Fundamental Analysis: May 11, 2016

Tuesday, the dynamics of the market was enliven with the help of the calendar of economic events. Job Openings was issued by the US wherein the data came in at 5.757 million contrary to the report of 5.431 million.

The euro currency heightened a little in opposition with the dollar. The euro zone has made a report about Industrial Production in Germany for March which the data dropped low more than what was expected wherein it came at -1,3% contrary with the expectations of -0,2%. Meanwhile, exports displayed a fast growth showing 1,9% against expectations -0,1%.

The Trade Balance which has sustained the pound was showed by the United Kingdom. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney apprised the commercial banks and other financial institutions regarding a probable rate cut if ever the UK departs from the European Union.

The fall of the yen currency is an aftermath of the statement of the Minister of Finance on Monday. If it happens that the yen continues to grow, the regulator is ready to intercede, as stated by the ASO. The Japan Minister of Economy Nobuteru Ishihara stated that after the rally of the yen in the past week, he is nearly observing the financial markets.

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 12, 2016

The increase of risk appetite caused a positive effect on investor's sentiment. As a funding currency, the yen were pressured by the optimism showed by the leading stock exchanges. However, the US and Japanese government bonds yield differential had been decreasing for many consecutive trading days. The dollar/yen pair decreased by the end of the trades.

The first support occurs at 108.20 and at 107.40 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.00 and at 109.80 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 13, 2016

The significant event on Thursday was the inflation report of the Bank of England. As we have expected, the Central Bank statements about the economy and the inflation increase were quite negative. The rate remained unmodified by the UK regulator at the level of 0,5%.

The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal motion and the Kijun-sen forms a descending movement creating a "Golden Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

Fundamental Analysis: May 17, 2016

Earlier on Monday, the dollar has stabilized as the sturdy US reports, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment, reduced the investor's concerns regarding the development in the economy. The positive data also enliven the expectations that the Fed may brought up the interest rates as soon as possible contrary with what is expected.  But later on, the dollar dropped to its low.

The Monday trading was frail with inferior volatility amidst the empty economic calendar. The financial markets in Germany and France refrain from working as they celebrate the Holy Spirit on Monday. We have not heard any significant report from the UK.

Meanwhile, the previous gains of yen in opposition with the dollar was lost. The reason of its fall was because of the unsatisfying Chinese economic forecasts.

The center of our attraction this week would be the Machine Tool Orders in Japan, the forecast of the Fed, Consumer Prices and the Industrial Production in the Us.

Fundamental Analysis: May 18, 2016

We heard a lot of economic news on Tuesday, US data being the main driver of the day. The States has given the report of Core Consumer Price Index to the public wherein the data came in at 0,2% which occur simultaneously with the report and also the Industrial Production which reached 0,7% against the reported 0,3%. The Federal Reserve representatives, Williams and Lockhart gave their statements. The idea of raising the rates twice or thrice this year was supported by Williams. Meanwhile, Lockhart stated that the negative rates scenario was not intended. 

As for the Eurozone, it only published their positive Trade Balance for March wherein the data came in at 28.6 billion against the report of 22.5 billion.

Since September last year, the inflation in the UK decelerated in April for the first time which also caused the pound to lessen its gains contrary with the dollar. After increasing by 0,5% in March, the Retail Price Index grew by 0,3% y/y. The inflation was expected to stay at 0,5% by the traders, but the British inflation has been low from the target level of 2% for more than 2 years.

In March, the Japanese Industrial Production aggressively increased wherein the data came in at 3,8% against the previous 3,6%. While the Capacity Utilization grew from -5,4% to 3,2% in March. But still these statistics could not support the yen.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 19, 2016

As the expectations that the Fed would heighten the rates is growing, the US dollar increased contrary to the euro on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index for April reached 0,2% against the expected -0,2% as published by the Euro zone.

The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price may be found below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a descending movement. This activity will remain until the price goes below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 23, 2016

The Aussie has found support at the 0.72 level after moving sideways since Thursday which we view as neutral. Our perspective is unlikely to change in the immediate future as there is little data scheduled to be released this week that will impact AUD/USD.

After closing in New York at 0.7228, the pair is now trading at 0.7250 after hitting an intraday high of 0.7261 in earlier session.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak later today in Sydney. He is expected to to touch on Australia’s lagging inflation and labor market. Stevens may also hint the board members’ sentiment on an interest rate hike this month. The business capital expenditure report for the first quarter will be out this week, but low volatility is expected as markets’ focus are now on the country’s inflation.

On the US side, the FOMC minutes last week implied an earlier rate increase in June, ahead of the September monetary policy meeting where the benchmark rate is expected to rise.

The first support occurs at 0.7225 and 0.7210 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 0.7333 and 0.7436 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is climbing.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 24, 2016

A slew of hawkish statements from Fed officials weighed in on the EUR/USD, paired with the Germany’s disappointing manufacturing PMI.

Philadelphia Fed President Harker and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that a June rate hike is “appropriate” given the US’ strong economic data. An increase will also allow Fed enough space to lower it should financial instability hit the country. The two officials said that more rate hike is possible next year if favorable US data continue.

Meanwhile, Germany, the Eurozone’s biggest economy, reported a lower slower manufacturing PMI growth. The latest release grew by 1.3 percent year-on-year, similar to the previous month’s 1.3 percent. Economists forecasted a 1.6 percent rise. The pair is now trading at 1.1185, topping at 1.1706 in earlier session. The first support is at 1.1067 and 1.0937 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a negative position and the price is declining.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 25, 2016

The Bonds market visualized an increasing optimism as the 10-years German government bonds yield increased which also heightened the charm of the European assets. The center of the attraction was the Economic Sentiment in May (the ZEW Institute). The index aggressively decreased which weakened the euro wherein the data came in at 6.4 against the expected 12.0.

The first support occurs at 1.1130 and at 1.1070 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1200 and at 1.1250 subsequently.

An inveterate and a solid sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. This activity will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

Fundamental Analysis: May 27, 2016

In the midst of positive economic forecasts, the dollar reinforced its positions. As stated by the Fed, the US regulator may heightened the rates at its conference this coming June. Meanwhile, in the economic news, the United States presented the Initial Jobless Claims wherein the volume appeared at 268,000 against the report of 275,000.

The euro was bolstered by the agreement happened between the Eurozone and the Greece. The latter attained an agreement with its creditors and shall take a new tranche of loans in the amount of 10 billion euro.

It has been inveterated that the recoupment of the British economy became sluggish by the second Gross Domestic Product estimate for the first quarter in the UK. The economy showed a growth by 0,4% in the first quarter from 0,6% in Q4 2015. The economy of Britain encountered a difficulty with a devitalized growth in emerging markets particularly in China. The approaching referendum also decelerated the growth. 

The dollar stick around in a range waiting for the statement of Janet Yellen. The market is anticipating hints from the regulator about the probable rate hike in June. The yen raised and bereaved the dollar from its recent gains. The investors involuntarily close positions before there are any probable risk that may occur.

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 30, 2016

AUD/USD is taking a beating after Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that a rate hike is “appropriate in the next coming months,” fueling speculations of a rate hike in June’s monetary policy meeting.

Bears are surrounding the Australian dollar as high it loses steam, trading at 0.7175 from last week’s 0.72 level. The MACD indicator is in neutral position.

The first support occurs at 0.7065 and 0.6827, while the first resistance occurs at 0.7243 and 0.7331 subsequently.

The pair is in for a volatile ride this week with a deluge of data coming from both sides. Australia’s Company Gross Operating Profits slowed down again to -4.7 percent in the first quarter after sliding by 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. This indicates weakening profits of private firms.

New home sales in April declined by 4.7 percent from the previous reading’s 8.9 percent increase. The country’s current account and number of building approvals will follow today, while trade balance, retail data, and GDP will be released on Tuesday.   

On the greenback’s side, consumer confidence and Core CPE Price Index will start the week of significant volatility, trailing to manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls in the later part of the week. Several Fed officials are also scheduled to deliver speeches.