XAU/USD: metal quotes are developing a downward trend 22.06.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on XAU/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

During the Asian session, gold prices are moderately declining, testing 1825.00 for a breakdown and renewing new local lows from June 16.

Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions ahead of the publication of inflation statistics from the UK, as well as the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who, as analysts hope, will outline the immediate prospects for monetary policy. So, some agency representatives said they were not opposed to another rate hike by 75 basis points, and a more conservative position still suggests an increase of only 50 basis points, after which a pause will be required to assess the measures taken.

Quotes of gold, traditionally protective assets, are supported by growing fears about a slowdown in the global economy. Also, the geopolitical risks associated with the development of a military conflict in Ukraine are not weakening yet, while the countries of the world are forced to deal with the consequences of a sharp increase in energy prices. Analysts are confident that rapid inflation on a global scale and a slowdown in economic growth can catalyze stagflation in the US economy, and the US Federal Reserve's measures to tighten monetary policy will be insufficient. It, in turn, will allow gold to regain investor interest and overcome the level of 2000.00.

An additional negative factor for the metal is the increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds amid expectations of further actions by the American regulator. As new signals for the asset, there is the talk about a possible restriction of Russian gold imports by European countries in the next sanctions packages from the EU. In particular, Denmark has previously announced such a possibility.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately declining: the price range narrows slightly from below, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD falls, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic falls, reversing downwards in the center of its working area. The current readings of technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" dynamics in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 1843.37, 1857.27, 1869.49, 1878.84.
Support levels: 1823.09, 1800.00, 1775.00, 1752.87.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a confident downward breakdown of 1823.09 with the target at 1800.00. Stop loss – 1835.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Long positions may be opened after the rebound from 1823.09 and the breakout of 1843.37 with the target at 1869.49. Stop loss – 1830.00.

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NZD/USD: the instrument develops a "bullish" momentum 27.06.2022 

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on NZD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The New Zealand dollar shows a moderate increase, developing a fairly confident "bullish" signal formed last Thursday. NZD/USD is trying to consolidate above 0.6300, receiving support from the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the US.

At the end of last week, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 50.2 points to a new record low of 50.0 points, although analysts expected the index to remain unchanged. Today, investors expect the release of May data on the Durable Goods Orders dynamics. Forecasts suggest a sharp decline from 0.5% to 0.1% due in part to a sharp slowdown in vehicle purchases. On Wednesday, updated data on the dynamics of US GDP for Q1 2022 will be published. The indicator is expected to remain unchanged on the level of –1.5%.

Last weekend, it became known about the creation of the Partners in the Blue Pacific organization, which, in addition to Australia, Great Britain, Japan and the United States, also included New Zealand. It is noted that the main attention of the members of the alliance will focus on strengthening ties in various industries and economic interaction. In addition, the parties will develop measures to combat climate change, as well as to develop transport infrastructure, healthcare, and education. Experts agree that the main goal of creating a new alliance will be to counter the recent increased activity of China, which is trying to strengthen its position in the Pacific region.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady decline. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of multidirectional trading dynamics in the short term. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic reversed upwards, never reaching the level of "20". At the moment, the instrument is located approximately in the center of its area, signaling in favor of the development of corrective growth in the nearest time intervals.

It is worth looking into the possibility of the "bullish" correctional trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6350, 0.6400, 0.6450, 0.6500.
Support levels: 0.6300, 0.6244, 0.6200, 0.6156.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 0.6350 with the target of 0.6450. Stop-loss — 0.6300. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 0.6350 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.6300 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 0.6200. Stop-loss — 0.6350.

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EUR/USD: the asset returned to decline 01.07.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The European currency shows a downtrend, correcting after an attempt at corrective growth the day before, which eventually allowed EUR/USD to retreat from the local lows of June 16. The euro was supported by expectations of a tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB), with representatives of the regulator speaking in favor of a faster increase in interest rates amid worsening inflation forecasts.

Earlier, the ECB announced its readiness to adjust the value during the July meeting by 25 basis points, but one should not exclude the possibility of an increase by 50 basis points at once, to which the inflation data may push the regulator. The day before, for example, the markets paid attention to the dynamics of prices in Spain, which exceeded forecasts and reached 10%. Investors were also disappointed by statistics from Germany: Retail Sales in annual terms fell sharply by 3.6% in May after falling by 0.4% a month earlier. Analysts expected the negative dynamics to worsen, but expected only –2%. At the same time, in monthly terms, the indicator rose by 0.6% after a decrease of 5.4% in April. Investors also paid attention to statistics on the labor market: in June, the Unemployment Change in Germany increased by 133K, while earlier the figure showed a decrease of 4K and the Unemployment Rate accelerated from 5% to 5.3%. Such statistics are explained by the inclusion in the register of a large number of Ukrainian refugees who are forced to look for a job due to the further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced his readiness to join the anti-Russian sanctions, noting that the country intends to look for alternative ways to obtain oil, despite its heavy dependence on resources. He noted that the oil refining infrastructure in Pancevo has used its maximum capacity, and in case of emergency, gasoline prices can rise significantly. Earlier, Vučić said that as part of the sixth package of sanctions, Serbia will stop importing oil from Russia from November this year, which will lead to additional spending from the national budget in the amount of 600 million dollars.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, while remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of "20", reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating the risks of oversold EUR in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0640.
Support levels: 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1.0400 with the target at 1.0300. Stop-loss — 1.0450. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

The breakout of 1.0500 may be a signal to open new long positions with the target of 1.0600. Stop-loss — 1.0450.

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EUR/USD: the instrument develops a strong "bearish" impetus 06.07.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The European currency shows a moderate decline, developing a strong "bearish" momentum, formed the day before. EUR/USD is testing 1.0245 for a breakdown, holding near the record lows updated yesterday.

Significant pressure on the position of the instrument was exerted by alarming data on business activity from S&P Global in the eurozone: the Composite PMI fell to a 16-month low, reflecting deterioration in manufacturing activity and growing fears of a full-fledged recession in the economy. In this regard, investors have adjusted their assessments of the prospects for tightening monetary policy, although there is practically no doubt about the July meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). One way or another, the situation remains tense: the regulator has not raised the rate yet, and the risks of a recession are only increasing.

Today, investors are focused on statistics from the euro area on the dynamics of Retail Sales in May. Analysts' current forecasts are quite optimistic and suggest an increase of 0.4% in monthly terms and 5.4% in annual terms. Also during the day data on Factory Orders in Germany in May will be released, and it is likely to maintain a negative trend at –0.6%.

In the meantime, resources for European consumers will increase in price again. Last week, the Algerian company Sonatrach, whose imports to the EU in June amounted to about 9%, announced the introduction of changes in its pricing policy and, in particular, an increase in tariffs for gas supplies to the eurozone countries. At the moment, negotiations are underway with long-term clients to change the price formula (now it is pegged to Brent Crude Oil), which, however, can be revised every three years.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is expanding, but at the moment it is not keeping up with the surge of "bearish" sentiment. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold EUR in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0300, 1.0350, 1.0400, 1.0450.
Support levels: 1.0234, 1.0200, 1.0150, 1.0100.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1.0234 with the target at 1.0100. Stop-loss — 1.0300. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 1.0234 as from support followed by a breakout of 1.0300 may become a signal for opening new long positions with the target at 1.0400. Stop-loss — 1.0234.

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XAU/USD: gold stays at record lows 11.07.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on XAU/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

XAU/USD is consolidating near the September 2021 lows, updated at the end of the last trading week, when the quotes showed the fastest weekly decline since June 2020, losing 4% in value.

Gold positions came under pressure on Friday amid the publication of a stronger report on the US labor market: the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.6%, while Employment Change rose by 372 thousand, well ahead of the projected 268 thousand, which allows investors to hope for continued tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch indicator, more than 92% of traders are confident in the "hawkish" rhetoric at the next meeting of the regulator, as well as in the adjustment of the value by 75 basis points at the end of this month.

In turn, the USD Index at the beginning of the week rises by 0.26% to 107.280.

This week, the US data on inflation for June will be released, as well as the monthly economic report of the US Fed, the so-called "Beige Book". Current forecasts suggest that the Consumer Price Index in June in annual terms may accelerate from 8.6% to 8.7%, updating record highs, and in monthly terms, the previous growth rate of 1.0% is expected to remain unchanged.

In turn, moderate support for gold in the market is still provided by the expectations of the introduction of new restrictions on the import of Russian gold by European countries and their partners. Some Western countries have already announced the cessation of purchases of the precious metal from the Russian Federation, but so far a new package of EU sanctions with a corresponding ban has not been adopted.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is expanding, making way to new record lows for the "bears". MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic has reached its lows and is trying to reverse upwards, indicating risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1752.87, 1775.00, 1784.31, 1800.00.
Support levels: 1730.00, 1720.00, 1700.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1730.00 with the target at 1700.00. Stop-loss — 1745.00. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

The breakout of 1752.87 may be a signal to open new long positions with the target of 1784.31. Stop-loss — 1735.00.

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GBP/USD: consolidating at record lows 15.07.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The British pound shows near-zero dynamics, testing 1.1820 for a breakdown, returning to active decline after an unsuccessful attempt at corrective growth, which was supported by optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the UK.

On Wednesday, data on the dynamics of GDP and industrial production for May were released. The British economy strengthened by 0.5% after declining by 0.3% a month earlier, although analysts had expected zero dynamics. Industrial Production for the same period increased by 0.9% after falling by 0.1% in the previous month, with forecasts suggesting zero growth, and in annual terms, the figure corrected from 1.6% to 1.4%, while analysts assumed a sharp decline of 0.5%.

Strong macroeconomic statistics increased the chances that the Bank of England will continue to actively tighten monetary policy: the British regulator raised rates 5 times in a row, albeit at a moderate pace. However, the economic situation remains difficult and recession risks remain very high.

The day before, the preliminary second round of elections for the post of Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party ended in the UK. Former Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak won the most votes (101 votes), followed by Associate Trade Policy Minister Penny Mordaunt with 83 votes and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss (64 votes). A new British Prime Minister will be elected on September 5, while the current head of Government, Boris Johnson, is set to resign on September 7.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady decline. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of multidirectional trading dynamics in the short term. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a horizontal direction and is located near its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold GBP in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1854, 1.1933, 1.2000, 1.2074.
Support levels: 1.1800, 1.1758, 1.1700, 1.1600.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 1.1854 with the target of 1.2000. Stop-loss — 1.1790. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 1.1854 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 1.1800 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 1.1700. Stop-loss — 1.1854.

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Visa Inc.: wave analysis 20.07.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Visa Inc. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The price is in correction, the probability of growth is maintained.

On the daily chart, the development of the third wave of the higher level (3) was completed and a downward correction as the fourth wave (4) began. By now, wave A of (4) has already appeared and the construction of wave B of (4) is observed, in which wave a of B is formed. If the assumption is correct, one may expect the growth of the price of the asset to 226.95–236.61. The level of 185.70 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

Main scenario

Long positions are relevant from the corrections above the level of 185.70 with targets at 226.95–236.61. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

Alternative scenario

Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 185.70 will help the instrument continue growth to the levels of 175.00–162.95.

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Pfizer Inc.: technical analysis 25.07.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Pfizer Inc. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The stocks of the innovative biopharmaceutical company Pfizer Inc. are trading slightly above 51.00.

On the daily chart of the asset, the formation of a global corrective trend continues, and the price is clamped within the Triangle pattern with dynamic boundaries of 46.00–54.00.

On the four-hour chart, the local growth of the trading instrument after reaching the resistance line of the pattern at 53.00 has ended, and now a full-fledged reversal is being formed. Given the strength of the resistance line, further movement of quotes can be continued towards the support line around 46.00.

Technical indicators reversed downwards: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are consolidated below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the sell zone, forming new downward bars, being close to the transition level which is typical for this pattern.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the final reversal and continued decline in the asset or consolidation below the local support level of 50.10 with the target at 46.80. Stop loss – 52.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the continued global growth of the asset or consolidation above the resistance line of the pattern at 53.40 with the target at 55.60. Stop loss – 52.80.

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Meta Platforms Inc.: technical analysis 29.07.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Meta Platforms Inc. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The shares of Meta Platforms Inc., which owns the world's largest social network Facebook, are falling, currently trading around 160.00.

On the daily chart of the asset, a global downward channel is forming with dynamic boundaries 135.00–200.00, and at the moment, the price is near its lower border, attempting an upward correction.

On a four-hour chart, local growth is developing within the Expanding formation pattern, where the quotes have reached the lower border around 154.00, where the seventh ascending wave with the target at the upper border of the global channel around 197.00 can start to form.

Technical indicators confirm the likelihood of a reversal and subsequent growth: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are very close to the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading close to the transition level and can cross it at any time.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a reversal and continued local growth of the asset or consolidation above the resistance level of 172.00 to reach the resistance line around 197.00. Stop loss – 167.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the continuation of the downward movement or consolidation below the support level of 154.00 with the target at 135.00. Stop loss – 160.00.

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PayPal Holdings Inc.: technical analysis 03.08.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on PayPal Holdings Inc. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The shares of PayPal Holdings Inc., an American debit payment processor, correct at 88.00.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving above the resistance line of a wide downwards channel with dynamic boundaries of 50.00–80.00, holding at the local high of June 8 at 89.00.

On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the probability of the continuation of the upward dynamics is quite high. If the breakout of the local high occurs soon, the quotes will head towards the annual peak around 122.00.

Technical indicators confirm the high probability of growth, keeping a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator remain above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 94.10 with the target at 122.50. Stop loss — 90.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after a reversal, reduction, and consolidation of the price below 81.70 with the target at 68.20. Stop loss — 85.00.

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Johnson & Johnson: technical analysis 08.08.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Johnson & Johnson for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The shares of US retail holding Johnson & Johnson corrected around 171.00.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is within the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries 163.00–180.00, and after a reversal near the resistance line, it tries to consolidate in the downtrend.

On the four-hour chart, the channel support line is just below the full 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 167.00, and the key resistance for the upside move is last week's local high, coinciding with the underlying Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 174.30, which seems to be quite durable.

Technical indicators are signaling in favor of a possible decline: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have begun to move away from the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is decreasing in the sell zone, forming downward bars.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price drops and consolidates below 167.00 with the target at 161.60. Stop loss – 170.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after a reversal, growth, and consolidation of the price above 174.30 with the target at 179.00. Stop loss – 172.00.

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EUR/USD: euro is trying to consolidate above 1.0300 12.08.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The European currency shows ambiguous dynamics, consolidating near 1.0315. The day before, EUR/USD again made attempts to strengthen its positions, approaching the local highs of July 5, updated on Wednesday. The surge of "bullish" sentiment was due to the depreciation of the US currency against the backdrop of the release of optimistic data on consumer inflation. However, the correction of the dollar did not last long, and soon the demand for the asset began to recover, and the quotes were supported by statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve. In particular, the Chair of the San Francisco Fed, Mary Daly, said that she still expects a 75 basis point increase in interest rates during the September meeting of the regulator.

The pressure on the dollar increased again yesterday after the release of statistics on the Producer Price Index, which in July decreased by 0.5% in monthly terms and added 9.8% in annual terms, which was significantly lower than the market's expectations of an increase in indicators by 0.2% and 10.4% respectively.

Today, investors will pay attention to the July publications on consumer inflation in France and Spain, as well as data on the dynamics of Industrial Production in the euro area.

According to Bloomberg, European industrial enterprises are in a difficult situation after the decision of the authorities to reduce gas imports. Volkswagen AG representatives predict a fall in revenue against the background of regularly rising fuel tariffs and a decrease in car sales (in July, the figure was -20.0%). Now Tesla Inc. has become the market leader in electric vehicles, increasing its presence in Germany by 0.6%. Meanwhile, automotive components manufacturer Continental AG has estimated additional costs for raw materials and energy at 3.5 billion euros. The German government has already received a large number of applications from enterprises asking for exemption from the need to save "blue fuel" due to the difficult economic situation.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the "bullish" activity at the moment. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is also trying to consolidate above the zero level. Stochastic, having approached the level of "80", reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating the risks of the overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0350, 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500.
Support levels: 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200, 1.0150.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1.0300 with the target at 1.0200. Stop-loss — 1.0350. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 1.0300 as from support followed by a breakout of 1.0350 may become a signal for opening new long positions with the target at 1.0450. Stop-loss — 1.0300.

Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: glossary

Beginning traders certainly face a lot of specialized concepts and lexicon on FOREX, which are often not fully been understood. Swap, tick, hedge, margin calls are often unfamiliar to beginning traders. But the lack of knowledge of these fundamentals make a competent market vision impossible. So glossary on the NPBFX analytical portal could be an excellent helper in this case, which contains all the main definitions with explanations in a compact and accessible form. All concepts are arranged in alphabetical order, so that you can easily and quickly find and explore a new concept for yourself.

If you have any questions about trading instruments, you can always ask an analyst in the online chat on the portal and get a free consultation of an experienced specialist.

Use the current recommendations of analysts on EUR/USD and trade efficiently with NPBFX.