AUD/USD: wave analysis 30.11.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on AUD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The pair may grow.

On the 4-hour chart, the upward correction develops as a wave 2 of (5). Now wave a of 2 is developing, within which the waves (i) and (ii) of a have formed. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.7450–0.7587. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7197.

Main scenario

Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 0.7197 with the targets at 0.7450–0.7587. Implementation period: 7 days and more.

Alternative scenario

The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 0.7197 will let the pair go down to the levels of 0.7020–0.6950.

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EUR/USD: wave analysis 06.12.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The pair may grow.

On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction of the higher level develops as a wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now an upward correction is developing as a second wave ii of C, within which the wave (c) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.1511–1.1586. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1266.

Main scenario

Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.1266 with the targets at 1.1511–1.1586. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Alternative scenario

The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1266 will let the pair go down to the levels of 1.1200–1.1150.

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USD/CHF: wave analysis 10.12.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/CHF for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The probability of downward movement remains.

On the H4 chart, the downward correction of the higher level is developing as a wave (2), which includes the formation of the wave C of (2). At the moment, it seems that the local correction as a wave ii of C was completed, and the third wave iii of C has begun. If the assumption is correct, the pair will continue to decline to the levels of 0.9724–0.9618. The critical level for this scenario is 1.0008.

Main scenario

Short positions will become relevant below the level of 1.0008 with a target in the range of 0.9724–0.9618. Implementation period: 7+ days.

Alternative scenario

Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 1.0008 will allow the pair to rise to the level of 1.0122.

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GBP/USD: wave analysis 14.12.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The probability of decline is still strong.

On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction of the higher level is being developed as wave 2. At the moment, it is likely that wave C of 2 is being developed, within which the fifth wave of the lower level v of C is being formed. The pair will probably reach the levels of 1.2475–1.2412. The critical level for this scenario is 1.2763.

Main scenario

Short positions will become relevant below the level of 1.2763 with a target in the range of 1.2475-1.2412. Implementation period: 5-7 days.

Alternative scenario

Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 1.2763 will let the pair grow to the level of 1.2933.

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USD/CHF: the instrument moves horizontally 19.12.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/CHF for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Yesterday, USD moved horizontally against CHF.

The possibility of a coming slowdown in the growth of the Fed’s interest rates affects USD negatively. However, on Tuesday, the US currency was supported by data from American construction market. In November, Building Permits number increased from 1.264 million to 1.328 million, which was much better than the negative forecast of 1.259 million. November Housing Starts indicator also rose from 1.217 to 1.256 million, while the experts forecasted growth only to 1.225 million

CHF is under pressure from the updated SECO Swiss economic outlook: GDP growth in 2018 and 2019 will decline due to weak domestic demand. It is expected that in 2019, GDP will grow by 1.5%, and in 2020 – by 1.7%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately reducing. The price range narrows from above, reflecting the development of the flat trade dynamics. MACD indicator falls, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is falling more actively is rapidly approaching its lows, reflecting that the instrument can become oversold soon.

It is better to wait until the situation is clear.

Resistance levels: 0.9936, 0.9951, 0.9980, 1.0000.

Support levels: 0.9898, 0.9861, 0.9836.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the levels of 0.9936–0.9951 with the target at 1.0000. Stop loss is 0.9920–0.9900.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.9898 with the targets at 0.9836–0.9820. Stop loss is 0.9930.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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XAU/USD: gold prices are rising 24.12.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on XAU/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Gold prices resumed fairly steady growth during today's Asian session, approaching local highs updated on December 20 again. The instrument is supported by the situation around a possible slowdown in the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.

After the December interest rate increase, most of the managers of the regulator said that next year the rate will be raised only twice.

In addition, investors continue to monitor the situation around the US-China trade relations and the growth of domestic political pressure in the United States. In particular, over the weekend, the Republican Party, led by Donald Trump, was not able to achieve the allocation of USD 5 billion for the project to build a wall on the border with Mexico. The US President said he would not sign such a budget, which led to the government shutdown once again.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding, but it fails to catch the development of "bullish" trend at the moment. MACD indicator is growing preserving a moderate buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic also keeps the uptrend, but approaches its maximum levels, which indicates the risks associated with overbought gold in the short and ultra-short term.

Existing "bullish" positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

Resistance levels: 1266.26, 1270.11, 1276.87.

Support levels: 1260.75, 1257.82, 1253.72, 1250.66.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1266.26. Take profit — 1276.87. Stop loss — 1260.75.

A breakdown of 1257.82 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1250.66 or 1247.00. Stop loss — 1264.00.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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AUD/USD: technical analysis 31.12.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on AUD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

AUD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is growing, having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

AUD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is growing, having broken out its longer MA. The is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.7015 (local lows), 0.6910 (September 2015 lows), 0.6830 (January 2016 lows).

Resistance levels: 0.7070 (local highs), 0.7100 (local highs), 0.7175 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is testing its strong support near 0.7015. There is a chance of an upward correction.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7100 with the target at 0.7175 and stop-loss at 0.7070. Validity – 3-5 days.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7015 with targets at 0.6910, 0.6830 and stop-loss at 0.7070. Validity – 3-5 days.

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NZD/USD: technical analysis 04.01.2019

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on NZD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

NZD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading at the bottom of Bollinger bands. Key support level is 0.6625. The indicator is directed downwards, and the price range has widened, confirming the downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping a sell signal. Stochastic does not give a signal to enter the market.

NZD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument consolidated at the top of Bollinger bands but is still testing the support level of 0.6682. The indicator is directed downwards, the price range remains quite wide, indicating a continuation of the downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping a sell signal. Stochastic leaves the overbought area, forming a sell signal.

Key levels

Resistance levels: 0.6737, 0.6777, 0.6822, 0.6855, 0.6914.

Support levels: 0.6682, 0.6653, 0.6625, 0.6591, 0.6536.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 0.6625 and stop loss 0.6720.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6740 with the target at 0.6810 and stop loss 0.6715.

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

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USD/JPY: USD remains under pressure 10.01.2019

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

USD showed a decline against JPY on Wednesday, leveling off growth at the beginning of the current trading week. The main reason for the emergence of "bearish" dynamics was quite cautious Fed protocols, published the day before.

Heads of the regulator pointed out the expediency of “a certain increase in the rate”, however any exact dates were not named. In addition, the protocols reflected growing uncertainty about risks in the global economy and low inflationary expectations in the United States.

In turn, JPY is under pressure from the US-China trade negotiations. The prospect of their success makes investors withdraw from the safe-haven asset and invest in other currencies. Meanwhile, Wednesday's Japanese average cash earnings data grew by 2.0%, which is the most significant indicator since last August and the World Bank raised the growth forecast for the Japanese economy in 2019 from 0.8% to 0.9%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is actively narrowing, but still remains quite spacious for the current trend at the market. MACD is reversing downwards recovering a sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, reversing downwards near the level of "80", which is a formal margin of oversold USD.

The further development of the downtrend is possible in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 108.52, 109.07, 110.00, 110.45.

Support levels: 108.00, 107.47, 107.00, 106.44.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened if the price rebounds from 107.47 followed by the breakout of 108.00. Take profit — 110.00. Stop loss — 107.30.

A breakdown of 107.47 or 107.30 may be a signal to further sales with target at 105.88 or 105.58. Stop loss — 108.00.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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WTI Crude Oil: price is consolidating 14.01.2019

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Current trend

After an active growth at the beginning of the year, oil prices are consolidating near the level of $50 per barrel.

"Black gold" is supported by investors' hopes for a positive outcome of China-US trade negotiations and the end of the trade conflict in the near future. In addition, quotes are rising against the background of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, which reported a likely reduction in production by 4.8% to 1.42 million barrels per day in 2019, which is the minimum figure for the last 30 years.

Last Friday, Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count report affected the instrument positively. During the week, the number of rigs decreased by 4 to 873 units. Over the past period, the figure also declined from 885 to 877.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily. The price range narrows, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and is testing the zero line but is not likely to consolidate above it. Stochastic declines, reacting to the active “bearish” dynamics of the beginning of the week.

The current readings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the corrective decline in the short and/or super short term.

Resistance levels: 52.00, 53.19, 54.43, 55.64.

Support levels: 50.00, 49.00, 48.05, 47.00, 45.80.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 50.00 with the target at 52.00 or 53.19. Stop loss is 49.00.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 50.00 with the target at 48.05 or 47.00. Stop loss is 51.00.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: glossary

Beginning traders certainly face a lot of specialized concepts and lexicon on FOREX, which are often not fully been understood. Swap, tick, hedge, margin calls are often unfamiliar to beginning traders. But the lack of knowledge of these fundamentals make a competent market vision impossible. So glossary on the NPBFX analytical portal could be an excellent helper in this case, which contains all the main definitions with explanations in a compact and accessible form. All concepts are arranged in alphabetical order, so that you can easily and quickly find and explore a new concept for yourself.

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USD/JPY: the dollar is strengthening 18.01.2019

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

USD grows moderately against JPY, renewing local highs since January 2, 2018.

Yesterday, investors were focused on the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. He noted that central banks should carefully assess the impact on the economy of unconventional monetary policy measures since they can cause various side effects. Kuroda also mentioned that rapidly aging societies, including Japan, may complicate the work of banks since reducing the demand for their services may induce financial institutions to encourage risky investments.
Today, during the Asian session, the pair is strengthening due to poor macroeconomic statistics from Japan. In December, the national Consumer Price Index slowed down from +0.8% YoY to +0.3% YoY. CPI excluding prices for fresh food fell from +0.9% YoY to +0.7% YoY, while the growth by 0.8% YoY was expected.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse horizontally. The price range narrows, reflecting the emergence of an upward trend in the short term. MACD is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards but is near its highs, which indicates that USD can become overbought in the super short term.

It is better to keep current long positions until the market situation becomes clear.

Resistance levels: 109.45, 110.00, 110.45, 111.00.

Support levels: 109.07, 108.58, 108.00, 107.47.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 109.70 or 110.00 with the targets at 111.00–111.50. Stop loss is 109.40–109.10.

Short positions can be opened after a downward reversal near current levels and a breakdown of the level of 109.00 or 108.70 with the target at 108.00 or 107.80.

Stop loss is 109.30–109.50.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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EUR/USD: euro remains under pressure 22.01.2019

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Yesterday, EUR rose uncertainly against USD within the correction after last week’s fall. However, the pair failed to consolidate in the new positions and by the end of the session, lost its advantage.

EUR growth is constrained by negative PRC data. Chinese Q4 2018 GDP declined. The indicator fell from 1.6% QoQ to 1.5% QoQ and from 6.5% YoY to 6.4% YoY (the worst figure since 1990). Also, European investors are monitoring the situation around Brexit. Yesterday, Prime Minister Theresa May announced a backup plan for an agreement with the EU.

Today, January German and EU data on the index of business sentiment from ZEW will be published. According to the forecast, the number of pessimists in German business circles will increase: the figure will grow from –17.5 to –18.4. EU figure will decrease from –21.0 to –20.1 but pessimism will continue to prevail in European business circles, which may adversely affect EUR.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move flat. The price range is virtually unchanged but remains wide enough for the current activity level. MACD falls, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reached its lows, reversed horizontally, indicating the growing risks of an upward correction in the super short term.

It is better to wait until the situation is clear.

Resistance levels: 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1421, 1.1442.

Support Levels: 1.1351, 1.1333, 1.1300, 1.1268.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a rebound from 1.1351 and a breakout of 1.1376 with the targets at 1.1421–1.1442. Stop loss is 1.1351. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.1351 with the target at 1.1300. Stop loss is 1.1376–1.1380. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

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If you have any questions about trading instruments, you can always ask an analyst in the online chat on the portal and get a free consultation of an experienced specialist.

Use the current recommendations of analysts on EUR/USD and trade efficiently with NPBFX.