Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 7, 2016

The Aussie dollar is holding on to the bulls with the latest decision from the RBA to keep interest rate at 1.75 percent, a widely-expected move based on strong economic indicators. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7441 and rising.

The first support is seen at 0.7312 and 0.7167 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7530 and 0.7649 subsequently.

Australia’s GDP rose by 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, with an annualized growth of 0.2 percent, the quickest in four years. However, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that low inflation and an appreciating domestic currency may pose greater risks to the economy. The RBA board expect inflation, which is at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, to reach their target of 2 to 3 percent.

A suddenly dovish Yellen is hurting the USD which rallied last week after a rate hike becomes more possible at Fed’s policy meeting in June.

The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is climbing.

Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: June 15, 2016

A latest survey showing that Vote Leave is points ahead dragged the British pound to 1.41 cents against a stronger US dollar. As the EU referendum approaches, the sterling is swaying nonstop due to voters’ sentiment and the release of poll results after another.

TNS revealed yesterday that 47 percent of respondents wanted the UK to leave the EU, while only 40 percent wanted to remain a member of the bloc. GBP/USD fell to two-month lows.

UK inflation in May was also on the red, printing only a 0.3 percent rise, similar to the same period last year. Analysts were expecting a 0.4 percent growth. In m/m terms, CPI also disappointed as it climbed by 0.2 percent, missing the forecasted 0.3 percent. Transport costs rose by 0.9 percent in Mayi from the previous month but was offset by declines in food and clothing.

As we predicted, CPI didn’t have significant effect on the sterling especially because a Brexit poll was released in the same day. The Bank of England’s decision on its interest rate is next on the GBP’s economic headline.

The USD performed slightly stronger than its counterparts with the release of positive retail sales which hit 0.5 percent m/m against a 0.3 percent forecast. Core retail sales was in line with expectations at 0.4 percent. Both exports and imports at 1.1 percent and 1.4 percent respectively eclipsed their forecasted rates.

Atlanta Fed upgraded its GDP forecast for Q2 to 2.8 percent from an initial estimate of 2.5 percent. Strong retail sales was also viewed as a signal that consumer expenditure will most likely print robust numbers.

We are looking at an immediate support of 1.4089 and 1.4040 subsequently, while resistance is at 1.4265 and 1.4350. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 1.4142 and rising.

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: June 22, 2016

EUR/USD was hit with profit-taking and a warning from ECB president Mario Draghi that another stimulus is on the way. The euro retreated to 1.12 cents after reaching 1.13 in the past days due to a firming ‘Bremain’ public sentiment. The pair is trading at 1.1272.

Draghi said that more stimulus is on the way as the ECB sees inflation rate missing the 2 percent target until 2018. Inflation is predicted to reach 1.3 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018.

On the data front, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment for June was at 19.2, largely exceeding the predicted 4.7 increase. The country’s current conditions grew to 54.5 from 53.1 in May, while the Eurozone’s economic sentiment was up to 20.2, surpassing the 15.3 expected rate.

The USD is also taking a beating from Yellen’s statement that shows Fed’s worry over the labor market. The Fed chairwoman effectively reduced the possibility of a rate hike in its next monetary meeting in July.

EUR/USD is still on the bullish side but a drop below the immediate support of 1.1240 will move it to a neutral position, with the next support at 1.1213. The first resistance is at 1.1291 and 1.1350 subsequently.  The MACD indicator is in a positive location.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 30, 2016

Followed by the Consumer Confidence report in the Eurozone, the euro currency has not made any alteration with its positions. Concurrently, the ECB will not whisk with the further monetary policy easing. There should be a proof that the economy of the Eurozone is declining before it implements any action. 

Slowly, the euro managed to step up continuously. It is showed in the 4-hour chart that the instrument stayed in a downside channel and the euro increased to its upper boundary.  The pair was likely to regain 0.47% and has made a new local high at 1.1130. The resistance occurs at 1.1130 while the support stands at 1.1000.

The MACD indicator was kept standing on a negative location while its histogram increased. The indicator will also give buy signals while its histogram increases. RSI indicator is in an impartial location and its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal.

The price is under the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which goes downwards indicating a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a sturdy resistance for the euro which it touched yesterday. The EUR/USD tries to revert into the ascending channel on the daily chart.

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: July 11, 2016

After the issuance of the monthly report for the non-farm payroll data, the AUD/USD pair quickly had a rise in price movement. Due to its strong report the Australian Dollar attracted more investors as presented in the daily swing chart. Technically, the pair demonstrated a horizontal price movement for the past few days near 50% levels. The main range is defined from .7285 to .7645 while reaching its 50% level that is .7465. At the same time, the short-term range had a moving average from .7645 to .7301. Its 50% level falls at .7473. If the two 50% levels is combined, the .7473 and .7465 will create a strong trend that would prevail on the existing market movement.

A strong move over .7571 will predict a downward change in value which is .7535 by which it would give a signal to the buyers. The angle of the moving average under .7571 will call the attention of the currency sellers. Long term investors should be cautious in dealing with this price since it is the trigger point of the potential targets .7573 and .7565. Traders are suggested to develop the sustained move above .7571 through a sharply bullish tone.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 13 2016

AUD/USD recorded its highest stock price on May 3. But today the pair obtained a lower rate after a growth surge that happened yesterday. The recent strength of the market's trend was remarked by the appetite for risk in the global economy.

The Aussie Dollar has improved since the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced interest rates and they are now regenerating all their losses during the post-Brexit.

The daily swing chart defined the pair's main trend as an uptrend and made it cut down the Brexit top that changed the .7645 into .7285 as the market bottom.

The main price range is .7834 to .7145. The retracement alert level is close above .7569 to .7487, this shows a chance of an upside strengthening.

The market movement occurred to an uptrending angle at .7665 by which it is close to the result of yesterday’s strength at .7622.

Meanwhile, AUD/USD may take a bullish or long position in certain securities due to a sustained market movement over .7665 and this would probably begin an upside momentum to rotate the downtrending angle at .7687.

Technically, it is difficult to deal with .7665 and coping with this real time exchange rate will signal the presence of more sellers than buyers. If the price continued a downward sloping average below .7539, it indicates weakness for the next target.

Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD: July 14, 2016

The EUR/USD pair was subject to pressure following the release of China’s latest trade balance data. The Euro went up by 0.0012 or roughly +0.11%, hitting 1.1084 from its low of 1.1042.

EUR traders can now breathe a sigh of relief after the trade balance data from China came out in their favor after the news release signalled a possible volatility. Exports came out at -4.8% after an estimate of -4.1%. On the other hand, imports came out at -8.4%, a long shot from its forecast of -5.0%. Meanwhile the dollar’s headline figure for June came out at $48.1 billion, about $2 billion lower than May’s headline figure, with economists gunning for a reading of $46.64 billion.

After US stock indices had an upward surge, Investors and traders are now back to monitoring global equity assets with the promise of higher risk assets, putting more confidence in the EUR/USD and aiding in its overall recovery.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2016

Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly increased with an exchange rate of 1.0874 but experienced to have a reverse path today and formed a negative candle pattern with a price rate of 1.1067 . The pair continued to strike around within the consolidation period and it snap back in the bottom of 1.10 level and 1.12 level at the top. Short-term market rallies will continue to sell and offer various opportunities that support short-term charts.

Fundamental Analysis: July 19 2016

Currency Pair GBP/USD (British Pound/U.S. Dollar) has earned 55 points just as the U.S paper dollars go through a few price differences. Short-term buyers are expecting to have a significant data set this impending week since the recent British Prime Minister is now working for a new trade agreement with Europe. The moving average of the sterling pound is 1.3237 and gained up to 0.5% that yielded $1.3256. The pound increased right after the time of announcing the deal for adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) and when the policymaker of the Bank of England, Martin Weale released a statement about the need of a firmer financial evidences in order to change bank policy and bring an impact to U.K after they leave EU behind.

The BOE provided an additional market liquidity and cutback the mandatory capital requirements for the credit unions. Most of the Monetary Policy Committee members is anticipating for a stable movement on the 4th of August immediately prior to the publication of economic conditions and forecast.

Eventually, Weale will hand his resignation in the rear of the meeting next month. He confirmed that there is no instances of panic selling or panic buying among traders and investors after the strong vote for Brexit last month. Weale also said that central banks are far beyond the horizon of the falling market.

EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis: July 20 2016

The EUR/JPY recorded a downturn with an estimate of 35 points to 117.23 after euro traded a flat-lining, though the Japanese yen strongly gained a higher level just before the meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to be held next week, July 28-29. The BoJ expects that banks all over the world will cease the feverish trading cues. While the European Central Bank (ECB) already stated that they will set up a meeting this week.

The movement of Governor Kuroda's Mario Draghi recovered and will continue to affect him as he stands to lose through the monetary course. However, he can reconsider the route he used to take or measure the BoJ's quantitative easing then accept that he is suffering from defeat. On the other hand, Kuroda could apply the recommendation from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke about the deflation of Japan for a long period of time.

Whereas, the conjecture of the BoJ on their upcoming meeting is that Japan will pursue the “helicopter money” in order to widen the perpetual bond payments. The analysts from Morgan Stanley pointed out about the reports issued last few months ago by which it appeared that BoJ had an increase on their purchases beyond their official year pace worth $750 billion.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 21 2016

    The EUR/USD gradually declined at 1.1009, dropping at 0.0011 or -0.10% because there is a build up of selling pressure that moves technically into a weaker global market since July 2014 which has 1.1164 as their highest points.

    Investors are now fully prepared since the European Central Bank (ECB) have announced their monetary policy today thus resulted to a physically lower level of volume and volatility. According to the ECB, they planned not to enact new policy to their current protocol but it is still possible for the bank to issue a statement about the negative effects of inflation with response to the Brexit decision. After the dovish tone statement made by the ECB they intended to have a break for eight weeks.

    The Brexit decision also affected the main driver of the price growth which is the relative value of U.S. Dollar. The report about the U.S Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of June made the dollar to settle against the Euro and the dollar continuously to heighten just as the U.S. Retail Sales excelled more over their anticipated outcome.

    Yesterday, the report about the bullish housing were released and it supported the Fed rate to have a chance in increasing its rate hike up to 50% in response to the upcoming meeting on the month of December. Due to the absence of any major economic releases the market presented a two-way market on Wednesday.

    In addition to the ECB announcement, traders can decide whether to cutback their positions over the long run since the EUR/USD may continue to finished a lower interest rate because of the rate differential against the U.S dollar. To wrap it up, the ECB could plan for an additional quantitative easing program while the U.S Fed is settling an increase for the recovery of the U.S dollar rate hike.