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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. December 27, 2019 – Euro is growing rapidly

The euro today confidently approached the level 1,1150. The currency began to strengthen yesterday, responding to the continued optimistic mood of market participants regarding the settlement of the US-Chinese trade conflict. The leaders of the USA and China confirmed that the first phase of the trade deal had already been concluded, and in early 2020 the parties will hold a ceremony of signing the agreement.

The US dollar received some support yesterday after the release of data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The indicator fell to 222K, which turned out to be slightly better than analysts' forecasts (224K). The previous indicator was fixed at 235K. However, this factor was not enough for the dollar to withstand the rapidly growing euro.

Moreover, amid a probable recovery in global economic growth in 2020, the demand for protective assets may decline, which may put some pressure on the US dollar. Today we will observe the recovery of the European currency from the level of 1,1100 to the area above 1,1150.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. December 30, 2019 – Euro recovered to 1.1200

The European currency continues to win back the losses of the last week, reaching the level of 1.1200. The US dollar is under pressure: on Friday, all G10 currencies and most emerging markets currencies showed growth in tandem with the dollar, and today this trend continues.

Optimism at global sites is fueled by expectations of the imminent signing of the first phase of a trade agreement between the US and China. In anticipation of the New Year, market activity is small, and the news background remains neutral, so the topic of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing will be the main factor influencing the EUR/USD pair in the near future.

The only thing that you should pay attention to is the secondary data on the American economy: in the evening hours the business activity index (PMI) in Chicago and the business activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas will be published. Experts suggest a slight increase in indicators. If the forecasts are confirmed, the dollar will receive some support and will not allow the euro to gain a foothold above the level of 1.12.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. December 31, 2019 – Euro is confidently approaching 1.1240

The euro continues to grow, breaking the level of 1.1200. Today, in anticipation of the New Year holidays, trading activity will remain low, since most of the world markets will be closed.

Support for the European currency continues to be provided by positive information on the US and China trade deal. Representatives of China reported that the leaders of two countries took a phone talk, and discussed the details of the first part of the trade agreement. It is noted, that the signing of the deal will most likely take place in the first week of January 2020.

Such a decrease in trade tension has a positive effect on the entire global economy, which, in turn, will increase the demand for risky assets and support the «eurobulls» in the near future.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Brent/USD. January 07, 2020

Brent crude on Tuesday shows a correctional decline from the level of $70 per barrel. The current quote of the asset is $68.40.

The focus of the market is still the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could turn into the open military confrontation between the US and Iran. This, in turn, may create a shortage of supply on the global oil market due to interruptions in supplies from Iran and Iraq – countries that produce more than 30% of all hydrocarbons in the Middle East region.

Iran’s response to the assassination of Iran’s military leader Qassem Suleimani at Baghdad’s airport will inevitably lead to further intensification of the military conflict, which will allow Brent crude to return to an upward trend above $70 per barrel.

Additional support for oil can be provided by data on changes in oil reserves in the United States from API and the US Department of Energy. Analysts expect a decrease in reserves of 4 million barrels.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

USD/CAD. January 08, 2020 – Canadian dollar remains at local highs

Oil continues to trade at local highs ($69 per barrel), supporting all commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar. At the same time, pressure on currencies is exerted by risk aversion amid escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. The current CAD quote is 1.3000.

It should be noted that the Canadian dollar is the least vulnerable to risk aversion, since the Canadian economy mainly has support of the US market. This fact allows looney quotes to stabilize in the area of local maximums.

In addition, a further increase in oil prices can completely neutralize the risk aversion factor, an this will allow the USD/CAD pair to continue to decline to 1.3150.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Fundamental analysis of Brent. January 09, 2020

Brent crude oil failed to stay in the region above $70, and today we see quotes decline to around $65.50 per barrel. Pressure on prices was exerted by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: despite Tehran's attacks on US military bases in Iraq, Donald Trump refrained from further retaliatory measures.

The American president said that he was against further escalation of the military conflict, noting his intention to confine himself to new economic barriers in the form of tougher sanctions against Iran.

In addition to the Middle East conflict, a report from the US Department of Energy on changes in crude oil reserves acted as a factor of pressure on oil prices. According to the latest data, oil reserves rose 1.2 million barrels, after falling for three consecutive weeks. Experts predicted a reduction in reserves of 3.5 million barrels.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 10, 2020 – The dollar remains strong at 1.11

The EUR/USD pair remains stable just below 1.1100. The ending week was rich in publications on the American labor market. On Wednesday, data on the number of jobs in the private sector from ADP came out, which reflected an increase of 202 thousand against a growth a month earlier by 124 thousand. The forecast assumed an increase of 140 thousand.

Yesterday, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week were presented: the number of Americans first applying for benefits fell to a minimum level of 5 weeks. The indicator decreased by 9 thousand – to 214 thousand.

Today, attention should be paid to the release of statistics on the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP). Experts believe that the indicator grew in December by 266 thousand after an increase of 162 thousand in November. Average hourly wages are expected to increase by 0.2% in monthly terms.

Thus, such strong statistics providing significant support to the US currency will allow the dollar to consolidate below the level of 1.11.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 13, 2020 – Dollar is under pressure from weak labor market data

The euro is showing some growth at the beginning of the new trading week. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1115. The dollar was pressured last week by the publication of weak US labor market data for December. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector last month rose only 145 thousand against the forecast of expansion by 162 thousand. A similar indicator for November was fixed at around 256 thousand.

The average hourly earnings, according to current statistics, increased in December by only 0.1% mom. A month earlier, the indicator rose 0.3% m/m, a similar increase was expected now. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.5%, as predicted.

Thus, the dollar responded with a decline in this data. During the day, we do not expect sharp price spikes; the pair will continue to fluctuate slightly in the region above 1.11.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

GBP/USD. January 14, 2020 – Pound weakens since the beginning of the year

The British currency stopped its decline at 1.2950 and managed to stabilize below the level of 1.3000. Earlier, weak data on industrial production in the UK put pressure on the sterling exchange rate. According to statistics, the volume of industrial production in the country in November fell by 1.2% on a monthly basis against the growth of 0.4% m/m in October.

Manufacturing output also showed a decline in November – by 1.7% m/m. At the same time, the volume of production in the construction sector recovered after the October fall by 2.2% m/m, showing an increase of 1.9% m/m.

British GDP data also disappointed the markets: the economy slowed down by 0.3% on a monthly basis after rising 0.1% in October. Experts note that such figures reflect the weakest growth rate of the British economic system over the past 7 years.

As a result, the pound fell from 1.33 to 1.30 in just a couple of weeks.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 15, 2020 – Euro weakly grows to 1,1150

The pair EUR/USD today is growing moderately to around 1,1150 in anticipation of the signing of the first phase trade agreement between the US and China. It is noted that although the States are still ready to halve 15% duties on Chinese goods worth $120 billion, duties on the remaining $360 billion of Chinese imports will remain at a rate of 25%.

This suggests that the parties failed to reach an agreement on the main trade issues, which could cool the optimism of investors in the future.

Today, the European currency was supported by data on the industrial production of the eurozone. The indicator grew by 0.2% in November, in contrast to the fall of -0.9% in October. Nevertheless, recent data turned out to be worse than analysts' forecasts, expecting an increase of 0.3%. Thus, the EUR/USD pair will continue to grow moderately throughout the day.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 16, 2020 – Euro faintly grows amid the results of signing a deal between the US and China

Yesterday, the euro showed moderate growth to the level of 1.1160 after signing the first-phase trade agreement between the US and China. The deal obliges China to increase purchases of American goods by $200 billion from the 2017 level, as well as to avoid manipulating the exchange rate and taking additional measures in the issue of protecting intellectual property of American technologies.

The United States, in turn, promised to reduce duties on Chinese goods in the amount of $120 billion from the current 15% to 7.5% and give up duties on the remaining Chinese imports. At the same time, 25% duties on $360 billion will remain unchanged. However, the US President noted that the issue of reducing these tariffs can be considered when discussing the second stage of the transaction. The results of the meeting did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair, although they reduced the overall tension on world sites.

Today, attention should be paid to the publication of the minutes of the ECB meeting and the speech of the head of the European regulator K. Lagarde. As you know, next week there will be a meeting of the European Central Bank, at which the regulator will present a new monetary policy strategy in Europe.

Also today the United States will provide data on changes in retail sales for December and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. Moreover, you should pay attention to the NAHB January Housing Market Index.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 17, 2020 – Euro is down to 1.11

The Euro moved lower to 1.1100 after the release of data on retail sales in the United States and the business activity index from the Philadelphia Fed. The growth of the first indicator remained at the level of 0.3% m/m, and business activity increased from 2.4 to 17.0.

Together with that, the European currency was pressured today by data on inflation in Europe. The growth rate of consumer prices in the Eurozone accelerated to 1.3%, and in all EU countries – to 1,6%.

An important event that can influence the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair next week will be the ECB meeting. If the regulator's rhetoric turns out to be tougher than at the end of last year, the Euro will receive significant support and will be able to return to the 1.1200 area.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 20, 2020 – Euro started to decline again

The euro has been declining for the third week in a row. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1080. However, experts believe that soon the European currency will be able to return to the medium-term ascending channel, which started from the beginning of December 2019.

The outflow of capital to the stock market may contribute to the growth of the currency, caused by the decline in tension in trade relations between the US and China after the conclusion of the first phase trade agreement last week.

This week, you should pay attention to the Index of sentiments in the business environment of Germany (01.21). Analysts predict a decline from 10.7 to 4.3 points, which may slightly weaken the euro. On Thursday, the ECB will unveil its decision on the interest rate and hold a press conference with the leadership of the European regulator. On Friday, market attention will be attracted by a series of publications of estimated indicators of business activity both in Germany and in the eurozone as a whole.

Today will be a calm day, as US sites are closed due to the celebration of Martin Luther King National Day.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 21, 2020 – Euro strengthens after ZEW data release

The euro started to grow again, breaking the 1.1100 mark. Today, amid a large number of reports about the spread of the new coronavirus in China, all risky assets have come under pressure.

During the day, the euro will continue its moderate strengthening, having received support after the publication of the index of economic expectations from ZEW in Germany in January. The indicator unexpectedly increased significantly – to the level of 26.7 points from 10.7. Analysts had expected the index to rise to only 15.0 points. Fresh data peaked since July 2015.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 22, 2020 – Euro below 1.11 under the pressure of several factors

The US dollar started to rise today, receiving support after the American president's statement about the imminent start of negotiations with China on the second stage of the trade deal. In addition, Trump said that the new budget of the country is planning an amendment to reduce taxes on the middle class, which will be able to support the growth of the American economy. As a result, the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1075.

Yesterday, however, the Euro made attempts to grow after the publication of the ZEW economic expectations index in Germany, which rose to 26.7 – the highest level since 2015. In addition to pressure from the strengthening dollar, the euro also received a portion of the negativity after another statement by D. Trump. The American president said that the United States can immediately impose duties on imports of European cars and restrictive measures on goods from France, if the parties do not reach a trade agreement in the near future.

Thus, today the European currency will be trading below the level of 1.11.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 23, 2020 – Euro is trading in the range of 1.1070-1.1100

Sentiments at global sites continue to deteriorate amid further reports of the spread of coronavirus in China. Chinese authorities have already closed the exit from Wuhan, which is the city-epicenter of the disease.

Thus, the euro remains below the level of 1.11. At the same time, the dollar was supported by D. Trump's reports that a plan to lower taxes on the middle-classed Americans will be prepared over the next 90 days.

Today, attention should be paid to the ECB meeting and the press conference of the head of the regulator K. Lagarde. Market participants expect that the rate will be maintained at -0.5%, and Lagarde will present the announcement of a revision of the regulator’s long-term monetary strategy. In anticipation of this event, the EUR/USD pair will trade in the range of 1.1070-1.1100.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

USD/CAD. January 24, 2020 – Looney fell after a meeting of the Bank of Canada

Yesterday, the USD/CAD pair managed to grow to the level of 1.3170, but today the Canadian currency is showing some strengthening to 1.3130. The loony weakened after the announcement of the results of the Bank of Canada meeting. The regulator decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, noting that a decrease in the future is possible if the pace of economic recovery continues to slow down.

In addition, the Central Bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in the IV quarter to 0.3% against 1.3%, which was forecasted in October.

Additional pressure on the «Canadian» was provided by data on the consumer price index, according to which inflation in Canada in December remained unchanged at 2.2%. The situation in the oil market also does not give optimism. Oil quotes also continue to decline amid the threat of the spread of coronavirus from China around the world.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 27, 2020 – Euro declines to 1.10

The sentiments on global sites remains negative due to the further spread of coronavirus in China. To date, nearly 3,000 cases have been reported in China, and 80 cases have already been fatal. As a result, the pair EUR/USD fell to the level of 1.1015. Pressure on the euro had Friday's data on business PMI in the eurozone. Despite the fact that the indicator turned out to be better than expected (47.8 vs 46.8), it still remains below 50 points, which indicates a further reduction in business activity in the EU manufacturing sector.

This week, attention should be paid to the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on Wednesday (January 29). Analysts predict that the rate will remain unchanged. At the same time, the regulator can indicate its policy on injecting dollar liquidity into the system.

If the Fed expresses its readiness to continue purchasing treasury bills, this could support risky assets and limit negative market sentiment. Today, during the day, the euro will continue to fluctuate near the level of 1.10.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

GBP/USD. January 28, 2020 – Sterling drops to 1.30

The pound continues to decline actively, having approached the level of 1.30. This week is very important for the British currency – on Thursday a meeting of the Bank of England will take place, at which the regulator can soften its monetary policy.

In addition, January 31 is the date of Brexit, when the UK will officially cease to be part of the European Union. This event could lead to increased market volatility.

Additional pressure on the sterling is provided by the general strengthening of the US dollar, which has received support, as investors tend to invest in less risky assets amid the spread of concerns about the Chinese coronavirus.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 29, 2020 – Euro remains in the area of local lows 1.10

The sentiment in global markets is gradually recovering amid a decrease in investor anxiety about the further spread of the Chinese coronavirus. Experts note that the spread of infection outside of China is extremely slow, which returns the interest to risky assets.

However, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade at the low of November nearby 1.1000. Today we should pay attention to the meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Markets expect Fed to keep rates unchanged at the level of 1,75%. At the same time, the US regulator can confirm its readiness to continue purchasing treasury bills to maintain dollar liquidity in the system. And this can support the entire block of risky assets and put some pressure on the dollar in the evening.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Brent/USD. January 30, 2020

Oil quotes again began to decline, moving in line with all risky assets. The current Brent quote is $57.60 per barrel. The asset again was under pressure of increased concerns about the further spread of coronavirus from China. Information that the current epidemic could cause global damage to the Chinese economy in the I quarter of 2020 also puts pressure on Brent. As a result, concerns about the demand for raw materials dominate the oil market.

Additional pressure on the oil rate was provided by data from the US Department of Energy, refuting preliminary data from the API. The agency reported an increase in crude oil reserves in the country of 3.5 million barrels, while a report from the API reflected a decrease in reserves of more than 4 million barrels. Today, oil will continue to decline under the pressure of a negative external background.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. January 31,2020 – Euro in the range of 1.10-1.1040

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade in the range 1,1000-1,1040, reacting to news regarding the further spread of coronavirus outside of China. Representatives of the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday that there is no need to limit travel and trade with China, which has slightly increased the demand for risky assets.

Today, attention should be paid to inflation data in the eurozone. Eurostat said in January consumer prices fell 1.0% month-on-month, and rose 1,4% year-on-year. Fresh statistics may give a slight support to the euro today.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. February 03, 2020 – The dollar is moving towards 1.1050

Global market sentiment is again taking on a negative connotation due to news about the further spread of the Chinese virus.The number of infections and deaths continues to grow. In an attempt to limit the negative impact of recent events on the country's economy, the People’s Bank of China provided 1.2 billion yuan ($171 billion) in 7 and 14-day repurchase transactions, as well as reduced rates on these instruments. Such actions should provide some support for risky assets.

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair are falling to the level of 1.1050 after rising to almost 1.11. Today, you should pay attention to the statistics block from Europe and the USA, where countries will present data on business activity. The indicator in the eurozone should grow from 46.3 to 47.8, and in the UK – from 47.5 to 49.8 points. In the States, the index should decline from 52.4 to 51.7. At the same time, the dollar may be supported by the publication of the ISM production index – an increase from 47.2 to 48.5 points is expected.

During the day, the dollar will continue to strengthen to the level of 1.1050.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

GBP/USD. February 04, 2020 – Sterling collapsed to 1.30 area

British sterling crashed into the 1.3000 area yesterday after market participants realized how difficult the period of trade negotiations between Britain and the EU would be. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in his speech said that he would rather agree with the tariffs than with the jurisdiction of the European Court, which once again heated the degree of relations between the parties.

Today, you should pay attention to data on business activity in the services sector and the construction sector in Britain. The country's construction sector is going through hard times due to Brexit, since the EU will not allow London to remain the financial capital of Europe, which significantly reduces the demand for luxury housing and offices. Nevertheless, analysts expect the indicator to rise from 44.4 to 46.2, which may support the pound.

Also, investor interest may be attracted by data on the rate of decline in producer prices: the indicator may slow down from -1.4% to -0.5%.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. February 05, 2020 – The pair is steadily declining to 1.10

The trading range of the pair was limited by the levels of 1.10-1.11. There is still a moderate appetite for risky assets on global sites, despite the emergence of new reports about the Chinese coronavirus. Yesterday, the number of cases increased by more than 3 thousand people, and the number of deaths approached 500.

The pair EUR/USD is falling on Wednesday to the level of 1.10. The dollar was supported by the comments of US economic adviser L. Kudlow, who noted that China’s trade obligations could be extended over time due to the negative consequences of the outbreak of coronavirus. You should also pay attention to data on business activity in the US services sector in the evening. It is expected that the ISM index in the non-manufacturing sector will remain at a comfortable level near the mark of 55. These statistics will allow the dollar to come close to the level of 1.10.

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