t expect the central bank to begin raising rates until early 2020.
Two weeks ago, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged. Traders are saying that the next move by the RBNZ could actually be an interest rate cut.
In other news, Australian Building Approvals fell 9.4%. However, the Trade Balance came in better-than-expected at 1.60 billion and Retail Sales rose 0.3%.
In the U.S., the headline grabbing nonfarm payrolls increased by 134,000 jobs in September, the fewest in a year. However, data for July and August was revised to show 87,000 more jobs added than previously reported. Average hourly earnings rose 8 cents, or 0.3 percent, in September after rising 0.3 percent in August. The unemployment rate fell from 3.9 percent to 3.7 percent.
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IMF Downgrades Global Growth Call Citing ’Unsettled’ Trade Picture

IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK TALKING POINTS:
The IMF cut its global growth forecast
Calls for the EU, US and China were all downgraded
But Emerging Markets took the biggest hits
The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast on Tuesday, citing escalating trade conflicts and tighter financial conditions. A gloomier reassessment of Emerging Markets’ chances were behind the lion’s share of its action.
The Fund’s World Economic Outlook update pegged global growth at 3.7% for 2018 and 2019, down from 3.9% previously thanks to trade-war worries and rising economic tensions in the EM space. Growth is still relatively strong, the IMF said, but has plateaued at 3.7%. ‘as risks have start to materialize.’
The balance of those risks has shifted to the downside, it went on.
The Fund now thinks growth across EM economies will remain flat at 4.7% this year and next, whereas its previous forecast looked for gains of 4.9% this year and 5.1% in 2019.Developed economies fare better, but not much. The IMF left this year’s forecast alone at 2.4%, and downgraded its 2019 call by just 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%.
“Growth was revised down for Argentina, Brazil, Iran and Turkey, among other, reflecting county-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions and higher oil import bills,” the report said.
Forecasts for China, the US and Eurozone were all revised modestly lower and the IMF said that its modelling suggested that the imposition of all currently threatened US tariffs would cut global GDP growth by 0.8% in 2020.
Asia Pacific foreign exchange markets appeared to take this downbeat report very much in stride, with little movement seen after its release. The US Dollar had been meandering lower against the Japanese Yenthrough the Asian morning and this process continued after the IMF report crossed the wires.
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Bitcoin – Bulls Eye $6,700 Levels on Hopes of the SEC Delivering

With Bitcoin holding on to $6,600 levels, the bulls will be eyeing $6,700 levels for the day to maintain momentum.
Bitcoin gained 0.99% on Monday, following Sunday’s 0.33% gain, to end the day at $6,674.8.
A typically range bound start to the day saw Bitcoin ease back to a mid-morning intraday low $6,585.9, Bitcoin managing to steer clear of the first major support level at $6,547.87, while continuing to struggle to hold on to $6,600 levels.
Tracking the broader market through the late morning, Bitcoin rallied through the late morning to a mid-day intraday high $6,730, the late morning move seeing Bitcoin break through the first major resistance level at $6,663.27 and second major resistance level at $6,709.53, while falling short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757.
A customary pullback in the final hours of the day saw a late rally through the second major resistance level be cut short, with Bitcoin easing back to $6,600 levels, while managing to avoid a slide back through the first major resistance level to $6,500 levels.
While there was no particularly negative news hitting the crypto wires through the day, there was some bullish chatter to provide support, with hope of an SEC approval of Bitcoin ETF applications driving appetite through the day, any approvals by the SEC likely to deliver Bitcoin and the broader market with some sizeable gains off the back of institutional money flooding into the cryptomarket.
The gains made across the broader market led to the crypto market cap moving back through to $221.5bn, while Bitcoin’s dominance eased back to 52%, the hold on to 52% levels still reflective of a bearish market.
Bitcoin’s struggles at breaking out from $6,600 have continued to see selling pressure at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 left untested, a breakout to $8,000 levels in late July all too brief to have supported a bearish trend reversal.
Monday’s gains will provide the Bitcoin bulls with some hope of a break free from the recent ranges, though for Bitcoin to enjoy upward momentum free from profit taking late in the day, some favourable regulatory news will need to be forthcoming.
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Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Offers Dip-Buy Prospects

JAPANESE YEN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TALKING POINTS:
USD/JPY has slipped from its 2018 highs
However, key support has held so far
EUR/JPY shows a similar daily chart profile but may be more vulnerable
The Japanese Yen has staged a modest fightback against the US Dollar in the past week, but it may not get a lot further.
There doesn’t seem to be much obvious fundamental justification for the quite-sharp fall in USD/JPY seen since the pair made its highest point since November, 2017 back on October 3. There has perhaps been a rise in risk-aversion over the period in question, with trade frictions still all-too evident and the International Monetary Fund downgrading its global growth call. This is the sort of backdrop which usually favors perceived haven currencies and, while the Yen is certainly one of those, the US Dollar’s hugely greater yield has ensured that it, rather than the Japanese unit, which gets investors’ nods.
Technically, however, the Yen appears to have something of an advantage now. USD/JPY has slipped quite dramatically below the strong, newish uptrend channel that had previously bounded trade since September 7.
Tellingly the US Dollar has so far managed to hold above the key 113.000 level on a daily closing basis, and its ability to continue to do so may be important.That level also represents, near enough, the second 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s rise up from those early September lows. If it gives way then 50% retracement at 112.50 or so will come into sharp focus.
However, I suspect that the fundamentals will reassert themselves soon enough in USD/JPY and, as they unarguably favor the Dollar, falls from current levels will probably represent a good chance to buy.For all its recent falls the pair remains very firmly within the longer-term uptrend channel which has contained trade since the lows of March.
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241 (edited by xtreamforex.com 2018-10-11 09:55:31)

Re: Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

AUD/USD Extends Bullish Series Ahead RBA Financial Stability Review

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS
AUD/USD is little changed despite the below-forecast print for the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), but recent price action raises the risk for larger rebound in the exchange rate as aussie-dollar extends the bullish sequence from earlier this week.
AUD/USD EXTENDS BULLISH SERIES AHEAD RBA FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
Fresh developments coming out of the U.S. economy may do little to alter the near-term outlook for AUD/USD as updates to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are anticipated to show the headline reading for inflation slipping to 2.4% from 2.7% per annum in August, and another batch of lackluster data prints may fuel a larger rebound in aussie-dollar as it limits the Federal Reserve’s scope to extend the hiking-cycle.
Keep in mind, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on a preset course in 2018 as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. are widely anticipated to deliver another 25bp rate-hike at the next quarterly meeting in December, and Fed officials may continue to prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the central bank achieves its dual mandate for monetary policy.
However, the narrowing threat for above-target price growth may force the FOMC to soften its hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy as ‘both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent,’ and Fed officials may continue to project a longer-run neutral rate of 2.75% to 3.00% especially as the shift in U.S. trade policy clouds the economic outlook.
With that said, the recent rebound in AUD/USD may gather pace over the coming days, but the broader outlook remains mired by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as the central bank remains reluctant to lift the official cash rate (OCR) off of the record-low.
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Bears Drag S&P 500 Below 200-Day Average, Risk Aversion Dangerously Broad

Talking Points:
Despite disparate performances Thursday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trade below their 200-day moving averages
The intensity of risk aversion across assets despends on their starting point, but there is no mistaking the risk aversion
While capital markets are sliding, the safe haven Dollar has dropped, Euro is ignoring Italian pressures and Pound eyes Brexit
RISK AVERSION PERSISTS AND THE THREAT OF TREND GROWS
We have closed out a second day of unmistakable risk aversion for the broader financial markets. In the progression of reversing course from a decade-long bull trend, we have checked off yet another box. With fundamental measures of value long ago deteriorating underneath high-flying asset prices, the real speculative traction began some months ago when we started to register a divergence in the performance of the seemingly unflappable US equity indices and many other speculative assets (global equities, emerging market assets, junk bonds, carry trade, etc.) that were starting to take on water. When the S&P 500 and its peers started to sink these past few week, it would raise concern over a contagion that set the stage for concerted selling. That is what we are currently registering. While the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 losses this past session were not as intense as Wednesday’ 3-4 percent tumble, they were nevertheless an unwelcome consistency of pain. The S&P 500 has slid below its 200-day moving average for the first time in months (only the second time since June 2016) and now all three stand at the cusp of overturning the leg of the long bull run that found traction after the US election. It is worth noting the disparity in performance between the likes of the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq. The latter is a more concentrated representative of the top performing tech sector, yet was holding up relatively well – though it is already on pace for its worst month since the height of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. In the contrast between US indices and other risk assets, it is tempting to find comfort in the more reserved losses. However, the months of losses preceding this bout of intensity means they have less premium to shed quickly. It should not be relied upon as a signal that risk trends are going to imminently stick a landing.
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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 15/10/18

It’s a slow start to the week for the majors, following last week’s heavy losses, with investors looking for updates from regulators.
Bitcoin Cash Looking for Support
Bitcoin Cash fell by 2.67% on Sunday, reversing Saturday’s 0.71% gain, to end the week down 15.6% at $441.7.
A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin Cash rise to a mid-morning intraday high $458 before hitting reverse, the day’s high coming up against the first major resistance level at $458.13. After recovering through the afternoon from a late morning fall to $440 levels, a late in the day sell-off saw Bitcoin Cash slide through the first major support level at $445.93 to an intraday low $440.2 before finding support at the end of the day.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 0.59% to $446, with Bitcoin Cash calling on support at the first major support level at $435.27 with a start of a day slide to a morning low $435.5 to move through to a morning high $447.4 before steadying, the day’s high falling short of the first major resistance level at $453.07.
For the day ahead, a hold on to $446 levels through the morning would support another run at $450 levels to bring the day’s first major resistance level at $453.07 into play, while Bitcoin Cash will likely continue to fall short of $460 levels as investors look on for news from the FSB and G20 on rules and regulations for the cryptomarket, the IMF impact analysis of the market on financial stability suggesting the need for a more rigid framework.
Failure to hold on to $446 through the morning could see Bitcoin Cash pullback to sub-$440 levels to bring the day’s first major support level at $435.27 back into play, with any broad based market sell-off likely to see Bitcoin Cash test sub-$430 support levels before any recovery.
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EUR/USD :Break over 1.16 stays slippery,disobedient Italy endorses expansionary financial arrangement policy

Italy-German yield differential might rise within the EUR negative manner,courtesy of Italy expansionary economics policy .The EUR/USD might feel pull of gravity because of Italy-German yield.Furthermore,the authority of Italy approved a draft budget low which is deficit and set to widen into 2.4% average on gross product .Moreover,The spread between Italy and German authority bond yield in 10 years which is slightly rising in five years and goes above 300 basis points.In a nutshell according to the Xtreamforex anticipation the EUR/USD is defensive at the point 1.1574 on trading having high clocked on 1.1592 on earlier today.
GBP/USD suffering to keep the path to 1.3200 with the United Kingdom income anticipated to decline
The GBP/USD price going near to the 1.3150 ahead according to the London market session for Tuesday. The Brexit plan going down on Monday and the continue going two sides to disagree on the plethora issues. The headache of Brexit pulling continue to the cable through this week .The European union leadership summit brexit outline especially ahead on Wednesday where a brexit proposed was initially slated.
USD/JPY bothered underneath 112 deals with while bears eye smash of vital help
USD/JPY is currently trading at 111.86, a couple of pips shy of the Asian session excessive and up from a low of 111.73.Meanwhile the investors nevertheless careful over the current inventory market the dollar has lost its safe -haven status over a number of variable which can be reasons to live pessimistic at the greenback’s near-time period in future .In the meantime ,the marketplace tone remains dominant as the marketplace participants don’t forget about the stability of risk in the aftermath closing week’s turbulence which keeps to favor the yen this safe haven status.
Gold sits above 100 days EMA for the primary time considering the fact since May 10
Gold closed above the 100-day EMA the day prior to this ,adding credence to bullish wreck of the  6-months lengthy falling trend line witnessed final week .Moreover the 100-day EMA goes 40 pips down  from the last 10 hours and its dollar index remain going below 95.00 because of that .The trading price of yellow metal is $1,230 at price time and having clocked a three month strong of $1,236.90 yesterday .
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245 (edited by xtreamforex.com 2018-10-17 12:07:38)

Re: Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

USD/JPY Fundamental Xtreamforex daily Forex forecast key price drives today-Risk appetite ,Economic news,Fed minutes

The USD/JPY dictate the direction of Fed minutes,Demand for risk,economic reports on early Wednesday.The latest fed minutes and slew of US economic data  may also be helping to generate position-squaring ahead which is going to release tomorrow and it also generate some short covering activity.The safe-haven Japanese Yen reduced its gain up-to 0.42% on Tuesday.After release of strong quarterly results  from some of the US marketplace recovers sell off from last week.According to to us one indispensable thing that traders don’t expect the rapid rise of US treasury yield in minutes it puts the negative impact on market.
Gold Price Forecast-Gold markets keep on pounding sideways on Tuesday with slight upward tilt
Gold markets keep on crushing sideways with a marginally upward tilt amid the day on Tuesday, as we keep on observing a ton of security exchange purchasing. The Gold markets have offered somewhat of a place of refuge as they have become uncommonly shoddy starting late, yet now we are a bit overextended.One thing that I can say in regards to this market is that we have gone sideways generally after a huge rally, and that is a decent sign as it looks prone to make dealers substantially more agreeable at these more elevated amounts rather than the standard pullback that you would get after a flood higher.
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Xtreamforex daily forex forecasts-S&P 500 pulls back to commence on Wednesday session

The S&P 500 pulled back at first amid on Wednesday session breaking beneath the 2800 level.That is in fact a territory of the intrigue ,yet I think we are now just anticipating the FOMC minutes .The S&P 500 has getting back efficiently pulled back and kickoff the Wednesday session and then we are start recognize the sign of life again which is goes near to the 2780 region.However,be that as it may in the FOMC meeting minutes .We will search for indications of where financing cost will go .Suppose if interest rates likely to continue to going up significantly ,that could be negative for stocks .
Natural gas price forecasts -Natural gas markets keep on pounding
Natural gas market kept on pounding amid the exchanging session on Wednesday ,as we keep on battling with these high levels .The markets has as of late been extremely bullish ,yet the most recent a few days have been more about absorption than whatever else .Natural gas markets keep on going sideways as we are attempting to process the increases that we had as of late observed .The colder temperature in US will keep on driving interest up in principle ,and normally this season we will see great deal of purchasing weight.
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247 (edited by xtreamforex.com 2018-10-19 11:05:07)

Re: Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

Xtreamforex Daily Forex Forecasts -Gold hangs to gains

Gold markets broke out to the upside recently, and over the last couple of days we have simply grounds sideways overall and at this point I think what we are trying to do is reach the $1250 level above. That is massive resistance due to technical and psychological importance though.
Gold markets revitalized, breaking towards the $1225 level as of late, however from that point forward we have gone sideways. This is an extremely bullish sign however, on the grounds that it demonstrates to us that the market is open to clinging to the increases from the move a week ago. On the off chance that that is the situation, at that point it demonstrates genuine versatility and I think in the long run we will attempt to go to the $1250 level.The substitute situation would separate underneath the $1175 level, which would be extremely negative and could loosen up the gold market significantly further.
S&P Price Forecasts-Stock markets pulled back somewhat to commence Thursday
Stock markets  fell a bit in the United States to commence the Thursday session, yet it looks as though they are finding a specific measure of purchasing weight underneath. Along these lines, it’s presumable that we could see somewhat of a rally after this ongoing merciless selloff.The S&P 500 has hinted at getting amid the exchanging session on Thursday, as the bullish flame from Tuesday still is by all accounts a territory where purchasers will come in and lift this market up. On the off chance that that is the situation, at that point I believe that we will keep on observing business sector members proceed to attempt and push towards the past uptrend line at the 2850 handle. On the off chance that we can wipe out the huge negative light from a week ago, that would be phenomenally bullish, and afterward we could keep on going higher. Now, I think the 2700 level underneath is the “floor” in the uptrend, so as long as we can remain above there, I believe it’s probable that we will keep on discovering purchasers on plunges.
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NZD/USD Xtreamforex Technical analysis-Strengthen this week over .661 ,weakness under .6575

The direction of the NZD/USD this week is likely to be determined by the trader reaction of the Fib level at .611 close at upside momentum last week .The New Zealand dollar shut higher a week ago,helped by superior to expected shopper expansion information and a last week recuperation by China’s value markets.The solid expansion information likely debilitated the case for the rate by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.The cash likewise shut higher for a second week subsequent to affirming the earlier weeks end inversion base.
DASH Technical Analysis-Support level is play – 22/10/2018
Its red in the early hours for the DASH , which has evaded the pattern over the more extensive market to approach bolster early. DASH goes down by 0.51% on  Sunday and the following the upward trends and goes 1.56% gain on Saturday , At end of the week it will goes goes down 1.36% to $152.61. Moreover,An early morning intraday DASH fall short of the day first major resistance level at $155.54 on early morning intraday high $155.54 saw by the chart.
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Xtreamforex USD/JPY Price forecasts- US dollar separates against Japanese yen in hazard off move

The US dollars are starting to see more risk averse trading and broke down during trading session on Tuesday.The market looks extremely unsafe at this level ,yet this combine has a lot of help underneath , so underneath so its probably that we will keep on discovering purchaser in the long run.The US dollars breaking towards the 112 levels it does goes down significantly during the Tuesday session. Its obvious by our expectations that we are starting to wind up exceptionally touch in global markets generally speaking ,the USD/JPY combine will be a channel with regards to the outflow of this.
Gold Price Forecasts – Gold markets rally against amid Tuesday sessions
The God markets show extreme agitation in general and continues to attract safe haven flows as the markets. Gold market looks prepared to reach towards the $1250 level , however we have given back a touch of the auditions late in the day.Gold markets have unmistakably broken over the multi day moving normal, and now look liable to keep on going higher dependent on the bullish activity that we have seen. As of right now, I trust that the market will presumably reach towards the $1250 level, a zone that has pulled in the two purchasers and venders previously. As of now, on the every day diagram it looks as though we are endeavoring to skip around between $25 levels, and I think with the multi day EMA swinging to the upside, clearly Gold is prepared to make a genuine endeavor at a breakout. In any case, I would search for here and now pullbacks with the end goal to get somewhat of an esteem play and obviously show signs of improvement passage point.
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EUR/USD has dissolved here and now falling trend line in front of US NFP and wage development discharge

The EUR/USD cleared a key falling trend line jump yesterday, opening entryways for a more grounded restorative rally. Non farm payrolls presumably bounced back by 190,000 employments in October and normal hourly procuring likely expanded by 0.2 percent on the month. The EUR/USD match moved over 1.14 yesterday not surprisingly, affirming an upside break of the trend line associating the Oct. 16 high and Oct. 22 high. The upside break of the corner to corner opposition has opened the ways to a more grounded recuperation rally toward the following obstruction of 1.1463 (Oct. 4 low).The US dollar, be that as it may, will probably get a solid offer if the US information features a get in wage-value expansion, adding confidence to the Fed’s view that financing cost arrangement would need to turn prohibitive for quite a while.
Xtreamforex – EUR/USD levels to watch

Support levels:  (1.1335) (1.1259) (1.1215)
Resistance levels: (1.1455) (1.1499) (1.1575)
GBP/USD hoping to cling to 1.3000 with US NFP in the barrel
The GBP/USD is exchanging firmly close to the 1.3000 noteworthy handle after Thursday’s rally on revived Brexit trusts, and the Cable heads into Friday’s activity in front of another guard US NFP appearing.The Sterling saw some truly necessary lift yesterday after features broke that some advancement may at long last be being made on EU-UK Brexit arrangements; yesterday observed EU pioneers in Brussels calm monetary markets with the declaration that European merchants will keep up access to basic UK subsidiaries settling components in case of a muddled Brexit, yet the features were adequate for Pound bulls to start a concise rally. Weight on the US Dollar in the more extensive forex markets cape sent the Greenback bring down no matter how you look at it, and the GBP/USD is appreciating a relief from typical offering.
Xtreamforex – GBP/USD levels to watch
Support levels: (1.2825) (1.2651) (1.2551)
Resistance levels: (1.3099) (1.3199) (1.3373)
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