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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR has shown moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, again approaching its highs since early March, updated on July 15. EUR ended last week's trading with moderate growth, receiving support from weak USD. At the end of the week, USD was under pressure from disappointing consumer confidence data. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July fell from 78.1 to 73.2 points, while analysts had expected growth to 79 points. Today, European investors are focused on the publication of data on Producer Price Index from Germany for June. Also, German Bundesbank Monthly Report is expected during the day.

GBP/USD

GBP declines against USD during today's morning trading, preparing to test 1.2500 for a breakdown again. Investors are selling GBP amid the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics from the UK and uncertain prospects. Last week, the UK reported on the growth rate of GDP, which in May was significantly worse than market expectations. In this regard, analysts believe that the previously adopted measures to support the country's economy may not be enough and soon the Bank of England will be forced to return to the issue of new incentives. Investors are also concerned about the prospect of a trade agreement between the UK and the EU, which should be signed before the end of the year. Due to the pandemic, no notable progress on the issue was achieved, despite a series of very optimistic statements by officials.

NZD/USD

NZD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, located near the opening level of 0.6550. Investors expect new drivers to appear on the market to form trends for the instrument, but so far NZD has not been able to demonstrate growth even against the backdrop of strong macroeconomic signals. Last Friday, Business NZ PMI in June rose sharply from 39.7 to 56.3 points against the forecast of a decrease to 35.6 points. Today, attention is drawn to Business NZ Performance of Services Index. In June, the indicator increased from 37.2 to 54.1 points, which also turned out to be better than the market's average expectations. In turn, USD remains under pressure from alarming statistics on the incidence of coronavirus and uncertain prospects around the upcoming US presidential elections scheduled for autumn.

USD/JPY

USD shows moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian trading. The instrument adds more than 0.20% and is testing the level of 107.30 for a breakout. Pressure on JPY on Monday is exerted by weak statistics on exports. In June, exports from Japan decreased by 26.2% YoY after a decrease of 28.3% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 24.9% YoY. Imports for the same period fell by 14.4% YoY, which turned out to be better than forecasts of –16.8% YoY and previous dynamics at the level of –26.2% YoY. The trade balance in June showed a deficit of 268.8B yen, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of –35.8B yen. In May, the balance showed a deficit of –833.5B yen.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are stable at the beginning of the new week and are trying to consolidate above 1800.00. The instrument recovered noticeably in trading last Friday, receiving support from the continuing risk aversion of investors. The United States again reported a record increase in new cases of coronavirus infection, which raises doubts about the previously announced pace of the American economic recovery. The country has not announced the return of large-scale quarantine measures, but some states are forced to lock down, which could lead to a sharp deterioration in the labor market. An additional source of market uncertainty is the relationship between the United States and China. The parties continue to exchange mutual sanctions, and at the end of last week it became known that Donald Trump's administration is considering the possibility of banning persons associated with the activities of the Chinese Communist Party from entering the United States.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is falling against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs of March 10, updated at the beginning of this trading week. Uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Germany put some pressure on EUR yesterday. Producer Price Index in Germany in June showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis, while analysts had expected growth in manufacturing inflation by 0.2% MoM. On an annualized basis, the indicator decreased by 1.8% YoY after falling by 2.2% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of –1.5% YoY. In turn, USD remains under pressure amid decisions on new measures to support the US economy, which are due later this week.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating near new local highs and the level of 1.2650, which were renewed thanks to the activity of the "bulls" the day before. A confident uptrend on the instrument was facilitated by technical factors, as well as by the weakness of USD. GBP, in turn, looks good enough against the background of the latest macroeconomic statistics, as well as moderate optimism about Brexit and the accompanying trade agreement between the UK and the EU. Today British investors are awaiting the publication of information on the placement of 30-year government bonds.

AUD/USD

AUD is showing moderate growth during today's morning trading session, trying to consolidate above the important resistance at 0.7000. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the minutes of the RBA meeting, as well as the speech of the Governor of the regulator Philip Lowe. The bank Governor began his speech with a description of a rather difficult situation in the labor market, which was sharply aggravated against the backdrop of the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. Toward the end of his speech, Lowe tried to cheer up investors and noted that Australia coped with the challenges of the new time much better than many countries and remained open to investment and innovation.

USD/JPY

USD has shown moderate gains against JPY during today's Asian session, aiming to consolidate above 107.30. A number of technical factors contribute to the growth of the instrument, as well as restrained optimism about the coronavirus vaccine under development. Meanwhile, JPY gets moderate support from macroeconomic publications from Japan on Tuesday. The National Consumer Price Index in June showed an increase of 0.1% YoY, maintaining the dynamics of the previous month. Analysts had expected the indicator to slow down to zero. National CPI excluding Food and Energy increased by 0.4% YoY over the same period, which also turned out to be slightly better than analysts' expectations of +0.3% YoY.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are trading flat during today's Asian session, close to multi-year highs, which are constantly updated amid uncertain market conditions. Traders are seriously concerned about the continuing rise in the global incidence of coronavirus. In addition, investors expect the adoption of new measures stimulating economy by the world's leading regulators. In particular, the US government is expected to agree on a new package of assistance to the American economy this week, and the EU, meanwhile, managed to agree on the creation of a recovery fund in the amount of EUR 750B.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is trading with an uptrend against USD during today's Asian session, hitting record highs since January 2019. Until now, EUR has shown three "bullish" trading sessions, which have led the instrument to new record highs. The growth of optimism was triggered by the expectations of investors regarding the creation of a fund to help the European economy in the amount of EUR 750 billion. After lengthy discussions, the long-awaited plan was approved by the European leaders, and the market was even more inspired, especially given the high risks of a further increase in the incidence of COVID-19. Today, investors are focused on the statistics on the dynamics of Existing Home Sales in the United States. Interesting data from Europe will appear only towards the end of the week. On Friday, consolidated statistics on business activity in the eurozone from Markit for July is expected to be released.

GBP/USD

GBP shows the flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's morning session. The instrument is retreating from its monthly highs, updated the day before, without the support of the previous drivers. Approval of the European economic support program in the amount of EUR 750 billion does not provide almost any support to GBP. In turn, the "bullish" activity on the instrument has noticeably decreased after the information that the UK and the EU are unlikely to have time to agree on a trade agreement before the end of the summer appeared at the market. Analysts believe that the process could drag on until the end of the year, when the Brexit transition deadline expires. Today investors do not expect interesting drivers from the UK to appear, and therefore flat dynamics may continue. On Thursday, investors await the publication of a report from the Confederation of British Industrialists on the dynamics of industrial orders for July. In addition, on this day, the representative of the Bank of England Jonathan Haskel will speak.

NZD/USD

NZD remains upward versus USD during today's Asian session. The instrument adds about 0.13% and is about to test the level of 0.6650 for a breakout. Some support for NZD is coming from the excitement in the market following the long-awaited approval of EUR 750 billion European economic recovery fund. In addition, the previous drivers remain in effect. USD is under noticeable pressure amid the deteriorating situation with the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus in the United States. Also, the US authorities intend to obtain approval of a new package of economic stimuli; however, given the disagreements prevailing between the chambers of Congress, one cannot expect a quick solution. The macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand published yesterday exerted moderate pressure on NZD. New Zealand's Global Dairy Trade Price Index declined by 0.7% MoM after rising by 8.3% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth of 3.9% MoM.

USD/JPY

USD is strengthening against JPY during today's Asian trading, correcting after a strong decline the day before. The "bearish" dynamics on Tuesday was facilitated by good statistics on consumer inflation in Japan, as well as the active growth of EUR on the market in response to the approval of the creation of the European economic recovery fund in the amount of EUR 750 billion. Today, American investors expect the publication of data on the dynamics of Existing Home Sales. After extremely disappointing May data, analysts expect strong sales growth (more than 20%) in June, which may provide significant support to USD. Markets in Japan are closed today due to a national holiday.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are showing strong growth during today's Asian session, once again updating multi-year highs. This time, the instrument managed to rise above the level of 1865.00; however, gold has not yet been able to consolidate at new highs. A weak USD supports the instrument. Investors expect new stimulus measures from the US government, and are also worried when analyzing the statistics on the incidence of coronavirus in the world. Some pressure on the instrument at the beginning of the week is exerted by the growth on stock exchanges, provoked by the approval of the idea of creating a fund for the recovery of the European economy in the amount of EUR 750 billion.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: EUR maintains strong growth

Current trend

EUR is trading flat against USD today, consolidating after another “bullish” surge the day before, which led to the renewal of record highs since October 2018. EUR is supported by the fact that a European economic recovery fund worth EUR 750 billion has been approved. A breakthrough on this issue looks especially attractive against the backdrop of difficult negotiations on the introduction of new economic incentives in the USA. No one expected that Democrats and Republicans would be able to agree quickly, but the problem is that only a little more than a week remains until the end of the current plan to support the American economy.

Today European investors are focused on the speech of the Vice President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, as well as the publication of the July data on the dynamics of the level of consumer confidence in the eurozone.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding, but it fails to catch the development of “bullish” trend at the moment. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its highs, reversed into the horizontal plane indicating overbought EUR in the ultra-short term.

Existing long positions should be kept in the short and/or ultra-short term until the signals from technical indicators clear up.

Resistance levels: 1.1600, 1.1657, 1.1700.

Support levels: 1.1546, 1.1500, 1.1460, 1.1422.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, trading near record highs updated the day before. EUR ends the week with strong gains, boosted by the decision of European leaders to create a EUR 750 billion economic recovery fund. Meanwhile, USD remains under pressure amid growing statistics on the incidence of coronavirus, and also reacts negatively to difficulties in discussing a new aid package for the US economy in the Senate. Today, European investors are focused on business activity statistics from Markit in the euro area. It is expected that the main indicators will be able to consolidate above the psychological level of 50 points, which will additionally support EUR.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading against USD in both directions during today's Asian session, updating local highs since June 10. Further growth of the instrument is limited by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In addition, GBP is under pressure from uncertain prospects regarding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the UK and the EU. At the same time, the weakness of USD allows the "bulls" to feel relatively free. The report on jobless claims released in the US yesterday again disappointed investors, strengthening the idea of the urgent need for a new stage of stimulating the American economy. Today, investors are focused on the statistics on Retail Sales in the UK for June. Also during the day, the data on the level of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector from Markit for July will be released.

AUD/USD

AUD has shown slight growth against USD during this morning session, once again trying to consolidate above 0.7100. The instrument is supported moderately by the Australian business activity statistics from Commonwealth Bank. Services PMI rose sharply from 53 to 58.5 points in July, which was significantly better than market expectations of 53.2 points. Manufacturing PMI for the same period increased from 51.2 to 53.4 points, but did not reach the expected value of 53.6 points. Composite PMI in July rose from 52.7 to 57.9 points. After the American trading session opens, the attention of investors will shift to the data on business activity from the US, where analysts also expect optimistic results.

USD/JPY

USD is actively falling against JPY during today's Asian session. The instrument lost about 0.40%, testing the level of 106.40 for a breakdown. Investors are actively selling USD again after the publication of disappointing labor market statistics on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 17 increased from +1.307M to +1.416M, which was worse than market expectations of 1.300M. Meanwhile, Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending July 10 slowed from +17.304M to +16.197M, while the forecast did not imply a decrease in the indicator below 17M.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are consolidating during today's trading, slightly retreating from record highs, once again updated the day before. The instrument is supported by a further increase in tensions between the United States and China, which threatens to cancel out all the success achieved by the countries earlier. In addition, the demand for gold remains high amid active discussions on new stimulus measures in the US economy. Yesterday's report on jobless claims dynamics in the US only strengthened the belief in the need for such measures, but investors fear that the political forces in the Senate will not be able to agree quickly.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is actively rising against USD during today's Asian session, hitting record highs since September 2018. The instrument is gaining about 0.55% and is trying to consolidate above the next resistance at 1.1700. EUR is supported by strong macroeconomic statistics on business activity from the eurozone countries, published last Friday. German Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 45.2 to 50 points, which was better than expectations. Services PMI in Germany jumped from 47.3 to 56.7 points against the forecast of growth only to 50.5 points. Composite PMI rose from 47 to 55.5 points in July, also beating its forecasts of 50.3 points. In the euro area, the Composite PMI consolidated above the 50-point mark, indicating a gradual recovery in the European economy after the crisis. At the beginning of the week, the European investors are focused on the report on business climate in Germany from IFO. Also, German Bundesbank Monthly Report is expected during the day.

GBP/USD

GBP strengthens against USD during today's morning trading, updating its highs since March 11. "Bullish" activity for the instrument is facilitated by the weak positions of USD. In turn, GBP was supported by the upbeat macroeconomic statistics from Great Britain released last Friday. Retail Sales in June grew by 13.9% MoM after an increase of 12.3% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a slowdown in the index to 8% MoM. Markit Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 50.1 to 53.6 points, exceeding market forecasts of 52 points. Markit Services PMI rose from 47.1 to 56.6 points, which also turned out to be better than expectations of 51.1 points.

AUD/USD

AUD is recovering against USD during this morning session, again approaching record highs of July 22. The growth of the instrument proceeds against the background of a large-scale decline in USD at the beginning of the new week, practically across the entire spectrum of the market. In turn, AUD is supported by a noticeable increase in demand for it as a carry-trading currency, as well as by good macroeconomic statistics on business activity for July published on Friday. Commonwealth Bank Services PMI rose from 53.1 to 58.5 points, beating market expectations at 53.2 points. A similar index in the manufacturing sector rose from 51.2 to 53.4 points, which fell slightly short of the expected values of 53.6 points. Today, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of durable goods orders in June. Interesting data from Australia will appear only on Wednesday, when the quarterly statistics on consumer inflation is released.

USD/JPY

USD is steadily declining against JPY during today's Asian trading, continuing to develop a strong "bearish" momentum that formed at the end of the last trading week. The instrument loses about 0.50% and is trying to consolidate below 105.50. USD remains under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics and growing fears about the high level of uncertainty in the market. Friday's US data reflected a rise in the Markit Services PMI in July from 47.9 to 49.6 points, while the forecast was for an increase to 51 points. Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 49.8 to 51.3 points, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of 51.5 points. Today, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of durable goods orders in June. Analysts do not expect strong data to emerge, so USD may come under pressure again.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are actively growing during today's Asian session, renewing their record highs. The psychological level of 1900.00 was reached at the end of last week, but on Monday the instrument demonstrates the most active dynamics over the past few months. Gold is still supported by a high level of market uncertainty. The alarming situation with the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus in the United States does not allow USD to start correction, while the worsening geopolitical risks between the USA and China is becoming a new driver for the growth of the instrument.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR declines against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from record highs updated the day before. At the beginning of the week, the instrument showed the strongest growth in the past few months, taking advantage of the weakness of USD, which is in anxious anticipation of the results of the Fed's meeting, which will be held on July 28 and 29. In addition, investors fear the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic in the country, which could disrupt the government's plans for the pace of recovery of the national economy. In turn, yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from Germany supported EUR. German IFO Business Climate Index rose from 86.3 to 90.5 points in July, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 89.3 points.  IFO Current Assessment for the same period rose from 81.3 to 84.5 points, while the forecast assumed an increase in the indicator to 85 points.  IFO Expectations in July rose sharply from 91.6 to 97 points, exceeding forecasts of 93.7 points.

GBP/USD

GBP is correcting against USD during today's morning trading, retreating from the March highs, updated the day before. Technical factors contribute to the decline in the instrument, as USD remains strongly oversold. In addition, investors are fixing their profits ahead of the publication of the results of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday and the release of macroeconomic statistics from the US and Europe on Thursday. There will be not much UK data this week, so investors are likely to focus on US statistics. The focus will remain only on the negotiations between the UK and the EU. Earlier it was reported that the EU doubts the possibility of concluding a free trade agreement with the UK this year. London is somewhat more optimistic, but it is worth noting that the negotiation process is rather complicated.

NZD/USD

NZD declines against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from annual highs updated at the opening. The instrument loses about 0.40%, testing the level of 0.6650 for a breakdown. The emergence of corrective dynamics is facilitated by the growth of the oversold USD; however, fundamental factors are still playing against the American currency. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics on Durable Goods Orders in the United States turned out to be quite good, but failed to provoke a noticeable rise in USD. The volume of orders in June slowed down from +15.1% to +7.3%, which came out close to the market forecasts at +7.2%. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft rose by 3.3% in June, after increasing by 1.6% last month. Investors expected an increase of 2.3%.

USD/JPY

USD is showing corrective growth against JPY during today's morning session, retreating from the local lows, updated at the beginning of the week. Technical factors contribute to the growth of USD, while investors are waiting for the publication of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. In addition, the US is to publish Q2 2020 annual GDP statistics on Thursday. The US economy is expected to show a record 34% YoY decline after contracting by 5% in Q1. The statistics from Japan published on Monday also contribute to the development of the uptrend for the instrument. Coincident Index in May fell from 80.1 to 73.4 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 74.6 points. Leading Economic Index for the same period, on the contrary, rose from 77.7 to 78.4 points, but also turned out to be weaker than its forecasts of 79.3 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are showing ambiguous dynamics today, staying in the area of record highs, updated the day before. It should be noted that the instrument showed a sharp rise at the opening of today's session; however, the "bulls" retreated very quickly under the pressure of the correcting USD. The escalating conflict between the United States and China continues to provide strong support for gold. The parties continue to exchange mutual sanctions, which practically put an end to all previously reached trade agreements. In addition, the US economy remains in dire straits amid the raging COVID-19 epidemic in the country. This week, the US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting and important macroeconomic indicators for the US economy will be released as well.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is again showing gains against USD during today's Asian session, returning to previous record highs, updated at the end of last week. Market activity remains moderate as investors are in no rush ahead of the publication of minutes from the US Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on Wednesday. Analysts do not expect any significant changes in the vector of monetary policy; however, the comments of officials are more important today than ever. There is a possibility that the Fed representatives will speak out on adjusting the target levels for inflation, given the alarming situation in the economy, as well as touch on the prospects for programs to support the economy, which are now being actively discussed in the Senate. Interesting statistics from Europe will appear only on Thursday, when Germany will report on the dynamics of GDP for Q2 2020, as well as publish the July statistics on unemployment and consumer inflation.

GBP/USD

GBP is showing ambiguous trading during today's morning session, close to the highs updated the day before. GBP retains a fairly confident "bullish" trend; however investors prefer to wait for the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting. During the day, a block of macroeconomic statistics will be released in the UK, which, however, is unlikely to have a noticeable impact on the instrument's dynamics. One way or another, analysts expect the publication of the number of Mortgage Approvals in June (their number should increase by 33.9K). In addition, Consumer Credit data will be presented, as well as Net Lending to Individuals, which in May showed a decrease of 3.4B pounds.

AUD/USD

AUD has seen marginally gains against USD during today's Asian session, trading near record highs revised a week ago. Buying activity on the instrument is constrained by expectations of the publication of the minutes of the two-day Fed meeting, which, as analysts hope, will clarify the prospects for monetary policy in the near future. The macroeconomic statistics released in Australia today puts additional pressure on the instrument. Trimmed Mean CPI in Q2 2020 decreased by 0.1% QoQ after growing by 0.5% QoQ over the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.1% QoQ. At the same time, Consumer Price Index in Q2 2020 collapsed by 1.9% QoQ after rising by 0.3% QoQ earlier. Analysts expected a decrease of 2% QoQ.

USD/JPY

USD shows flat dynamics of trading during today's morning session, remaining near the local lows since mid-March, updated the day before. USD remains under significant pressure amid growing uncertainty associated with increased political risks, as well as the further spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in the country. Today, the activity of "bears" is somewhat reduced, which is associated with the expectation of the publication of the Fed meeting minutes. Analysts do not expect changes in the key interest rate, but they are eager to hear the comments of officials, since at present the country is clearly not coping with the number of economic challenges it faces. Interesting statistics from Japan will appear only on Thursday, when June data on the dynamics of Retail Sales and the volume of investments in the Japanese economy over the past few weeks are released.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are consolidating during today's Asian trading, retreating from record highs, updated the day before. The emergence of corrective dynamics from historical highs is associated with the expectation of the publication of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. In addition, technical factors also contribute to the development of the "bearish" trend, as the instrument has been actively increasing for eight trading sessions in a row. In turn, gold is still feeling significant support in the market. The increasing geopolitical risks, the unstable state of the American economy, as well as high uncertainty about the COVID-19 epidemic are pushing the asset to become a new reserve currency.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: EUR is corrected

Current trend

EUR is showing flat dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, trading near record highs updated the day before. The positions of USD came under pressure again yesterday after the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, and at the follow-up press conference, the Chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, promised to continue using the full range of available instruments to support the national economy. In his speech, Powell also mentioned the volatile labor market, noting that many Americans have yet to lose their jobs.

European investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from Germany and the eurozone today. Among other things, analysts expect the release of July data on the labor market and the dynamics of consumer inflation in Germany. In addition, data on German GDP for Q2 2020 will be published.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range expands, freeing a path to new record highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its highs, is trying to reverse downwards, signaling in favor of the development of corrective decline in the ultra-short term.

The "bearish" trend is likely to appear at the end of the trading week.

Resistance levels: 1.1804, 1.1850, 1.1900.
Support levels: 1.1723, 1.1657, 1.1600, 1.1546.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

Gold prices are showing moderate gains again in trading in today's Asian session, recovering from the correctional decline the day before. On Thursday, the instrument retreated from its record highs and interrupted the historic rally to the level of 2000.00 amid technical factors and corrective sentiment on the US stock markets. In turn, with the opening of the American trading session on Thursday, the pressure on USD began to increase after the publication of disappointing statistics on the annual dynamics of US GDP for Q2 2020. Political risks also intensified after Donald Trump posted a proposal on his Twitter to postpone the presidential elections in the USA due to the difficult epidemiological situation in the country.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is widening from above, clearing the way for the "bulls" to new all-time highs and the target level of 2000.00. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). For a long time now, Stochastic has been near its highs, trying to reverse into a downward plane. As before, the indicator points at the greatly overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

It is necessary to wait for clarification of the situation in the market to open new positions. Some of the long positions should be kept for some time.

Resistance levels: 1980.84, 2000.00.

Support levels: 1955.00, 1935.00, 1910.00, 1895.06.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR shows flat dynamics of trading during today's Asian session, consolidating after the corrective decline in the instrument at the end of last week. On Friday, after updating record highs since May 2018, EUR fell sharply, which was mainly due to technical factors of taking long profits ahead of the weekend. Additional pressure on EUR positions was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of GDP in the euro zone for Q2 2020. In quarterly terms, GDP showed a 12.1% QoQ decline after a 3.6% QoQ contraction in the prior period. The indicator came out close to its forecasts at –12% QoQ. In annual terms, the decline in GDP in the euro area amounted to 15% YoY, which turned out to be slightly worse than analysts' expectations at the level of –14.5% YoY. In turn, data on consumer inflation in the euro area for July contributed to the strengthening of EUR. Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% YoY, accelerating from the previous value of 0.3% YoY. Experts expected a slowdown to 0.2% YoY.

GBP/USD

GBP demonstrates moderate gains against USD again during today's morning session, returning to the local highs, updated at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.10% and is testing the level of 1.3100 for a breakout. The "bullish" activity for the instrument is supported by the weakness of USD, while the fundamental picture for GBP remains unchanged. Investors remain concerned about the uncertainty surrounding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the EU and the UK before the transition deadline at the end of the year. In addition, the UK is showing alarming statistics on the incidence of coronavirus, which puts plans to lift quarantine restrictions in the country into question. At the end of last week, Prime Minister Boris Johnson noted that further lifting of restrictions will inevitably lead to an increase of incidence. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on business activity in the US and UK Manufacturing sector for July.

AUD/USD

AUD is marginally strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a strong decline late last week as the instrument retreated from its record highs since February 2019. A certain support for AUD is provided by the macroeconomic statistics from Australia, published today. AiG Manufacturing index went up from 51.5 to 53.5 points in July. In the manufacturing sector, according to the Commonwealth Bank, activity rose from 53.4 to 54 points, better than the neutral forecasts. Inflation data from TD Securities in July showed an increase of 0.9% MoM and 1.3% YoY, which turned out to be significantly better than the data for the previous period: +0.6% MoM and +0.7% YoY. Chinese statistics also provided additional support to the instrument. Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 to 52.8 in July, beating market forecasts of 51.3.

USD/JPY

USD is showing ambiguous trading dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, trying to develop corrective growth, the momentum for which was formed at the end of last week. Strengthening of USD positions is associated with technical factors, while there are still not many fundamental reasons for USD growth. Friday's statistics from the US again turned out to be heterogeneous, and the greatest support for USD was provided only by the Chicago PMI, which in July rose sharply from 36.6 to 51.9 points, which turned out to be better than expected by 43.9 points. JPY finds some support among macroeconomic publications from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 42.6 to 45.2 points with a neutral forecast. At the same time, the data also reflected the fall of the Japanese economy by 0.6% QoQ and 2.2% YoY in Q2 2020, which, however, did not come as a surprise.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are showing ambiguous dynamics during today's morning session, trading near record highs and a psychological level of 2000.00. The demand for the asset remains high against the background of continuing uncertainty in the market, as well as the progressive weakness of USD. The risks associated with the coronavirus pandemic are not going away and are likely to remain relevant until a resistant vaccine emerges and a widespread vaccination campaign begins. There are also geopolitical tensions on the market associated with the aggravation of relations between the United States and China. The parties continue to exchange mutual sanctions complicating the process of global economic recovery. Domestic political situation in the United States should be taken into account as well. In November, the US presidential election is to take place, which will have to be held in an environment of increased epidemiological risks.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

WTI Crude Oil: oil prices show flat dynamics

Current trend

WTI crude oil prices are trading flat after a moderate increase at the beginning of the week. The growth of quotations on Monday was caused by rather positive statistics on the corresponding sectors of the economy in Europe and Asia Pacific region. In turn, the further rising of the instrument was restrained by fears of an increase in the incidence of COVID-19, as well as growing supply of oil at the market. Since August, the volume of oil production cuts by OPEC+ members has been decreasing from the previously determined 9.7M barrels per day to the current 7.7M barrels.

Today, investors are focused on the publication of the API report on oil reserves for the week ending July 31. The previous report showed a sharp decline of 6.829M barrels.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart have been showing lateral trend for a long time. The price range almost does not change; however, it is quite consistent with the observed dynamics in the market. The MACD indicator is going down, maintaining a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, on the other hand, is showing moderate growth in response to the emergence of “bullish” trend on Monday.

To open new trading positions, one should wait until the signals from technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 41.00, 41.41, 42.00, 42.31.
Support levels: 40.00, 39.15, 38.47, 38.00.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil prices are trading within a narrow range around $44 per barrel.

Quotes have been at the same levels for over a month, ignoring external events. They were not affected by the data on the next significant reduction in energy reserves from the API Institute. According to the report, the figure fell by –8.857M against an expected decrease of –3.300M. Today, EIA will provide its statistics, and its forecast is –3.001M.

In the main arbitrage position of the spread between Brent Crude Oil and WTI Crude Oil, the corridor has been a little more than $3 for a long time, which indicates a formed position. Its last change was observed in early June when quotes grew. It is not known when this position will be implemented but according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the number of pure speculative positions on the asset began to fall, reaching 532.6K from 548.9K in the previous week. This is a fairly high rate of decline but not sufficient for asset price fluctuations.

Support and resistance

Quotes move within a narrow range of 5%. Alligator indicators’ EMA fluctuation range narrows and the fast EMAs crossed. AO oscillator’s histogram is above the zero line but has almost approached the transition level. Most of the markers indicate a possible beginning of a downward correction.

Resistance levels: 45.20, 51.60.
Support levels: 39.00, 31.20.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

XAG/USD: prices update record highs

Current trend

Silver prices are actively climbing during today's morning trading, updating record highs since April 2013 and trying to consolidate above the level of 27.00. A new rally for the instrument was due to the weak macroeconomic publications from ADP on employment in the US, which could lead to a slowdown in the recovery of the American economy.

In turn, some support for USD is provided by positive expectations regarding the formation of a new package of measures to support the US economy in Congress by the end of this week. A vote for the introduction of new stimulus measures may take place as early as next week. Another support factor for USD is noticeable improvement in the situation with the dynamics of the coronavirus incidence in the USA, as well as a number of promising forecasts for the development of a vaccine against COVID-19 in the near future.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding; however, it fails to catch the development of "bullish" sentiments. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic retains steady upward direction, but is located near its highs, which indicates overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Existing long positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.
Resistance levels: 28.00, 28.70.

Support levels: 27.00, 26.17, 24.92, 24.00.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

XAU/USD: gold rises

Current trend

Gold quotes are actively growing, setting a new record around $2074 per ounce during yesterday's trading session.

The positive dynamics of the precious metals market attracts more and more new investors who continue to push quotes up. The explosive growth was catalyzed by the fall of the US dollar: traders began to convert assets into gold and oil, and the volumes were distributed in approximately equal shares. The weakening of the US currency has slowed down recently, while the growth of gold continues: investments in oil have not been profitable for more than a month, and investors began to look for a more promising shelter, thereby provoking a flow of cash liquidity into gold from oil.

The macroeconomic indicators of China, the main importer of gold, also speak of the panic nature of growth. The volume of imports of physical gold in July fell to –1.4%, therefore, the growth is formed by the purchase of exchange contracts, which will only grow.

Support and resistance

After reaching the global maximum at 2074.0, the price began to correct downward. Technical indicators keep a global buy signal. The range of fluctuations of the EMA indicator Alligator expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms upward bars.

Resistance levels: 2075.0, 2100.0.
Support levels: 2040.0, 1945.0.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

GBP/USD: the pound is consolidating

Current trend

GBP is showing insignificant growth against USD during today's Asian session. After a noticeable correctional decline on August 7, the "bulls" are trying to recover again, although there are not many reasons for the return of the uptrend at the beginning of the week. The short-term strengthening of USD on Friday was facilitated by the publication of the US labor market report for July. The data turned out to be noticeably better than expectations, but they still could not reverse the global trend towards USD depreciation.

In turn, GBP was moderately supported on Friday by the news of the UK's readiness to conclude a trade agreement with Japan by the end of August. Investors are obviously more interested in a trade deal with the EU, but the establishment of other trade ties in one way or another strengthens the position of the UK after Brexit.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show active growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD reversed into a descending plane, having formed a new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic retains a steady downtrend and is currently at the center of its area.

The development of a full-fledged correctional decline is possible in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3200, 1.3300.
Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2900, 1.2812, 1.2766.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is showing insignificant growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after falling the day before. USD was supported on Monday by decrees signed by President Donald Trump last weekend. Among other things, Trump has temporarily extended the payment of increased unemployment benefits to American citizens while lawmakers in Congress fail to agree on a new stimulus package. At the same time, the new benefit was revised downward from USD 600 to USD 400, and a quarter of the amount will have to be covered from the state budgets. European investors are awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics on economic sentiment from ZEW today. The indicators are predicted to show a slight increase in August; however, noticeable growth of EUR because of these data is unlikely.

GBP/USD

GBP shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed yesterday. The instrument is still trying to win back the losses of last Friday; however, the buying activity for GBP remains at a rather low level, as investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. Today traders are focused on the data on the UK labor market for June and July. Claimant Count in July rose sharply by 94.4K after falling by 28.1K last month. ILO Unemployment Rate remained at the level of 3.9% (3M) with the forecast of growth to 4.2% (3M).

NZD/USD

NZD is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a sharp decline at the end of last trading week, when the instrument responded to the publication of the US labor market report for July. Macroeconomic statistics from China provide some support to the instrument, while the continuing geopolitical tensions between the USA and China, as well as the uncertain situation around the COVID-19 pandemic contribute to the development of multidirectional dynamics. Macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand released tonight did not have a noticeable effect on the instrument. Electronic Card Retail Sales in July decreased from 15.6% MoM to 1.1% MoM, which turned out to be significantly worse than the expected 13.8% MoM. At the same time, in annual terms, the indicator increased from 8% YoY to 11.4% YoY. New Zealand investors are focused on the RBNZ meeting on interest rates, which will take place on Wednesday. Analysts do not expect changes in the vector of monetary policy at the moment.

USD/JPY

USD has shown moderate gains against JPY during this morning session, trying to consolidate above 106.00 again. USD is supported by the initiatives of Donald Trump, who signed several decrees aimed at stimulating the economy, without waiting for the resolution of all controversial issues in the American Congress. According to the signed order, the government will resume the payment of increased unemployment benefits of USD 400, which will be partially funded from the budget of specific states. The move, according to analysts, will not only help ease the debt burden of American citizens, but will also allow Trump to increase his popularity among voters ahead of the presidential elections this fall.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are declining during today's Asian trading session, continuing the development of the corrective impulse that formed at the end of the last trading week, when the instrument retreated from its record highs. Moderate growth of USD in response to the signing by Donald Trump of a number of decrees, in particular, on the resumption of the payment of increased unemployment benefits, contributed to the maintenance of the "bearish" dynamics on the instrument yesterday. In turn, the further escalation of tensions between the USA and China contributed to the strengthening of gold, which remains in high demand as a safe-haven asset.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR declines against USD during today's Asian session, updating local lows of August 3. The instrument loses about 0.2%, preparing to test the level of 1.1700 for a breakdown. USD was again supported by President Donald Trump, who announced the preparation of a bill to reduce the capital gains tax. However, closer to the end of the afternoon session, the market still returned to negative dynamics. The euro, in turn, received support after the publication of the results of the ZEW study. ZEW Economic Sentiment in the euro area in August rose from 59.6 to 64 points, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations of 59.9 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany for the same period soared from 59.3 to 71.5 points, while forecasts assumed its decline to 58 points.

GBP/USD

GBP declines against USD in today's Asian session, testing the level of 1.3000 for a breakdown. British investors remain focused on Tuesday's publications from the UK, as well as the data on US producer inflation for July. Claimant Count Change in the UK in July showed a record increase of 94.4K, while in June applications showed negative dynamics at the level of –28.1K. Experts expected the growth by 10K only. Claimant Count Rate fell by 2.2% in July after rising by 7.3% a month earlier. At the same time, the ILO Unemployment Rate in June (for 3 months) remained at the level of 3.9%, despite the projected growth to 4.2%.

AUD/USD

AUD shows negative dynamics paired with USD at trading on Wednesday, developing a corrective impulse formed at the end of the last trading week. The decline in the instrument proceeds against the background of some strengthening of USD, which reacts to the actions of Donald Trump. Earlier, the US president extended the payment of an increased unemployment benefit as a temporary support measure, as Democrats and Republicans have so far failed to reach consensus on negotiations on a new economic aid package. The day before, Trump announced work on a bill that provides for a reduction in the capital gains tax, which also triggered the emergence of a short-term impulse for growth. The pressure on AUD on Wednesday is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac Consumer Confidence in August showed a sharp decline of 9.5% after falling by 6.1% in the previous month. Wage Price Index in Q2 2020 slowed down from +0.5% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ, which was worse than market expectations at +0.3% QoQ.

USD/JPY

USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, updating the local highs of July 24. The day before, the instrument rose sharply in response to a number of optimistic news from the US. In particular, investors welcomed Donald Trump's new initiative to reduce some of the taxes for businesses, and also took a lead from the stabilization of the dynamics of the incidence of COVID-19 in the USA. USD was also supported by the data on producer inflation from the USA. Producer Price Index excluding Food & Energy in July increased by 0.5% MoM and 0.3% YoY, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations of 0.1% MoM and 0.0% YoY. Today American investors await the publication of the July statistics on consumer inflation, as well as the release of Monthly Budget Statement in the USA.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are showing a steady decline, retreating from record highs. The day before, the instrument fell by more than 3.5% in response to the emergence of new legislative initiatives from US President Donald Trump, who proposed to lower the capital gains tax. In addition, expectations of progress in the discussion of a new economic aid package in the US Congress contributed to the decline in the value of the asset. Finally, the markets have widely discussed the statement of President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, who announced the registration of the world's first vaccine against COVID-19, called Sputnik V. It is expected that the mass production of the new vaccine may begin in September, but the drug will enter civilian circulation only closer to the end of all testing stages, that is, in January 2021.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

NZD/USD: the pair corrects downward

Current trend

The NZD/USD pair corrects downwards against the global growth of the US dollar, trading near the level of 0.6568.

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, the regulator expanded the large-scale asset purchase program (LSAP) to 100 billion New Zealand dollars in order to further reduce retail interest rates to achieve the target volume. The bank noted that New Zealand has contained the local spread of COVID-19 in recent months, easing social constraints and revitalizing economic activity, as seen in earlier figures.

There was not much macroeconomic data from the US this week, and it is worth highlighting only yesterday's data on the Core Consumer Price Index, which reached 0.6% for July against the background of the forecast of 0.2%. The situation inside the country continues to be tense, which does not allow the dollar to finally consolidate in an upward trend. As a result of yesterday's session, the USD Index fell again and is now trading around 93.230.

Support and resistance

On the global chart, the upward movement develops within a wide upward channel, and the price is very close to the support line. Technical indicators start to reverse. Fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator crossed, and the AO oscillator histogram approached the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.6695, 0.6790.
Support levels: 0.6520, 0.6380.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Brent Crude Oil: the price consolidates

Current trend

Oil prices dropped slightly yesterday and are developing flat dynamics during the first hours of the Friday session. The instrument is still near the level of $45 per barrel but the “bulls” have not yet succeeded in consolidation above this resistance.

This week, some support to the quotes was provided by the data of the report of the US Department of Energy, which recorded another reduction in the stocks of oil and petroleum products in American warehouses. So, for the week of August 7, the figure fell by 4.512 million barrels after falling by 7.373 million barrels in the previous period. Analysts expected a decrease of only 2.875 million barrels.

In turn, pressure on the instrument intensified after OPEC's statements that the cartel expects a decrease in energy demand in 2020 by 9.06 million barrels per day. A month ago, OPEC was counting on a decline of 8.95 million barrels per day.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving flat. The price range expands slightly from above, letting the “bulls” renew local highs. The MACD indicator is slightly declining, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, reacting to attempts to grow the instrument in the middle of the week, reversed upwards.

To open new trading positions, it is better to wait until the signals from technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 45.00, 45.87, 46.49, 47.50.
Support levels: 43.94, 43.00, 41.50, 40.00.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

USD/CAD: the instrument is consolidating

Current trend

During the morning session, the USD/CAD pair shows flat dynamics, consolidating near the local lows of January 2020. At the end of last week, USD rose after the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics but the “bullish” momentum quickly lost its strength. Retail sales rose by 1.2% MoM for July after rising by 8.4% MoM for June. Analysts had expected the value to rise by 1.9% MoM. At the same time, the indicator of the "retail control group" for the same period increased by 1.4% MoM, which was much better than the forecasts of +0.8% MoM.

Canada has pleased investors with an increase in the volume of industrial orders. In June, the index rose by 20.7% MoM after rising by 11.6% MoM in the previous month. Analysts expected the volume to grow by only 16.4% MoM.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands smoothly reverse into a horizontal plane. The price range is expanding from below, letting the “bears” renew local lows. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is showing a similar trend, reversing upwards near the level of 20. The indicator readings signal in favor of the development of the upward trend in the ultra-short term.

The development of corrective growth is possible in the short and/or super short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3400.
Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3150, 1.3100.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is gaining ground against USD during today's Asian session, developing an uptrend in the short term and recovering to its previous record highs updated on August 6. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by technical factors while there are not many new drivers in the market. From the macroeconomic statistics published on Monday, only a nondescript NY Empire State Manufacturing Index can be noted, which in August fell sharply from 17.2 to 3.7 points, while investors expected its correction to 15 points. Today, investors are focused on statistics from the US on the dynamics of retail sales. In addition, with the opening of the US session, traders will pay attention to the data on the housing market for July. Interesting data from the eurozone will appear only on Wednesday, when the July statistics on consumer inflation will be published, as well as a meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council will be held.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading higher against USD during today's morning session, gradually recovering to its previous local highs since early March. USD is under pressure from not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from the United States, as well as the continuing high incidence of coronavirus in the USA. GBP, in turn, reacts negatively to the attempts of the UK authorities to keep the incidence rate within the current values. Earlier it became known that citizens who return to the UK from overseas travel will be forced to be on lock down.

NZD/USD

NZD is trading negatively against USD during today's Asian session, reversing downwards again after a tentative rally earlier in the week. The instrument loses about 0.25%, testing the level of 0.6540 for a breakdown. Macroeconomic statistics released on Monday in New Zealand and the USA turned out to be mixed, but did not bring any noticeable changes to the market dynamics. Business NZ Performance of Services Index in July fell from 54.1 to 53.2 points. The US disappointed investors with the decline in the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, which fell sharply in August from 17.2 to 3.7 points (the forecast assumed a slight decline to 15 points). Today traders are awaiting the release of the New Zealand Global Dairy Price Index data for July.

USD/JPY

USD is significantly declining against JPY during today's Asian trading, continuing to develop a strong "bearish" trend that formed at the end of the last trading week. JPY managed to demonstrate growth on Monday, ignoring the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. The data reflected a sharp decline in Japan's GDP dynamics in Q2 2020 by 27.8% YoY after a 2.2% YoY contraction in the previous period. Market forecasts turned out to be quite accurate, but still suggested a slightly less active decline by 27.2% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the Japanese economy lost 7.8% QoQ against the forecast of –7.6% QoQ.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are relatively stable during today's Asian session and are consolidating near 1990.00 after the active growth of the instrument the day before. The demand for the metal rose again at the beginning of the week, responding to the weak macroeconomic background in the US and Japan. In addition, investors are still rather skeptical about the new economic aid package being developed by US lawmakers. Additional risks are generated by the upcoming US presidential elections, which, obviously, will be held in a tense atmosphere. In turn, it should be noted that some support for USD on Monday was provided by the news that the US and China decided not to consider the results of the implementation of the first phase of the trade agreement concluded at the beginning of the year. Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, China was unable to fulfill its obligations to purchase agricultural products from the USA, but it had quite objective reasons for that.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR has shown slight gains against USD during today's Asian session, trading near record highs, updated the day before, when EUR was supported by USD weakness. Uncertainty around the new package of measures to stimulate the US economy continues to exert powerful pressure on USD. American lawmakers still have not come to a consensus, and investors fear that against this background, the Fed may again begin to soften monetary policy, up to the introduction of negative interest rates. Today, European traders focus on macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation for July. In addition, a meeting of the EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will take place today.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading higher against USD this morning, hitting record highs since the start of the year. The instrument showed steady growth the day before, despite the fact that there were practically no interesting macroeconomic statistics on the market. Moreover, USD managed to get tangible support after the publication of data on the US housing market. Building Permits rose by 18.8% MoM in July after rising by 3.5% MoM in June. Housing Starts in the same period increased by 22.6% MoM, accelerating from 17.5% MoM. Today, GBP may be affected by publications from the UK on the dynamics of producer and consumer inflation in July, and the US will release the minutes of the July Fed meeting.

AUD/USD

AUD is trading flat during today's Asian session, staying in the area of record highs since February 2019, updated the day before. AUD showed moderate gains, taking advantage of the weakness in USD. In turn, the published minutes of the RBA meeting almost did not affect the dynamics of the instrument, since, unlike the Fed, the Australian regulator feels some freedom in its actions. The Fed, according to analysts, is in an unenviable situation, since US lawmakers still have not been able to ensure the adoption of a new bill on financial aid to citizens and businesses. Insignificant pressure on the instrument on Wednesday was exerted by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac Leading Index in July slowed down from +0.5% MoM to +0.05% MoM.

USD/JPY

USD is strengthening against JPY during today's Asian session, correcting after active decline at the beginning of the week. The instrument adds about 0.17% and is testing the level of 105.50 for a breakout. The growth of USD proceeds against the background of strengthening technical factors, as investors close part of their short positions. In addition, the Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Wednesday put some pressure on JPY. Machinery Orders in June unexpectedly declined by 7.6% MoM after an increase of 1.7% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected further growth by 2% MoM. In annual terms, the decline in Machinery Orders accelerated from the previous –16.3% YoY to –22.5% YoY, which turned out to be worse than the forecasts of –17.6% YoY.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are trading with a downtrend during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since August 11, updated the day before. Yesterday, the instrument showed moderate growth, briefly having consolidated above 2000.00 again, against the background of a large-scale weakening of USD in the market. Investors are waiting for qualitative changes from the Fed and US lawmakers, but so far there is very little optimistic news. Moreover, against the backdrop of a difficult epidemiological situation and the upcoming elections in the USA in the coming autumn, the risks of uncertainty increase markedly. Today investors are awaiting the publication of the minutes of the July Fed meeting.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is showing slight gains against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a strong decline the day before, which was triggered by the publication of the last month FOMC Meeting Minutes. The protocols disappointed investors with negative forecasts and the lack of proposals for any specific measures to implement economic and fiscal stimuli. The FOMC members continue to believe that the current epidemic carries long-term risks and can significantly reduce the pace of recovery in certain sectors of the US economy. Wednesday's weak macroeconomic statistics from the euro area put additional pressure on EUR. Consumer Price Index in the euro area fell by 0.4% MoM in July after rising by 0.3% MoM a month earlier. Analysts expected a reduction of 0.3% MoM. Core CPI fell by 0.3% MoM, accelerating the decline from –0.2% MoM.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading with ambiguous dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, located at the level of 1.3100, which was reached against the background of the active decline in GBP the day before. GBP retreated from its all-time highs on Wednesday, in response to the publication of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which helped strengthen USD amid growing worrisome market sentiment. In turn, the macroeconomic statistics from the UK, published yesterday, provided GBP with quite tangible support, thanks to which the instrument renewed its highs. Consumer Price Index in July rose by 0.4% MoM, accelerating from 0.1% MoM in June. Analysts had expected decline by 0.1% MoM. In annual terms, inflation reached 1% YoY, which also turned out to be better than the neutral forecasts of 0.6% YoY. Retail Price Index in July also increased from 0.2% MoM to 0.5% MoM against the forecast of 0.1% MoM.

AUD/USD

AUD is trading ambiguously against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after the correctional decline the day before. The instrument has retreated from record highs since February 2019 amid the publication of the FOMC Meeting Minutes from last month. As expected, the minutes did not bring anything concrete to the market, but disappointed investors with negative forecasts and assessments by the Committee members. First of all, there are still risks of a further slowdown in the American economy amid the epidemiological situation. It is not the first time that the protocols have highlighted the need for new economic and fiscal stimulus, but US lawmakers still cannot agree on the amount of potential assistance to the weakened economy. Today, investors are on the publication of data on the dynamics of jobless claims in the USA.

USD/JPY

USD demonstrates flat trading dynamics against JPY during the morning session, consolidating near 106.00. The active growth of USD, provoked by the emergence of the ambiguous FOMC Meeting Minutes, quickly dried up, and now investors are looking for new drivers for growth. Some pressure on JPY is exerted by the nondescript statistics from Japan on Thursday. Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks for the week ending August 14 rose from JPY 165.5 billion to JPY 371 billion. At the same time, Foreign Bond Investment over the same period fell sharply by JPY 182.2 billion after an active growth by JPY 1.442 trillion over the past week. The most interesting macroeconomic statistics from Japan will appear on Friday, when data on the national Consumer Price Index for July, as well as on the PMI in the manufacturing sector from Jibun Bank for August are released.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are recovering during today's Asian session, partially offsetting the sharp drop the day before. By the end of Wednesday, the instrument showed a confident decline in response to the growth of USD after the publication of the controversial FOMC Meeting Minutes. Investors were disappointed with the published minutes, as they again did not contain any specific measures to stabilize the economic situation in the country. Committee members agreed on the need for more aggressive fiscal stimuli, but US lawmakers have yet to overcome existing differences. The question of the possibility of introducing negative interest rates, judging by the protocols, was not raised at all.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: EUR is recovering

Current trend

EUR is strengthening against USD today, developing the correctional dynamics of Thursday, which replaced the active decline in the instrument on Wednesday amid the publication of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The recovery of EUR is facilitated not only by technical factors, but also by the macroeconomic statistics from the USA published on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 14 increased sharply again from 971K to 1.106M, while analysts expected a further decline in the figure to 925K. At the same time, Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending August 7 fell from 15.48M to 14.844M, which was better than the projected 15M.

Today, European investors are focused on the data on business activity in the euro area for August. Manufacturing PMI is expected to continue moderate growth, while Services PMI is still characterized by negative forecasts.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing from below, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD preserves a moderate downtrend and a previous weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates much more confident dynamics and does not react to the resumption of growth of EUR at the end of the week.

To open new trading positions, it is necessary to wait for the signals from technical indicators to be clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.1914, 1.1964, 1.2000.
Support levels: 1.1850, 1.1780, 1.1700, 1.1657.

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