The Walt Disney Co.: wave analysis 28.02.2022 

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on The Walt Disney Co. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the wave 1 of (5) formed. Now, a downward correction has developed as the second wave 2 of (5), and the formation of the wave 3 of (5) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 3 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 168.30–179.60. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 140.30.

Main scenario

Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 140.30 with the targets at 168.30–179.60. Implementation period: 7 days and more.

Alternative scenario

The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 140.30 will let the price go down to the levels of 126.20–107.93.

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USD/CAD: US dollar wins back losses 04.03.2022 

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/CAD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

During the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is growing uncertainly, developing the “bullish” momentum formed yesterday, when the instrument was trading near local lows since January 26.

Investors are in no hurry to open long positions on the US currency, preferring to wait for today's publication of the final report on the labor market for February, hoping to receive additional confirmation of the possibility of raising interest rates during the March meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Given the aggravation of the situation around Ukraine, it is likely that the regulator may change its original plans. Some concern is caused by the US statistics on business activity published in recent days, which reflects the rapid decline in sentiment, especially in the service sector.

The Canadian currency is supported by the actions of the Bank of Canada. On Wednesday, the regulator expectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%. Yesterday, the head of department, Tiff Macklem, stressed that the Board of Governors of the bank expects further tightening of monetary policy as the national economy grows, while the previous target levels remain unchanged.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse a horizontal plane: the price range slightly expands from below, trying to keep with the surge in trading activity in the middle of the week. MACD indicator tries to reverse upwards, keeping its previous sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, retreating slightly from its lows, signaling that the US dollar is oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2750, 1.2786, 1.2812.
Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2558, 1.2500.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of 1.2700 with the target at 1.2812. Stop loss – 1.2650. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after the rebound from 1.2700 and the breakdown of 1.2650 with the target at 1.2558. Stop loss – 1.2700.

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Hewlett-Packard Co.: technical analysis 09.03.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Hewlett-Packard Co. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The stocks of Hewlett-Packard Co., the US IT giant, are correcting around 35.62.

An uptrend is developing on the global chart of the asset, at the top of which a local downtrend is formed. Now the rate is trying to break the initial correction of 23.6% Fibonacci around 34.00, which coincides with the support line of the global uptrend. The consolidation below it allows three scenarios of the trend development. The first and most likely scenario reaches the 38.2% Fibonacci base retracement level at 30.80. The next variant of the price movement assumes reaching an intermediate correction of 50.0% by Fibonacci around 28.20. The final scenario is a fully formed correction with a full retracement of 61.8% at 25.50.

Trading tips

After breaking the support line at 34.00, sell positions with the target at the maximum level of 25.50 are relevant. Stop loss — 37.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

After growth and consolidation above the local maximum of 36.80, buy positions with the targets at the highs of the year at 40.00 and stop loss 34.00 are relevant.

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EUR/USD: the euro is testing 1.0900 14.03.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The European currency shows mixed dynamics of trading against the US dollar during the Asian session, consolidating near 1.0900 in anticipation of new movement drivers.

EUR/USD ended last week's trading with an active two-day decline, which almost completely leveled the instrument's attempt to grow on Tuesday and Wednesday. Significant support for the euro was provided by the rhetoric of the European Central Bank (ECB), which announced the curtailment of the quantitative easing (QE) program sooner than expected. Asset purchases will be slowed down from 40 billion euros in April to 30 billion euros in May and to 20 billion euros in June, although earlier it was planned to gradually reduce from 40 billion euros to 20 billion euros by October. The "hawkish" rhetoric of European officials means that before the end of the year, the regulator will be able to get additional space to start a full-fledged tightening of monetary policy through an increase in interest rates, which will remain at current values until inflation reaches the target value of 2%.

In turn, pressure on the euro continues as the conflict escalates in Ukraine, where Russian troops continue to conduct a special military operation. Western countries are introducing more and more new sanctions against businesses and individuals. US authorities have already banned the import of oil, gas and other energy products from Russia, and Europe, in turn, being more dependent on Russian exports, is likely to act gradually. The European Commission has already presented a project for an accelerated phase-out of Russian energy carriers, under which the EU's need for gas from Russia will be reduced by two-thirds by the end of 2022. At the moment, the EU imports 90% of "blue fuel", about 45% of which is supplied by the Russian Federation.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate active decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic shows more confident negative dynamics, but at the moment it is rapidly approaching its low, indicating the risks of EUR being oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0957, 1.1000, 1.1054, 1.1100.
Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0860, 1.0800, 1.0767.

Trading tips

To open new short positions, one can rely on the breakdown of 1.0900 with the target at 1.0800. Stop-loss – 1.0957. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 1.0900 as from support followed by a breakout of 1.0957 may become a signal for new purchases with the target at 1.1100. Stop-loss – 1.0900.

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GBP/USD: Bank of England raises interest rate to 0.75% 18.03.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading ambiguously, consolidating near 1.3150. The pound is expecting new drivers, but at the end of the week, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively empty, so the news from Eastern Europe will remain the main driving force on the market.

Yesterday, the instrument renewed the daily low, dropping to the 1.3100 area after the Bank of England meeting minutes were published. The British regulator expectedly raised the interest rate for the third time since December this year, bringing it to 0.75%. The decision was not unanimous as to the deputy head of the regulator, Jon Cunliffe, advocated maintaining the current levels of the rate, noting a strong imbalance in supply and demand against the backdrop of a sharp increase in commodities after the start of a special military operation of Russian troops in Ukraine. The Bank of England expects domestic and global inflation to continue to rise and accelerate significantly over the next few months, while growth in energy-importing economies, including the United Kingdom, is likely to slow down. If a peace treaty between Russian and Ukrainian representatives is not signed in the coming weeks, sanctions against the Russian economy can be expected to negatively impact the process of restoring supply chains that were disrupted during the COVID-19 epidemic.

The Bank of England downgraded its inflation forecasts, noting that consumer price growth could reach 8% for April, which is one percent higher than previous estimates. Thus, the decision of the British financial authorities to change the interest rate parameter returns the cost of borrowing in the UK to the levels observed before the coronavirus pandemic.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the emergence of multidirectional trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics. However, it is quickly approaching its highs, which signals that GBP may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3200, 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3350.
Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2960.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of 1.3200 with the target at 1.3300. Stop loss – 1.3150. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions may be opened after the breakdown of 1.3100 with the target at 1.3000. Stop loss – 1.3150.

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GBP/USD: the pound is updating local highs 23.03.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The British pound is trading with the uptrend against the US currency during the morning session, updating local highs from March 4.

Eurozone countries found themselves in a vulnerable position due to the developing crisis around Ukraine. The European authorities are preparing a new package of sanctions against the Russian economy, which may include significant restrictions or even a complete embargo on energy imports. This will lead to explosive inflation in commodity markets and call into question the ability to ensure energy security. Undoubtedly, high oil and gas prices will have an extremely negative impact on the UK economy, but London today is much less dependent on imports from the Russian Federation, and therefore joined the embargo initiated by the United States earlier.

The pound is also supported by a rather active position of the Bank of England. Last week, the British regulator raised the rate by 25 basis points for the third time in a row to 0.75%. In turn, the US Federal Reserve, which launched a rate hike cycle last week, is gradually tightening its rhetoric, while the stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) remains neutral for now. In addition, the UK recorded an increase in key financial indicators ahead of the publication of data on the Consumer Price Index. It is expected that in annual terms, the figure will be 5.9%, which is much higher than the previous value of 5.5%. Positive dynamics could become a catalyst for the Bank of England and possibly provoke another increase in interest rates. Also the Retail Price Index and the Budget Report will be published during the day.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing to the ascending plane. The price range is expanding; however, it fails to catch the "bullish" activity of the day before. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its highs is reversing into a horizontal plane, indicating the overbought GBP in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3435, 1.3500.
Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3100, 1.3050.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.3300 with the target at 1.3435. Stop-loss – 1.3230. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 1.3300 as from resistance followed by a breakdown of 1.3250 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 1.3100. Stop-loss – 1.3320.

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Netflix Inc.: wave analysis 28.03.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Netflix Inc. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the wave and of the higher level formed, and a downward correction started to develop as the wave B. Now, the wave of the lower level (А) of B has formed, and the development of the upward correction ( B ) of B has started. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 514.17–558.76. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 326.65.

Main scenario

Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 326.65 with the targets at 514.17–558.76. Implementation period: 7 days and more.

Alternative scenario

The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 326.65 will let the price go down to the levels of 265.70–165.80.

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XAU/USD: wave analysis 01.04.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on XAU/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is developing, within which the wave iii of (iii) has formed, the correctional wave iv of (iii) has ended, and the development of the wave v of (iii) is starting. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 2150.00–2200.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1890.45.

Main scenario

Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1890.45 with the targets at 2150.00–2200.00. Implementation period: 7 days and more.

Alternative scenario

The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1890.45 will let the pair go down to the levels of 1749.62–1681.52.

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Amazon.com Inc.: technical analysis 06.04.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Amazon.com Inc. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The shares of Amazon.com Inc., the world leader in e-commerce, are trading around 3279.00.

On the daily chart of the asset, a new global Expanding formation pattern is developing, and yesterday, the price reached its resistance line of 3380.0, completing the formation of the third wave. The next step in implementing the figure will be forming a fourth downward wave, which, judging by some signs, has already begun.

On the four-hour chart, near the resistance line, there is a completion of a local reversal Head and shoulders pattern; the breakdown of its Neckline, located around 3226.0, allows a decrease to the year's lows around 2705.0.

The readings of technical indicators confirm the high probability of further decline: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range began to narrow actively, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the buying zone.

Trading tips

After the price drops and consolidates below the local support of 3226.0, the main scenario is relevant, which involves opening short positions to reach the year's low at 2705.0. Stop loss is 3400.0, above the current quote. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

After growth and consolidation above the local maximum of 3378.0, an alternative scenario is relevant, assuming the formation of buy positions with the target around 3726.0. Stop loss — 3200.0.

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WTI Crude Oil: wave analysis 11.04.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on WTI Crude Oil for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The price may fall.

On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C developed, and a downward correction develops as the second wave 2 of (1) of C. Now, the wave of the lower level a of 2 is developing, within which the correctional wave (ii) of a and the wave (iii) of a has ended. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction (iv) of the price will fall to the levels of 82.30–67.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 118.28.

Main scenario

Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 118.28 with the targets at 82.30–67.00. Implementation period: 7 days and more.

Alternative scenario

The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 118.28 will let the price grow to the levels of 131.00–145.00.

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USD/CHF: the pair ends the week with strong growth 15.04.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/CHF for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The US dollar is testing the level of 0.9430 for a breakout, updating local highs from March 16. The day before, USD/CHF pair showed steady growth, reacting to the results of the meeting on the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).

As expected, the regulator did not change the monetary policy parameters and kept the rate at zero. At the same time, officials signaled the start of a gradual reduction in bond purchases under the quantitative easing (QE) program from the current 40B euros to 30B euros in May and 20B euros in June, after which the program will probably be completed in Q3. By this time, the ECB will also think about raising the interest rate, although analysts' opinions on this matter differ.

The rest of the macroeconomic background on Thursday remained neutral. In Switzerland, data on the Producer Price Index and Imports were released, which reflected the growth of the index in March by 0.8% MoM and 6.1% YoY, which significantly exceeded the average market forecasts of 0% and 4.9%, respectively. Statistics from the US disappointed investors: Retail Sales data turned out to be negative and recorded a decline from 0.8% to 0.5% in March, while the April Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index unexpectedly rose from 59.4 to 65.7 points.

The Swiss authorities announced their decision to join the fifth package of sanctions adopted by the EU in April against Russia and Belarus. The restrictions include measures related to the closure of ports for ships, as well as land transportation of goods, the import of certain types of wood, fertilizers, seafood, semiconductors, high-tech electronics, and will also affect the activities of companies whose technologies are directly related to the military special operation that is taking place on the territory of Ukraine.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are growing actively. The price range is widening but does not conform to the development of the "bullish" trend in the short run yet. MACD is maintaining a strong buy signal, being located above the signal line. Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is again approaching its highs, indicating the risks of overbought USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9459, 0.9500, 0.9540, 0.9600.
Support levels: 0.9400, 0.9352, 0.9300, 0.9279.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.9459 with the target at 0.9540. Stop-loss – 0.9415. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 0.9459 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.9400 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 0.9300. Stop-loss – 0.9459.

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You can read a Beginner's guide to FOREX Trading online or download it free of charge from the NPBFX analytical portal in the "Education" section. In order to get unlimited access to the E-book and other useful instruments on the portal, you need to register on the NPBFX website.

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