Morning Market Review
2020-01-20

EUR/USD

EUR is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session and is located near local lows, updated at the end of last week. Last Friday, EUR showed a steady decline, despite the publication of neutral statistics on Consumer Inflation, which fully met market expectations. Consumer Price Index in the euro area in December rose by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM in November. In annual terms, prices remained at the same rate of growth (+1.3% YoY). Traders almost completely ignored weak statistics from the United States. Industrial Production in the USA in December decreased by 0.3% MoM after an increase of 0.8% MoM in the previous month. Experts expected a decrease of 0.2% MoM. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell slightly from 99.3 to 99.1 points in January, which turned out to be worse than neutral forecasts.

GBP/USD

GBP is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument adds about 0.09%, testing the psychological support level of 1.3000 for a breakout. In addition to a number of technical factors, the pound is supported by the publication of data from the UK on House Prices. In January, Rightmove House Price Index showed an increase of 2.3% MoM after a decline of 0.9% MoM last month. YoY, the growth of the index accelerated from 0.8% to 2.7%. It is likely that the trading activity on the instrument at the beginning of the week will remain reduced due to the fact that US markets are closed on Monday due to the national holiday. On Tuesday, investors are waiting for the publication of UK labor market data.

AUD/USD

AUD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a sharp decline at the end of the previous week. The instrument adds about 0.14%, approaching the level of 0.6900. The growth of the pair is mainly due to technical factors. In addition, investors take a lead from weak statistics from the US on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, which was ignored last Friday. On January 23, traders expect the publication of the December report on the Australian labor market, but forecasts for it are still very negative. It is expected that employment growth may slow down by more than 2 times, and the Unemployment Rate will again increase from 5.2% to 5.3%.

USD/JPY

USD shows moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a powerful "bullish" impulse of January 6. The instrument adds about 0.05%, testing the level of 110.20 for a breakout. Pressure on JPY is again exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial Production in Japan in November fell by 8.2% YoY after falling by 8.1% YoY in the previous month. However, investors did not expect a significant improvement in the dynamics of the indicator. In monthly terms, the production rate decreased by 1% MoM after a decline of 0.9% MoM in October. Capacity Utilization in November fell by 0.3% after a decrease of 4.5% last month. Investors expected an increase of 0.7%.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are relatively stable during today's Asian session and continue developing uncertain "bullish" trend, trading near weekly highs. Good macroeconomic statistics from China, as well as the conclusion of a trade agreement between the USA and China, put significant pressure on the instrument, as well as on the demand for safe assets in general. Last Friday, China reported a 6% YoY growth in GDP for the Q4 2019, which fully met market expectations. Meanwhile, Industrial Production in December grew by 6.9% YoY, accelerating from the previous value of 6.2% YoY. Analysts expected a slowdown in production growth to 5.9% YoY.

Morning Market Review
2020-01-22

EUR/USD

EUR is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating at new local lows of December 24, updated the day before. Strong macroeconomic statistics from ZEW released on Tuesday had virtually no effect on EUR. German ZEW Current Situation index in January rose from –19.9 to –9.5 points with a forecast of –13.5 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany for the same period has significantly strengthened from 10.7 to 26.7 points with a forecast of growth of only 15 points. The euro area's ZEW Economic Sentiment index in January also showed strong positive dynamics, rising from 11.2 to 25.6 points, while experts expected a decrease to 5.5 points.

GBP/USD

GBP is declining slightly during today's Asian session, losing about 0.07%. The instrument is corrected after moderate growth yesterday, which, in turn, was caused by relatively positive data on employment in the country. Claimant Count Change in December remained unchanged at 14.9K with a forecast of an increase to 22.6K. Average Earnings Including Bonus in November also kept the previous growth rates (3.2% 3MoY), while experts expected a slowdown to 3.1% 3MoY. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of data on Public Sector Net Borrowing in the UK for December. In addition, traders are waiting for statistics from the Confederation of British Industrialists on Industrial Orders for January.

AUD/USD

AUD has a "bearish" trend against USD during today's Asian session, updating local lows of December 11. The instrument loses about 0.10%, slightly departing from new lows. Moderate pressure on AUD is exerted by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac Consumer Confidence in Australia in January decreased by 1.8% after the decline of 1.9% last month. Experts expected a reduction of only 0.8%. Today, traders' attention will be focused on the publication of the US data, as well as on speeches at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Australian statistics will not appear until Thursday, when the December report on the labor market comes out.

USD/JPY

USD shows strong growth against JPY during today's Asian session, recovering the positions lost the previous day, when JPY increased in reaction to the publication of updated forecasts for GDP growth from the Bank of Japan. The instrument adds about 0.18%, testing the level of 110.00 for a breakout. Inflation in Japan remains extremely low, and the regulator is still looking for ways to stimulate the economy. The Bank of Japan emphasizes that monetary policy will remain soft until it reaches target inflation rates, but recognizes the growing risks associated with a protracted period of low interest rates. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of Retail Sales and Existing Home Sales. Japanese data will appear on Thursday, when the December statistics on the dynamics of Imports and Exports are published.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are decreasing during today's Asian session, losing about 0.35%. The asset returns to the negative trend after controversial trading the day before, when the position of the instrument was supported by the growth of concerns about the spread of coronavirus in China. In addition, investors are responding to continuing uncertainty in the Middle East, fearing the development of new local conflicts. A possible impeachment of Donald Trump also affects the position of the instrument. In turn, support for gold is provided by the approach of the Chinese New Year, as in the pre-holiday period the demand for the precious metal traditionally increases.

Morning Market Review
2020-01-24

EUR/USD

EUR is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session. The pair is consolidating near the level of 1.1050 after a steady decline the day before, which led to the updating of local lows from December 2, 2019. Pressure on EUR on Thursday was exerted by the speech of the ECB President Christine Lagarde, who noted the success of the European economy, but pointed out the continuing downward risks. According to the official, the weak dynamics of production and trade still impedes more confident growth. At the end of this week, investors expect the publication of statistics on business activity from Europe and the USA, so trading activity is likely to remain increased.

GBP/USD

GBP is weakening against USD, again returning to the "bearish" trend after rising since the beginning of the week. At the moment, the decline is due to technical factors; however, the fundamental reasons for the growth of the instrument are becoming less and less. Optimism regarding the final approval of the Brexit deal is quickly waning, and investors are increasingly worried about the process of working out a new trade agreement between the UK and the EU. Today, investors expect publication of statistics on business activity in the UK and the US. According to current forecasts, the British Manufacturing PMI may grow from 47.5 to 48.9 points, and Services PMI can increase from 50 to 51 points.

NZD/USD

NZD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session, trading near weekly highs, updated the day before. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by statistics on consumer inflation in New Zealand for Q4 2019. In quarterly terms, the index slowed down from 0.7% QoQ to 0.5% QoQ, which was only 0.1% QoQ better than market expectations. The annual data reflected a steady increase from 1.5% YoY to 1.9% YoY against the forecast of 1.8% YoY. In turn, weak Credit Card Spending data is holding back the growth of the instrument. In December, the indicator decreased from 4.4% YoY to 3.4% YoY, while the forecast assumed a decrease to 4.3% YoY.

USD/JPY

USD shows a slight increase against JPY during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline the day before, which led to the renewal of local lows of January 9. USD is adding about 0.07%, testing the levels of 109.50–109.60 for a breakout. Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from Japan today. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in January rose from 48.4 to 49.3 points against the forecast of an increase to only 48.7 points. National Consumer Price Index rose from 0.5% YoY to 0.8% YoY in December, which was twice as good as market expectations. National CPI ex Food and Energy accelerated in December from 0.8% YoY to 0.9% YoY, coming close to an important 1% mark.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are showing a slight decline during today's Asian session, correcting after uncertain growth the day before. Support for the instrument is provided by an increase in the demand for safe assets amid continuing uncertainty. Investors are concerned about the new aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and the unclear prospects for the development of trade relations between the United States and China. The UK also adds uncertainty, which, after Brexit at the end of January, should begin rather lengthy negotiations to develop new terms of trade with the European Union. Finally, coronavirus outbreaks in China ahead of Chinese New Year celebrations also force investors to avoid unnecessary risks.

Morning Market Review
2020-01-30

EUR/USD

EUR shows growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a five-day decline, which led the instrument to updating local lows of November 29, 2019. The growth of EUR is largely due to technical factors, while the fundamental background remains ambiguous. Macroeconomic statistics on Pending Home Sales published in the United States turned out to be worse than market expectations, but was lost against the background of the Fed meeting on the interest rate. In December, the indicator decreased by 4.9% MoM after growth of 1.2% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 0.5% MoM. Today, investors expect the publication of a large number of interesting macroeconomic statistics from Europe and the United States. German data on the Unemployment Rate for December will be the first to be released, after which the euro area will unveil a block of indicators on business sentiment for January.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian session, halting the development of the "bearish" trend that formed a week ago. GBP remains under pressure amid growing uncertainty associated with the UK's exit from the EU. Brexit should be completed before the end of January, but then the parties will continue active negotiations as part of the conclusion of a new trade agreement, which will determine how Great Britain will access European markets. A transitional period will operate during 2020, and the UK will continue to comply with European laws. Traders today are focused on the meeting of the Bank of England on the interest rate. It is expected that the monetary policy parameters will remain unchanged; however, the number of votes for a rate reduction may increase from 2 to 3. Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report is also expected to be published.

NZD/USD

NZD is showing an active decline against USD during today's Asian session, updating local lows from December 4, 2019. The instrument loses about 0.25%, preparing to test the level of 0.6500 for a breakdown. The decline of the instrument proceeds against the background of the publication of good macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Export volumes from New Zealand in December rose from 5.21B to 5.54B dollars. Imports for the same period decreased from 6B to 5B dollars. Trade Balance in December showed an increase of 547M dollars MoM, after a decrease of 791M MoM in November.

USD/JPY

USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to develop the downward momentum that formed the day before. The instrument loses about 0.08%, testing the level of 108.90 for a breakdown. Despite the fairly strong USD, the yen continues to be in demand amid growing uncertainty. In particular, the market is still afraid of the spread of coronavirus, which negatively affects economic activity in China, which has just begun to recover from protracted trade wars with the United States. The Fed’s decision, published the day before, in general, fully met market expectations. The rate remained unchanged, and the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, said that operations to purchase securities will continue at least until Q2 2020. At the same time, Powell, as before, did not agree with the phrase "continued quantitative easing". Inflation, according to the head of the Fed, can reach the target level of 2% in the near future.

XAU/USD

Gold prices show moderate growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument adds about 0.15%, testing the level of 1580.00 for a breakout. Quotes are supported by continued market anxiety regarding the spread of coronavirus. In addition, the instrument was supported by expectations of the Fed meeting on the interest rate. Despite the fact that in early January, the regulator did not expect any changes in monetary policy, the market is trying to find clues about further prospects for the interest rate. In turn, pressure on quotes has a steady growth in US stock markets amid strong corporate reporting. The day before, Apple reported revenue growth, reporting the highest quarterly profit in its history.

Morning Market Review
2020-02-03

EUR/USD

EUR is decreasing against USD during today’s Asian session, correcting after sharp growth at the end of last week, which brought the instrument to new local highs of January 23. EUR is losing about 0.07%, testing the level of 1.1080 for a breakdown. The instrument showed growth, despite the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics last Friday. The euro area's GDP in Q4 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ, slowing down from the previous value of 0.3% QoQ. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP growth slowed from 1.2% YoY to 1.0% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of 1.1% YoY. In addition, the Core Consumer Price Index rose by 1.1% YoY in January, correcting downwards from the previous 1.3% YoY with a forecast of 1.2% YoY.

GBP/USD

GBP declines slightly against USD during today's Asian session, correcting down after a confident "bullish" end of the past week. Last Friday, GBP showed strong growth, updating local highs from January 7. At the same time, there were few fundamental reasons for positive dynamics. GBP was most supported by Consumer Credit statistics. December credit volumes rose from GBP 0.653B pounds to GBP 1.218B, which was significantly better than the expectations of 0.914B. Mortgage Approvals for the same period increased from 65.514K to 67.241K with a forecast of 65.7K. Investors are focused on statistics on business activity in the UK and the USA for January.

AUD/USD

AUD is growing against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from record lows updated as a result of a steady "bearish" trend last week. The instrument adds about 0.1% and is testing the level of 0.6700 for a breakout. Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from Australia today. Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.1 to 49.6 points in January, with a neutral outlook. AiG Manufacturing Performance Index in January fell from 48.3 to 45.4 points. Building Approvals issued in December fell by 0.2% MoM after 11.8% MoM growth in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 3% MoM. Currently, traders are preparing for the RBA meeting at the interest rate, which will be held on February 4. The rate is expected to remain unchanged on the level of 0.75%.

USD/JPY

USD is growing against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows of January 8, updated at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.13%, testing the level of 108.50 for a breakout. The growth of the pair is promoted by technical factors, as well as the publication of not the most successful macroeconomic statistics from Japan and China. Japan's Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank in January fell from 49.3 to 48.8 points with a neutral forecast. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI for the same period fell from 51.5 to 51.1 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 51.3 points. With the opening of the American trading session, investors are awaiting the publication of data on business activity from the United States.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are steadily declining during today's Asian session, retreating from updated local highs of January 8. The positive dynamics, supported by the growth of fears regarding the further spread of the coronavirus, gave way to a technical correction, while the fundamental growth factors of the instrument are still very strong. WHO recognized the epidemic as an emergency, which, coupled with the beginning of massive travel restrictions, poses new economic difficulties. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on the US Manufacturing PMI in January.

Morning Market Review
2020-02-05

EUR/USD

EUR is showing a moderate decline against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. However, EUR is only approaching the levels of the opening of trading last Friday, which ended with a steady growth of the instrument. EUR is under pressure from the increasing uncertainty in the market due to the spread of coronavirus. In addition, investors react negatively to a possible worsening of trade relations between the EU and the UK, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson took a rather tough stance and urged to ignore compliance with a number of EU requirements during the transition period (until the end of 2020). During the day, European investors are expecting the publication of statistics Markit Services PMI. A little later, December data on Retail Sales will be released, as well as a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde will take place.

GBP/USD

GBP shows ambiguous trading during today's Asian session, consolidating after a slight increase the day before. GBP updated its local lows on Tuesday, reaching 1.2940, below which the instrument last traded on December 24, 2019, but managed to recover closer to the end of the afternoon session. On Tuesday, GBP was slightly supported by the data on the UK Construction PMI. In January, the index rose from 44.4 to 48.4 points with a forecast of growth of only 46.6 points. In turn, a mixed prospect of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU exert pressure on GBP, as Boris Johnson took a rather tough stance regarding compliance with a number of EU requirements in the transition period.

NZD/USD

NZD is trading near zero during the Asian session on February 5, sluggishly playing back ambiguous statistics on employment from New Zealand. The day before, the instrument managed to reverse the existing "bearish" trend and recorded growth for the first time in 5 trading sessions, which was mainly due to technical factors. Also, moderate support for the pair was provided by data on Building Permits published in New Zealand. In December, the number of permits increased by 9.9% MoM after a decrease of 8.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.3% MoM. New Zealand employment statistics released during today's Asian session indicated a decline in Unemployment Rate from 4.1% to 4%, while the market expected it to rise to 4.2%. At the same time, Employment Change in Q4 2019 showed zero dynamics after an increase of 0.2% QoQ in Q3. Investor forecasts suggested an increase in employment by 0.3% QoQ. Participation Rate over the same period decreased from 70.4% to 70.1%.

USD/JPY

USD is again trading lower against JPY during today's Asian session, slightly offsetting the sharp increase of the previous day. JPY collapsed amid growing fears of the spread of coronavirus, as well as due to new measures by China to support the economy, which generally contributed to increasing interest in risk. Additional support to USD on Tuesday was provided by data from the USA on Factory Orders. In December, the volume of orders increased by 1.8% MoM after a decrease of 1.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 1.2% MoM. Today, investors are focused on Japanese statistics on Services PMI. Jibun Bank Services PMI rose from 49.4 to 51 points in January, which, however, turned out to be slightly worse than market expectations of 52.1 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are recovering during today's Asian session, retreating from new local lows updated the day before. The instrument adds about 0.15% and is about to test the level of 1560.00 for a breakout. The decline in the asset yesterday was due to the strengthening of USD, as well as new measures to support the economy, which China adopted in connection with the further spread of the coronavirus. Positive macroeconomic statistics from the USA on Factory Orders and Economic Optimism index contributed to increased demand for risk, but overall market sentiment remains depressed.

Morning Market Review
2020-02-07

EUR/USD

EUR is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating again after another decline yesterday, which led to the renewal of local lows of October 9, 2019. Investors are disappointed with the publication of Thursday's weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany, and take a lead from the speech of the ECB head Christine Lagarde, from which it became clear that the European regulator is more and more inclined towards new measures to support the euro area's economy. Factory Orders in Germany in December fell by 2.1% MoM after a decline of 0.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.6% MoM. In annual terms, the volume of orders fell by 8.7% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of –6.0% YoY. At the end of the week, traders expect publication of data on industrial production in Germany for December. There is no hope that the statistics will be better than their forecasts, and therefore, most likely, EUR will remain under pressure. With the opening of the American session, the focus will shift to the publication of the January report on the US labor market.

GBP/USD

GBP slightly strengthened against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a two-day decline, which led to the updating of local lows from the end of December 2019. As before, uncertain prospects for concluding a trade agreement between the UK and the EU during 2020 remain the main negative factor for GBP. The position of Boris Johnson is not shared by everyone, but so far he remains adamant and urges him to put the national interests of Great Britain at the forefront. Meanwhile, British Secretary of State for International Trade Liz Truss said that the UK expects to conclude a mutually beneficial trade agreement with the US, Britain’s second largest trading partner.

AUD/USD

AUD continues to decline against USD during today's Asian session, offsetting the growth of the instrument at the beginning of the week. The pressure on the pair is exerted by not the most successful macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as by the relatively strong USD. The instrument loses about 0.19%, preparing to test the level of 0.6710 for a breakdown. AiG Services Index in Australia went down from 48.7 to 47.4 points in January. In addition, today Australia released the minutes of the last meeting of the RBA on the interest rate, which managed to provide some support to the instrument. Among other things, investors focused on good prospects regarding the growth of the Australian economy in the near future. In 2020, GDP should exceed +2.75%, and in 2021 it may exceed 3%.

USD/JPY

USD is showing a slight decline against JPY during today's Asian session, correcting after strong growth since the beginning of the week, which led to the renewal of local highs on the instrument of January 22. USD decline is technical in nature, as traders take their long profits before the weekend. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from Japan remain mixed. Overall Household Spending in December 2019 decreased by 4.8% YoY after a decrease of 2% YoY in November. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the dynamics of the indicator and a decrease of only 1.7% YoY. Coincident Index in December remained at the previous level of 94.7 points against the forecast of growth to 95.9 points. Leading Economic Index for the same period increased from 90.8 to 91.6 points, which turned out to be better than neutral market forecasts.

XAU/USD

Gold prices show flat dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating near three-day local highs after active growth the day before. The instrument was supported on Thursday by the market's concern over the further spread of coronavirus and the consequences that the epidemic has for the global economy. News of China’s reduction in import tariffs on a number of US products under the trade agreement signed in January was virtually ignored. On Friday, investors focus on the publication of the January report on the US labor market. Given the strong results shown by the previously published ADP employment report, expectations are likely to be inflated.

Morning Market Review
2020-02-11

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows flat dynamics, consolidating near new local lows since October 2019, renewed yesterday. EUR is still weakening against the growing dollar, which is in demand amid continued market anxiety regarding the spread of coronavirus. Pressure on the euro is also exerted by the ambiguous prospects of EU-UK trade negotiations, during which the parties should work out a mechanism for UK access to European markets after Brexit. Monday's macroeconomic statistics did not add optimism to the markets. Thus, industrial production in Italy in December fell by 2.7% MoM and 4.3% YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of –0.4% MoM and –0.8% YoY.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading near zero, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. Yesterday, the instrument grew moderately but the increase was due only to technical factors. During the day, British investors expect the publication of a large block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In particular, traders will be interested in December data on the dynamics of industrial production, the country's overall trade balance for December, as well as Q4 2019 GDP. Also, later, the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney will speak in the British Parliament. As for the market forecasts, they do not allow us to expect a significant increase in the pound. Q4 2019 GDP is expected to slow from +0.4% QoQ to +0.0% QoQ.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is actively growing, continuing the development of the correction impulse formed yesterday. Now, the instrument has added about 0.37%, testing the 0.6700 the level of for a breakout. The Australian dollar is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from China and Australia. So, on Monday, traders positively met consumer price growth in China in January. In annual terms, the inflation index accelerated from +4.5% YoY to 5.4% YoY, exceeding most of its forecasts. Today, the Australian currency is positively affected by the national statistics on Home Loans. The total volume of issued mortgage loans for December grew by 3.5% after a decline of 0.8% last month. Analysts had expected growth of only 0.7%. Investment borrowing for the construction of houses in December accelerated from +2.5% to +2.8%.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing, recovering to local highs, renewed at the end of the last trading week. Demand for the yen is supported by growing alarming sentiment in the market but investors currently trust the dollar more. In addition, published macroeconomic statistics from Japan are often ambiguous. So, on Monday, February 10, the released Eco Watchers event forecast index in January fell from 45.5 to 41.8 points with a positive forecast for growth to 47.1 points. The current situation index for the same period, on the contrary, grew stronger than forecasts: from 39.7 to 41.9 points (growth was forecast to reach 40.5 points). There will be a lack of key macroeconomic statistics from Japan during the day, so investors will probably concentrate on data from the USA, where, in particular, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in the US Congress.

XAU/USD

Since the start of the new Forex week, gold prices have been rising moderately, supported by the continuing threats of the further spread of coronavirus. In turn, the strong position of the US currency prevents a sharp renew of local maximums on the instrument. The dollar index is kept close to four-month highs, and also retains prospects for further strengthening. Investors are focused on a two-day speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in Congress. Powell is expected to shed light on the monetary policy of the regulator in the near future. In January, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, citing moderate US economic growth and strong labor market data.

Morning Market Review
2020-02-13

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is slightly falling, trading near record lows since May 2017, renewed yesterday. The euro is under pressure amid rising market concerns about a possible ECB intervention in monetary policy. The regulator is under intense political pressure, which, together with poor macroeconomic statistics and increased trade confrontation with the UK, could lead to lower interest rates in early spring. Macroeconomic statistics published on Wednesday reflected a sharp decline in EU industrial production for December by 2.1% MoM and 4.1% YoY, which was significantly worse than market expectations of –1.6% MoM and –2.3 % YoY On Thursday, investors are focused on the statistics from Germany on consumer inflation. The market expects prices to fall by 0.6% MoM in January and maintain the previous growth rate of +1.7% YoY. The most important statistics for the week will be Friday's publications on the dynamics of GDP in Germany and the EU.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading horizontally, consolidating after corrective growth at the beginning of the week. Now, the pound has lost about 0.04% and is testing the level of 1.2950 for a breakdown. The British currency is still moderately supported by optimistic macroeconomic data released on Tuesday. UK GDP data indicated that the British economy managed to avoid a recession, which reduces the risks of new stimulus measures by the Bank of England. At the same time, trade negotiations with the EU remain in the spotlight, which may well come to a standstill and lead to negative consequences for the economies of both parties. Until the end of the week, there will be few interesting macroeconomic statistics from the UK, so traders are focused on publications from the USA. On Thursday, in particular, the publication of January statistics on consumer inflation in the United States is expected.

NZD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is falling, correcting after yesterday’s sharp increase. Now, the New Zealand dollar has lost about 0.20% and is testing the level of 0.6450 for a breakdown. Yesterday, NZD showed the strongest growth in the last two months, reacting to the RBNZ decision to exclude the possibility of lowering interest rates in the near future. The regulator also informed the market that it expects acceleration of economic growth in the second half of 2020 amid improving global trade conditions and measures of budget support for the national economy.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, offsetting the moderate growth of the instrument on the eve. USD is under moderate pressure of Wednesday’s macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Thus, the monthly budget report indicated a deficit growth from $–13.3 billion to $–33 billion, which was significantly worse than market expectations of $–11.5 billion. In turn, the yen receives little support from Japanese data. The producer price index for goods for January rose by 0.2% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. The domestic price index for corporate goods in January accelerated from +0.9% YoY to +1.7% YoY, ahead of forecasts of +1.5% YoY.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are strengthening, recovering from a moderate decline since the beginning of the week. The instrument is supported by correctional sentiment in the US currency, while gold remains under pressure amid growing demand for risk. Now, the rate has added about 0.37% and is preparing to test the level of 1575.00 for a breakout. Pressure on quotes is also exerted by the weakening of the coronavirus epidemic in the world. The number of new infections is declining markedly, and markets hope that the epidemic will gradually end by March-April this year.

Morning Market Review
2020-02-17

EUR/USD

EUR shows the flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, located close to the record lows of April 2017, updated at the end of last week. Last Friday, investors were focused on ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the euro area and the US, which, given the lowered demand for risk, did not play in favor of EUR. The euro area's GDP in Q4 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ, slowing down from the previous value of 0.3% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP has slowed down from 1.2% YoY to 0.9% YoY, with the forecast of 1.0% YoY. At the same time, Employment Change in Q4 2019 accelerated its growth from 0.1% QoQ to 0.3% QoQ, and the trade balance in December increased its surplus to the level of EUR 22.2B. During the day, investors are waiting for the outcome of the Eurogroup meeting, and also expect to receive new comments from the ECB representative Philip Lane.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading slightly up against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.3050. Investors continue to take a lead from the appointment of a new UK finance minister, who is primarily expected to introduce new fiscal stimulus. Changes in tax policy, in turn, reduce the risk that the Bank of England will be forced to intervene in the situation, which makes GBP attractive for purchase. UK macroeconomic statistics released today slightly supports GBP. Rightmove House Price Index rose by 2.9% YoY in February accelerating from 2.7% YoY. Traders will be focused on the labor market statistics from the UK on Tuesday.

NZD/USD

NZD is showing a moderate decline during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed last Thursday. The instrument loses about 0.08%, testing the level of 0.6430 for a breakdown. Published on Monday, macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand was largely ignored by investors. Visitor Arrivals in New Zealand in December fell by 0.2% YoY after a decline of 3.5% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected a significant increase of 4% YoY. ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge in January reflected a 0.6% MoM and 3.2% YoY increase in prices, which turned out to be slightly better than the previous values of 0.4% MoM and 3.2% YoY.

USD/JPY

USD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating near the level of opening at 109.81. Investors focus on weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan, which puts significant pressure on JPY. Japan's GDP for Q4 2019 collapsed by 1.6% QoQ after growth of 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected negative dynamics, but only at –0.9% QoQ. Industrial production in December fell by 3.1% YoY after a decrease of 3% YoY in November. Capacity Utilization rate in December fell by 0.4% after a decrease of 0.3% in November. The forecasts suggested an increase by 0.2%.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session and are consolidating near local highs at 1584.81, updated at the end of last week. Support for the instrument is still provided by the risk of the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic, which reduces the prospects for global economic growth. Additional support for gold at the end of last week was provided by mixed US macroeconomic statistics. In particular, investors were disappointed with the pace of decline in Industrial Production in January.

EUR/USD

EUR shows a slight correctional growth against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from new three-year lows, updated the day before. The reason for Tuesday's strengthening of the "bearish" sentiment was the extremely weak macroeconomic statistics on Economic Sentiment in Germany from ZEW. ZEW Current Situation index in February fell from –9.5 to –15.7 points with a forecast of a decrease to –10.3 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment index for the same period fell from 26.7 to 8.7 points with a forecast of 21.5 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment index in the euro area also sharply decreased from 25.6 to 10.4 points, contrary to forecasts of growth to 30 points. During the day, investors expect publication of information on the Current Account balance and Construction Output in the euro area for December. Closer to the end of the afternoon session, the focus will shift to the publication of the FOMC Meeting Minutes on the interest rate.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading with ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, continuing to consolidate near 1.3000. Short-term support for the instrument is provided by the expectation of positive changes in the fiscal policy of the UK government after the appointment of the new Minister of Finance Rishi Sunak. Sunak confirmed his intention to introduce the new state budget on March 11, which strengthened optimism in the market. Macroeconomic statistics published on Tuesday turned out to be contradictory and, on the whole, contributed to the development of negative dynamics for the instrument. In December, Average Earnings Including Bonus slowed down from 3.2% 3MoY to 2.9% 3MoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 3% 3MoY. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate remained at the previous level of 3.8%, and Claimant Count Change in January increased from 2.6K to 5.5K, which is significantly lower than market expectations of 22.6K.

AUD/USD

AUD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a sharp decline the day before. The instrument adds about 0.13%, testing the level of 0.6700 for a breakout. Strengthening the "bearish" mood was facilitated by recent statements by Apple representatives who expressed doubts about the ability to implement their original sales plan, set three weeks ago. Apple cites a reduction in production and a decrease in demand in China due to the continued spread of coronavirus. Today's Australian macroeconomic statistics provide insignificant support to the instrument. Westpac Leading Index in January showed an increase of 0.05% MoM after rising 0.01% MoM in the previous month.

USD/JPY

USD is rising against JPY during today's Asian session, approaching the local highs updated on December 12. USD adds about 0.15%, testing the level of 110.00 for a breakout. The development of the uptrend in the instrument today is facilitated by the publication of quite weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Machinery Orders in December fell by 12.5% MoM and 3.5% YoY after rising by 18% MoM and 5.3% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decrease of 9% MoM and 1.3% YoY. Japanese Exports went down by 2.6% YoY in January after decline by 6.3% YoY in the previous month. Imports for the same period decreased by 3.6% YoY after a decline of 4.9% YoY in December. The total Trade Deficit in January reached 1312.6B Japanese yen.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are consolidating during today's Asian session near the new local highs (1600.00) after the active growth of the instrument the day before. Demand for the asset increased markedly on Tuesday after a warning from Apple that the company was unlikely to implement its sales plan due to a reduction in production in China amid the continued spread of coronavirus. On Wednesday, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the USA on Construction dynamics and Producer Price Indices for January. In addition, markets are awaiting the publication of the latest Minutes of the FOMC meeting.

EUR/USD

EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near three-year lows, once again updated on Thursday. Market problems dominate over EUR, which has been showing the worst results since 2015. Negative macroeconomic statistics, the threat of a recession in the German economy, as well as the uncertain prospects for trade negotiations with the UK negatively affect the dynamics of the instrument. At the end of the week, investors expect the publication of statistics on business activity from Europe, but the forecasts again do not promise anything good for EUR. Manufacturing PMI in Germany may fall in February from 45.3 to 44.8 points; Markit Composite PMI may decline from 51.2 to 50.8 points. In addition, on Friday, traders expect the publication of January statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area.

GBP/USD

GBP demonstrates the development of a technical correction against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument adds about 0.08%, testing the level of 1.2890 for a breakout. The decline in the instrument is due to the growth of USD across the entire market, while optimism regarding the appointment of a new finance minister in the UK is gradually fading into the background. Moreover, GBP ignores quite good macroeconomic statistics coming out of the UK recently. On February 19, the market ignored strong data on consumer inflation. Yesterday's Retail Sales data only briefly hindered the decline in GBP. In January, Retail Sales grew by 0.9% MoM after a decline of 0.5% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.7% MoM. Today, investors are focused on statistics on business activity from Markit in the UK in February.

AUD/USD

AUD declines against USD during today's Asian session, updating record lows of March 2009. The decline in the instrument proceeds against the backdrop of the steady growth of USD, which looks more profitable against the backdrop of European problems and the uncertainty surrounding the pace of development of the world economy. Additional pressure on AUD is still exerted by the Australian labor market report for January published on Thursday. Employment Change in the country grew by 13.5K jobs after an increase of 28.7K over the past period. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in January unexpectedly increased significantly from 5.1% to 5.3% with a forecast of 5.2%. Friday's data from Australia also cannot help the instrument recover. Commonwealth Bank’s Services PMI fell in February from 50.6 to 48.4 points, with growth forecast to 52.4 points. Composite PMI in February fell from 50.2 to 48.3 points.

USD/JPY

USD shows a correctional trend against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating near the local highs of April 2019, which the instrument managed to update due to the steady growth of USD over the past two days. JPY remains under pressure amid talk of a possible recession in the Japanese economy. In addition, there is a marked increase in investor interest in risk in the market amid some stabilization of the situation with the spread of coronavirus. Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Friday also do not provide any support for JPY. The National Consumer Price Index excluding Food and Energy rose by 0.8% YoY in January, slowing down from the previous value of 0.9% YoY. Jibun Bank's Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.8 to 47.6 points in February, with a positive forecast for growth to 49 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices show steady growth during today's Asian session, updating record highs of February 2013. The quotes are supported by the continuing uncertainty surrounding the further spread of the coronavirus. Despite all the efforts of the Chinese authorities, as well as the relatively stable statistics of cases, investors are extremely sensitive to any new cases recorded outside of China. Additional support for gold is provided by a significant decrease in JPY, as some investors looking for a safe haven in Japanese currency are now more willing to invest in gold. Today investors are focused on the publication of American statistics on business activity from Markit for February. In addition, the markets expect the Fed representatives, such as Lael Brainard, Loretta Mester, and Richard Clarida to speak today.