EUR/USD. December 31, 2019 – Euro is confidently approaching 1.1240

The euro continues to grow, breaking the level of 1.1200. Today, in anticipation of the New Year holidays, trading activity will remain low, since most of the world markets will be closed.

Support for the European currency continues to be provided by positive information on the US and China trade deal. Representatives of China reported that the leaders of two countries took a phone talk, and discussed the details of the first part of the trade agreement. It is noted, that the signing of the deal will most likely take place in the first week of January 2020.

Such a decrease in trade tension has a positive effect on the entire global economy, which, in turn, will increase the demand for risky assets and support the «eurobulls» in the near future.

USD/CAD. January 08, 2020 – Canadian dollar remains at local highs

Oil continues to trade at local highs ($69 per barrel), supporting all commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar. At the same time, pressure on currencies is exerted by risk aversion amid escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. The current CAD quote is 1.3000.

It should be noted that the Canadian dollar is the least vulnerable to risk aversion, since the Canadian economy mainly has support of the US market. This fact allows looney quotes to stabilize in the area of local maximums.

In addition, a further increase in oil prices can completely neutralize the risk aversion factor, an this will allow the USD/CAD pair to continue to decline to 1.3150.

EUR/USD. January 10, 2020 – The dollar remains strong at 1.11

The EUR/USD pair remains stable just below 1.1100. The ending week was rich in publications on the American labor market. On Wednesday, data on the number of jobs in the private sector from ADP came out, which reflected an increase of 202 thousand against a growth a month earlier by 124 thousand. The forecast assumed an increase of 140 thousand.

Yesterday, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week were presented: the number of Americans first applying for benefits fell to a minimum level of 5 weeks. The indicator decreased by 9 thousand – to 214 thousand.

Today, attention should be paid to the release of statistics on the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP). Experts believe that the indicator grew in December by 266 thousand after an increase of 162 thousand in November. Average hourly wages are expected to increase by 0.2% in monthly terms.

Thus, such strong statistics providing significant support to the US currency will allow the dollar to consolidate below the level of 1.11.

GBP/USD. January 14, 2020 – Pound weakens since the beginning of the year

The British currency stopped its decline at 1.2950 and managed to stabilize below the level of 1.3000. Earlier, weak data on industrial production in the UK put pressure on the sterling exchange rate. According to statistics, the volume of industrial production in the country in November fell by 1.2% on a monthly basis against the growth of 0.4% m/m in October.

Manufacturing output also showed a decline in November – by 1.7% m/m. At the same time, the volume of production in the construction sector recovered after the October fall by 2.2% m/m, showing an increase of 1.9% m/m.

British GDP data also disappointed the markets: the economy slowed down by 0.3% on a monthly basis after rising 0.1% in October. Experts note that such figures reflect the weakest growth rate of the British economic system over the past 7 years.

As a result, the pound fell from 1.33 to 1.30 in just a couple of weeks.

EUR/USD. January 16, 2020 – Euro faintly grows amid the results of signing a deal between the US and China

Yesterday, the euro showed moderate growth to the level of 1.1160 after signing the first-phase trade agreement between the US and China. The deal obliges China to increase purchases of American goods by $200 billion from the 2017 level, as well as to avoid manipulating the exchange rate and taking additional measures in the issue of protecting intellectual property of American technologies.

The United States, in turn, promised to reduce duties on Chinese goods in the amount of $120 billion from the current 15% to 7.5% and give up duties on the remaining Chinese imports. At the same time, 25% duties on $360 billion will remain unchanged. However, the US President noted that the issue of reducing these tariffs can be considered when discussing the second stage of the transaction. The results of the meeting did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair, although they reduced the overall tension on world sites.

Today, attention should be paid to the publication of the minutes of the ECB meeting and the speech of the head of the European regulator K. Lagarde. As you know, next week there will be a meeting of the European Central Bank, at which the regulator will present a new monetary policy strategy in Europe.

Also today the United States will provide data on changes in retail sales for December and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. Moreover, you should pay attention to the NAHB January Housing Market Index.

EUR/USD. January 20, 2020 – Euro started to decline again

The euro has been declining for the third week in a row. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1080. However, experts believe that soon the European currency will be able to return to the medium-term ascending channel, which started from the beginning of December 2019.

The outflow of capital to the stock market may contribute to the growth of the currency, caused by the decline in tension in trade relations between the US and China after the conclusion of the first phase trade agreement last week.

This week, you should pay attention to the Index of sentiments in the business environment of Germany (01.21). Analysts predict a decline from 10.7 to 4.3 points, which may slightly weaken the euro. On Thursday, the ECB will unveil its decision on the interest rate and hold a press conference with the leadership of the European regulator. On Friday, market attention will be attracted by a series of publications of estimated indicators of business activity both in Germany and in the eurozone as a whole.

Today will be a calm day, as US sites are closed due to the celebration of Martin Luther King National Day.

EUR/USD. January 22, 2020 – Euro below 1.11 under the pressure of several factors

The US dollar started to rise today, receiving support after the American president's statement about the imminent start of negotiations with China on the second stage of the trade deal. In addition, Trump said that the new budget of the country is planning an amendment to reduce taxes on the middle class, which will be able to support the growth of the American economy. As a result, the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1075.

Yesterday, however, the Euro made attempts to grow after the publication of the ZEW economic expectations index in Germany, which rose to 26.7 – the highest level since 2015. In addition to pressure from the strengthening dollar, the euro also received a portion of the negativity after another statement by D. Trump. The American president said that the United States can immediately impose duties on imports of European cars and restrictive measures on goods from France, if the parties do not reach a trade agreement in the near future.

Thus, today the European currency will be trading below the level of 1.11.

USD/CAD. January 24, 2020 – Looney fell after a meeting of the Bank of Canada

Yesterday, the USD/CAD pair managed to grow to the level of 1.3170, but today the Canadian currency is showing some strengthening to 1.3130. The loony weakened after the announcement of the results of the Bank of Canada meeting. The regulator decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, noting that a decrease in the future is possible if the pace of economic recovery continues to slow down.

In addition, the Central Bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in the IV quarter to 0.3% against 1.3%, which was forecasted in October.

Additional pressure on the «Canadian» was provided by data on the consumer price index, according to which inflation in Canada in December remained unchanged at 2.2%. The situation in the oil market also does not give optimism. Oil quotes also continue to decline amid the threat of the spread of coronavirus from China around the world.

GBP/USD. January 28, 2020 – Sterling drops to 1.30

The pound continues to decline actively, having approached the level of 1.30. This week is very important for the British currency – on Thursday a meeting of the Bank of England will take place, at which the regulator can soften its monetary policy.

In addition, January 31 is the date of Brexit, when the UK will officially cease to be part of the European Union. This event could lead to increased market volatility.

Additional pressure on the sterling is provided by the general strengthening of the US dollar, which has received support, as investors tend to invest in less risky assets amid the spread of concerns about the Chinese coronavirus.

Brent/USD. January 30, 2020

Oil quotes again began to decline, moving in line with all risky assets. The current Brent quote is $57.60 per barrel. The asset again was under pressure of increased concerns about the further spread of coronavirus from China. Information that the current epidemic could cause global damage to the Chinese economy in the I quarter of 2020 also puts pressure on Brent. As a result, concerns about the demand for raw materials dominate the oil market.

Additional pressure on the oil rate was provided by data from the US Department of Energy, refuting preliminary data from the API. The agency reported an increase in crude oil reserves in the country of 3.5 million barrels, while a report from the API reflected a decrease in reserves of more than 4 million barrels. Today, oil will continue to decline under the pressure of a negative external background.

EUR/USD. February 03, 2020 – The dollar is moving towards 1.1050

Global market sentiment is again taking on a negative connotation due to news about the further spread of the Chinese virus.The number of infections and deaths continues to grow. In an attempt to limit the negative impact of recent events on the country's economy, the People’s Bank of China provided 1.2 billion yuan ($171 billion) in 7 and 14-day repurchase transactions, as well as reduced rates on these instruments. Such actions should provide some support for risky assets.

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair are falling to the level of 1.1050 after rising to almost 1.11. Today, you should pay attention to the statistics block from Europe and the USA, where countries will present data on business activity. The indicator in the eurozone should grow from 46.3 to 47.8, and in the UK – from 47.5 to 49.8 points. In the States, the index should decline from 52.4 to 51.7. At the same time, the dollar may be supported by the publication of the ISM production index – an increase from 47.2 to 48.5 points is expected.

During the day, the dollar will continue to strengthen to the level of 1.1050.